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Diagnosing what ails James Harden

by Royce Young on November 29, 2010 at 12:56 pm 34 Comments

Gary Dineen/NBAE/Getty Images

James Harden was the third overall pick. He was an All-American at Arizona State, all Pac-10 both years there and won Pac-10 Player of the Year as a sophomore. He averaged over 20 points a game, was one of the best one-on-one scorers in the country and at the time, appeared to be the perfect pick for the Thunder at No. 3.

I’m not saying he isn’t or won’t be. But right now, Oklahoma City isn’t getting the kind of production it had in mind from Harden. He’s averaging more minutes than last year (25.3), but fewer points (8.2), assists (1.4) and his field goal percentage is way down (36.4). His PER is an anemic 10.5.

Look at what he did late last season, in summer league and in the preseason. He appeared ready to breakout. But he’s struggled some early, much like the rest of the team. So, what’s up?

DT contributor and commenter Joe put this idea in the comments and I thought it was completely on point:

I think Harden’s biggest and maybe only problem is that he doesn’t take what the defense gives him, he tries to do what he wants even if the door is closed.

He gets the ball often near the three point line. If he’s open he sometimes shoots the three, I’m fine with that. Other times he mostly begins trying to drive to the hole with the dribble drive. Fine. But in the NBA, when the help defense comes there needs to be a counter move. He can’t just force up another left handed prayer and hope to get an AND 1. If it was working for him we wouldn’t be talking about him being a bust. He’s only hitting 38% of his shots at the rim.

He needs to take what the defense gives him. When he begins his drive he needs to be of the mindset that the drive is to either find the open space for pull up jumper and take it, to drive and pull up and use the floater (like Maynor does so well) or to look to dish. But he should only be going all the way to the hole if he’s got a clear lane and can beat the help and then he needs to dunk the damn ball and not do a stupid little lefty finger roll.  That worked in college, it doesn’t work against Tyson Chandler. It might work tonight against Brad Miller, but less likely against a quality center.

To me that’s the jist of it. He’s shown decent touch on the short jumper and he’s proven he can hit the three, but he needs an in-between game. He needs to use all the tools in the tool belt.

On top of that, Harden is in such an awkward position for a guy that was taken third and has always been the star scorer for his team at every stop. He’s having to play a role. And that’s not something that’s easy to figure out. The position Harden is in is kind of awkward. Thabo Sefolosha is extremely valuable because of his defense. With Russell Westbrook’s development as a point guard and second reliable scorer, plus Kevin Durant, plus Jeff Green, Harden is kind of getting squeezed.

How do you fit in to that offense? How do you know when to look for your own, when to create and when to shoot? Even more than Harden developing a reliable 3-point shot or his defense, figuring out simply how to fit in is really the hardest, and most important thing for him. It’s really a skill that takes a special player to develop. John Havlicek is the gold standard, with guys currently playing it well like Jamal Crawford, Manu Ginobili, Jason Terry and Lamar Odom.

Being a quality sixth man doesn’t mean you’re handcuffed by your starters. It means you provide a spark, fill in the blanks when you need to and give your team a second unit that can keep your team in it. It’s not like Harden hasn’t played meaningful minutes. He’s on the floor most times in crunch time and in important late-game situations. But when you’re out there with Durant, Westbrook and Green, where do you find your own? It’s really kind of hard to blame Harden, because he’s in a tough spot.

Look at what he did when he got the opportunity to start and play his old familiar role as a go-to guy. Against the Celtics where Durant and Green missed, Harden had 12 points, six rebounds and four assists. Then against Milwaukee, he went for a season-high 23 points, nine rebounds and four assists, plus 6-8 from 3. (Oh, and on the season, he’s shooting nearly 42 percent from 3. That’s good.) So there are positives here with Harden. It’s not like he’s not a good basketball player.

It’s way, way, WAY too early to call him anything of a bust or a bad pick. Take anyone and put him in this situation and you don’t know how he’d respond. Reality is, Harden has never complained, never pouted and never not done what he was asked. He understands his part and his job on the team. He just needs to start doing it a little better.

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31 comments
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Jocro
Jocro 5pts

So Harden. He's a really good spot up shooter, eh? Everybody can agree there? I think that element of his game may be enough to merit him starting. Thabo spends most offensive possessions standing around somewhere near the three point line, disregarded by the defense because on the rare occasion that he gets the ball, he misses. Put Harden in the same role, tell him to, catch, shoot, and chase after the ball. Dropping him in the corner gives Russ a shooter to dish out to when he's driving, and even if the defense reacts quickly enough, we usually have 7 or 8 players standing around doing nothing waiting for the ball. In a starting role, Harden could dish to Green or Durant on the perimeter, giving the offensive system a lot more flexibility and capability.

That being said, we need an offensive system. I love seeing Westbrook driving the line and scoring on three big men, but it is not sustainable. If we can get the rest of the team involved, Russ can still get plenty of shots up with some improved efficiency (not just by him, but the other players). I'm not sure what'll happen defensively, but I've seen the past couple years that this team with confidence plays a lot better. When they try to force it people get frustrated and rush it, putting up bad looks. Some nice, crisp, efficient scoring would really help with the confidence, and upping the tempo a little I think could really help with the defense. Can't hit a wide open three if you don't have the time to work the ball to him!

So, in summary (I welcome disagreement)
-Start Harden.
-Get EVERYONE involved on offense.
-Up the tempo, and CONTROL the tempo. Force the other teams to keep up with us, we're fast enough and athletic enough to be a dominant team in transition.

Dunkin'Durant
Dunkin'Durant 5pts

f5alcon :
@Dunkin’Durant
the way i read that was like nba jam with dunk code and he is leaping across the entire court to dunk it.

Hardin needs a signature dunk. Grabs beard with right hand and dunks with the left. Pure awesomeness.

okc baby
okc baby 5pts

Exactly chaos ball. Your never going to win the most important games running around with your head chopped off or standing around like statues.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

Another problem I find with Harden (and pretty much every player on the team) is there's a huge tendency to size up the situation after catch rather than before. You hardly ever see a kickout then quick touch pass around the horn to the open man. It's always catch then hold the ball and read the defense. Those reads need to come much quicker in the NBA, decisions about where you're going with the ball should be made ideally before the ball hits your hands. A system would help, but it's mostly just bad player habits that our coaching staff hasn't bothered to fix. Our players need to be trained to think faster on offense.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

@Dunkin’Durant
the way i read that was like nba jam with dunk code and he is leaping across the entire court to dunk it.

Dunkin'Durant
Dunkin'Durant 5pts

Years from now it will be discovered that Hardin was stoned for most of the games after he gets an offensive rebound, takes off and dunks on the opposite goal.

Greg
Greg 5pts

Harden will be fine. This team is going to be nasty in a couple years. Ibaka's skills are rounding into form, and he's going to be a very formidable PF in the league. Harden still has all the skills and potential he once had, they just haven't been polished - and like it's been pointed out MANY a time, he's just having confidence issues.

We are SET for the future at 4 positions PG (Russ), SG (Harden & Thabo), SF (Durant), PF (Ibaka). The only uncertainty in my eyes is the center (Aldrich & Pleiss), and the future of Jeff Green.

DSYIII
DSYIII 5pts

If we actually had an offense that involved ball-movement and cuts to the basket we would be terrifying. The only player flourishing in the offense we have is westbrook, and as much as he can look like it for flashes, he ain't jordan. Brooks is wasting the talent of almost our entire roster

Basketball Goals
Basketball Goals 5pts

He just needs some confidence. I think he'll figure it out.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

@Anonymous
in hardens case probably, green and mullens have their own issues beyond brooks.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

our team needs a really good sports psychologist, harden, green, mullens, could also use one.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

@thunder tim
Now I see what you’re after.
You can get on/off court values at these links (and their drilldowns)

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011OKC.HTM

http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2010-2011&id=846

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

@thunder tim

Now I see what you're after.

You can get on/off court values at these links (and their drilldowns)

http://www.82games.com/1011/1011OKC.HTM

http://basketballvalue.com/player.php?year=2010-2011&id=846

DizzyDai
DizzyDai 5pts

Catch and shoot, Harden!

okc baby
okc baby 5pts

Yep we live and die off them

Bruno
Bruno 5pts

great piece Royce, for me it's all about finding his role and getting to a comfort level with the rest of the team.

when I watch Harden, he seems like he's trying awfully hard to make the right play... he's good on the catch and shoot, and whenever he gets the ball and needs to create something, he tries to go to the rim, draw a foul or something like that.

the problem is, he isn't very athletic and it's showing in the NBA... at Arizona State, he athletic enough to get to the rim against anybody, but the NBA is a different world, pretty much everybody is athletic enough nowadays.

I'm not saying he shouldn't drive to the basket, but he needs to find a better balance (and the coaching staff needs to help him do that) between driving and shooting...

we all expected him to be a playmaker, but he rarely creates baskets for teammates and has been much more effective as a catch and shoot SG... he needs to stop trying to make "the right play" and take whatever the defense gives him.

okc thunder
okc thunder 5pts

Theres hardly any ball movement. The offense is geared towards RW and KD.

thunder tim
thunder tim 5pts

@Other Thomas
Thanks.
I looked here: http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/players/stats?playerId=3992 and here: http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01.html but didn't see +/-. where is that data?

Other Thomas
Other Thomas 5pts

Also from lineup +/-, we know these lineups suck:

Westbrook, Russell - Sefolosha, Thabo - Durant, Kevin - Green, Jeff - Ibaka, Serge (unit)

Westbrook, Russell - Sefolosha, Thabo - Durant, Kevin - Green, Jeff - Krstic, Nenad (unit)

And yet, they are the most used lineups for the Thunder. No evidence for/against harden in the lineups, although it seems as if hes a wash with Thabo in most lineups (roughly the same value).

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

@Anonymous

That was me.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

@thunder tim

Apologies - they are not on ESPN's player stats page, they're in the game box score. You'll have to do comparisons at basketball reference.

Other Thomas
Other Thomas 5pts

The Thunder were 4.5 points better last season, accounting for some of the difference in net +/-.

Other Thomas
Other Thomas 5pts

@thunder tim

This year (so far) net: -3.16
This year (bbref.com) adj: 3.06

Last year net: 3.11
Last year adj: -1.78

Hard to glean much from this. Hes been "okay" both years.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

@thunder tim

You can. Those are in ESPN's player stats page, as well as basketball reference.

thunder tim
thunder tim 5pts

can anyone pull his +/- for this year, compared with last year?

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

I think the problem with James is primarily two things...

1. He hesitates on several of his open shots.
2. I don't see any plays called for James.

James isn't the best one on one dribble penetrator - he really struggles in ISO situations, which is unfortunately the bulk of our offense. As a result if he isn't open on a spot up shot or in transition, then he is just a ball mover. The problem is exacerbated because he doesn't take his open spot up shots without hesitation.

To his credit, he does work the boards, works for assists, rarely gambles and his defense has improved.

Other Thomas
Other Thomas 5pts

Harden has a good 3 point shot, he just has to shoot them more. He is well over 50% on catch and shoot 3's. He would benefit greatly from being in an offense that looked for spot up shooters. I think Thunder players are so used to Thabo being out beyond the 3 point line (Thabo is below 30% on spot up jumpers this season) that they dont think to kick out. Add to that the most of the Thunder players are poor passers and you have part one of the problem.

Part two is his inability to finish at the rim. He does a great job of getting to the foul line and knocking shots down there to mitigate this problem, but it is definitely something he can improve on. Getting him a coach that teaches him how to play athletically at the rim would benefit him as much as getting stronger will help.

Part three is that Scott Brooks really yanks him around with the minutes. Harden is kind of getting Darko'd. He has a solid player in front of him (Thabo), but Harden would be so much better in that starting lineup if he could pan out and take JG's usage. As Justin pointed out, he gets yanked around and pulled after a few bad shots which allows no time for development. Remember Kevin Durant that first season? I do, he messed up A LOT but was given a very long leash because he had potential. James Harden has not gotten that leash because OKC is a contender, but he is the sort of player who could definitely benefit from it.

I hesitate and overthink sometimes when playing bball, but I find that the more I play and learn from my mistakes, the less I overthink. I think Brooks should let Harden play through these hiccups. If he fails when he gets significant burn, we can call him a bust. Until then, we can only speculate and hope for more.

diddoff
diddoff 5pts

It's the same problem like that one Beasley had in Miami. He can only be effective if he gets enough touches.
In Brooks' system nearly everyone in the rotation gets more touches than Harden does.
But: He shoots the deep ones really well this season. Maybee someone should tell him to shoot open threes.

DizzyDai
DizzyDai 5pts

Did you mean 'last year' in that second paragraph?

kevin
kevin 5pts

Agreed. Great stuff. Too early to call him a bust or a bad pick. He's young and trying to figure out where he fits in. The upside, which you mentioned, is that he isn't complaining. He's working, trying to get better and making sure he's a good teammate. Loved the pick at the time, hoping it turns out well for all involved.

justin
justin 5pts

I disagree that he has not pouted. There are times on the court where he is letting either his ineffectiveness or lack of involvement come out in his level of effort.

Brooks seriously mishandled him late last season when he was playing well, frequently pulling him when he had a poor couple of minutes. I think it's all about confidence for Harden. I think it was against Milwaukee but the opposing announcers commented on how athletic Harden is but he rarely uses it in game because he hesitates and over thinks.

Trackbacks

  1. 11/30 Daily Links « OKC ThunderDome says:
    November 30, 2010 at 11:24 am

    [...] Thunder takes its own look at James Harden.  I feel as if he’s going to be appearing on many virtual sofas this [...]

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