Daily Thunder.com Where Jeff Green is good

Last night against Charlotte, Jeff Green went 9-14 from the floor and 5-7 from 3. He finished with 25 points and it was one of those nights where Uncle Jeff can show off how good he can be offensively.

In his notes, Darnell Mayberry talked about how it was a one-or-the-other type performance from Green, with Uncle Jeff either chucking a 3 or driving to the rim. All the in-between, mid-range stuff didn’t work. And Mayberry wondered what Green’s career looked like from mid-range. So I looked it up.

	AT RIM	<10 FEET	10-15 FEET	16-23 FEET	THREES
2008	61.0	43.0	26.0	32.0	27.6
2009	61.0	40.0	39.0	32.0	38.9
2010	64.6	48.2	32.4	33.0	33.3
TOTAL	62.2	43.7	32.5	32.3	34.8

It’s pretty obvious that on long 2s, Uncle Jeff isn’t good. A long 2-pointer is the worst shot in basketball, but it doesn’t mean it’s always a bad one. Sometimes you’re open. But for Green, a player like kind of likes to hover around the 3-point line, settling for that long 2 instead of maybe driving or going into the post, isn’t the smartest thing.

For instance, let’s look at how the Thunder used Green last season via Synergy Sports:

Green had 158 plays in transition meaning he runs the floor well, but in terms of posting him, running him off screens or having him cut, OKC does little of that. Clearly it’s about spotting up and clearing out for Green. And when you’re a good shooter, those things are great. When you’re hitting 5-7 from 3, it’s beautiful. But Green hasn’t proven that kind of consistency from deep and he’s shown he’s a really good finisher at the rim.

In post-ups for example, Green scores almost 45 percent of the time. In spot-ups, he drops to 37 percent. In isolation, it’s 40 percent. And in terms of how Green’s getting those 3-point attempts, 71.6 of them are on spot-ups (he shoots 33.1 percent on spot-up 3s). Only five percent came off screens, but Green hit 52 percent from deep on those. Kind of a small sample size there to draw a ton of conclusions, but interesting nonetheless.

Jeff Green just isn’t a mid-range player. Some might say he’s not really a 3-point threat, but one season of nearly 40 percent says he at least deserves a little more time out there. But it’s all in how he’s getting his looks. As he showed last night against a good defensive team, when called upon, Green can score the ball.

A lot of times he fades into the background offensively because he can. With Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant handling most of the duties, Green looks to sort of hover and wait for spots to score. Which is absolutely fine with me, as long as he cranks it up in other areas and stays consistent with what he’s good at.

50 comments

Newest | Oldest

Seattle Basketball

Check out this 12 year old phenom Jashaun Agosto. Hopefully OKC drafts him to succeed Westbrook. lol

Crow

@Ian Levy

Looks like Green's shooting cost the team about 1.1 points per game compared to average efficiency his rookie season, 0.3 in 08-09 and 0.4 last season. I knew it would be low but I am a bit surprised it is that low. His defense is probably by far the biggest impact issue, followed by rebounding.

Make that the whole point of Adjusted +/- is theoretically and ideally to not be dependent on your back-up. If you only have one substitute there can be some extra issues. But the Thunder had several at PF.

@Truth

Adjusted +/- is not dependent on your back-up. Raw +/- is.

Ian Levy

I've been working with a stat called Expected Points at my site, Hickory-High.com and I used those numbers to take a look at Green's scoring from different areas of the floor.

Expected Points uses a player's FGA from each area of the floor and multiplies it by the average number of points scored on that type of shot to come up with an expected point total from that area. The Expected Point total can than be compared to the actual number of points a player scored from that area t arrive at a Point Differential. This point differential is an expression of how a player shot compared to the league average but I like that the comparison is drawn with actual point totals.

Having an obvious relation, my Expected Scoring numbers for Green closely mirror the FG% by location breakdown shown above. He is fairly inefficient on mid and long range jumpers and there doesn't appear to be any consistent trend towards improvement. Getting him the ball on the move and close to the basket seems like the only surefire way to create efficient scoring opportunities for him. Here's the link to my expected scoring breakdown if anyone is interested:

http://hickory-high.com/2010/10/08/expected-scoring-jeff-green/

Truth

@Crow

We'll in fairness, Green's replacement was Ibaka. So with Ibaka starting, it could give us a more accurate plus minus.

Keith

@DizzyDai
Durant is primarily a defensive rebounder, which is an area of weakness for the team. Next to a strong rebounding big man, removing much of that weakness, Durant isn't likely to pull down as many boards without an increase in pace.

@DizzyDai
Durant's rebounding isn't tremendously better than Green's, actually, he just never gets off the floor, so he has much more opportunity. Also, Green's rebounding is abysmal, so just being better than Green isn't saying a whole lot. He's a better blocker, but blocks are often like steals, they don't nearly tell the story of a player's defense.

@justin
If he evolves his game in that direction, so be it. As of right now, I don't think that's the way it's going, especially with the way we utilize him at the 2 in a big lineup. Perhaps you have the numbers, as I'm going more on the eye test, but he only seemed to play PF when we were going small or the PF was an offensive non-factor. In both cases it is very hard to judge his PF-ability properly. Small-ball especially was funky - Green's most positive position was C, despite the fact that we all know he could never be a full time C.

KD is similar to Dirk in their games, but Dirk isn't as quick or explosive as KD. He plays PF because he isn't out-sped by PFs/Cs as much and has the bulk to hold up in the post. KD's athletic advantage makes him much more of a threat at SF, where he can utilize his size advantage without a defensive drop-off. And again, playing the wing minimizes impact on his lanky frame some. Not likely to be an issue in the near future, but it doesn't hurt to keep his window of production open as long as possible.

DizzyDai

KD is a much better rebounder and blocker than Green already.

Green seems to have a better dribble (which is odd since he is the same height as Durant, but has shorter arms)

@justin

So if KD magically develops into a PF over this season would you consider letting Green stick around? ;)

justin

@Keith

I don't think it'll be a patchwork job down the road, I'm thinking KD's game will evolve more towards that of a PF. I think he's got the size to guard most PF's and as the seasons go on he'll have the experience.

@justin
I think Durant would present a lot of the same problems as Jeff. Unless his rebounding or post defense make major leaps, Durant would be much more of a one-way player. Not to mention, if he indeed guards PFs consistently, it likely creates more wear and tear on his body as he is forced to muscle around in the post much more often. I would rather we find a true big man to fill that spot rather than patchworking Durant and Green long term (which hopefully Ibaka will make unnecessary).

@DizzyDai

Durant's longer than the average NBA PF.

justin :
If anything Durant should move to PF not SG. I think he’ll be a PF within the next few seasons, actually.

I've been thinking the same myself. Then again he'd loose that height advantage.

If anything Durant should move to PF not SG. I think he'll be a PF within the next few seasons, actually.

f5alcon

@Robert
Durant at SG worked out so well the last time we tried it. Durant is the better player, he should play his natural position.

Robert

Jeff Green is a natural forward with an emphasis on the small forward position. That position is occupied by Kevin Durant an adjustment can be made if Durant moves to the backcourt and move Serge Ibacka or Nick Collison to power forward. This move gives the team more size. Harden can be used as a sixth man and the Thunder should improve their bench this year. Remember they gave the Lakers hell.

I'd prefer the bullets. The wizards sound so weak.

Kivman

New owner considering going back to Bullets. DC polling finds it more popular than Wizards (seems relevant to the discussion).

Jeff

Use it. Sorry about the typo, I am typing this on my phone.

@Ozark
I've been calling him that amongst my friends ever since he was assigned #45 with the thunder. But, with my competitive shooting background I see cartridge references in too many things. For a center, it is still a nice moniker, but if he was a shooter he would have to us it.

Sammy

@Ozark
The Bullets changing their name to the Wizards was an ownership decision, not a League mandated one. Abe Pollin was uncomfortable owning a team called the Bullets in a city with a high crime rate, and he decided to change it after his friend, Yitzhak Rabin, was assassinated.

Cpt. C-note :
I was drinking the Kool-aid on the Rubio bandwagon. Like many things…I was premature

usually you dont brag about that problem,lol

Cpt. C-note

I was drinking the Kool-aid on the Rubio bandwagon. Like many things...I was premature ;)

Ozark

Cole 45 would have to be an "unofficial nickname" only though, they wouldn't even let Washington be "Bullets" anymore. Good thing too, if they didn't change their name to the Wizards, it might have resulted in gunplay incidents in the locker room.. Never mind..

I doubt they would even let him get away with using his hands in a "pistols firing" motion.

If he shows enough to develop a cult following, I guess you could have unofficial Cole 45 shirts made up thru DT. It might be cool to make it look like the malt liquor logo, too.

yeah he chose 45 on purpose for that reason, just like krilenko chose 47

@Ozark
Cole 45 is the winner.

These special KDIIIs are pretty sick:
http://www.nicekicks.com/2010/09/nike-zoom-kd-iii-nba-elite-11/

I just thought of the most obvious nickname for Cole Aldrich ever..

He wears #45 so obviously he is "Cole 45".

Of course the NBA won't let anyone get away with any firearm reference, no matter how benign, so I guess I'm gonna stick with "Stone Cole"

its still just one game, now i have said for awhile i thought rubio was going to be a bust, but until he actually comes over i cant declare that i was right

I guess I might have been wrong about Ricky.

Jax Raging Bile Duct

Poor Rubio was probably just overwhelmed with the sheer speed and quickness that Derek has.

@justin
im so glad we didnt draft him, wolves are probably kicking themselves for not drafting curry

Ricky Rubio was 0-5 with 3 assists 4 turnover and 3 fouls going up against hall of fame point guard Derek Fisher.

green is playing for a big contract, so hopefully he is more aggressive about it. if we extend him we should have a clause for a bonus if he shoots 40% from 3, maybe a bunch of other performance based clauses

ThunderHorn

When Jeff Green is good is when he is aggressive and isn't hesitant. Last year no matter what he was doing he was hesitating and unsure of himself.

I would like to see what he could so in some high post, kind of how Boris Diaw is used.

Also hoping that his 1 dribble/2 dribble J was just off last night. Having that would make him tough to defend b/c then teams couldn't just sag off and let him clang 3's all night. You sag off, he takes 1 or 2 dribbles pulls up and scores. Forces 4's out to guard him then he can use his quickness to blow by them.

For what it is worth to anyone else, if any, Defensive Adjusted +/- has Dudley a mild positive and Green a medium to large negative. Green's negative was medium for career, larger last season, when he played a bit more PF than before and way more with Krstic. Meanwhile the team as a whole got way better last season and team with him off the court was better. But what happens from here is what matters most.

I'd personally take any increase in Green 3's if they come from previous tendency to shot from mid-range and they aren't crazy rushed or contested. I wouldn't generally be in favor of more total shots from him unless he got better on eFG%, TS% and Offensive Rating. I'd probably prefer his shots go down a bit but I'd probably wait 20 games to see how he and everybody else was doing before getting very prescriptive.

green needs to cut his attempts, he is a good passer, so he may be better off trying to drive and kick to open players. 300 attempts is way too many, even if he was shooting 40% id rather have him shoot 200 times from 3 and be more selective.

The last two seasons for Green's 3P% are different enough that I have trouble determining what he might do this year. If he does as you suggest, and hits 37% on 250+ attempts, then this is the company he might keep (based on last year's performances only)...

1 Jared Dudley
2 Channing Frye
3 Paul Pierce
4 Brandon Rush
5 Rashard Lewis
6 Troy Murphy
7 Danilo Gallinari
8 Peja Stojakovic
9 Hedo Turkoglu
10 Andrea Bargnani

That's quite a mixed bag. You've got unique offensive systems, great rebounders, awful rebounders, shooters only, great defenders, awful defenders... I mean this group really runs the gambit.

We have said before, and Justin said it earlier, that if Green shoots 40% from 3 he could be a positive at the PF position. If so, Dudley is his best option since they both play pretty good defense. I just don't see Green rebounding at Troy Murphy's rate. Not sure if I'm really all that impressed with the rest of that list except for Paul Pierce.

@justin
We could benefit a lot from the utah motion offense, just freeing up out players without the ball, they tend to stand around too much, and thabo, harden, could do really well with backdoor cuts.

@Jax Raging Bile Duct

You did say "I wondered what kind of company he might keep.."

"might keep" was the right phrasing in my view.

Putting aside his rookie season Dudley has been above 37% every season since. Pierce 8 of 12. Rush 2 for 2. Lewis 9 for 10 after he hit 21 yrs old.

Green is only 1 for 3 season above 34%. But put aside his rookie season also and make it 2 for 3 by going above at least 37% again this season and I would take that as a pretty good sign. But until he does it again, his track record to date is not as strong as those 5.

The Thunder really should track the number of possessions where a specific play was run and got a desired shot vs plays that were looser than that definition or broke down. Maybe they do. I'd like to see those results for several reasons. To see what % of possessions they think they ran a specific play to completion and how different the results are. Maybe loose works as good or better than called plays, maybe not. But even if loose were better there are at least 2 ways to react to that- the guys are better suited to loose or the plays are not that good, need to be better.

Green 2008 - 247 3PA - .389%
Green 2009 - 312 3PA - .333%

IF Green could shoot about 40%, I wondered what kind of company he might keep - so I looked up last year.

http://goo.gl/w0SD

For single seasons, in the regular season, in 2009-10, primary career position F, requiring 3-Pt Field Goal Pct >= 0.390 and 3-Pt Field Goal Attempts >= 250, sorted by descending 3-Pt Field Goal Pct.

1 Jared Dudley
2 Channing Frye
3 Paul Pierce
4 Brandon Rush
5 Rashard Lewis

If he can hit 30% of a 3 attempt it beats the average results of most of the other options. The main reasons to take a shot other than a 3 is if you are covered so well you can't shoot at least 30% or you can get a shot that you can hit above 50% considering the increased risk of turnovers when you put it on the floor or foul shots.

The league averages for all players and for forwards playing 20+ minutes a game are 44% <10 FT and about 40% from 10-15 FT and 16-23 FT. Green is well below average from 10-23 feet and there is little sign of that changing. Total shots from at the rim to 23 feet went from 5.2 per game in 07-08 to 5.8 in 08-09 to a low of 5.0 last season. That is a sign of some adjustment but it might rise this season, playing for the next contract, trying to get big offensive numbers. But it would be wise to get this under 4.

Too many mid-rangers is the bail-out side consequence of pressure to drive beyond the ability and good opportunity to do so. For all the praise of the Thunder's inside shots and free throws, you have to discount them somewhat for the excessive mid-rangers that have gone along with that. You can reduce mid-range bail-out shots if you use better judgment or make better kick-back passes- or have a better system and specific good play designs. Relying on just "principles" is probably not enough.

Royce with a sure-fire popular article. Two things everyone loves to bash... long 2's and Jeff Green.

I'm also a fan of Jeff's low post game to some extent. He's quite effective with that hook shot from 8 ft.

Excellent post.

Green has great hands and he's a decent finisher at the rim. I wish we'd incoporate more planned motion and cutting into the offense because he'd probably benefit a lot from it. Kind of how the Jazz use Paul Millsap.

Due to some of his disadvantages defensively and on the boards, he just has to be an effective offensive threat. The Lakers practically stopped guarding him on the perimeter. If he can hit ~40% of his threes and find way to at least attract defensive attention, I think he could be an overall positive at PF.

He is a versatile player in that he's quick and strong with some range, but we don't use him like he's versatile in our offense. He's basically a spot up threat and a threat in transition and that's it. He could be very effective if he's put into position moving towards the basket but I guess Brooks doesn't care much about offense.

My most hated play last year: Jeff catches the ball on the perimeter, defender closes out, Jeff pump fakes, takes one or two dribbles steps in, defender partially recovers and Jeff launches a contested 20 footer. JUST SHOOT THE BALL ON CATCH OR DRIVE!

(It's not just Jeff that does this; a lot of NBA players do)

Trackbacks

Expected Scoring – Jeff Green « Hickory High says:

October 8, 2010 at 1:41 pm

[...] Scoring – Jeff Green Jump to Comments Royce Young at DailyThunder had a post yesterday focusing on Jeff Green’s scoring strengths and weaknesses from different areas of the floor. [...]
global seo consultant says:

May 30, 2012 at 4:55 pm

… [Trackback]…

[...] Informations on that Topic: dailythunder.com/2010/10/where-jeff-green-is-good/ [...]…

Where Jeff Green is good

Trackbacks

Headlines