Home town fans are often the worst judge of the talent on their team. Because of that, we are joined by Marc Narducci of Hoopshype.com who will help us evaluate our players from a general NBA view. We also recap the past week of Thunder games with our new segment, “DEEP THOUGHTS”. Finally, we give out our weekly awards with a new name. All this and more can be yours by simply downloading the episode.
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@justin
He can only do so much.
@Joe
I assume Thabo guards Harden a lot in practice. I wonder impact that has had on Harden. Is that great trial by fire that will eventually pay off or does it help lead to his current behavior?
The offense doesn't perform very well when Maynor is on the court, so either his strengths at those qualities aren't meaningful or his weaknesses outweigh the benefits of those qualities.
okc baby :
I agree with boxscore stats and such. I take them with a grain of salt. Best evaluation is with your eyes. Take E Maynor he stats are not going to be remarkable. But if you watch him bring the ball up he is orchestrating the office sometimes telling other players where to be or set a pick……kinda like a second coach on the court. Sometimes he should just take the game over when we are cold though. Hopefully brooks will let him loose a couple times.
But this is tangible. If Maynor's doing this, and it has any effect on anything, then it will be evident in the offense performing better when he is on the court.
Tangible and intangible are opposite (intangible = not tangible) but I think there is gray in-between.
Tangible is defined variously including:
capable of being perceived
palpable
substantially real
capable of being precisely identified or realized by the mind
capable of being appraised at an actual or approximate value
Just because you may not be able to precisely appraise actual value I generally would not go so far as to call it an intangible. But words are often rough tools. Used in different ways by different folks.
okc baby :
I agree with boxscore stats and such. I take them with a grain of salt. Best evaluation is with your eyes. Take E Maynor he stats are not going to be remarkable. But if you watch him bring the ball up he is orchestrating the office sometimes telling other players where to be or set a pick……kinda like a second coach on the court. Sometimes he should just take the game over when we are cold though. Hopefully brooks will let him loose a couple times.
amen
damn I need spell check:) offense* his* probably others
I agree with boxscore stats and such. I take them with a grain of salt. Best evaluation is with your eyes. Take E Maynor he stats are not going to be remarkable. But if you watch him bring the ball up he is orchestrating the office sometimes telling other players where to be or set a pick......kinda like a second coach on the court. Sometimes he should just take the game over when we are cold though. Hopefully brooks will let him loose a couple times.
@Crow
I think that's a good separation: Intangible (meaning actually unmeasured things) and Non-Box Score (measured things just not as readily available).
@okc baby
Harden is playing like a bust. Essentially, he's playing like Daequan Cook (shooting acceptably from three but nowhere else, not significantly impacting any other facet of the game) has in his career. That's not to say he is or will forever be a bust, just that he's playing like it now. Last year post ASG, he was playing close to a star level in his minutes. This year he's not bringing anything to the table.
The various forms of Adjusted +/- and Statistical +/- are not exactly aligned but it appears fairly safe to say that Durant and Westbrook have positive non-boxscore value and that Green has negative non-boxscore value (given that his Statistical +/- looks a lot better than his Adjusted +/-).
The biggest difference between these 2 metrics is the inclusion of shot defense (1 on 1 and at the help / team level). You can see a tangible estimate of this stuff at 82 games or use Defensive Adjusted +/-.
Hardens D is suspect. His shooting isnt consistent but he does show flashes of being a good shooter and he doesnt finish drives very well.
Harden is kind of a bust. Dont compare him to Evans. Harden is no Evans. I agree Harden is ignored by Westbrook and KD. But when Maynor is in Harden is not the player he should be either.
Other non-boxscore impacts- drawing defense attention especially outright double-teams and lane penetration, passing away from poor or cold shooters, running plays well or breaking them well as needed, etc.
I think Harden's biggest and maybe only problem is that he doesn't take what the defense gives him, he tries to do what he wants even if the door is closed.
He gets the ball often near the three point line. If he's open he sometimes shoots the three, I'm fine with that. Other times he mostly begins trying to drive to the hole with the dribble drive. Fine. But in the NBA, when the help defense comes there needs to be a counter move. He can't just force up another left handed prayer and hope to get an AND 1. If it was working for him we wouldn't be talking about him being a bust. He's only hitting 38% of his shots at the rim.
He needs to take what the defense gives him. When he begins his drive he needs to be of the mindset that the drive is to either find the open space for pull up jumper and take it, to drive and pull up and use the floater (like Maynor does so well) or to look to dish. But he should only be going all the way to the hole if he's got a clear lane and can beat the help and then he needs to dunk the damn ball and not do a stupid little lefty finger roll. That worked in college, it doesn't work against Tyson Chandler. It might work tonight against Brad Miller, but less likely against a quality center.
To me that's the jist of it. He's shown decent touch on the short jumper and he's proven he can hit the three, but he needs an in-between game. He needs to use all the tools in the tool belt.
There are tangibles that just aren't in the traditional boxscore- charges, picks, box-outs, floor spacing, non-assist passing, turnover saves, tip outs, help defense, outlet passes, moving to draw defensive attention, transition defense, pick n roll action or defense, clock awareness, etc.
They get covered in Adjusted +/- at least roughly to the extent they impact the boxscore. Along with everything else. But Adjusted +/- minus Statistical +/- would essentially equally non-boxscore value, that might get called "intangible".
@justin
The traditional box score just needs to be phased out a bit. If you want to know about how good players are, the stats are out there to find out. If you just want to go be "feel," why bother with the box score anyway.
I will say there are certain intangibles. However, those intangibles only matter if they are negative. Being a good guy doesn't make you a better player, it just keeps the team out of trouble. Being smart doesn't matter unless you make better plays on the court. The only intangibles that matter are the ones that hurt your team financially or on the court (being petulant, in legal trouble, or just a jerk to your teammates). Ultimately, no matter how nice, smart, or charismatic you are, your worth is how much you help the team on the court.
@Keith
I was really more refuting the idea that Morey doesn't care about "intangibles" as defined per the current discussion.
@jhoan
He's not the Tay he used to be, and I mean that in a bad way. He's having a really good game today, but his defense is waaay off his lockdown status of years ago, and he's still not aggressive enough to consistently worry about offensively.
@dream catcher
What are some intangibles?
@Keith
Charges taken should become part of the traditional boxscore.
justin :@dream
catcher
There’s no such thing as ‘intangibles’.
all I need to know
@Mark!
Isn't Battier the poster child for tangible</em? glue guy? His defense is stellar, and it's been shown over time that Houston is better defensively with him in, and opposing SG/SFs are worse against him. Further, while not an offensive force, he's been a good 3 pt shooter, making him a perfect complementary player. Those are all tangibles.
He's only called a no-stat all star because most fans and media members don't care about defense. The only stats they know are blocks/steals/rebounds. You can be a great defender without those, but it's harder for the average fan/media member to see it.
is anyone seeing tayshaun prince? woooowwwwwww
can we just start calling him christ paul?
The Hornets look terrific.
@Mark!
If it's intangible, how do we know about it?
dream catcher :
justin reminds me of Daryl Morey. He is an expert in tangible stuff, but has no idea when it comes to intangibles.
Isn't Shane Battier the poster child for the intangible glue-guy, "No-Stat All-Star"?
i just got some seats for the game tonight. my second thunder game :D
@dream catcher
There's no such thing as 'intangibles'. Most of the 'intangibles' fans talk about usually show up in the productivity somewhere. Nick Collison exhibits a lot of those properties. He's smart, communicates on defense, he's tough; curiously, our defense is better when he's in the game.
If someone like Jeff Green had all these positive qualities we'd be seeing him making more of a difference. He makes clutch plays, that's about it.
@dream catcher
And you remind me of Isiah Thomas.
justin reminds me of Daryl Morey. He is an expert in tangible stuff, but has no idea when it comes to intangibles.
Harden is not a bust, his stats would be comparable to evans of the kings who has no outside but was rookie of the year because he played on a bad team when he was all they had going for them. Curry of the warriors can not guard anyone but he does have a great outside shot but look at how bad of a team they were last year. So even though harden has struggled expect and hope for him to be more like eric gordon of the clippers in the future who only broke out when his teammates started trusting him with the ball instead of being a bust. The kid is still really young.
@Doug
We're unusually reliant upon our top three scorers. Jeff Green has a high usage for a 'third option'. He's scoring a lot because he's taking a lot of shots. Last season, Green had the sixth worst PER of any player in the last 20 years who played 3000 or more minutes. He's been a little bit more productive this year so far but it's been at the expense of ball movement and his defense has been worse.
I don't think you'll find any Thunder fans who wouldn't want Jeff Green to be a sixth man on this team, myself included. But he's not a starting PF by any stretch, and not worth the money he'll cost to come off the bench.
Two comments, how many people can score 18+ points a night as the third option on the offensive end. Not many!
Somebody said Jeff Green does not pass the ball he only shoots the ball... have you not looked at the Thunders assist ranking as whole team... none of the players pass the ball..
as far as Harden I think he has potential but he has to play like the rest of the team... shoot first, pass second... that is Harden's problem when he does get touches he does not autoamtically fire... think or look at Ray Allens life as an NBS player... the guy touches the ball and he shoots...
Jeff Green's value should be rated closer to the values of josh smith from the atlanta hawks or lamar odom from the lackers as far as on the court production and off season value which is about 7.5 to a little under 10 million a season. Yes he can start but he would be a more important piece to a championship caliber team coming off the bench such as lamar odom if the thunder are able to build such a team. The thunder should retain him but at a cost no more than 9 million a season. The thunder need to deal Krstic in a trade because he should not be returning since he is a 7 footer who cant rebound or block shots. A trade to detroit seems like the easiest solution for ben wallace and tayshaun prince with our 1st round pick which is a late pick for the thunders nenad krstic and morris peterson and detroit 2nd round pick which will be early in the round and maybe some cash. Prince can start at the 2 while being 6'9" with great defense and the ability to knock down the open 3 unlike sefolosha while wallace can play better defense than krstic despite only being 6'9", not including the afro, and rebound plus he is a great screen setter, such as for rip hamilton, which will help the offense and he doesn't need shots. These two guys will bring playoff experience and toughness which the thunder lack and their championship rings with them. Besides the thunder would rather have their young centers playing like a tough wallace that can shoot a little hopefully than a soft kristic. Plus, prince can help lower the minutes of kd and green who both obviously play two many minutes as it is very noticeable. However this trade will not to available until december 15 when ben wallace is available and it is already known that the thunder have looked into acquiring prince. Let me know what you think.
Harden isnt a freaking bust. Stop that already. Harden is just in a bad situation. KD and Russ ignore him on offense like they ignore thabo, but with thabo that isnt an issues because he wants to be ignored on offense lol. We all saw what Harden is capable of doing against the Bucks.
Doug :
How many teams have a third option player which will score 18+ points a night and some night be the go to guy for the final shot?
A lot of players can score 18 a night if they take the amount of shots Jeff Green is taking right now. Green's scoring more because he's not passing the ball.
If Harden had the chance to shoot 18, 19, 29 times a night he might make 15 to 20 points a night... but being a 4th or 5th option on the offence does not give him the chance to shoot... if he does Brook pulls him out of the game... Maybe we should fire Brooks
If Harden was not a bust, he would bust out a shoot the dang ball...
I also agree that Harden is a bust...
Green does have value... and the only way I would want to see Green be traded if for a real center... someone who can collect a double, double every night... someone we could rely on to win the game on both offence and the defence.
How many teams have a third option player which will score 18+ points a night and some night be the go to guy for the final shot?
If Green was the main 1 or 2 payers on the court to takes shots he would be scorring 25+ a night. However Green is the third option and is scorring a little above 18.
@Doug
Paul Millsap is not getting anywhere close to the maximum.
I said a few days ago that durring the off season some team will make Green an max offer. The Thunders will match the offer because they really do like Green but they are hoping they don't have to pay the maximum.
Take a look at what Portland has done the last couple of years to the players of the Utah Jazz. As an example they made a great offer to some of the Jazz retricted free agents. If the Jazz did not match then they would have Millsap and instead the Jazz kept them.
I think Millsap and Green are very simular Players.
@justin
Brooks is either in way over his head and has no idea what's wrong with the team or he is completely incapable of holding the team accountable.
I honestly can't come up with another explanation. Unfortunately, I think it's the latter which surprises me given his reputation as a coach the players like and respect. I guess they like him because he doesn't put much pressure on them (excluding Harden)? When I hear stories like "Coach said if we rack of X number assists, we won't have practice tomorrow," it makes you wonder.
A lot of the problems our team is facing are discipline problems. Doing A is easier than doing B, but doing B leads to more consistent, long term success. For example, closing out on 3 point shooters. It's difficult and exhausting to do it, and it's easier to stay home and let them take the shot and hope they miss.
It's really perplexing to me.
Also, the COTY award is a total farce. The Thunder were 100% the team of the year; maybe that should be the name for the award.
And yeah, the deep thoughts are basically everything that's been discussed here ad nauseum. Too much isolating by everyone, not enough ball movement, poor defense.
I really do think there is something to the defense being poor back to last year. I'm backing off on the Ron Adams departure being one of the main culprits. Even though our defense was cruddy post All Star break last year, we never gave up the kind of 3PT shooting that were are giving up now, though.
The team does not have an identity.
justin :
That said, teams do make trades often based on popular perception rather than in depth analysis. Russell Westbrook is still perceived around the league as an excellent defender, while any Thunder fan who watches the games knows he is not.
You basically beat me to the point and said it more succinctly.
@justin
It definitely seemed that way. But [to Keith's point]
@Keith
If the perception is out there that Green is a guy teams would love to have maybe its time to trade him while the getting's still good. My Jeff Green comparison is Shawn Marion. An undersized 4 who is streaky shooter and can guard several positions on the floor. It took several years before Marion's trade value dropped off and it was only after everyone had seen him falter in the playoffs for several seasons. Let's trade him now. If the perception is out there that he's a great player he'll sign for more in free agency than the Thunder want to match anyway and we'll end up with nothing in return.
That said, teams do make trades often based on popular perception rather than in depth analysis. Russell Westbrook is still perceived around the league as an excellent defender, while any Thunder fan who watches the games knows he is not.