Sports Illustrated put out predictions and Chris Mannix has OKC winning 60 games and losing in the NBA Finals. Now that’s some hype: “Oklahoma City’s dream ride comes to an end at the hands of the experienced Celtics, but the NBA will relish a series played in front of two of the league’s most vociferous home crowds.”
Speaking of hype, ESPN’s experts predicted awards yesterday and Kevin Durant dominated the MVP vote, Jeff Green, James Harden and Serge Ibaka got a handful of Most Improved votes, Scott Brooks got another Coach of the Year vote and Ibaka was also tabbed as Defensive Player of the Year by J.A. Adande. I think the phrase you’re looking for is “I’m so excited, I’m so excited, I’m so… scared.” Yeah, that sums up the season nicely again.
Oh and a little more: Bill Simmons has Boston over OKC in six in the NBA Finals, and the Thunder finishing with 62 wins, tops in the West.
The Thunder got 16 of 25 votes to win the Northwest.
Rahat Huq, writing for Hardwood Paroxysm, on KD and LeBron: “Why such need for narrative? Why the penchant for a plotline? Durant is a precocious marvel independently deserving of plaudits; placing him juxtaposed is an injustice to Durant. Reproach of James—while irrational and unwarranted–should hold on its own free from comparison. It’s a failure of our discourse and a flaw of our collective logic that “unlike _____” is inevitably appended in our process of argumentation. Ours is a troubling worldview, pitting evil against good, leaving us sadly directionless in its void, unknowing of whom to embrace. We need a good guy to hate the bad, and if the former is yet to exist, he is created, sculpted by hand to fit the mold required. We’ve anointed our white knight in Durant to save what had been lost, rejected by 23. Peculiar.”
A Thunder preview from WEEI with a contribution from me.
Zach Lowe of The Point Forward on James Harden and Serge Ibaka: “The Thunder are receiving almost — almost – as much hype as the Heat, and many experts have OKC as the sole Western Conference team with a real chance to knock off the Lakers in a seven-gamer. To do that, the Thunder will need more interior production on both ends, and that’s where Ibaka, the team’s most athletic big man and best shot-blocker, must take a step forward. They’ll also need a shooting guard who can provide some of the defense Thabo Sefolosha brings while acting as the offensive threat Sefolosha will never be. Harden should be that guy. If he’s not playing crunch-time minutes in late April, I’ll be disappointed.”
Jerry Zgoda has OKC tops in the West: “Normally you would say the Thunder should regress after last season’s stunning surge, but Kevin Durant isn’t normal. Neither is Russell Westbrook, for that matter.”
USA Today asks if OKC is ready to really contend: “Definitely. The Thunder probably are a year away, but depending on how the season breaks, Oklahoma City is good enough to make it happen now. The Thunder not only have youth with scoring champ Durant and point guard Russell Westbrook but also depth and a desire for playing lockdown defense.”
Ken Berger of CBS Sports has predictions.
A prediction from Both Teams Played Hard: Jeff Green will be traded.
Portland fans are annoying and condescending, but I don't think that fan base should have to endure a situation where they pick Oden, take 4 years of abuse for it, and then we sign him and he plays 82 games a season for the next 10 years. They suffered through the Bowie issue, I think they paid their dues.
But from a basketball only perspective, yes, we should sign him - even if he gets the Yao Ming treatment and only plays 20 minutes a game.
I am guessing that some combo of defensive slippage, injuries, being better known and now the hunted will slightly overpower player development and the new guys for the Thunder this season and produce slightly less wins. But it is just a guess.
65 games and 28 minutes per game might be too high to expect but 50+ games and 20+ minutes? I'd give him around 50% chance for that. Not sure how good he'll be though.
Sammy :
Hypothetical for you guys:
Lets say Greg Oden plays 65 games this year. Plays them well, 28 minutes per game, limited by foul trouble, but otherwise produces at levels similar to last year (when he was great when he was on the floor). Would you want to sign him next summer and for how much?
FWIW, I think a healthy Greg Oden making incremental progress in his game from last year (including a reduction in foul rate) makes this team an instant title contender if not title-favorite. Obviously, history tells us that it’s not exactly wise to count on a healthy Greg Oden.
This seems beyond improbable, on so many levels. But Durant-Oden would make for a juicy story nonetheless.
Allen paid pretty heavily on Roy and Aldridge but given the market it may have been necessary to go as high as he did. Oden is at a disadvantage right now but next summer he might have somebody ready to go to a Roy level contract or higher. It gets tricky with the cap, egos, agents etc.
In his first playoffs he fell off on most everything but you probably shouldn't overdo the concern from it. But if he can't do it up to near regular season standards in the playoffs next time that would hurt his price quite a bit.
@Sammy
How much I'd pay for Oden would depend in part on whether the NBA insurance partner agrees to offer insurance on him or use one of their chits to exclude his contract and the attitude of the owner toward winning and wasted money.
If Oden does what you suggest and does as well in the playoffs then I'd think Paul Allen will offer at least $10-12 million a year, maybe 3 years and an option. Would someone else offer more and force the issue? Probably (because they want to win or just to force Allen to pay) and he probably matches.
@DXL
Im a writer, english major, seen some pretrentious wordy shit. Yes, he is an excessively pretentious writer. Too much abstract philosophical nonsense. Signs of the amateur.
Hypothetical for you guys:
Lets say Greg Oden plays 65 games this year. Plays them well, 28 minutes per game, limited by foul trouble, but otherwise produces at levels similar to last year (when he was great when he was on the floor). Would you want to sign him next summer and for how much?
FWIW, I think a healthy Greg Oden making incremental progress in his game from last year (including a reduction in foul rate) makes this team an instant title contender if not title-favorite. Obviously, history tells us that it's not exactly wise to count on a healthy Greg Oden.
The Nuggets prediction could depend a lot on Anthony and what they get back; but I am guessing unless they do a dump trade they will be alright, just not at their max.
@Greg
Thanks for the feedback.
I agree Portland is volatile but I think my prediction for them has both a chance to be exceeded or to be too high. I guess I took mid or upper-middle on them. Being above or below the pack of prediction here and there is part of the game.
It is hard to sort the near 30 win teams into above or below. I didn't spend a whole lot of time on them or any of it. I poked around a bit and quit as soon as I could. They are fairly holistic estimates. I didn't sweat every detail.
@Crow
Not worried much about the plethora of Portland issues heading into the season? I like your Utah pick though, a top 3 finish would certainly surprise some, but I think they can be as good as last year's team. I think Washington and Philly win more than Toronto. I think Kings and Clips reach the 30-mark. I think Houston struggles as well, 43 seems look a good number. It's pretty tough to estimate a win total for the Nuggets at this point.
That is how I have it due to competition but I have a history of being a bit low on top teams.
@Crow
55 wins takes the West?
I ended up going with 47 for the Thunder
here is the whole set of predictions
Atlanta 46
Boston 56
Charlotte 35
Chicago 47
Cleveland 37
Dallas 47
Denver 46
Detroit 25
Golden State 38
Houston 43
Indiana 33
LA Clippers 29
LA Lakers 55
Memphis 42
Miami 63
Milwaukee 42
Minnesota 27
New Jersey 25
New Orleans 39
New York 33
Oklahoma City 47
Orlando 61
Philadelphia 29
Phoenix 44
Portland 53
Sacramento 28
San Antonio 50
Toronto 29
Utah 53
Washington 28
@dream catcher
Ha! Well played sir! Sarcasm is very hard to pull off in print.
Well, if we only loose 9 games at home, with the same road record, we would have been the #2 seed last year. However, there west was as even last year as it has ever been. The 2009-2010 season is the only one in the last 10 years that the 8th seed had 50 wins, and 55 wins for the #2 seed was the lowest. So if the west is even more equal, and no team will dominate apart from the Lakers, then we could be the #2 seed, but if history holds, then getting beyond the #5 seed will be more difficult than last year. With all the injuries, teams like Dallas, Portland, Spurs, didn't beat up on easy competition like we did, so it brought down their record, I don't think its that easy this year. I think we make it to the #4 seed, if denver trades Anthony, otherwise we are the #5 seed, with around 50 wins.
@KingGondo. Oh ok that makes a lot more sense.
@ThunderHorn
I think they will improve as well but I think making the leap from 8th seed to runner up is a bit much. This team is still extremely young and most of the long-term key guys aren't even off their rookie contracts yet.
I think they take another step forward 4th seed and homecourt advantage in the 1st round and WINNING is what I'm thinking.
@qrex
The 23-59 record didn't tell the entire story. They were 3-29 or something going into January 2010 and then finished 20-30. Thats .400 ball over the last 50 games. They play that way over an entire season and thats about 32-33 wins.
I guess it just depends on how you viewed the team last year. I felt before the season that they were a playoff team. Most felt 30-35 wins was the likely outcome and they were lottery bound for at least another season if not 2 more.
@qrex
No, that's not how I meant it. More along the lines of someone trying to steal your joy by telling you what to think, or being the first to say it, or spoiling your surprise on purpose, or any number of things that aim to ruin your fun.
Like that kid who can't hear your story without topping it with a story of his own that's somehow bigger and better than yours (true or not).
You know, hype being the whole "you can't have fun unless this happens" sort of attitude.
man this thunder hype is getting out of hand. im just looking forward to seeing the guys playing ball again. with no injuries of course. no one likes those.
holdmymartian :
Bill Simmons thinks the Thunder will beat the CELTICS!?!? In the FINALS!?!? He’s off his rocker.
Czzz over Thunder, actually.
Royce - nice quote from Jessie Spano!
Anonymous :Simmons is king of the thunder hype machine. 62 wins, really?
Presti has him on the payroll.
Bill Simmons thinks the Thunder will beat the CELTICS!?!? In the FINALS!?!? He's off his rocker.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Something can't be enjoyable unless you are not expecting it?
Hype is that kid you knew in grade school that purposefully told you about the surprise party your parents were throwing you. He gets to be the bearer of surprise, and you get to be disappointed when the real thing doesn't surprise you.
Hype is that same kid who tells you what he got you for your birthday right before you get the chance to unwrap it.
Hype is the popular kid in school that everyone talks about, and whatever that kid says is cool, that's what's cool, and you're totally uncool if you disagree. So in a way, that kid is basically telling you what you can and can't enjoy.
Don't let the hype ruin your fun.
I think the Thunder can be a better team this year and have a worse record than last year. Unless a superstar on another team goes out with a long term injury, the West is tougher this year than last year IMO. I'd be happy with 48 wins.
My favorite line from that BothTeamsPlayedHard predictions thread wasn't even a prediction. It was a "fact."
"...the fact that George Hill is a future Hall of Famer..."
ThunderHorn :
The hype of the Thunder is insane. 1st place in the West? Reaching the finals? Wow. I love this team’s potential as much as anyone but making the leap from 8th seed to losing in the NBA finals seems a bit ridiculous.
And going from 23 wins to 50 is ...?
If we discount the two worst periods last year (up to 13-14, and 2-4 to limp into the playoffs), the Thunder played on a 60 win pace. I realize you can't discount the bad and not discount the good (9 game winning streak), but still. Also, I really believe this group will improve instead of resting on the accolades of last year.
The hype of the Thunder is insane. 1st place in the West? Reaching the finals? Wow. I love this team's potential as much as anyone but making the leap from 8th seed to losing in the NBA finals seems a bit ridiculous.
I'm guessing a lot of the hype is coming from people that expected the Thunder to be a lottery team again last year and OKC ended up being an enormous surprise in their eyes.
As an Oklahoma Sooner fan I have had to learn the hard way not to let hype take hold. I've sold myself on a bit of a slide for the Thunder, somewhere in the neighborhood of 48-50 wins. However, I also think that willl be enough for a playoff spot..... where the sky is the limit!!!
I'm with DXL. Huq's writing style is slightly more abrasive than a wood-chipper
I'm glad I just enjoy watching our guys compete. These predictions and expectations are getting ridiculous. Sure, I'd love that to happen, but seriously, I think "they" are getting ahead of themselves. Let's get our boys to win a playoff series first before they stick us in the finals...
Don't link to Rahat Huq, he's a terribly pretentious writer: "It’s a failure of our discourse and a flaw of our collective logic that 'unlike _____' is inevitably appended in our process of argumentation." He thinks he's writing well but he's puking on the English language.
That Rockets blog he writes is so boring and overintellectualized.
Watch 'em run amuck
Catch them as they fall
Never know your luck when there's a free for all
Here a little dip
There a little touch
Most of them are goners so they won't miss much
Tomorrow we'll discover what our God in Heaven has in store
One more dawn
One more day
One day more!
I've said it before, but hype will ruin your fun. Just enjoy the experience of watching these guys play. It's fun to watch a team win 50-ish games. Just remember that.
@Lefty
And myself, I identify with Zgoda's quote.
Scared that the hype is getting a little excessive. I think predicting 55-56 wins is pretty reasonable, but even then a lot of things need to go right.
If Harden develops into a 15 PPG type of guy, and Ibaka continues to get better, and Aldrich becomes the interior force we need, and Collison comes back healthy, and Westbrook starts averaging 9-10 APG, and Durant is a true MVP contender, and we become a better home team, and we win most of our close games (with help from a few game-winners from KD)...
Then yes, 60 is possible. But that's a lot of "ifs."
Ready for the predictions to stop and see what we do. ONE MORE DAY!
All this hype is starting to really stress me out. I'm trying very hard to keep my expectations set at another 50 win run to the playoffs and winning a first round series so anything beyond that will just be gravy, but all these crazy finals predictions are making that a bit more difficult.
That USA Today blurb is exactly how I feel about this team.
I've always liked Bill Simmons