Zach Lowe of SI doesn’t like Harden’s leg kick either: “You know I love the way the Thunder’s Harden has been playing in general lately, but is it me, or has he become the league’s foremost practitioner of the semi-dirty leg kick at the end of a jump shot? It’s a blatant attempt at drawing a foul, one mastered by lots of “wily” stars, including Reggie Miller and Karl Malone. A few officials have actually called offensive fouls on Harden when he does this, and I’m all for policing this play more aggressively by calling more offensive fouls.”
Darnell Mayberry: “Kevin Durant already taken seven more 3-pointers this year than he did last season. And there’s still 10 games left to play. AND if he plays each of the remaining 10, he’ll still be four shy of last year, when he played all 82 games. The numbers have been shocking. He seems to have diversified his game much more in his fourth season. But his 3-point attempts are staggering.”
Great execution from the Thunder beating the zone with a lob.
Sam Smith of Bulls.com writing on the future of the NBA: “More immediately, it raises questions about the makeup of the 2012 Olympic team. The general assumption was the 2008 winners would mostly return. Though in talent, it’s already clear some of the young guys have passed them with Rose and Westbrook likely superior to Williams and Chris Paul. You’d easily take Durant over Anthony and Love over Chris Bosh. Kobe Bryant will be too old and beaten up, most likely, and Jason Kidd, Michael Redd, Carlos Boozer and Tayshaun Prince likely wouldn’t be candidates. Which leaves Howard, who played behind Bosh because he can’t shoot, LeBron and Wade? I wouldn’t be surprised to see LeBron and Wade take a pass given the season long endurance race they have with the Heat and having played for several USA teams.”
Steph Curry has kind of killed OKC.
You absolutely must check out this great illustration from Hector Lopez, who is the caricature artist that works in Loud City at Thunder games.
Brian Powell for NBA.com: “Actually, announcing is a labor intensive task that takes years of practice, months of studying during the season (for most) and a very, very strong bladder. Take for example the team of Kevin Harlan and Kevin McHale, who had the pleasure of calling the triple overtime game between the Suns and Lakers last Tuesday. Talking for that long is honestly harder than you think. Sure there were 10 lead changes (and Ron Artest blowing kisses to the crowd and flexing after every basket) to keep them entertained. But adding a full hour of game time can take a lot out of an announcing team.”
ESPN Stats and Info reiterates my point: “In the seven games with Kendrick Perkins in the lineup, the Thunder have gone 6-1 while allowing just 91.1 PPG, more than 10 points fewer than before he was playing.”
@Thunderkid89
i'm in 6th.
I think the Broingtons front was the best, followed by the zombiesonics. I would have bought a air congo, but waited too long to pull the trigger. On second thought, I think they were out of XL so long, I gave up.
DXL :@DSMok1
Dave Berri was for a number of years chief stats consultant for the Mavs, so at least one NBA front office has used Wins Produced.
I'm pretty sure you are switching Dave Berri and Wayne Winston (originator of Adjusted +/-) who consulted for the Mavs for a number of years.
Dave Berri says he has done some work for teams but it sounded like it was short projects and several or many years ago. And Cuban dismissed Wins Produced at a Sloan Conference a year or two ago.
Wins Produced gets criticized for overemphasizing defensive rebounding and for being too demanding on FG% and not interest enough in usage. I generally agree but it comes down to whether a model should value player actions for their immediate apparent value or whether actions should be seen for their conditional, contextual value.
The availability of other players to defensive rebound and the near uniformity in defensive rebounding across the league and thru time. The known probability that a missed shot has a certain significantly helpful chance of being rebounded by the offense. The much debated topic of high usage leadership roles making it potentially easier for others to take a modest amount of shots and shot well. I'd say a model should handle conditional value for all these and probably more or it should do none of it. Better to have both types of models out there. I wouldn't rely 100% on any one model. Rejecting all other models out there as flawed and seeing WP as totally sufficient is the biggest drawback to the Wins Produced advocacy.
@Royce
Baby blue lettering outlined in yellow with a blue checkerboard shadow? Really?? For Kendrick "I'm gonna rip your head off and..." Perkins???
The NWA, Zombie Sonics and Go Green shirts were OK, but the others...meh.
Maybe a Perk shirt that said "Perk hates you" and had a scowl hovering above the lettering (kind of like the face outline from the Harden shirt)... Thought I'd give an idea if I'm going to criticize...
Royce Young :@MartzMimicNot a fan of the Perk shirt?
I also found the Perk shirt disappointing. It's just too plain in design and content. Just my opinion. I really appreciate the site and shirts though (just wanted to finish positive).
Chocolate Ginobili :
james1 :One other observation on KD. The reason the big guys like Artest and Wallace are having so much success against KD is because he’s just standing out on the perimeter the majority of the time. His success rate on the post up outside the 3 point line can’t be more than 25%. His best game of the year IMO was against the HEat and a phyisical defender in Lebron James and what did he do to get good looks in that game? He ran around picks the whole game. The way to beat the big physical defenders IMO is run more. Go Richard Hamilton on them and run around picks and shoot open jumpers all day long. He’s not going to back down Ron Artest or Gerald Wallace or Lebron James with any kind of positive success rate. GO RICHARD HAMILTON on those kinds of defenders KD. We’ve got the plays in the book. Use em!!
I think you’re on to something. Hopefully, Brooks is saving KD now so he has the energy to run in the playoffs. There’s no need to run KD all over the court against teams like Golden State.
Golden State doesn't play defense anyway. He'll be wide open if he makes it up the court.
james1 :
One other observation on KD. The reason the big guys like Artest and Wallace are having so much success against KD is because he’s just standing out on the perimeter the majority of the time. His success rate on the post up outside the 3 point line can’t be more than 25%. His best game of the year IMO was against the HEat and a phyisical defender in Lebron James and what did he do to get good looks in that game? He ran around picks the whole game. The way to beat the big physical defenders IMO is run more. Go Richard Hamilton on them and run around picks and shoot open jumpers all day long. He’s not going to back down Ron Artest or Gerald Wallace or Lebron James with any kind of positive success rate. GO RICHARD HAMILTON on those kinds of defenders KD. We’ve got the plays in the book. Use em!!
I think you're on to something. Hopefully, Brooks is saving KD now so he has the energy to run in the playoffs. There's no need to run KD all over the court against teams like Golden State.
gr8ball83 :@andrewdepends if the refs let Artest hug KD all game, even a great screener can’t remove a bear hug
That's why he need to do the Richard Hamilton figure 8 around and around. That makes the bear hug harder to do.
@andrew
depends if the refs let Artest hug KD all game, even a great screener can't remove a bear hug
andrew :We now have a screener in the starting lineup who can get Artest off of Durant. That will make a huge difference imo.
If we use him. If he posts up by himself at the 3 point line (while getting felt up) he's not near as effective.
Bryan :The Thunder/Lakers match up is so much different now. And I’m not so sure it’s for the better. Sure, we will defend better and rebound better. But we lost a little ground on the other end. Bynum can now park in the paint, making it easier to neutralize the Thunder’s athleticism and iso-focused offense. Same thing for Gasol and Odom.
The Thunder is more traditional now. For the Lakers, that kind of makes them easier to defend.
That makes sense in theory but Green shot awful against the Lakers for the most part and Bynum and Gasol had their way with us when Kobe wasn't chucking up shots so giving up that theoretical spread is worth keeping them away from the basket somewhat. Plus by the end of the series and in the game this year that Green played in they were clogging the lane first and running out on Green. Westbrook was hurting them way more than Green so they were already trying to clog the lane before we made the deal.
We now have a screener in the starting lineup who can get Artest off of Durant. That will make a huge difference imo.
The Thunder/Lakers match up is so much different now. And I'm not so sure it's for the better. Sure, we will defend better and rebound better. But we lost a little ground on the other end. Bynum can now park in the paint, making it easier to neutralize the Thunder's athleticism and iso-focused offense. Same thing for Gasol and Odom.
The Thunder is more traditional now. For the Lakers, that kind of makes them easier to defend.
@DSMok1
To clarify: threshold for positive impact of a shooting percentage should be somewhat below average. And by my analysis, the threshold moves depending on usage. If you only take 10% of shots, you'd better make a lot to be valuable on offense. If you can take 30% of shots, you are freeing teammates to take better shots, and the threshold you must exceed to be valuable drops somewhat. Below league average, at least.
I have Rose as one of the top 3 offensive players in the league and in the top 5 overall (Westbrook close behind him). Wins Produced has Rose way down the list. (And Kevin Love far and away the best player)
@justin
I acknowledge the usage/production issue. Wins Produced measures Landry Fields as the best Knick player this year, by far. He's been a great rebounder and very efficient in limited minutes (and I think was one of the main reasons the Knicks got off to a hot start) but his efficiency would decline with more usage.
And you can't have a team with 12 Landry Fields. Somebody has to put up shots.
One other observation on KD. The reason the big guys like Artest and Wallace are having so much success against KD is because he's just standing out on the perimeter the majority of the time. His success rate on the post up outside the 3 point line can't be more than 25%. His best game of the year IMO was against the HEat and a phyisical defender in Lebron James and what did he do to get good looks in that game? He ran around picks the whole game. The way to beat the big physical defenders IMO is run more. Go Richard Hamilton on them and run around picks and shoot open jumpers all day long. He's not going to back down Ron Artest or Gerald Wallace or Lebron James with any kind of positive success rate. GO RICHARD HAMILTON on those kinds of defenders KD. We've got the plays in the book. Use em!!
justin :@DXL
My understanding is that Wins Produced places too much value on efficiency and hardly any on usage / production. Maybe DSMok could explain this better, but I’m sure I’ve seen some discussions on ABPRmetrics in the past that have been pretty harsh on WP.
One problem: Every rebound is a positive (threshold for positive impact is 0) but for shooting efficiency, the threshold is league average. So Rose, for instance, shoots league average or so, but gets no credit for a very high usage.
Also, the positive impact from every rebound is given completely to the player that grabs it, undervaluing (for example) Nick Collison, who helps others get rebounds by blocking out so well. Much of the rebound's value should be attributed to teammates/system, rather than an actual credit to the player who got it. Rebounds are like the RBIs of basketball. See http://sabermetricresearch.blogspot.com/2011/01/box-score-statistics-are-rbis-of.html
I am tied for 27th but got no teams left
I am ties for 27th but got no teams left
@justin
APBRmetrics, I mean.
One other comment on the Portland game. This past game was the first time I can remember playing Portland when there weren't stretches of Portland throwing the ball inside or and getting numerous uncontested layups or having Aldridge and Camby miss two or three shots getting every rebound and finally laying it in. It is such a different feel to the game if the other team isn't getting easy interior buckets. It's so deflating to defend well for 20 seconds and then give up easy buckets underneath.
That has been THE difference in the games when we play the Lakers. It'll be interesting to see if our bigs are good enough to keep that from happening against the Lakers. I think if they can keep their bigs from dominating we are pretty close to even teams. That is easier said than done but Portland was a good little test since they are so long and if not for Gerald Wallace and KD's funk we would have killed them.
@Royce, @Justin @anyone else
What place are you in the DT bracket contest?
@DXL
My understanding is that Wins Produced places too much value on efficiency and hardly any on usage / production. Maybe DSMok could explain this better, but I'm sure I've seen some discussions on ABPRmetrics in the past that have been pretty harsh on WP.
From Berri:
"What we find is that each point, rebound and steal has relatively the same positive impact on wins. Each field goal attempt and turnover has an equal negative effect. The other statistics — like free throw attempts, blocked shots, assists and personal fouls — do matter, but to a lesser degree."
So that's why Thabo is good according to this metric, he rebounds and steals well, while hardly ever shooting or turning the ball over.
@MartzMimic
Not a fan of the Perk shirt?
@gr8ball83
lol i love this board!!
@DJ R7
I don't know what you're talking about. Moving on.
@justin
From what I understand Wins Produced certainly takes into account things like opponent field goal percentage, turnovers, etc., for the minutes that a player is on the court. So that would indicate something about Thabo's defense.
I think Wins Produced has to be given some credit for explaining why "superstars" like Carmelo and Iverson are actually subpar players while defenders/rebounders like Ben Wallace and Marcus Camby (in their primes) were big contributors to team winning.
gr8ball83 :@DJ
R7
I’m not really sure why you just used the “I” word in a post this close to the end of the season, but don’t let it happen again…
This.
@gr8ball83
lol im soo sorry sir!!! but come on is it not a concern?
@DJ R7
I'm not really sure why you just used the "I" word in a post this close to the end of the season, but don't let it happen again...
@DXL
the Mavs are a fantastic team the last decade, but um despite '06, they've always been weak in the PO's.
guys i don't know why, but im starting to worry that Westbrook and KD may get injured in the final games. Look at Dallas, Boston, and Spurs. I know both are young, but come on tired legs hurt everyone. If the 4th seed is in the lock, then i think we should rest them the final two games. I know we gotta get Perkins situated in the 1st unit, but what if Durant and Westbrook go down. We can't have that.
@DSMok1
Dave Berri was for a number of years chief stats consultant for the Mavs, so at least one NBA front office has used Wins Produced.
@gr8ball83
I hate it! But mostly because Dave Berri is so damn evangelical when throwing his thoughts around.
@justin
How do you really feel about Wins Produced...?
@DXL
Yeah... Front offices don't use Wins Produced, DXL.
@DXL
Wins Produced is a stupid metric that overvalues rebounding. It also doesn't say anything about Thabo's defense, it's not an on/off metric and goes off the boxscore stats.
Presti is a believer in advanced statistics. It's no wonder Krstic and Green are out of here. They look awful under Berri's Wins Produced metric.
kfmsooner :
Durant is struggling to figure out his game since the trade. He is averaging 24.5 ppg and seems to be settling for a lot of jump shots. He doesn’t seem to be getting to the rim except for lobs/breakaways. His FTAs are down and 3PTAs are up. Not a good combo. He is getting more catch and shoot opportunities and his 3PT% is up to 42.7% since the trade.
This was discussed in a previous comments section but Durant's shot distribution and %AST has been quite different this season. Probably coincides with Westbrook's emergence. I don't think it's accurate to say Durant is 'struggling' since the trade, though. He's at 60%+ TS for the month of March, he's scoring less because he's taking fewer shots a game.
@Daniel Hawaii
The really interesting thing about the Dave Berri chart: Thabo's third on the team in Wins Produced after Durant and Westbrook. And has been for the last two years.
The advanced statistics support the fact that he's a starter and that he makes more of a contribution to the Thunder winning than is generally acknowledged.
We see Thabo toasted in a few games by superstars, in isolation situations, and we assume that his overall defense is faltering. Not according to Dave Berri.
Thabo's rebounding has been excellent and his shooting efficiency is improved.
ThunderUp35 :When we lost to GS a while back, David Lee abused Jeff Green. Ibaka should play him better than Green. I have a feeling this game will not be easy… but we should get a win by 5-7 points IMO.
yeah it was sad to see David Lee abuse both Kristic and Green. If Westbrook can contest Steph, Durant take advantage of the smaller player, and Thabo/James contain Ellis or try their best to keep him from going off we should be good win. Of course i have a feeling all 3 won't happend but if we can at least do two of those then the perimeter should be fine. Our Front Line(not to be cocky) is Superior compared to theirs now.
Durant is struggling to figure out his game since the trade. He is averaging 24.5 ppg and seems to be settling for a lot of jump shots. He doesn't seem to be getting to the rim except for lobs/breakaways. His FTAs are down and 3PTAs are up. Not a good combo. He is getting more catch and shoot opportunities and his 3PT% is up to 42.7% since the trade.
@MartzMimic
Yeah I'm not a fan of the Perk shirt... but to each their own! I wish Serge's peeps would have let the Air Congo shirt fly... get it??
When we lost to GS a while back, David Lee abused Jeff Green. Ibaka should play him better than Green. I have a feeling this game will not be easy... but we should get a win by 5-7 points IMO.
I understand that Hector might have to moderate his art to avoid any infringements, but I'd at least reach out to him. God knows he could have surely come up with a better Perk shirt.
@Bryan
yeah the nights when the starting unit really hums on offense are when everyone is swinging the ball around looking for a better shot. I hate the iso games, seems like every basket is a struggle.
@gr8ball83
For sure. My eyeballs are telling me the Thunder are having a harder time scoring. But it's just not the case when you look at efficiency. I just wish the starting unit would act a bit more like the second unit and run some sets and share the ball.
The second unit plays like it has something to prove. The starting unit plays like it's a job (most of the time).
I thought this bit from NBA.com was interesting:
"...Kendrick Perkins has been singing the praises of Thabo Sefolosha since joining the Thunder as Sefolosha is gaining a reputation as an athletic Bruce Bowen. Said Perkins: “He's a guy who brings value to the court without it really showing up in the stat sheet, He's a huge part of why we're a great defensive team.”… The Thunder hasn’t missed a beat losing Jeff Green, as James Harden has moved in averaging 16 points on 49 percent shooting the last 10 games. …"
http://www.nba.com/bulls/news/smith_110328.html?ls=iref:nbahpt1