Tuesday Bolts – 1.11.11

If you don't look at it yourself, I'll note that available for the minimum Mahinmi was 5th best in his first 3 years and went to rival Dallas. DJ White is top 10% in this group for this timeperiod. Low second rounder Jemeremy Evans picked up by rival Utah is 4th in very limited minutes. Amir Johnson was 11th. Brandan Wright is a "bust"... but still 12th on this list. Bust Sene was 46th. Bust Swift was 92nd. Bust Petro actually played way too much (almost 400 minutes in first 3 seasons) to fall into this category but if he did he'd rate about 100th.

If you also count decent players including those who perhaps provide positive defensive help the number of successes might be higher.

Here is the list if you want look at it
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/tiny.cgi?id=caro6

I looked at young big men who got less 2000 total minutes in their first 3 seasons over the last 10 years. There were about 220. I'd say less than 20% ever became "good". In very limited minutes Mullens and Aldrich currently rank in the bottom 10% of the group, but of course they really haven't had much of a chance yet. Maybe next season.

@Keith
yeah i think denver is asking too much the price keeps going up and they are gonna miss out.

@f5alcon
I think if that was still a serious concern, NJ wouldn't be as far along in talks as they are. I won't debate that Blake-Gordon is better than Lopez-Hamilton, but if that deal isn't on the table (Denver would likely demand Gordon at least), it doesn't matter.

@dan2
We have no size in the frontcourt to defend - Gasol isn't particularly athletic, but he's big and strong and plays smart. We have no scorers or passers in the post - Gasol does both, and does both well enough to garner serious defensive attention (unlike the rest of our guys who have probably never seen a double team in their NBA careers). Is he an elite rebounder? No, just like his brother he works hard but is better at holding position and getting the boards he should than grabbing everything around the court.

A lot of Gasol's perceived shortcomings are products of his team. His rebounding is down because Randolph's is up (he would easily average 10 a game for a team like ours). His scoring is low because the Grizz never go to him. He's the most most efficient player on the team yet only gets the 5th most shots (less than half what Gay or Randolph get). It's hard to look really good when your team doesn't give you a chance.

Maybe some are overvaluing thinking he's a truly elite center who can carry a team. But, if I already have Durant and Westbrook flanking him, he's certainly good enough to be the third best player on a championship team, and much better than anything we currently have.

@Keith
yeah i guess i am looking at it with melo not agreeing to an extension id he doesnt think the talent around him is as good, if he could go play with blake and gordon, thats a lot better than lopez, and rip,

@dan2
part of his rebounding numbers are because he plays next to ZR who is a great rebounder, gasol would be next to green, who isnt. even at his current reb% he would be our 2nd best rebounder besides serge. and he is 25 not 28

You guys way over value Gasol. He doesn't out rebound his oppenent and barely out scores them. He takes advantage of us but overall he isn't that great, and he is like 28.

@f5alcon
I think the Clips are too enamored with their own talent. Blake is their star. They don't want anything messing with that. From the rumours, Blake would be Denver's dream scenario, and I think anything less than him would be a bust compared to getting Favors/Harris. Also, Davis/Chauncey really isn't a great swap, since Davis is signed longer, has a long history of injuries, and is rarely motivated.

Ultimately, just look at the biggest recoups. Harris-Favors. Green-Jordan. Kaman isn't better than Nene, so I don't add either to the list. Harris-Favors is just better. I think if we want Nene, we need to insert as a 4th team (and really just so moving salaries are easier to match) or try a straight swap of our talent after the megadeal.

Don't ask me why, but I still have irrational hope that Gasol becomes available and we can out-bid another team in a trade. Randolph is their best player, hands down, and they won't be going anywhere without resigning him for big money. Certainly Gasol has been good, but I don't think it makes sense for them to be paying 10 million (possibly more with new CBA) over the cap for a non-contender (especially with other contracts needing extensions down the line.

@Keith
yeah, though could drop billups/davis swap, and add aminu, or jordan, and instead of thabo send green.

i guess im just more surprised they havnt made a move to try and get them, clippers have a ton of talent available.

On the one hand Murphy had his career best PER last season. On the other hand 4 different versions of Adjusted +/- all say he has an overall moderate to fairly large negative impact. He is not really ancient (not yet 31) but his best days or at least big minute days are probably behind him. I'll curious about what happens to him. In the right role he might contribute some worthwhile things somewhere. 20 minutes a game, preferably on a good defense team. That is not Detroit and it probably isn't OKC either. He'd make some sense on New Orleans to me, now or later.

@f5alcon
I would take NJ's offer over that, easily, on Denver's side. Davis is an albatross, Kaman is overrated, and none of the other players should be starters. Denver is set up for the future much better with Favors/Harris than Davis/Kaman. Nene, meanwhile, could be shopped separately for more than what we are sending in that deal.

how about the following:
nuggets:
send billups and melo to clippers, nene to thunder
get davis, kaman, thabo, nenad, white, and picks

thunder:
get nene
send thabo,krstic, white, pick

clippers get:
billups, melo
send davis, kaman, picks

@f5alcon
I think the Rip thing is all politics. Rip and Chauncey are bigtime friends, and NJ thinks both will play better together (and specifically Chauncey won't demand to be bought our or retire). Melo needs shooters and other leaders for his team to succeed, both Rip and Chauncey fit the bill. It doesn't make much sense, but Prokorov is stupid rich and probably not worried about cap space until Paul/Howard are on the market (Rip will be an expiring contract by then and Chauncey will be gone).

i dont get why we dont be the 3rd partner instead of Detroit, rip has such a bad contract, i dont see why they are so willing to take him

yeah id take murphy, worst case we dont resign him

@GAP
:)

@kfmsooner
I'm sure Detroit isn't really attached to him. Toss a single prospect and send less salary than you take and I'm sure we could have him. Detroit is (or at least should be) in rebuild mode, and Murphy isn't going to be signed long term.

I still wish we would take a shot with Murphy from NJ...I know he hasn't been great this year (not sure what the issue is between him and Avery), but he is just 1 season removed from a 14/10 season. He can't be that much worse than Green defensively and gives us another shooter. He'd be right there with Serge as the best rebounder per minute on the team, or at least as productive as Green/Krstic. IDK...just seems a waste to see him go to Detroit and not the Thunder...

@f5alcon
Would you take back Outlaw in lieu of sending Ibaka? I'm thinking I would give up a heck of a lot for a potentially elite young center.

Hahahah well I figured that he wouldn't be got for Cook, but hey, no harm in asking. I only follow the East sparingly though, my inspiration for asking came halfway from playing alongside him in 2k11, where, when he's aggressive with the ball and on the glass, he's unstoppable.

@J.G.
Million Dollar Man reference, priceless :D

@J.G.
I do agree. I don't think Lopez is truly untouchable, just that the asking price would be prohibitive to anyone trying. Lopez is worth more to the Nets than he is to other teams, so NJ would demand something in return that would be ridiculous. I think we could land Lopez for Durant or Westbrook, but that would kind of leave is the same boat we are now, being one star away. If Lopez was available for anything minus those two, I would do it, but I just can't see NJ accepting another trade.

@J.G.
yeah thats problem right, but is lopez available at a price we are willing to pay? harden+green+ibaka and picks might do it, but is that really worth it

@Keith
I think we just use the term "untouchable" a bit differently. The way I see it, there are only maybe 10 guys in the NBA that are truly "untouchable."

Everyone else, per DiBiase, "has a price."

@J.G.
i think keith is right in that he is the selling point for melo, if that falls through he might be available, but probably still not for a price i would pay.

green, maynor, aldrich are the only talent pieces id part with right now in most deals, i dont think white, mullens or cook have enough value except for salary reasons in a trade.

krstic and mo pete have some value and at least one is hopefully flipped by trade deadline.

and we have picks and future talent, in pleiss and lat will.

for lopez id give up harden as well, but not ibaka.

@J.G.
But isn't that all the more reason for NJ NOT to trade him and just roll with him and Melo going forward? If we, who probably don't follow the Nets much, can keep faith, I would think the team that already has him and plays him every night would think even more highly. But realistically, I just don't see what we could offer, even for his down year, given the circumstances. Without Lopez and Favors, they have no frontcourt - at all - worse than our own team. Lopez's status is essentially recession-proof in that situation.

@f5alcon
Well of course not, but if he continues to decline his "untouchable" status will turn into, "what are you offering?"

Though I for one would give up quite a bit for Lopez because I REALLY don't think his decline has anything to do with him becoming less of a ball player/impact and more to do with him being on a bad team in a rough situation.

@f5alcon
I think there is some middle ground between Durant/Westbrook and peanuts though

@Anonymous
we dont have a roster spot for him, and if we did, id rather give lat will the spot, he is earning it in the d league.

@J.G.
that still doesnt mean they are going to give him up for peanuts.

@Keith
Have you seen Lopez this year? If he keeps playing this horrendously, his price will continue to decline...

@JoCro
The Russian mafia, probably. Lopez is the centerpiece around which NJ is selling Melo a good team in the future. No way they trade him.

@JoCro
durant or westbrook.

I say we go after this one guy Dwight. Think he'd be a decent fill-in until we can nab Brian Scalabrine for a long-term job.

In all seriousness though, what would it take to get Brook Lopez away from the Nets?

From last year, his 2pt FG% is up from 52.4% to 54.8% this year. A notable jump, but I wouldn't want to pay the man unless I was sure that perimeter shot was gonna stick.

@justin

Inside of 10 feet. His 10-15 feet isn't so great, but he doesn't take a lot of shots there.

@Sammy

He doubled his 3pt attempts this year and his FG% went up. Chandler's making 80% of his shots at the rim and also shooting great from everywhere inside of 15 feet. He's been making everything.

@Sammy
I guess I shouldn't say that threes are the only thing that's different; he's rebounding slightly better, turning it over slightly less, and taking a slightly more possessions. But those improvements are nothing compared to what the 3p has done for his game.

The only thing that's really the same different between this year and his previous two seasons is his 3pt shooting. His increases in TS%, eFG%, and FG%, and PER can all be directly attributed to the fact that he's taking more threes (4.9 vs 3.1 career) and he's making them at a decent clip (37% vs 30.7% in the previous three years).

@Sammy
yeah even green had one good year from deep, what happened to him, if he shot 39% from 3 we would be great

I'm curious whether W. Chandler can keep up his perimeter shooting. He launches a lot of threes and this year is his first where he's making them at league average or better.

@DSMok1
that makes a lot more sense, WC is better than green

Coulda sworn Sammy said TC. Oooops!

WILSON Chandler:

$11,690,168 $13,361,914 $14,212,234 $14,253,731 $13,584,461

I thought that other comparison was odd!

@kfmsooner
at least the team will be rested tomorrow and maybe they are having productive practices

@justin
LOL I totally missed that. Yeah, okay, now the rapid decline makes sense.

@DSMok1
Interesting. Why the rapid decline?

@DSMok1
I wouldn't pay that for Green, but hopefully someone else will and generate a trade exception/draft picks for us that let us land a big time center...

@DSMok1

Wilson Chandler not Tyson Chandler!

I hate our schedule right now...3 days off, back to back, 3 days off...I was getting used to a game every day/every other day...