TGR 43: Thunder play execution with Sebastian Pruiti

Alright. Didn't get that particular Simpson's reference but I can understand and take the light jab. It is matter of perspective. Serious stat checks can make sense and be silly, boring or overkill.

Yeah that Russell's assists don’t drop off more when his shooting percentage is down surprised me too at game level but he tends to get his assist work done early and then there can be long pauses. The perceptions aren't necessarily wrong, maybe more like half right.

Crow :
Brad,
You asked if Westbrook stops passing when his shot is off and yet he is shooting a lot.
I don’t know if it is as “fun as doing your taxes” (you kid, I kid, right?), but here is an answer:
When Westbrook takes 16+ shots and shoots less than 40% FG%, he still gets 8+ assists on average. Though it varies widely by game, there were only a few times when he didn’t get at least 5. A couple less assists can still affect the outcome in tight games but if Westbrook shooting a lot is a problem, the problem is probably deeper and larger than just the number of assists, it probably shows up in team FG%.
It would help to look at quarters because he probably is pretty on and off about passing by quarter or within stretches of quarters but I’ll only dig a little at that level.
Westbrook only averages 1 assist in the 4th quarter for the season. That was / probably still is a problem some of the time.
But in the last 10 games he was picked up another assist on average at game level and the secondary passers (Maynor, Harden and Durant) and the team as a whole have picked up their passing a lot to push the team from bottom 10 for the season into 8th best for the last 10 games. They’ve had at least one other stretch like this so the assists can come and go. When those 3 secondary passers get more assists than Westbrook, the team is probably doing well.
Not sure if there has been lasting change in team assists in the 4th quarter but in the last 3 games they have averaged 5 team assists in the 4th which seems alright.
Is this “advanced stats” babble worthwhile? You decide.

Thanks Crow, appreciate you looking into that for me. (BTW, the "fun as doing your taxes" comment was more an attempt for me to get an obscure simpsons quote in the show more than my actual feelings about advanced stat). I'm shocked that his assists don't drop off more when his shooting percentage is down, but proves what i know. Case and point for why stats can prove important, they show us when our perceptions aren't a reality.

The correlation of Westbrook's assists to team assists is pretty strong but not quite as strong as with turnover or foul shots (.55 correlation). I guess other guys step up the assists a bit more when Russell's assists are down than step up the free throws (or the turnovers).

Finally posting? err, ok.

Philly almost beat us, it took a buzzer beater by KD and Thunder Magic to pull that one out. I agree though, this lineup is a potential nightmare for practically any team because they can beat teams in any manner - small or big. Slow or fast. Just like the "real world", being dynamic certainly gives you an edge. If Ibaka (and he is so far) can have a present like Hakeem - game's over, go ahead and get the trophies ready!!

What up cdub00. Good to see you finally posting.

@Innocent Bystander @cdub00
Philly is a decent team. Losing at the Bucks is hard to ignore. But they also recently beat the celtics. I'll call them decent with alot of upside for arguments sake. With that said, they are the best of the 5 I referred to earlier. I think we are going to learn an awful lot about this starting lineup together in the playoffs. This is a hard lineup for anybody to match up with, regardless of how Westbrook ebbs and flows with his FG%.

Looks like game by game correlation of Westbrook's shooting and team shooting and efficiency is moderately strong (around .4 correlations). Correlation of Westbrook turnovers and total team turnovers and individual and team free throws is about 50% stronger and I'd call pretty strong (around .6 correlations).

innocent bystander :actually, I would say 4 terrible teams — Philly is actually pretty good

I would agree that Philly is pretty good for an playoff threshold team. That Thunderstudy Professor don't know jack!! Haha!!! What it do Professor????? Ole BITNIG!!! haha. THUNDER UP!!!

andrew :
Lol knicks..

hehe

yep, the solution to a team with an offense oriented coach and a offensive PF stud, was to bring in another offensive weapon (who needs defense?)

researched a wee bit on Toronto. Evidently, they're one of the world's financial capitals. But I can't think of any good sports team names based on finance (Toronto Bankers?)

Did catch some nice pics, though. Here's a good one:

Toronto skyline at night

looks like a cool city to visit

actually, I would say 4 terrible teams -- Philly is actually pretty good

The data by quarter data can be obtained from the game flows at http://popcornmachine.net/?team=OKC
if anybody wants to do a different cut of the data or look at all of it.

ThunderStudy Professor :@crow

they have won the last 6 against 5 horrible teams. Gotta consider the competition.

hey, horrible teams have their uses!
;)

@ThunderStudy Professor

Yeah, a full season check would be better, with the time.

Lol knicks..

@crow

they have won the last 6 against 5 horrible teams. Gotta consider the competition.

The Thunder are 9-1 in their last 10 games. So, looking at it differently, 2 of their 3 recent losses came when Russell started cold. Lots of ways to look at things.

@innocent bystander

Sorry. "They", here, meant the Thunder. I usually specify better but I guess I got going a bit too fast in several ways.

Crow :@innocent
bystander
When Russell shoots less than 40% in the first half recently, they still won 6 of 8.

does "they" mean us (Thunder) or the opposing team?

@innocent bystander

When Russell shoots less than 40% in the first half recently, they still won 6 of 8.

I got it!

the Toronto Blue Jays

oh, wait... that's taken
:(

@justin

http://www.nba.com/statistics/plusminus/plusminus_sort.jsp

Ozarkhick :
Don’t make cold references. That offends people from Toronto.
That pretty much leaves me with “Toronto Degrassi’s”.
My wife loves that show, kinda creepy for a 34 year old.

no cold references? dang, there goes my Toronto Tundra idea

Sorry, I messed up big-time comparing columns.

When shooting “hot” (for him) in the first, he doesn't shoot 66% more in the second half. He actually shot a little less in the recent sample.

When hot he takes about 9 shots in the first half, 8.5 in the second. When cold he takes about 8.5 shots in the first half, 7 in the second.

The assist data is correct.

Don't make cold references. That offends people from Toronto.

That pretty much leaves me with "Toronto Degrassi's".

My wife loves that show, kinda creepy for a 34 year old.

With all the marquee players jumping over to the East, they still might have two teams with losing records make the playoffs. West has eleven current teams with winning records, the east... seven.

clarkem :@innocent
bystander
Our team would suffer so much if that were to happen.

???

hey, I got it...

the Toronto Ehs

pronounce 'Ehs' to rhyme with haze

(sorta like the Oakland A's)
;)

Crow, what's that site on nba.com that you got player pair data from?

There was one game in the Russ "cold" sample that didn't belong. The main affect is that when his shot is cold it is cold, colder than I stated before and the bounce back on FG% in the second half is even bigger. But the full season might look different.

@osano-whoa

What you asked could be done from play by play. The team could check it. They should check just about everything they have time for. It is a $100 million enterprise. Get the facts and use them.

@innocent bystander
Our team would suffer so much if that were to happen.

@Ozarkhick
heh, yeah, because Jurassic Park had just come out and was all the rage. But "Toronto Turtles" doesn't have much zing to it, you must admit.

Probably they should have chosen a name that is more specific to some trait or assocation that is more specific to Toronto. I'd make a suggestion, but I don't know much about Toronto. Any Canadians on this board? What is Toronto known for?

@clarkem
Nice one, Clarkem!

I think Russell would improve as a point guard if a "no shoot" policy were enforced on him from time to time. Imagine a scenario like this:

Russ is told not to take a single shot or drive to the rim for the first quarter. Or even the whole first half. No buckets for himself, whatsoever. Only look for and set up others. Punishable by immediate benching if he breaks it.

And of course, it would have to be done somewhat randomly so that opposing teams didn't know that it was happening. I think it would force Westbrook to really improve his passing and "floor reading" ability. Unfortunately, I don't think Brooks (or anyone else) has the guts to try this.

If I see any raptors fans tonight (slim chance) I have to ask them this :

"How do you like having a nickname that sounds like it was selected by a focus group of 4 year old boys, about 15 years ago?"

They're probably only the raps because "teenage mutant ninja turtles" and "power rangers" would have violated trademark law.

I'd really love to see stats on Westbrook's production, both scoring and assists, based on FG% of the first 3 or so shots off of passes he makes. It seems like he tends to play very well when the first few passes he makes result in made baskets, and that he plays less well when he passes to people early and they miss their shots. That might be just my perception though, I can't be sure.

I think there's a pattern to Westbrook's best games. He starts out by setting up others, passing a lot, looking for cutters and open wing men. Shoots very little himself. Then, in the second half, he looks for his own shots more and begins to drive to the rim a lot. By the fourth quarter, he's taking a lot of jumpers for himself, but still making passes too.

When Russ starts by jacking up shots in the first quarter, that's usually a sign that we're going to get the bad Russ. He's so much better, for himself and the team, if he starts games looking for others and setting up plays for others. He can always reserve "hero mode" for late game situations.

Definitely could be improvements on this team and Russ is probably the one that could use the most. But I like going into a game thinking we got this win and should be a easy win.

TempBoy Brandon :
Russ’s assists per quarter are shocking, but he does play significantly less minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarters I would think. That’s typically when he’s on the bench. Yet, his 2nd quarter is higher than his 3rd. I think hero mode is definitely a part of the equation in the 4th. Well that and we run iso plays so often in the 4th.

They are PER36 so the minutes played is accounted for.

Crow :
“Is there anything to my question about whether or not Westbrook’s assist numbers drop when he starts a game shooting poorly.”
Ok, I’ll try to answer that specific question.
Since the trade there have been 14 games. When Russell shoot 40% FG% or less in the first half, his assists in that half are down by about 1/3rd compared to when he shots above 40%. He is still getting 4.25 assists in those bad shooting first halves though.
In this small sample of games when Westbrook’s shoot is “On” in the first half it cools off in the second half. 47% raw FG% in the first half, 43% FG% in the second half. Assists in the second half are just 56% of the first half.
when Westbrook’s shoot is “Off” in the first half it warms up some in the second half. 38% raw FG% in the first half, 41% FG% in the second half. Assists in the second half are 68% of the first half, a little less drop off than when Russ is hot in the first half.

Westbrook is a well deserved all star but these statistics show that he's not a good "point" guard yet. He's focused on getting his points, and the fact that his shots are falling or not affects his game too much

It does appear (at least in this data) that Russell adjusts from the first half to the second half.

When shooting "hot" (for him) in the first, he shoots more- 66% more in the second half, shoots less well (4 percentage points) and gets 44% less assists.

When "cold" shooting in the first, he shoots 21% less and 3 percentage points better in the second but still gets 32% less assists. That part doesn't seem to change.

Kobe's kinda banged up right now, dealing with a sprained ankle. Bynum is out tonight (and another game) for a flagrant.

I think Portland is going to beat the Lakers tonight.

Looking at the full season might be worthwhile but I am not sure I want to get it the additional time.

Russ's assists per quarter are shocking, but he does play significantly less minutes in the 2nd and 4th quarters I would think. That's typically when he's on the bench. Yet, his 2nd quarter is higher than his 3rd. I think hero mode is definitely a part of the equation in the 4th. Well that and we run iso plays so often in the 4th.

"Is there anything to my question about whether or not Westbrook’s assist numbers drop when he starts a game shooting poorly."

Ok, I'll try to answer that specific question.

Since the trade there have been 14 games. When Russell shoot 40% FG% or less in the first half, his assists in that half are down by about 1/3rd compared to when he shots above 40%. He is still getting 4.25 assists in those bad shooting first halves though.

In this small sample of games when Westbrook's shoot is "On" in the first half it cools off in the second half. 47% raw FG% in the first half, 43% FG% in the second half. Assists in the second half are just 56% of the first half.

when Westbrook's shoot is "Off" in the first half it warms up some in the second half. 38% raw FG% in the first half, 41% FG% in the second half. Assists in the second half are 68% of the first half, a little less drop off than when Russ is hot in the first half.

This team could use a little discipline on the court. Especially on the defensive side. Perks attention to detail defensively will do more good then harm. I like the toughness and seriousness he brings. As long as its only one guy and he doesn't get carried away with it.

@Brad

I don't know about that but Westbrook's assist splits by quarter are pretty startling. (Per 36 minutes):

1st quarter: 11.1
2nd quarter: 10.1
3rd quarter: 8.0
4th quarter: 4.9

Hey, Brad! Thanks for the reference point. It was my first podcast. Enjoyed it, love the attention to detail - serious, but perhaps not maniacal enough for my blood (I kid). No, but really, good stuff. I, too, as I mentioned above, will be monitoring how Perks on floor demeanor effects the teams chemistry. Their collective magic was constructed on a whole 'nother philosophy. I posited that Russ might have the most difficult time with it, but at this point Im more excited by his approach then I am concerned by it, but it absolutely merits monitoring. I hope teh coaching staff is there to quell any uprisings or serious protests, or that Perk is off the court explaining his reasons rather than just shocking the youngins' into submission.

Daniel Plainview :
I dont know them by voice yet. WHos the one who they just called Mr. Positive?

I'm the negative one, Joel is the one who is usually significantly more positive than I am.

Thanks to everyone for the comments on the podcast, we appreciate the feedback.

Question for you advanced stat guys out there. Is there anything to my question about whether or not Westbrook's assist numbers drop when he starts a game shooting poorly. I've looked around and am thinking the only way I can get a decisive idea on this is by looking at each games stats individually (which I can't see myself doing). If anyone knows the answer to this I'd appreciate it.

Daniel Plainview :
Our losses against the west were by single digits.
They are right, we are not getting the attention of the media. And although a homer, my allegience to objectivity can not be doubted.

Teh last 3 losses, haha. Actually just did my research, post-facto

Mr. Rogers