Ron Hoskins/NBAE/Getty Images
I don’t think there’s any argument against the fact that Oklahoma City had no business winning this game. The Thunder shot under 39 percent, went down by 14 in the third quarter, Kevin Durant didn’t shoot the ball well and Roy Hibbert kind of looked like Patrick Ewing against OKC.
But that was all in the first 42 minutes or so. Because the last 11 (overtime included), the Thunder played like they HAD to win this game. They got the big stops. They got the big rebounds. They hit the big shots. I feel like it’s becoming a strange theme to say, “I have no clue how the Thunder won this game” but, I have no clue how the Thunder won this game.
Oh here’s one way: Russell Freaking Westbrook. (That’s actually his real middle name if you didn’t know.) A career-high 43 points on 13-24 shooting, eight assists, eight rebounds, three steals and one massively massive play after another. Pick your word to describe OKC’s point guard. Beast. Monster. Fire breathing dragon. Death Star (OK, that one didn’t really make sense). Westbrook was all of that and more in this one.
Kevin Durant is Oklahoma City’s best player. There’s no doubt. But 16 games into the 2010-11 season, Russell Westbrook is the Thunder’s Most Valuable Player. There’s also no doubt. Without him, OKC is under .500 and probably playing some of the most embarrassingly awful offense ever known to James Naismith’s wonderful creation. But with Westbrook, the Thunder always has a chance no matter how bad they’re shooting, passing or playing. He can always bail them out.
Against the Pacers, the Thunder offense wasn’t really that bad in terms of spacing and movement. It was bad because there were a ton of dumb shots taken. It basically turned into a “Get out of the way and let Russ score” type of game. Which is really the best (and only) solution when KD has one of these random, awful nights where nothing falls. If Russ doesn’t take over, OKC literally has nothing to rely on offensively. Most of the time, that well dries up and OKC comes up short. But this time, KD found his game when the Thunder needed him, scored a handful of big buckets late and that’s what pushed OKC over the top. Westbrook took them to the edge and Durant pushed them over it.
These types of games are so big for KD’s evolution, despite him playing kind of horrible. With about a minute and a half left in the game, I told my wife that one thing I’m not sure Durant has in him quite yet is that Kobe Bryant mentality that it doesn’t matter if you’re 3-34 in a game, you’re 0-0 taking the next shot. Bryant is the best there is about forgetting about how things are going and stepping up and hitting three huge jumpers despite being missing 28 in the first 46 minutes of the game. And wouldn’t you know, KD dropped in an and-one right about the same time I finished the sentence. Then he followed that up with three large jumpers in overtime. Durant has the ability to step up when he has to. And that’s so, so important.
NOTES:
- Durant finished the night with 25 points on 9-26 shooting and 1-8 from 3. At one point in the first half, he missed 10 straight shots. And honestly, it was really because they were mostly stupid, forced shots. But any time KD is shooting poorly, it pains me so much. I have to quit worrying about him constantly. I feel like his dad or something. When the ball is in flight, i want it to go in so bad.
- Russ may be the current MVP of the team, but Durant stepped up with two MVP-style plays late in regulation. Roy Hibbert was torching the Thunder inside so Indiana went down low to the big man. Hibbert caught the ball twice on the block and looked to have a pretty much automatic four points. Except Durant rose up and stuffed him twice. Just two incredible plays for the Thunder’s leader. Those are the types of things that MVPs do. When it’s not working for you in one aspect, make a difference somewhere else. And KD did.
- Indiana basically gift-wrapped OKC’s comeback. In the third, the Thunder trailed by 14 but found an 11-0 run because the Pacers turned it over six times in three minutes. Thanks, Pacers!
- I kept waiting for Indiana’s five-point lead to turn to 10. Then I thought their three-point lead would be seven. Then when it was tied at 83-83 with six minutes left, I kept waiting for a 6-0 Indy run. But the Thunder hung tough by cranking up the defense and closing on the Pacers’ good shooters. That’s how you win when you’re playing really terrible. We pretty much saw the blueprint for it tonight.
- For most of the night, it was clear the team was really frustrated with themselves. They were playing really hard, but it just wasn’t happening. It was like they couldn’t understand it. But that’s ultimately what won it for them. They never, ever stopped playing.
- OKC had just 14 assists in this one (12 coming from Jeff Green and Westbrook) but that was largely because nobody could make a freaking shot.
- Jeff Green, much like Durant, didn’t play that well in an offensive sense. He was 4-16 from the field and had 16 points. But Green grabbed a season-high 14 rebounds (five offensive) and was kind of great on Hibbert late in the game. Green hurt his groin late in the game and appeared to be in a lot of pain, but stepped up and hit two big free throws and hung in there before fouling out. Quite a gutsy performance from Green.
- Serge Ibaka started for Nenad Krstic who was out with a sore back. Ibaka was pretty much entirely ineffective against Hibbert. He played just 16 minutes and had one rebound. Can we all agree he’s not a center yet? Props to Scott Brooks for recognizing the issue and fixing his rotation.
- In fact, Byron Mullens came in to try and play defense on Hibbert. Let me say that again: Byron Mullens came in to try and play defense on Hibbert. That was the kind of game this was. However, Mullens entered when OKC was down 14 and then went on an 11-0 run after he checked in. Really, Mullens played an excellent two minutes. He absolutely worked his butt off in his short time on the floor and broke some of Indiana and Hibbert’s momentum. You’ve got to love when a benchwarmer get his chance, albeit small, and makes a difference.
- Speaking of, D.J. White was big too. The box score doesn’t show it, but he played a solid six minutes tonight.
- Also, I couldn’t help but wonder if Aldrich would’ve done as well as Mullens in those same two minutes in that same situation. Hmm.
- Instead of the NBA making a point to emphasize complaining by calling technical fouls, they need an emphasis on not calling fouls when a player pumps, get his defender in the air, jumps directly into him, but still doesn’t draw contact, but then flails anyway and gets a two-shot foul call. Can we fix that one please?
- Grant Long said he never complains about officiating. Yeah and Brian Davis never says things that make absolute no sense either. Durant butters up his pie and takes a bite of the Christmas stocking! (I made that one up, but he probably said something similar tonight.)
- One more good point about Long via Twitterer @olddirtymath: “I like how Grant Long thinks any foul is a ‘good foul’ when the guy shooting the free throws misses one of them.”
- Roy Hibbert just looks so terrible at basketball.
- In the fourth quarter, Thabo talked the officials into reversing a call where Granger kicked the ball out. What emphasis on complaining? And what did they say about how it never does any good?
- Danny Granger was only 2-9 from 3? I could’ve sworn he was like 8-11.
- It’s going to be nice when James Harden finally starts playing consistently on the offensive end and starts adding something. That’s going to be sweet.
- Westbrook is really the only Thunderer that is consistently good every single game. Even nights where Russ is 3-14 with 12 points, he still played a nice game. It’s probably because he plays so dang hard, but you can always count on something productive from Westbrook.
Don’t get me wrong, we’ve got another “There’s a lot to complain about but hey, at least we won” type of games on our hands. And as long as they keep winning, that stuff matters less and less. It might mean that I could very well die by the end of the season, but wins are sweet no matter how you come about them.
This Pacers team isn’t a bad group. And the Thunder needed a win on the road against them. It wasn’t pretty. It wasn’t nice. It wasn’t ideal. But it got done.
Next up: At the Rockets Sunday night.
Smits was a 1 time All-Star but he'd have more if he played today.
@Other Thomas
You know, this franchise has drafted so many bid men going all the way back to the Seattle days that it seems like eventually the law of averages would pay off and one of them might actually produce. [Crossing my fingures this is the one]. It's not like we need Shaq or Hakeem here. I think Rik Smits would be a godsend at this point.
I probably should have looked a little further. A 6-5 PF with long arms.
Other Thomas or others,
Any thoughts on Kyle Hines? Good Euro stats. Is he good for that alone or would he have any chance in the NBA?
@Thomas
He has a hard time finishing against the big and physical Euroleague defenders. He also fouls too much right now, but the basic defensive stats/effort level from him looks excellent. He leads Euroleague in DReb/40 and in the top group in other rebounding categories. He needs to get stronger, but isnt your typical soft euro down low.
Crow, definitely on Hibbert. He has been fantastic on both ends this year.
@justin
Adjusted +/- argees with Hibbert being good on defense.
Despite the slippage on personal FG%, Offensive Adjusted +/- suggests he is having a positive offensive impact too, better than last season. I don't off-hand know if he is getting doubled more than last season and if that affects his FG% but the team seems to be benefiting from his presence, his better offensive rebounding and better passing.
@John
People say "kind of" and other such things because without it it can be easy for somebody to assume you meant / were claiming a more exact match than you were.
Hibbert is a relatively complete big man and you mostly have to get that in the draft or rarely at a high free agent price. Ibaka is a somewhat different type but a good catch. If they end up with another good true big from among the other young bigs (beyond Green) that will aid the score of past drafts.
Speaking of big men, I just came across this blurb from SLAM online while catching up on the Euroleague:
"Oklahoma City Thunder fans should rejoice knowing that their investment is accruing value overseas, as 31st pick Tibor Pleiss pulled down 10 rebounds in 20 minutes against Lima and Unicaja. If Tibor keeps it going like this, then he and Kyle Hines would become a beautifully balanced tandem in the Bamberg post with Hines providing the offense."
That sounds positive.
It's Hibbert's defense that's really improved. The Pacers were close to league average defensively last season and so far this year they are fifth.
51.7% TS is unacceptable scoring efficiency for a center, though. He's actually regressed from last year in this respect. He's still a top ten center in the league right now because he's productive in lots of other areas, but even last night he shot the ball real inefficiently, and blew a lot of easy looks.
@Thomas
Yeah, some day in OKC or elsewhere, White will probably get to show what he can and can't do more than to date.
One downside of getting to the line a lot is that I get tired of watching free-throws and tune over to other stuff way more than I used to.
Hibbert puts up those stats in only 30 minutes a game as well.
Roy Hibbert is KIND OF a good center. His FG% isn't good for a center, but he's finally starting to catch up to where people thought he should be. There are 20 teams in the NBA that would love to have him on their teams, the Thunder being one of them. Kristic is horrible, and it's embarrassing to watch him play at times. He blows lay-ups, is a horrible rebounder, can't block shots, takes too many jumpers, and is slower than all hell. He is a backup center at best. I understand you said that Hibbert LOOKS so terrible at basketball. But tell me how 15.6 pts 9.4 rebs 2.8 asts 2.3 blks and shoots 80% from the line is terrible for a 3rd year center that was not NBA ready when he was drafted. P.S. You kind of say "KIND OF" a lot.
@royce
so im too late to make fun of people over the internet.... Guess I will have to settle for getting it out of my system in middle school.
@justin
Haha you are very patient, nice job explaining the ray allen trade, even if it fell upon dead ears, I think some ppl dont realize that bball is not the same as football and that its not all about players and draft picks, but that salary/years left on contract are also very important... but that's just a guess, wouldn't want to make assumptions about ppl based on their posts on a basketball blog
Other Thomas :
The Adj +/- data just got shaken up again today. Suggests Durant is getting on the right track, Harden has been very good defensively, and that the starting lineup is not awesome defensively (so nice when the data backs up the observation). Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic are the two worst players via the numbers. DJ White, in a very small sample size, has been awesome. Its fascinating to think what would happen if he and Jeff Green switched spots in the rotation. Could he be a productive player in big minutes?
I don't have the stats to back it up but I feel that D.J. White is the kind of guy who could be very effective in the right offensive system. He can step out and hit that 16 footer consistently. If he were ever traded to Phoenix I think Nash would have people wondering why we barely used him.
On second take, using a bit more detailed and comprehensive team similarity comparison instead of just eyeballing it, it looks like the Knicks might be the most similar overall though the Hawks, Nuggets Blazers and Rockets aren't that far behind. The offense is most like the Nuggets, the defense most like the Knicks. The Suns were not as good a comparison on my first take at the roll-up offensive / defensive efficiency level as these are.
Wow, totally did not realize I still have synergy from last year. Awesome.
Interesting that James Harden is 60% in off screen and spot up threes, shoot more/run some plays for the guy!
I noted yesterday that on the big picture (offensive and defensive efficiency) the Thunder look a fair amount like the Suns. They also look somewhat like the Hawks and Knicks but probably closest at the 4 Factor level to the Nuggets, Blazers and Rockets.
@justin
That's too bad but it did sound like it was mainly shot-oriented.
@Other Thomas
Improvement in the 1 year Adjusted from the 2 year is indeed worth noting and following to see if it lasts. It can be related to player development or better lineup usage situations or randomness. There is a fair amount of things that can lead to the view that Harden is pretty good on defense overall.
@Crow
Nah, there's no kind of functionality like that. This is still the 2009 system that is up, with 2010 statistics. They are supposedly supposed to release a new version soon with a lot more to offer.
@justin
Can you tease out anything interesting from Synergy about the assist rates of players by play type? Where Durant and Green and others do their best passing?
@dj
You're right I think. Durant will see what he needs to do to be a bit more like Bird and other titlewinners. It is very slow going on the play-making but will take any signs you can find. He'll probably show more progress.
@Crow
The caution with that is that he has improved by leaps and bounds defensively since the beginning of last season. Take away that indecision on offense and hes a firm positive. It is evident that brooks trusts him defensively after last night. Last season he would not have left Harden in the game.
@Other Thomas
It is interesting / countervailing the general conversation that Adjusted +/- likes Harden on the 1 year estimate, though the average error is very high on that right now and on the more reliable 2 year he is estimated as a mild negative. The fact that the raw team +/- and the 1 year Adjusted +/- conflict and that 1 year and 2 year Adjusted +/- also conflict on him gives me greater caution. There are some other versions I'll check too but I'll wait 'n see based on more games and better later stats.
As one who's felt compelled to point out shortcomings latelt, mostly Brooks' & (gasp!) Durant's, time to give props.
Yesterday, I witnessed Durant passing out of an isolation late in the ballgame for what I believe may be 1st time ever. And it resulted in a bucket due to a nice play with Green & Westbrook. How about that. Trust your teammates & good things happen. Durant is still guilty of gunning a bit too much so far this season, but I'm taking that pass out as a sign. As part of his maturation process he will learn that the more he can get out of his teammates the better his team will be & the more recognition he will get. Great players, real superstars, make their teammates better. Durant wants to be a superstar. He'll get there. He just needs to understand what was the difference between Larry Bird & Dominique Wilkins.
Also want to acknowledge that Brooks actually did play Mullens. In a real game. (Ok, & he's playing DJ White too.) So it is possible that he at least sometimes contemplating how he's going to win games in April & not just November.
Anyway, those where takeaways from the Pacer game.
@Crow
We're still over 20% isolations according to Synergy.
Most of our players don't look to pass in the half court, especially in close games. Jeff Green and Kevin Durant being the main culprits.
Despite the recent big team assist games they are still just one spot above last on that.
Last 10 games they have become a top 10 fouling team after being light early.
The Adj +/- data just got shaken up again today. Suggests Durant is getting on the right track, Harden has been very good defensively, and that the starting lineup is not awesome defensively (so nice when the data backs up the observation). Jeff Green and Nenad Kristic are the two worst players via the numbers. DJ White, in a very small sample size, has been awesome. Its fascinating to think what would happen if he and Jeff Green switched spots in the rotation. Could he be a productive player in big minutes?
The Thunder are modestly higher on own 16-23 feet attempts than league average but they are hitting them better than average. The attempts are up from last season but so is the FG%.
As much as I sometimes rail against the mid-range, the good teams usually do it well and sometimes do it more often than normal. If you are getting inside, like they are, I'll tolerate it better.
@justin
We were looking the same places again but thanks for noting the slightly out of date data.
Your eye was right about giving up a higher than normal percentage on the long 2, 4th highest, but at 43.6% I'll take that from any opponent, big man or otherwise. Opponent mid range shooting from 5-15 feet has been below average.
@Crow
Check out 16-23 feet, last time I checked we were doing poorly there.
Also keep in mind hoopdata's database hasn't been updated since 11/22.
Using hoopdata, overall opponent 3 pt FG% is well above league against us this season but overall 3 pt attempts per game are still well below average and 2.5 less than last season.
Opponent at the rim attempts are down 3 per game compared to last season but they are down around the league much more than against the Thunder so that the Thunder are actually giving up more than anyone else. I need the stats to see that complexity and see it fast and pretty clearly.
The team defensive improvement last season was beyond my expectation or understanding and the decline is the same way. 1 year spikes either way are not that uncommon but I am still learning a bit more about them.
Ok I guess I am a little slow of the draw. You had the same general thing already while I was typing. Good grab.
@justin
You indicate that the opposition bigger guys are shooting the ball well from long range based on observation and spot checking the stats.
And on that specific issue the overall stats agree.
http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/opponentstats/11/4/fga3/1-1
Opponent PFs and Cs are getting the 10th most 3 pt attempts against the Thunder and hitting 52% of them.
And flip to last season's page it is night and day comparison. Last season the Thunder big man opponents got the 2nd least 3 pt attempts and shot under 30%. No way I personally could recall that from tape and memory.
We're giving up 35.4% 3PT shooting to backcourts which is only .7% worse than last season, but we're giving up 41.3% 3PT shooting to front courts, up from 32.8% last season.
So a clear strength of the team has become a weakness. Matt Bonner's hot night might skew the numbers a little, but I still think it's relevant since he was wide open for most of them.
@justin
Up from 29.3% last season.
According to hoops stats we are giving up 53.3% 3PT shooting to PF's, second worst in the NBA.
@justin
I hear you. The why is the toughest regardless.
i.e. one thing the stats won't show in something like the Dallas game is how many of their misses were wide open. You look at the numbers through three quarters, at the eFG%, and it looks like we're playing great defense. But we weren't.
@Crow
I meant the bigger guys shooting the ball from long range. Our big guys do a poor job of closing out and the likes of Bonner, etc. are getting wide open 3PT looks.
I agree the perimeter defense has been mostly to blame for the slippage, and I thought it was interesting how many bigger shooters have had great shooting nights from 3PT range against us.
justin
" ... it seems to be a lot of the bigger guys have done more killing than they should."
And yet the overall numbers show that opposing PF=C interiors are barely scoring more than the league mean and that nearly all the difference in defensive performance from average is coming from weak perimeter defense.
@Crow
Of course, but while the stats offer up objectivity, the game still can't be described 100% in numbers. Stats do a great job answering the 'what' but they can't answer the 'why' to my satisfaction. If I wasn't watching every game I'd have a lot more questions about the team without satisfactory answers.
My experience from watching basketball heavily for decades with the Sonics and college before that and following the stats fairly carefully for 2 decades and more heavily for the last decade leads me to trust the stats a lot. Very easy for the pictures and memory to create a random storyline or the one you want.
@daniel
I just saw that, I would have loved to have seen a series on our guys, though I can understand why the franchise though it might be a distraction.
Thabo's been playing better offensively the last while, but I don't think his defense has been as good as it was his first year and part of last year here.
Most of our failings defensively are on team defense, though, IMO. Poor communication, ball watching.
It seems we get sliced up most by big guys who can shoot:
C. Villanueva: 2-3 3P
A. Daye: 2-4 3P
A. Kirilenko 2-3 3P
M. Bonner: 7-7 3P
K. Love: 4-6 3P
A. Tolliver: 1-2 3P
D. Nowitzki: 2-5 3P
McRoberts had a wide open three last night in the corner, James Posey did a lot of his damage with Jeff Green guarding him.
The three point shot and long two pointer have killed us all year in general, and it seems to be a lot of the bigger guys have done more killing than they should.
@justin
I see some TV and some streams but not as much as others given a slow computer.
Small sample but Maynor-Harden-White has done very well in limited minutes. As in nothing used longer has better results and it is not even close.
Crow how much Thunder basketball do you see? I think a lot of your questions could be answered by watching what happens on the court.