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We’re half way through this season. Seems like it was September just a few months ago, doesn’t it? Well, I guess that’s true. But you get the point.
And you know what halfway through means. It means the Thunder’s played 41 games. It also means it’s time to do one of those cliche review the season posts.
But after 41, I think we’d all agree that we’re happy with the Thunder’s 27-14 record. Right now it has OKC sitting third in the West, meaning the Thunder would have home court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs. In fact, it would mean if the Thunder advanced, it’s possible they’d have home court in the SECOND round too.
If the season ended right this second, OKC would be taking on the Hornets in the opening round of the playoffs. That’d be fun, right? I think our dislike for Chris Paul might reach atmospheric heights if the Thunder played the Hornets in a seven-game series. I might have to go to counseling.
FIRST HALF MVP
I maintain that Kevin Durant still is the MVP of this team. He’s the leader. He’s The Man. But I think it’s also clear that the Thunder wouldn’t be 27-14 without the outstanding play of Russell Westbrook. Not to say KD has been bad or even not excellent, but Westbrook has played big in so many big ways.
Durant is still the team’s best player and I think when the season comes to a close he’ll be in the top three in the MVP voting, but to this point, Westbrook has been the Thunder’s MVP. Over the past months, it’s been Durant. But Westbrook is what got OKC through November and some of December with its head above water.
MOST ENCOURAGING ASPECT
The Thunder’s in third place in the West! First place in the Northwest! They’re four games ahead of last season’s 50-win pace! Those are very good things!
Before the season, I think a lot of us felt like the expectations for the team had been taking to an insanely high level. People were talking about the No. 2 seed, Western Conference Finals, MVP trophies and all that stuff. We all said, “Hey, I think getting the six-seed in the West and maybe winning 50 again would be a great year.” Well guess what? That’s probably going to happen, plus the other stuff that seemed so far out there is still in play.
The team is one of the best in the league at winning close games, they’ve beaten good teams and they win on the road. Players have shown improvement (specifically Westbrook and Serge Ibaka) and the team is right in the mix for home court and possibly 55-60 wins.
But here’s the most encouraging thing: I don’t think the Thunder’s playing anywhere near to what they’re capable of. They’re better than this. And yet, they’ve sort of overachieved, according to most of our expectations. Weird, huh?
MOST DISCOURAGING ASPECT
The Thunder had a very nice first 41. But something was just… off. That’s not just me was it?
Oh I know what it was. Defense. The Thunder’s kind of stunk at it.
Last season, that’s what this team built a winner on. They defended. Actually they didn’t just defend, they swarmed. They hounded. They played a full 48 minutes of lock down defense and routinely held opponents to under 100 points. Last season, they allowed 100 points or more in 37 games. This season, that number is at 25 already. The Thunder’s in the bottom half in defensive efficiency and while every now and then we see that stifling defense, it’s such horribly inconsistent.
The team is winning, yes. But the way they’re winning just feels discouraging. They shoot and make lots of free throws, don’t defend that well and though their offensive numbers say they’re a good offensive team, really what they do is just let KD and Russ try and operate. The team doesn’t look like a dominant group. They win lots of close games and beat most of the teams they should. Good things, yes, but also reasons to feel like things aren’t as good as they might appear.
THREE BIG QUESTIONS
1. Will the Thunder make a move at the deadline?
I think so, yes. But it won’t be anything big. I could see a trade moving an expiring deal (Morris Peterson) for future assets or maybe another player for a sensible contract. And even still, I’m like 51/49 on thinking even that happens.
I get it. Most of you out there want Sam Presti to make a trade. You see the needs and the reasons to bring in help. I see a lot of those same things. But I’ll say it again for the five millionth time: That’s not the plan. Presti is going about things much differently. Other general managers make that scramble move to try and capitalize on a good season. A lot of times, that’s what takes a team over the top. But Oklahoma City is operating under the Spurs model. How many deadline blockbusters can you think of that San Antonio pulled?
Presti wants this group to grow together. He likes to evaluate after the season finishes. Unlike fans, Presti isn’t thinking about the here and now. Of course he wants a team that can win and compete now, but he’s thinking about next season and the next season. He has decisions to make this offseason with Jeff Green and a contract extension for Russell Westbrook so he’s not going to do anything that directly affects those decisions.
2. Will the Thunder win the Northwest?
I think so, yes. Utah isn’t as good as everyone thought they would be. They’re currently tied with OKC, but the Jazz drop games to bad teams. Their schedule has been a bit easier than the Thunder’s to this point and Utah’s roster, while very good, seems to be missing a piece to the puzzle.
The trump card they do possess is Jerry Sloan though. He will have his team ready every night. I think Scott Brooks is a good coach, but he’s not Jerry Sloan. This race will be tight to the finish and probably only a game or two will separate the winner from second. I think 55 wins takes the Northwest and I see OKC as having a better opportunity to get there.
3. Should Scott Brooks adjust the starting five?
I think so, yes. (See my theme?) He won’t, but I think we’re getting close to at least trying it. I’m fine with starting Thabo Sefolosha and Jeff Green as long as the other rotation players see enough minutes. Thabo can start as long as James Harden gets at 25-30 minutes. But that doesn’t seem to be happening routinely.
So maybe a shake-up is needed. Again, it’s not happening and it feels weird to say it because the team is playing well and winning. I asked the question back in November if Serge Ibaka should start and I was undecided. I’m still undecided, but I’m really leaning towards yes. Seeing your starting power forward overmatched from the tip night in and night out gets kind of old. Jeff Green has a place on this roster and I’m still a fan of re-signing him (if the price is right). But it might be time to reconsider his role.
Again, it’s not happening, but I can promise you Brooks is at least thinking about it.
STAT CHECK
(Via commenter Sammy, some midseason stats, compared to last season)
Offensive efficiency:
10-11: 107.2 (7th)
09-10: 105.8 (19th)
Defensive Efficiency:
10-11: 104.8 (16th)
09-10: 101.6 (8th)
Four Factors:
eFG%
10-11: 48.85 (18th)
09-10: 49.36 (19th)
Opponent eFG%
10-11: 50.49 (20th)
09-10: 48.34 (5th)
Free Throw Rate
10-11: 37.9 (2nd)
09-10: 33.3 (6th)
Opponent Free Throw Rate
10-11: 30.2 (12th)
09-10: 30.0 (14th)
Turnover Rate
10-11: 12.82 (3rd)
09-10: 13.9 (24th)
Opponent Turnover Rate
10-11: 13.67 (14th)
09-10: 14.00 (7th)
Offensive Rebound Rate
10-11: 26.15 (13th)
09-10: 28.6 (3rd)
Opponent Offensive Rebound Rate
10-11: 26.4 (18th)
09-10: 26.44 (17th)
@gokc
Trick question. We don't start a PF but 2 SFs.
Question... how do jg thabo and nenad really. Stack up statwize to the rest of the league that starts at their position? Green probably has some of the worst numbers for starting pfs... Royce.. someone have an answer
Some of these trade scenarios are pretty ridiculous. If we're going to trade (for love for example), we do not need to put ourselves in the same situation we are now, playing a talent player big minutes out of position and making their actual worth completely nullified. That's probably our biggest problem right now (other than Thabo starting over Harden). If we could trade for Nene for a fair price, I'm all for it, if we could dump Thabo for Aflalo, I'm all for it, but almost any other trade scenario I can think of doesn't do us a lot of good in the long run. If someone could just get in Brooks' ear and get him to bench Thabo and Green, I'd be more than content with that being the only move we make for the rest of the season.
@Keith
I read that Prokhorov said it was wasting the team's time and resources, and that it was also costing them wins. Good for him to stand up like that.
@Keith
Good question. I hope, for the nets sake, it was the latter.
@RonMexico
Does that mean Melo refused to sign an extension with them, or that Prokhorov is tired of Denver throwing around the weight it doesn't have?
@RonMexico
I think this ups the chances of us being included in a 3 team deal between maybe the Knicks and Denver for Melo (and Nene!).
@RonMexico
guess that means melo to the knicks...and jeff green can go to the nets for favors(i wish)
Prokhorov tells Nets to walk away from Carmelo deal..says decision is final.
@Dylan’s Meth Addicted Mother
Look kids, The Don is out of his hole again!
@Keith
well their GM was jerry west and pau went to the lakers, thats pretty much cheating, maybe cho could help us out give us batum for cook.
Why won't the Grizz just give us Gasol? They don't utilize him, they dumped his brother for beans, and generally don't have any idea what they are doing. Just give us Gasol, we'll trade you a bust, a second rounder, and matching salary too.
lol, im sure that violates the CBA somehow, or the nets would have gotten melo, wade and bosh
@f5alcon
I mean, they could work at Chesapeake in the off-season right? Highest paid "secretaries" ever?
@gr8ball83
too bad they cant pay for players to come here circumvent the cap, give them stock or something
@f5alcon
Yeah, I was surprised when I saw what a small percentage of CHK's stock Aubrey actually owned. I'm catching up to Ward on the SD stock. Extremely slowly mind you.
@gr8ball83
yeah only 81 million dollars worth now, used to be a few billion, ward has about 161 million in sandridge.
@Dylan’s Meth Addicted Mother
i agree, i know we cant have love
@f5alcon
Aubrey doesn't actually own that much CHK stock anymore. Had to sell off most of it back when it took a nose dive
justin :
It’s fascinating to me that there are fans of this team that do not want a trade or talent acquisition at all. Do those fans honestly believe that this roster, as is, will develop into a contender?
Yes, they do! You are looking at this from a long-term NBA basketball fan. You forget that the basketball IQ of the average fan here in OKC isn't comparable to the rest of the league. We're still in college mode and enjoying college age players to boot. Remember justin, we fell in love with THIS TEAM, not just A TEAM. We want to believe that THIS team can do it. This attitude will change with time, and as people here in OKC become more sophisticated in basketball acumen.
f5alcon :
@Dylan’s Meth Addicted Mother
You can do the same thing for green and it is just as horrible
That's a good point, and why I would obviously trade Green for Love in a heartbeat. But that is not what we have on our hands here, since it will take much more than just Green to acquire Love. And what it will take to acquire him will not be worth it for us
@slackjaw
well chk stock is way up so mclendon is making money hand over fist
@slackjaw
Big money doesn't always equal big success
i also hope okc owner gives the green light for big money aquisitions, i hope hes not a tight but
was he being sarcastic
innocent bystander :
Royce said:
“I get it. Most of you out there want Sam Presti to make a trade.”
Royce, you’re actually talking about the group that hangs around this board. They ARE NOT REPRESENTATIVE of OKC fans in general, IMO. Look at the crowds that attend the home games and you’ll see what most Thunder fans look like.
Very true. I think Cpt. C-Note is Mr. Average Thunder Fan. His posts are usually something like "Great job guys! Go Thunder!" "Tough loss. Go Thunder!" "Great write up. Go Thunder!"
they better do it or be missed oppurtunity . cole im sorry but he has no offennsive skills.
I have just posted a look at the NBA's top 61 centers and center/PF's. There just aren't that many good ones out there!
Explore the embedded Google Motion Chart and enjoy!
http://godismyjudgeok.com/DStats/2011/google-motion-charts/center-comparison-chart-and-k-means-clustering/
@justin
Didn't Nene talk about retiring after this contract is up?
@Dylan’s Meth Addicted Mother
You can do the same thing for green and it is just as horrible
@justin
Because of his attitude?
@Sammy
If Nene is extended then, yeah.
justin :
I would not take on Al Harrington for Nene.
Really? I would if Nene agrees to an extension. Seems a two more years of the midlevel for a mediocre stretch 4 who can hit threes seems a small price to pay to secure our final major piece.
gr8ball83 :@justin
I’m all for a talent acquisition, and I think everyone would love for the team to be better than they already are. I think a lot of the trade’s thrown around on here wouldn’t make the team better though.
I agree, not all the trades are good ideas... that's why they are discussed and debated. I'm talking about the idea that any trade is a bad trade.
Hey, DON. Were you abused as a child? And as an adult?
@justin
I'm all for a talent acquisition, and I think everyone would love for the team to be better than they already are. I think a lot of the trade's thrown around on here wouldn't make the team better though.
I think the most likely trade is for a shooter that is reasonably priced. Who fits that bill?
I would not take on Al Harrington for Nene.
to beat elites, team needs to bench thabo green simple. thy will still get 15 20 minutes.
meth ,man not disagreeing, we need this guy
gr8ball83 :@justin
Good thing playoff seeding isn’t determined by point differential and aesthetic quality of wins then huh?
What I'm saying is that, in my opinion, it's more likely the team's current W-L pace is more likely to come down than stay put based on how the team has played so far.
The point isn't that the team does not need to grow - the point is that even if the team does grow, the pieces are not correct. This team won't win a championship (or, really, come close) with the current set of players no matter how long they are allowed to develop.
The perspective that a trade is some kind of sacrilegious act that invalidates everything the organization (allegedly) stands for is just wrong. Acquiring a long term front court difference maker will not only make the team better, but make the development of players such Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka much more meaningful since their roles will be better defined.
It's fascinating to me that there are fans of this team that do not want a trade or talent acquisition at all. Do those fans honestly believe that this roster, as is, will develop into a contender?
@ATH
We have assets to send back that would be worth Nene alone. I'd rather wait for Denver to cave to the Melo deal then get Nene alone.
@slackjaw
You dare disagree with a meth addict?
well make love a center.
@f5alcon
It wouldn't matter how Harrington plays if we get Nene. I would take on five years of Sasha Vujacic for Nene.
green is gone next season . 100 % truth
Regarding innocent bystander's comment:
I think most of the fans he speaks of are new fans to the NBA... they don't understand what it takes to championships, nor do they spend their spare time reading NBA stuff, they would rather read about the states college teams. There are not
similar volumes of die hard, knowledgeable Thunder fans in OKC like there are blazer fans in Portland, jazz fans in salt lake city etc....
MESSAGE TO THE PEOPLE WHO WANT KEVIN LOVE ON THIS TEAM:
I want every single one of you to go through the box score of each Minnesota game this year and I want you to look at the stat line of the opposing team's PF. Then I want you to come back here and with a straight face tell us that you still want Kevin Love on this team in spite of what it will cost us to acquire him and then what it will cost us to retain him when his rookie deal is up.
Kevin Love is the punching bag of NBA PF's. He gets MUTILATED by every single PF he faces night in and night out. Opposing PF's routinely humiliate him and have career nights against his historically laughable defense.
Kevin Love can go straight to the fiery furnaces of hell, I want him nowhere near this team.
some trade needs to happen or okc will miss out.