TGR #38: Thunder mid-season grades

I recently went to the trouble of noting that Green on the perimeter involves sacrifice that helps KD and Durant and that he could be better as a smaller minute backup. I've looked for better lineups for him before and complimented his inside and clutch shooting and a recent increase in assists, etc.

I've tried to be productive and constructive about it where possible and not overly repetitive or backward looking. I've said what I've said, meant it and think it fair and reasonable and sufficiently "productive" overall to say and don't find it "productive" to debate further.

Alright sas, glad it was useful to you.

I understand your perspective prye05. There can seem to be excess on one thing or another to some but it is hard to draw one line that works for everybody. As long as it stays on basketball some tolerance is useful.

@Crow
I didn't say you couldn't have a basketball opinion. But saying Green isn't ideal isn't exactly productive. If every team had the exact same roster what would be the point of basketball? My point is that Green might not be ideal but he's still someone on the Thunder, and is someone who is part of the reason the team is as good or bad as they are currently. Every player on this team and every team in the league has faults, and as such teams have faults, but the teams that win the championships are the ones that are able to put their faulty pieces into something that makes them better than other pieces collection of faulty pieces.

@Crow
I didn't expect exact last shots, your breakdown did show the crux of what I was interested in. While last shot numbers would be nice, general trends are also helpful. Thanks for the info.

Finding a replacement for some of the expiring contracts would be fine... if it happens- Krstic, Green, others. I doubt though they sign a significant new free agent this summer and it might be awhile before they do.

Moving project players and / or others for a player who would actually make a difference could be fine... if it happens. I doubt anything major will happen soon, especially out of the spare parts group.

The team design was heavily based on the draft and so far it appears probably based on keeping all or nearly all of those guys so a review of top draft picks and there long-term sufficiency is fair.

If Jeff Green had turned out as expected / hoped by management and most fans he'd likely have been my favorite Thunder player. But I didn't especially like Presti's choice of Green on draft day after getting Durant and said so then. I don't agree with the use of him at starting PF or the continued use of him near or 40 minutes a game. I try to avoid repeating myself much on this these days but occasionally it comes out.

Anyone can disagree as they will with anything, but I find anything even close to telling someone to stop saying a basketball opinion at a basketball forum or to focus on just the positive or the future a bit overreaching into someone else's freedom of speech but whatever.

Pointing out Green's deficiencies isnt hating on him. He has alot of good qualities that helps this team. Playing at PF isnt one of them. Coaches are to blame for keeping him in that role. When you have Ibaka, Collison, Nenad, White, Aldrich. Theres no reason we should continue to leave a mismatch at that position.

@Crow
Ideally, every team would have a great PG, one great Wing scorer, a defensive post player, a good all-around offensive post player, great role players, a smart coach, a good owner, fans that support the team, a good arena, a low cost, lots of trade assets, great health, everything like that, but this isn't an ideal world. We have the players we have until we don't have those players. Who cares if Jeff Green isn't the best shot in the world or can't always defend, right now we need him to help us win games, and he's doing a pretty good job of it. Instead of saying what an ideal situation is why don't we look at figuring out what would make a better use of what we have, such as finding a replacement for some of our expiring contracts or project players and creating a player who would actually make a difference. If Jeff Green leaves in FA then so be it, but as long as he's a part of the Thunder team I don't see the need to hate on him because he isn't the ideal PF. Is it really his fault that he might be a SF but just happened to be drafted to a team that already had Kevin Durant.

A tweener forward can work but it is rare. Ideally you'd be 6-9+, tough, with an above average shot. Green misses at having enough to be a successful starting tweener forward at PF. He could be a pretty good 25-30 minute backup tweener forward on a good team.

Both Green and Krstic play away from the basket, meant to open the lane for Durant and Westbrook. And they get less looks and less prime looks. They sacrifice credit and glory and money for Durant and Westbrook.

Krstic got 10+ shots in 17 of his first 46 games with the Thunder. Then it fell to 19 of 76 last season and now it is 7 of 41. Why? Well part of the reason is that KD and Westbrook shoot so much. What was the design for Krstic? 10+ shots or at least fairly frequently or not? Was the design for Westbrook to approach Iverson type usage?

Green as a starting PF is a bad idea and has since the beginning of that experiment or since the draft. A tweener forward on average is one of the least successful things in the league with James being the best and then it falls off to Thad Young. A tweener forward playing at PF is a worse idea, a tweener forward playing at PF without a strong Center is even worse.

@gr8ball83
There are only two times in the entire article that KD is listed:
"There have been several rookies deserving of All-Star selections since fans voted Yao Ming as the All-Star center in 2003: LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Chris Paul and Derrick Rose."

"For players like Griffin, Rose, Paul, Durant and James, All-Star status is like a scout badge: once earned, never cut off the uniform. Once bestowed, an annual event."

So don't go taken and saying that the Dougie quote is about Durant. There are lots of people in the NBA that do it. The Dougie quote "He's never come out to the Dougie in pregame warm-ups or done anything more than chew on his mouthpiece after a highlight-reel dunk." simply states that Griffin doesn't do those things. It's stating that unlike people like Lebron or John Wall or others who really like to be the center of attention, Griffin goes about his game in a humble hard working way, so please don't go making this into something it's not.

@prye05
Um, when pointing out Durant and specifically saying Griffin doesn't do the Dougie pregame, I think thats a little ridiculous. I think Durant is as humble and un-assuming as they come...

@gr8ball83
I don't think they are just calling out KD for the Dougie... in fact I think it might be a reference to fellow rookie John Wall who does all kinds of things to have fun at the start of games. The point of the article is simply that the author is pointing out the Griffin works hard, is humble, and doesn't go about trying to show other people up like some other people in the league. Though I think sitting out a year did give him a slight advantage other rookies might not have had (the atmosphere is different in the NBA then anywhere else, it's not something people just immediately adapt to always, especially in some big markets).

@justin
I personally would make a bigger issue over the fact that she went to Kurt Rambis for a quote, over the fact that she says she's never seen a coaches and players fall over themselves for a rookie before. Obviously, every year people go crazy over rookies, and obviously she listed a bunch of deserving rookies who didn't get an all-star nod, but the fact that she went to Rambis if the whole league is swooning over this guy, has to make you question some things.

@justin
Told ya it was dumb :)

gr8ball83 :KD called out for the Dougie? Dumb article:
http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/story?id=6088431

This writer has never seen coaches and players fall over themselves over a rookie like Griffin before? Is the author four years old?

@Mark
No big surprise. Even with the injury situation, he knows several teams would be willing to pay him more than $7.5 million per year.

KD called out for the Dougie? Dumb article:

http://sports.espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/columns/story?id=6088431

Perkins rejected a $30M/4Y extension offer from Boston.

I think it's very important for young players to show improvement. I'm not very down on guys like Thabo or Krstic because you know what you're going to get from them. Thabo's defense hasn't been as good but I never thought he was that terrific in the first place. Krstic has regressed a tiny bit compared to the last two seasons but I don't think anyone expected him to improve.

Harden hasn't done as much as I expected, but he's still improved many things. Maynor has been steady, but he hasn't done anything that he didn't do last season. Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are guys that have improved tremendously with some things. Jeff Green is 24 years old and has regressed for the second year in a row. That's not acceptable. Even if he is out of position, that suggests to me he's not working hard enough on his game. It bothers me.

A lot of these things might have to do with Russ becoming a 30+ USG guy.

Clutch as used here means- 4th quarter or overtime, less than 5 minutes left, neither team ahead by more than 5 points. I don't have the current shot data for very last shots of the game, so maybe I didn't answer your question appropriately. The FG%s for that are lower or much lower. It could be compiled off of play by play but somebody else will probably have to do it besides me.

@sas

For end of game clutch time shot attempts from most on down it is, when they are in the game: KD & Russ in a tie way way far ahead of everybody, then Green at only 40% of their attempt rate, then Krstic and Collison at 1/3rd less than Green, then Harden and Ibaka at 1/3rd less than Krstic and Collison. Harden should move up to 3rd or 4th.

Durant is not than really special as a clutch shooter yet but he alright. Really it looks like the team is pretty good on this. Maybe the bad cases stays in the memory too vividly.

Durant A- Shot selection
Westbrook A- Shot selection, out of control at times(speed), TO's, passing (Team management)
Sef- F No longer reliable on D, Offense?
Nenad- D plays small
Green- C- Shot selection at the 3, overmatched down low
Maynor-B+ Great bench leader, Needs to look to be more offensive minded
Collison-A- Reliable Defense, could be better at offense in the post, rebounding
Ibaka- B+ Improve on post move, gets lost at times on D
Harden- B Needs to stay confident shooting, work on going right and not staying at the 3 pt. line, finishing at the rim and dumb fouls
Cook- C- Keep knocking down shots more and more

Green is around a C average but he can be A-B+ a few games and D-F on others. He is very talented and athletic its hard to want to get rid of him. Not many players can fair well switching from being a natural 3 to 4
Only bad grades Id give is for Nenad D and Sef F

@sas
I would probably give Cook a C-. Averaging the first of the year and now. Just the fact that he spreads the court even when he couldnt hit a shot. Opponents still respect his shot. And he seems to have been gradually getting out of that funk.

At the end of the day wins mean more the stats, efficiency, or anything like that. Every single game is different, which means a different scouting report a different set of circumstances to compete against, and while there are some basic principles on defense teams don't exactly run the same offenses using the same players the entire game. So while every fan would love to see their team never miss a shot on offense, never turn it over, not allow a made basket, and get every rebound it doesn't happen. Personally, I think it's a bigger testament to this team that they are able to get wins without playing "good" basketball, it means that when put in the playoffs they'll have more understanding of doing what it takes to win. Sure habits like rebounding, closing out on shots, talking on defense are all things that people should be doing consistently, but the fact that the Thunder are winning close games and games that they aren't playing well speaks of the talent and potential of this team.

As a comparison people are talking as if the Lakers are collapsing because they lose a game here or there, or that the Heat can't win close games all the time. Sure the Celtics are playing a good game now... but if the older individuals don't hold up it's a whole different situation for them and the Spurs. Who knows what could happen to the landscape of the NBA in the next few weeks before the trade deadline. The point is as fans we shouldn't be unhappy with the way the team is playing too this point we should be excited that the team is finding a way to win even when they aren't playing perfect. That way if they do peak this year (hopefully it's during the playoffs) then this team could be downright scary. But grading them and evaluating every situation every team has flaws and every night is a different story... so winning ugly means a whole lot more than losing pretty. Yet more people will talk about Blake Griffin and Kevin Love than some of the game changing plays that players on teams like the Thunder make that while not highlights get the W.

@justin
Has/Will your grade for Cook go up if he continues to play like the past couple of games?

As I miss most games due to work (or at best, get to hear them on the radio), here's a question for you guys (but I'm especially interested to hear Justin and Crow's opinions on this): How much work has honestly been done on offensive play calls this season? I've only been following basketball seriously since the Thunder came to town, so my eye is somewhat limited. I suppose the point of asking comes down to this: In the previous thread, there has been discussion of Harden as an end-of-game shot taker. How much of that comes down to him either not being on the floor there? Maybe a better question is this: Out of all of the Thunder players, what is the breakdown for last-shot-taken? I'm going to guess most of the time it's KD/Russ with a decent sprinkling of Green in there. I'm just trying to figure out if the coaches are stubbornly calling plays for KD and Russ without looking at setting up anyone else at all (and specifically Harden).

Grades depend on the scale. If you are hard-nosed and give an A only when a player is top 20% for their role you may give out fewer than other graders especially if you give a lot of weight to team success for everyone and not just those who produced the positive edge. A D+ sounds harsh but by this scale it would just mean that at least 60% of players in a similar role are better. Starters and bench players probably should be on different scales. If you put them on the same scale you'd need to move a lot of guys up and down.

I'd hate to see what you guys would grade a team that's not 4th in the conference and a couple of games outside 2nd! :)

@okc baby
good*

About the slippage of Defense and the loss of Ron Adams. Should the coaches staff take the heat for this or the players. I think it can be more of a combination of blame. We ve seen them play could Defense in games this year so we know they know how to play defense and are capable of it. Like the nike slogan they are just not doing it. And the coaches are to blame for not making them accountable.

Great Interview Royce. Agreed with everything you said.

I think Ron Adams leaving contributes to some of the slippage on defense, especially w/ being in position to close out on perimeter players. I'm sure the players still buy in on defense (to a degree), but it's the difference between coaches speaking more generally (i.e. Play hard) vs the consistent attention Adams payed to defensive switching (a point the players made in an article posted earlier this season, e.g. that presence is missed.)

Make that...

Very unlikely to be meaningfully better than that "for a season average."

But playing better defense for a month, month and a half or two would be meaningful.

The offense is the opposite. Very unlikely they fall outside the top 10. A total surprise this season just like the huge defensive improvement was last season. I guess they were more right than wrong that the offense would take care of itself. Fooled me with both those big moves.

How will team defensive efficiency change over the rest of the season? A 1 point improvement, if nobody else changes, would only move them from 17th to 16th. A 1 point decline would move them to 24th. A 2 point improvement will only get them 14th place. They are now very likely to enter the playoffs with an average defense. Very unlikely to be meaningfully better than that.

Thanks.

Between the guys on the podcast and your posts most of the points got made fairly and clearly and weren't frequently that different. The grades matter less to me than the comments since what is a C or a B or D can vary by the grader.

Great points Crow.

I do think a lot of the blame for the defensive slippage is on the players. Last season they bought in that they had to play good defense to win for the first time and it was true.

This season they don't think they have to and don't do it until they see that they have to and the better offense is their reason or excuse. The coaching staff and the players and management will really all get marked down if they do not get back to better defense in the playoffs.

I might be a little more favorable on Thabo but not a lot.

Probably a little tougher on Maynor because of offensive weakness with him on the court but a lot of that is how the management and coach have put him on the court with.

I don't what I'd give to Harden but it would be lower than I hoped. I know they are trying to develop Harden and encourage him but honestly they aren't getting him the shots he needs. His shots per minute are actually down almost 20% this season! Brooks should intervene and make it happen. You do not want this to continue as is until he forces it. It should be if Harden is open from 3 or cutting clean, you'd better pass it or have a better shot. Not just make your shot, have a better shot.

Coaching: I think it could be a lot better, but it is still doing well so far.

Very good team record and that is the starting point for everyone.

A few comments:

I don't know what Presti, Brooks, the assistant coaches, Nick, Thabo or Krstic say about the defense in practice and film sessions but it is either not the right things, the right volume or frequency or it is just not working. Turn the defense up in the 4th and in the playoffs is a gimmick for the proved great not teams on the rise. They don't "have to" say anything in public but it might not be a bad idea, if nothing else works, by March at the latest.

Nick Collison, generally good but career low defensive rebounding (40% off his peak) and career high turnovers.

Serge Ibaka, he has moved up but he he still has a ways to go to be a major positive or even a net positive overall for the team. If he close to his ceiling? It is an easy question to scoff but I ask it anyways. He will probably get to his ceiling before most people see it as his ceiling, I think.

Jeff Green – I don't talk about him much anymore, but honestly I'd give him a D+ at best, except for the team record,so maybe you move him up some.

Russell Westbrook – B+

RE: the defense, although it started going downhill last season, the perimeter defense was never as bad as it has been this year.

My grades :)

Royal Ivey - C

Morris Peterson - C

Daequan Cook - D

Byron Mullens - D

Cole Aldrich - D - Way below expectations.

DJ White - C+ - Played good defense when pressed into duty.

Eric Maynor - C - Hasn't improved much of his game, least efficient scorer in the 9 man rotation. Steady.

Thabo Sefolosha - C - Poor defense from the defensive specialist. Career high scoring efficiency.

James Harden - C+ - Damaged more from short leash than anything. Has improved scoring efficiency, eFG%, finishing at the rim, turnovers.

Nick Collison - A - Does what he does. Lynchpin of the second unit.

Serge Ibaka - A - Huge improvements across the board.

Nenad Krstic - C- - Nothing surprising.

Jeff Green - D+ - Has regressed for the second season in the row. Poor effort defensively and on the boards.

Russell Westbrook - A- - Huge improvements on offense, defensive leadership lacking.

Kevin Durant - A- - Maintained offensively, defensive leadership lacking.

Coaching - C- - Starters still the same.

Maybe I wasn't paying attention to the grades closely enough.

Jeff Green a C and James Harden a C-? Huh?