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It’s no secret. Kevin Durant has not been playing like Kevin Durant through five games. He’s still averaging 26.4 points per game, but it’s on 37.4 percent shooting, including 28.6 percent from 3. (That 0-10 game really threw things off.)
Durant has been a bit of a slow starter the past few years and typically, he hits a stretch around the middle of December where he absolutely becomes unguardable. Last season, he averaged around 25 ppg on mediocre averages before launching into that ridiculous scoring fest where he put up 25 points or more in 29 straight games. He had a stretch where he averaged 32 ppg on 50-50-90 shooting for over a month. So don’t fret. KD’s just a slow cooker.
Though the one interesting thing I’ve notice is how Durant is being used a little different. For instance, the past two games against the Clippers and the Blazers, Durant took just eight total free throws combined. Consider that last season, he attempted over 10 a game and led the league. KD is a fantastic scorer, but he does it so efficiently because he gets to the line and makes his free throws.
But currently, he’s settling. And therefore, he’s not seeing any of those easy looks.
For example, so far this year Durant is attempting just 3.8 field goal attempts at the rim, down from a career average of over five. He’s taking more 3s and more shots from 16-23 feet than ever. He’s still being assisted on a regular amount of shots, but there are more isolation plays and more jumpers.
Though honestly, a lot of the issue is, the ball just isn’t going down. Durant doesn’t miss 10 consecutive shots from 3 very often. But it has happened. Last season, he went through a stretch where he missed 14 straight spanning three games.
The concern, albeit a small one, is that he’s not getting to the stripe with any regularity. It’s mainly an issue from the lack of ball movement for the Thunder and bad spacing. Durant doesn’t have anywhere to drive and create contact, therefore, he can’t get to the line. Plus, he’s forcing the issue a bit himself, trying too hard to be aggressive. Which is part of the reason his turnovers are at 24 through five games.
Against the Blazers, the Thunder kept trying to post Durant at the top of the key for an isolation on Nicolas Batum. It worked to some degree, but only on a few possessions. Instead of running sets where KD curls off screens and pops off pin-downs, it was all one-on-one. That type of stuff works a lot for the likes of Kobe Bryant and Carmelo Anthony, but Durant is more deadly getting the ball on the move. Obviously developing that isolation game will make him that much better and when you’re 6’11 and you can shoot over any defender, I’ll take it, but I feel like there was better offense to be had.
Another aspect is that KD is pressing. He’s trying a bit too hard to live up to expectation. He’s trying a little too hard to be a star. He’s trying to hard to be The Leader. Understandable too, because he’s heard about it all summer. It’d be hard to hear about how you’re going to be the MVP and then to not go out and try and play like it. He’ll settle in soon enough.
(Two things I’m adding because I just thought of them: 1) John Krolik who is nothing short of brilliant pointed out to me that KD hasn’t been able to use the Rip Move much and maybe that’s directly related to his jumper not falling. To my count, Durant has only used the rip successfully just once this year. And 2) I think here’s another situation where Nick Collison is so helpful. Durant coming off a Collison screen is just that much more open than Durant coming off a Jeff Green or Serge Ibaka screen.)
All of this will be straightened out soon enough because Durant is too much of a basketball player to go very long. The miracle of it all is that the Thunder is still 3-2 despite KD’s struggles. The Thunder offense hinges almost exclusively around Durant’s shot-making and playmaking ability, but because of Russell Westbrook’s stellar play and some scrappy offense from Jeff Green, Serge Ibaka and others in a few spots, the Thunder’s done enough to get it done.
Both the offense and defense have been issues for OKC this season and we saw both start to get sorted a bit against the Blazers. The two didn’t work in concert very often, but the offense clicked in the first half to keep OKC in it while the defense is eventually what got the job done in the second.
Things need to improve though. The game against the Blazers was nice, but it doesn’t mean everything is all well, good and fixed. The offense still lacks movement and fluidity (OKC ranks dead last in assists per game) and the Thunder has to quit playing so much one-on-one, selfish basketball.
Once they figure out those things, which in turn will help get Durant straightened out, we should be pretty darn all right.
@jdstorm
Maybe so. We'll find out.
@Crow
I wouldn't worry about the assist level right now. I think this team has been feeling the weight of expectation, and everyone is trying to step up. they just assumed too much individual responsibility and forgot to trust each other.
After the win against the blazers i think its starting to come together and everything will be fine going forward
I have anerexia problems
If you look at assist ratio [ the percentage of a player's possessions that ends in an assist. Assist Ratio = (Assists x 100) divided by [(FGA + (FTA x 0.44) + Assists + Turnovers] ] Westbrook is currently in the bottom quarter for minute qualifying PGs. Last season he was slightly above the median.
On rebound rate Ibaka is middle of the pack among PFs in the west, Green 3rd from last, Krstic middle of the pack for centers.
Ibaka 10th best on PER among minute qualifying PFs, that is if you count him there. Green 33rd. PER is flawed but PER works to the volume shooter's advantage.
Props to Westbrook for his overall individual stats.
The league lowest assists already noted by the article but to extend on that they are down about 30% from last season.
And per minute,
Westbrook down 20%
Durant down 40%
Green down 67%
Harden down 50%
Ibaka down from near zero to zero
Krstic down 30%
Maynor down 40%
Thabo up 30%
I guess a bit less points from 2 pt locations.
More food for thought. If interested.
From 08-09 to 09/10 the Thunder improved by 4 pts (1 more 3 pointer, 2 more points at the line and I guess a little diverted away from elsewhere), 1 reb, 1 block and had 1.5 less turnovers per game.
How much will they gain... as a team... this season?
So far the change is same on pts, -1.5 3 ptrs made, about 7 more FTs made,1 more rebound, 1 less block and 1 less turnover.
On a simple efficiency differential the Thunder bigs are doing about average overall. 7 western teams are better.
Right now the perimeter is getting beaten. 12 western teams are better. In 22nd place and responsible for 75% of the team's average efficiency margin loss vs its opponents while the bigs account for the other 25%.
I guess both the Hornets have 1 big with 15 shots and 2 with 5-6 shots per game. But both are bottom 8 in total number of shots coming out of the PF and C positions. Does that matter? Maybe not give who else is low on that and how they've done recently. Some concerns and details are more visual differences than winning issues. Stat and advanced stat analysis can help with that kind of thing. It is not simple.
On second look the Thunder do have 3 guys with 5.6 - 6 shots per game, just below the threshold I initially selected. It could still be wise in the long-run to lift those guys over that line.
Do the shots help inspire him more to play to win, instead of just playing to not mess up on defense like a lot of young bigs find themselves? It could matter though of course it is no guarantee of success either place.
Perimeter players don't feed bigs as often as I'd like or probably they could. They have the first and most frequent opportunities to get theirs and that is what tends to have greater priority, until you are a highly paid vet on a good team and don't face much immediate economic and minute pressure. Or you have a coach that makes getting enough shots for the bigs an enforced priority.
Offense and defense. Stats and psychology / sociology. Players and coaching. There is a lot to consider.
His defense was terrible previously. It is still terrible at PF but it has good at Center there so far. Position matters for some guys on defense. As does who you play with and under.
@Sammy
Jason Smith is a big that made a little noise as a rookie then was lost in the sea. They are getting him more shots, he is hitting more of them, and passing better too. How much is him playing for his next contract and how much is better system / coaching is hard to say without a lot of watching and analysis.
The players are highly paid professionals and they have the knowledge to fix many problems.
Not everything, so you have coaches.
That 75% of players and coaches don't achieve elite status is a product of the competition and sometimes missing stuff that might have made them better.
Todd:
"I’ve had the sense several times these first five games that, in contrast to much of last season, they’ve been playing not to lose more than playing to win."
It can happen and can be a problem. Different from last season but most of them have probably dealt with that concern / experience in their playing careers at lower levels to some degree, so they should be able to address that feeling themselves in addition to whatever the coaching staff says and does.
Miami tried but Dampier wanted more money than they had.
@shiki=4 seasons
Dampier is expected to sign soon with the Rockets because they offered the most money, years and minutes. Waiting on trying to trade someone since they are at the 15 man limit.
Since the Boston-Chicago game has a few rookie bigs I checked how Aldrich ranks among them. I won't go to far into right now but he was median on minutes, low on shots but good on FG%.
Is there a tie between getting shots and having incentive to play good defense? Sometimes. Is there a tie between putting tons of efforts into your individual offense and being tired / resting on defense? Sometimes. Of course the highly paid management should bring out the good and avoid or eliminate the bad.
That starting lineup has 4 guys between 10-15 shots per game, 3 others over 6.
The Thunder have 3 at or over 15, nobody else over 6.
Why not heat sign Dampier?They need big man to against Lakers and Celtics.
Hornets starting lineup is one of the best big minute lineups in the league right now.
How to describe that lineup? Premier passer- premier 3 pt shooter- versatile but low prominence SF- complete PF- good rebounding Center.
@Sammy
They will go as far as Chris Paul will take them. He is amazing.
@Sammy
*Obviously meant Jason Smith, not Josh Smith
@shiki=4 seasons
It should be Okafor.
Maybe it is the best game in Okafa's career.
Huge win for the Hornets. Wow. Is this team really a force to be reckoned with? It’s just hard for me to imagine that a team that gives heavy minutes to Bellinelli, Willie Green, and Josh Smith is a force to be reckoned with. But they are playing some great basketball right now.
@Todd
digging ourselves a hole the first 25 games is still a bad idea though, if we beat portland and utah that will go a long way in the division race. Anything better than 1-3 in our next 4 is ok though, i really only expected a 5-5, 6-6 start because of schedule difficulty.
@shiki=4 seasons
his english is good enough now, but green will probably "guard" him, but going big would help us, green at SG like he did against kobe, he is a decent perimeter defender and is fast enough to slow allen down. ibaka at PF against garnett and aldrich at center against davis/ J oneal
Maybe starting a bit slow and finishing strong is how KD typically operates. Remember the h-o-r-s-e competition a couple of years back when it looked like he was done for? After he finally hit a couple of those long range bombs to turn things around, he said, "slow roaster." Like Royce says in the article, he's pretty much done the same thing the past few years. He'll be fine.
The team in general seems to be missing a little something yet, although they looked better against Portland. I'll take searching for an answer when you're 3-2 instead of 2-3 or worse. It's probably some combination of things, none of which are major issues, but I suspect some of it is simply the glare in the eyes from that giant, bright spotlight they're dealing with now. It might take a little while to learn how to adjust and ignore that, and get back to just playing ball again.
I've had the sense several times these first five games that, in contrast to much of last season, they've been playing not to lose more than playing to win. This last game against Portland was different in that respect. The fourth quarter against Chicago was the same way, and there have been other flashes here and there. But this last game was really the first time this season that they seemed more like themselves to me. That's a good sign, despite the struggles.
I think they'll be fine. If there's one thing this group has proven the last few years, it's that they're resilient and adaptable. Like Royce pointed out the other day, the season was something like 25 games old last year before they really hit their stride. There are some differences this year, including working some new faces into the rotation, and also that glaring spotlight thing. But the details aren't as important as overall attitude and belief, and this team has both of those in the right place. That's why I think they'll be fine in the long run.
I am watching Celtics VS Bulls game.KG is more aggressive than last season.It is a tough work to guard him for Green and Ibaka.
I hope Ibaka to guard him because maybe he doesn't know what KG says
Yeah it was 9 assists, the Heat broadcast mentioned it was the most assists in a quarter by a Heat opponent I think.
@Sammy
yahoo showed 9 assists in the 1st qtr, im glad he is on my fantasy team
8 assists and a steal in the first quarter. Playing alongside scrubs. David West wasn't even in the game most of the quarter. When he's on like he's been tonight, he's the most entertaining player in the universe and it's not even close.
Sammy :I don’t think I’ve ever seen any point guard as good at probing a defense from the inside out as Chris Paul is.
Came here to say this. He makes guys like Jason Smith look like legit NBA rotation players. Definitely the best PG in the NBA.
@Sammy
trade maynor, harden and green and clippers and our 1st rd picks for chris paul. slidw RW to the two.
I don't think I've ever seen any point guard as good at probing a defense from the inside out as Chris Paul is.
@justin
i really wish we could trade for hibbert
@justin
He's playing as good as any non-Howard C in the league right now.
I'm watching Bucks / Pacers and Roy Hibbert looks about ten thousand times better than the last time I saw him.
@Crow
yeah it is a much better matchup then shaq, might get lucky with injuries again, green has speed on garnett and needs to talk him to the rim. Really as a whole we so much younger we should try and run them out of the building.
That O'Neil being Jermaine O'Neal.
Ibaka vs Davis and O'Neal should be interesting. By the average numbers he should out board them but I don't know.
@Peter
ah man, i believe dang yo just messin'
am i rite or am i right?
yo dang,
give up the down low
on the dang yo low blow
bro...
the sarcasm meter ain't workin right
least for some it seems so
@Crow
provided glen davis plays center ibaka should be able to guard him fairly well.
DangYo :
KD should be traded while he still has some value.
for oden straight up.
@DangYo
that cold.
don't go trading my pup.
you might mess up Jeff Green's groove.
can't have that. for reals.