Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty Images
One of my favorite basketball sayings comes via the always excellent Stan Van Gundy who said to write the story with the ball in the air. I heard that used for the first time by Tas Melas on a Basketball Jones episode recently and it made total sense to me. Too much sense.
And if you were doing that in Oklahoma City Saturday night, your story would’ve looked like this: Kevin Durant didn’t shoot well at all; the Thunder’s defense was absolutely awful; OKC’s offense was elementary against a poor defensive team; and really, the Thunder didn’t deserve to have a chance to win.
Except KD sunk a beautiful fade-away 3 and we all went home happy. Just like that Durant had a wonderful game, the sins of the first half were forgotten and the Thunder had just won a great game. Again, I love that quote.
But here’s the thing: Even the Thunder’s game-winning play kind of stunk. They didn’t execute properly and what OKC wound up with was a near impossible shot from 3-point range at the buzzer. So if you’re writing the story with the ball in the air, you’re probably saying something about how poor a shot the Thunder got at the end of regulation.
Regardless, it went down and it was a great player making a great player. But for fun, let’s break this baby down.
The play was drawn up for Nick Collison to rub Danilo Gallinari off of Kevin Durant and give him space to work. I don’t think it was drawn up for KD to shoot off the catch, because that means the shot would’ve gone up with four seconds left.
But here’s what I don’t like about this play already. KD is catching the ball moving away from the bucket. He’s not a great ball-handler to start with and on the catch, he’s going to be headed straight for the sideline. Collison’s pick doesn’t work though as Gallinari skates right by it, so the point is moot. Also, it’s pretty clear from this shot that the Thunder didn’t have a section option if KD was covered. Thabo isn’t involved, Jeff Green is just standing and I guess Westbrook using a drive is the secondary play.
KD has to make a slight move to come back and get the ball. Here’s the thing: Collison’s pick was so bad, after watching this 20 or so times, I started to wonder if it was designed that way. Collison sets great screens and he didn’t get any of Gallinari here. And the way KD comes back to get the ball, maybe this was a little wrinkle to play to get KD in isolation. That’s just a guess though.
The big mistake here by the Knicks was not running an extra defender at Durant. Amar’e Stoudemire makes sense, but I figured Felton would double KD on the catch right away. That would’ve forced KD to swing it back to Westbrook and probably meant Westbrook was taking a 20-footer at the buzzer. Instead, Felton stood aimlessly just watching like you and me.
Durant has a lot of trouble when two defenders swarm him because he’s not a good enough ball-handler to get by a double. Most teams do this when OKC tries to iso. New York didn’t.
As for where we’re at in the “play,” I think this what Brooks’ plan. KD has the ball alone on the wing with Gallinari on him. Collison’s screen may have been an effort to get Ronny Turiaf to switch onto KD, but still, Gallo isn’t a great defender. The only issue is I think the play was intended for Durant to get the ball a little closer to the rim. Instead, he’s at the 3-point line.
Money. And as you’ll notice, the most crucial part of this whole breakdown is KD’s swaggin’ after he nailed it.
You can’t always write the story with the ball in the air when a player the caliber of KD is taking the shot. Because even bad shots are pretty good ones. As evidenced Saturday night.
Yeah Gallo said he thought KD would drive so he came off him a little. Apparently he's never seen a Thunder game and didn't realise we take every semi-sane option and toss it out the window.
Look at the picture people. The shot was hardly contested. Gallinari clearly was back a couple feet so KD couldn't drive. KD did fade-away, but the shot was nowhere near as contested as you guys are alledging. If you look at the picture at the top of this post, it's as clear as day. Gallinari is pretty much a spectator. He's 3 feet away and didn't even have a hand in KD's face. I was at the game and the play took place right in front my seats, what a shot!
"I don’t think it was drawn up for KD to shoot off the catch, because that means the shot would’ve gone up with four seconds left."
You havent watched enough Thunder games if you think that. For some reason Scott Brook doesnt manage last second shots well. for exampl Game 2 of the Laker Series Inbounds and shoots immediately leaving 6 seconds on the clock that had KD scored Kobe in LA would have driven to the hwole and got a foul and won the game.
A recent loss here in OKC where KD about 5 feet beyond the 3 point line shoots while being double teamed and there were still seconds on the clock where he could have got a better shot.
Joe :
I guess New York was in the basketball version of the “prevent defense”, where everyone stays home and nobody is allowed to stunt or gamble, so the soft underbelly is always available.
For what its worth, Clyde Frazier on the MSG broadcasts constantly berates the Knicks for their soft late game defense. Last season when KD got the open look for the tying three off Collison's screen, Clyde was going off (for him). "C'mon man, it's the end of the game, you should be switching!".
One thing about that study that Rohan acknowledges in the comments: since the shot clock is reset on every offensive rebound, a team that gets a lot of putbacks (or putback attempts) is going to look much faster by the Speed Index than they would otherwise. I think I'd be more interested in a chart that eliminated FGAs after ORebs altogether.
Don't know if this has been talked about yet, but fascinating and necessary reading: http://www.sbnation.com/nba/2011/1/24/1952725/nba-pace-speed-spurs-suns-knicks
The thunder ran a play like this that worked/looked much better against the knicks last year that had kd hitting a 3 to send it into overtime. Brooks had kd inbound the ball, in this instance, to westbrook and he dribbled it to the far side. When westbrook got there, kd moved towards him and collison came up to set a high screen and allowing kd with enough room to drill a 3 from the top of the arc. I think gallanari was on kd this time too. It was a solid screen from collison and they didnt switch in time, if memory serves me correct, to get a hand into durant. Holla.
@Joe
feltons brain didnt work the last few mins of the game, lots of missed shots as well
I guess New York was in the basketball version of the "prevent defense", where everyone stays home and nobody is allowed to stunt or gamble, so the soft underbelly is always available.
I agree that it was baffling to me why New York didn't send a second defender once KD had the catch. He's had many a 5 turnover night and if the NYK had a scouting department they were proud of they would know that we nearly always, always let KD shoot the last shot. There's been very few exceptions (the one notable I can think of is the Green shot last year against GS); and even that one was a broken play.
I don't think this play is nearly as bad as you all are making it out to be.
1. The play was designed to take up the full 6 seconds. Hitting KD on his way to the rim (or any player for that matter) leaves too much time on the clock in the event he misses. In a tie game you want all the time off the clock. It's all about highest reward for least risk there. If they were behind, you lean towards the more efficient shot, but they weren't.
2. The one thing you don't want is your shooter having to fight off a double team when making a move. If the double came on the catch, there is enough time to pass out and create, but if KD dribbles into the double then that's the worst that could happen. The players never cross each other leaving no room for a defensive switch, which means no possibility of doubling instead of switching. The way this play was designed leaves the spacing in a situation where the knicks, if they planned on doubling, would have to make a dramatic and obvious move to leave their man to go and double the shooter. Every thunder player is positioned to go straight to the rim if their man leaves them. That's great spacing to avoid the double team.
3. KD said himself that the defense pushed him further than he wanted to go. Which infers that the play was designed for KD to take an elbow jumper or a runner. In the end, they got their best shooter against single coverage, which isn't that bad.
I realize with everyone else that we're still looking at a one on one play that ended in a somewhat contested 3 pointer. It's not awesome, but given the clock situation and the spacing-to-avoid-the-double, it's not a bad design.
KD shot a contested 30 footer with 11 seconds left against Memphis about 3 weeks or so ago. There's no way on earth that's what was designed in the huddle. I'm reminded of that old saying "I buy you the books, send you to school, and all you do is eat the pages". As cliche as it is around here to say it, sometimes players do have to make plays.
@walker
Thats a good point, really the only end of game "good" shots we've gotten are when KD doesn't get the ball, because everyone knows KD is getting the ball. Thats why Green has had more game winners, he gets much easier shots than KD
It was a win,thats what counts.We never get a good shot because everyone knows KD is getting the ball.He should get the ball,hes our best player.You win or lose with your best.
I was just afraid he would jack up the 30 footer as soon as he caught it. Durant usually panics and just takes the first shot he can get up. He showed uncharacteristic patience in that moment by taking a few dribbles and getting a better shot.
@Royce Young
i dont think durant hits a lot of bad shots, he tends to miss when he starts chucking up ill advised shots, even his "heat check" 3s are not falling nearly enough for it to be worth it.
Doc and Popovich are the best at drawing up plays late in games. Its not even close.
It was an awful play. If you wanna see some GREAT crunch-time execution look at Doc Rivers and the Celtics. I'm sure the Lakers could execute great plays but Kobe wants to be the man so its iso-kobe. Pick-and-Roll with Gasol or Odom would be good for example.
@AC
definitely a terrible shot, but how much more pissed would you be if KD drove and turned it over, like he is prone to do, and we didn't even get a shot.
Honestly I would rather run plays for Westbrook at the end of games. a pull up 15-20 foot jumper from him seems like a much higher percentage play than getting the ball to Durant 28 feet from the basket.
@justin
No doubt, I agree that it was a bad shot. But that's the good thing about having a player like KD is that he can hit bad shots.
Not too many times do you see a perfectly executed play with a clear look for a superstar at the buzzer. What you see is Carmelo Anthony hitting a contested corner 3, Kobe drilling a tough fadeaway or LeBron hitting an impossible leaning jumper.
Again, the shot stunk, the play was bad and the execution was worse. But that's why you want great players like KD. Because he can make a shot after all of that.
This shot infuriated me (until it went in). Whether it was drawn up like that or not, it is so maddening that a contested 3pt shot would be the best one the Thunder could take in a tie game, and it happens all the time. They only need one point to win - try a two, try to drive, even try to get fouled, try anything besides one of the lowest percentage shots in basketball. It's no wonder that KD has only a handful of game winning shots. He's going to hit some of them, i mean, he's KD, but he's not going to hit a ton, if that's the shot he's going to be taking.
I'd agree with your conclusion if KD hadn't missed countless shots like this at the end of games, quarters, halves, shot clocks, etc. Surely we can get our best player better looks in crunch time.
Is it just me or do the pictures not show up?