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As the Thunder cut their collective playoff teeth, there are still plenty of new situations for the team to confront mentally and physically. Having a chance to really stomp on the throat of a wounded postseason opponent is one of them, and it comes tonight in Denver.
There aren’t many other playoff challenges that can present themselves for a first time for the Thunder. A close-out game and a Game 7 are two, but what else is there? Game 1 marked the first time Oklahoma City opened at home as a playoff favorite, and the Thunder responded to that test with a pair of wins.
Another challenge OKC encounters, but not for the first time, is to win a playoff game on the road. That’s on a list of problems that the Thunder have yet to solve despite previous attempts, including winning as a playoff underdog. Certainly OKC has only had a few chances to address these issues. But there would be no better time for the Thunder to get its first playoff win than tonight, and maybe it will have the chance to be a playoff series underdog again soon enough.
Thankfully for Thunder fans, Oklahoma City has made its name on answering the bell and exceeding expectations for two years running now. There’s plenty of reason to think the Thunder will again pass a mental test by being strong enough to win at least one of two games against the Nuggets on their home court. And I do emphasize mental, because I think the last four games have proved that Oklahoma City is the better team right now, and an A+ game from the Thunder beats an A+ game from Denver.
It’s hard to take lessons from the regular season and apply them to the playoffs, which is obviously a different animal. Then again, the first two games in OKC during this series have played out the way the two late regular season games the Thunder and Nuggets play. Still, I think a different two-game stretch late in the season combine to give the Thunder the kind of confidence it needs to win tonight and/or Monday, and can be a source of confidence for fans who are spending the last few hours before the game obsessing about it, looking for reasons why Oklahoma City should win. (Whoever THAT may be…)
The Thunder entered April 10 on a hot streak, but was running into the Lakers at the Staples Center. Los Angeles was determined to bounce-back from a losing streak and talked about how important a win would be on their home court against a contending team. But Oklahoma City went out and extended LA’s streak and closed out the Lakers in the fourth quarter. The next night, the potential letdown game came in Sacramento. Older, flakier versions of the Thunder would have responded to the trip in one of two ways: losing to the Lakers and taking out frustrations in a win against the Kings the next night, or somehow winning the bigger first game but losing focus against Sacramento and losing there. The new, tougher and determined Thunder won both games.
Tonight’s game in the Pepsi Center combines those elements. Denver should at least be trying to batten down the hatches (though the Nuggets may be failing, if J.R. Smith’s petulant post-practice interview Thursday is a sign of how they’re really feeling) and should enter Game 3 in “must win” mode. And the Thunder would be in danger if any sense of complacency has set in with a two-game series lead.
It may be asking a lot for the Thunder to beat what is a better team than showed up in downtown Oklahoma City through the first quarter of Wednesday night’s game once or even twice on its home floor in a playoff setting. Maybe my optimistic feeling isn’t quite as justified as it feels, even with a two-game lead, because four straight wins don’t necessarily have to be predictors of the future. The Nuggets could have a renaissance, play with energy and return to Oklahoma City having made this a tight series.
But I think the Thunder will pass this test as they have so many others. The toughness shown throughout the strong spring run, exemplified by the California road trip and in the four recent games against Denver, isn’t a fluke. Headed into tipoff, the Thunder is playing the best basketball in the West right now and shows no signs of stopping.
If this series comes back to Oklahoma City on Wednesday, it sure doesn’t feel like it will be 2-2. The Thunder has answered almost every recent bell, and there’s no reason to suspect they won’t answer this one.
Kivman, the other main reason why the models had a higher chance for the Nuggets to win the series than in your coin flip analogy is that they have the home court edge in 3 of the 5 remaining games, tilting it a bit away from 50/50 chances in each game as you assumed.
(Those pace references in my last post were based on season pace for opponents, not the pace of the actual games against the Thunder.)
@Kivman
What Justin said- the initial analysis was predicated on the Nuggets being a better team in the abstract.
@cdub00
The 15% estimate would be near the high point of the range of their chances considering match-up data. It might be lower or much lower but I was being cautious and no one care say with great certainty.
@justin
The sample size against the exact same team in a season is very small in all circumstances. The middle ground way to increase the sample size may be to try look at teams similar to the Nuggets, i.e. playoff level teams, fast teams, 3 point shooting teams, average defense etc. to see if their any categories of opponents where there are somewhat larger sample trends of greater than normal strength or weakness.
The Thunder won 83% against faster than average opponents. That may be their greatest strength statistically vs opponents. It could be part of the story against the Nuggets but that is just a guess as it is hard to way how important pace preference and outcome is. The Thunder won only 45% against average pace teams. The Spurs and Mavs are near average pace this season. High pace is often associated with average or weak defenses. The Thunder have won pretty well against teams with average defenses. Not a super strength but not a weakness either.
cdub00 :
I am still trying to figure out how this Denver team somehow doesn’t fit into the 6% category when we have beat them 4 times in a row *once in Denver, and have by far the best two players in the series on our team. Not to mention, our defense has become downright stifling and our offense is actually better than theirs, if that is possible. I am biased, of course, but to me Denver has shown nothing but mental weakness since this series started, which was the only advantage they had coming into this series, IMO, save Nene over Perk. Denver Stiffs are exactly that, a bunch of stiffs.
I think their methodology is explained well in the article. I don't know what we can do to help you understand it better. The first paragraph does a decent job of addressing your first question; i.e. many series that are part of the 6% sample feature matchups that are far more unbalanced, therefore not really pertinent to our series with Denver (closely matched teams).
There are obviously factors that have not been incorporated into the analysis that probably bring down their stated odds a bit, but probably nowhere close to 6%.
I am still trying to figure out how this Denver team somehow doesn't fit into the 6% category when we have beat them 4 times in a row *once in Denver, and have by far the best two players in the series on our team. Not to mention, our defense has become downright stifling and our offense is actually better than theirs, if that is possible. I am biased, of course, but to me Denver has shown nothing but mental weakness since this series started, which was the only advantage they had coming into this series, IMO, save Nene over Perk. Denver Stiffs are exactly that, a bunch of stiffs.
I think you could weigh the head to head games at this point and factor it into their take, and get to the ~15% overall chance which seems more realistic to me.
@Kivman
I think the initial analysis is predicated on the Nuggets being a better team (in a vacuum), especially if you look at post deadline / recent play. Most statistical analyses done before the series started had the Nuggets winning. We happen to match up well against them, IMO, which is something that these predictive tools can't really evaluate since the sample size of games between DEN/OKC is still small relative to the the whole season (or last four seasons, in the RAPM case).
@b_rhoades
Let's hope we get Dallas in that situation really soon. ;) I'll go down there...
why is everyone so surprised to see the arena half-filled with bulls fans? Chicago is only a 3 hour drive away, its a chance for them to see their team sweep a series, and Indiana fans probably didn't want to take a chance to see their team swept (even though they won). if a team was 3 hours away from OKC and we were up 3-0, don't you think that tons of Thunder fans would DEFINITELY find a way to get tickets and drive 3 hours? I know I would...
I mean, any "data analysis" that brings the probability up to 25% seems highly suspect to me.
@Crow
Simple statistics would say that the probability is less than 25%, wouldn't it? I mean, assuming they are equal strength (i.e., 50% chance of winning any game), then the probability of winning 4 out of 5 is about 18.75% (6 out of 32 possibilities using 5 coin flips). I realize Denver has 3 at home compared to OKC 2, but OKC has been playing better. I agree with the 10%-15% probabilities (probably closer to 10%).
@justin
Ur a real good fan. *eye roll*
@OUThunderfan
Haha, Indiana did all they could to give that game away!
I didn't realize they were playing game 4 in Chicago. ;)
@Daniel
LOL are u sure now?
I agree with the data analysis that takes a 6% chance for Denver to win down 0-2 based on the performance of all teams in such a predicament up to 20-25% based on the specific relative overall strengths of each team, but then I agree with Ozarkhick that if you look at recent performance in the specific match-up that would probably again lower the odds some, probably under 15%, maybe lower.
I've also pushed for the return of RAPM / statistical model blends. There is such a blend presented in several recent articles here: http://thecity2.com/2/ The ideal blend might be 2/3rds or more from a statistical model and 1/3rd or less from RAPM but seeing a 50/50 blend is a step forward, especially since EZPM is based on play by play data and attempts to capture shot defense, something few other box-score metrics have done in any fashion and even fewer at play by play level and counterpart level.
Daniel :Glad to see Indiana is going to be winning a game
+1
mattk :I’m 10 rows up behind Nuggets bench. I’ll be the screaming idiot with white KD jersey on! Thunder UP!!
Are you wearing protective headgear? :)
@Ozarkhick@justin
The current version of 4 year RAPM weights all seasons equally. He has been asked about weighting more recent seasons more heavily and has indicated he will consider do it in the future.
A past author of RAPM now employed by an NBA team did both an equal weighted version and one that weighted more recent season more heavily. Traditional APM authors have also done it both ways at different times.
RAPM can still get better in lots of ways. I am pushing for some changes. If I had a better computer and more time for it, I might be able to do it myself but at the moment I monitor the efforts of others and push for improvements.
I think my push for improvements helped to some degree spur the move from traditional APM to RAPM to better deal with extreme values and spurred the publication of Adjusted +/- at the 4 Factor level.
Also, how is Rose getting a pass for his terrible shooting? He was 0-9 from 3 in an earlier game in the series, now he's 1-9 from 3 (5-19 overall). That's terrible.
Glad to see Indiana is going to be winning a game
Holy crap, there really are more Bulls than Pacers fans at this game by the sound of things. Shameful.
And that Korver 3 shouldn't have counted.
@innocent bystander
Darn you Mike Gundy. I can no longer here this phrase without hearing your voice.
@Daniel
I think everyone would agree the series would be over if we won tonight.
Winning tonight's game would eliminate all hope for the Nuggets, no team down 3-0 has ever come back to win a series in the NBA (happened once each in the MLB and NHL I think). My dream scenario would be to win tonight's game, lose a nail biter in Game 4, and then come back all pissed off and blow the Nuggets out in Game 5 at home (which I will be attending).
How great would it be if our fans could do something like this at a playoff elimination game? Listen closely to the crowd.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hb9CWnqaASQ#t=1m05s
i don't have time to argue it now -- I'll discuss the mathematics of it later
justin :@innocent
bystander
That’s just not true…
yes it is
@Ozarkhick
It's not a four year 'average', most likely - I'd get four year APM would put a premium on recent play. APM's built in error is too large with smaller samples, even one or two year samples. Four years stabilizes it a bit, but of course there's still noise in there which is probably magnified by having so many players (on both teams) with four years of experience and less.
25% seems realistic to me if you're not taking into account specific matchups, coaching, injuries, etc. Which, obviously, that analysis can't do.
Here's another perspective on Denver's chances : win 4 out of 5 against a team you have dropped 4 in a row against, and are 0-4 all time and 0-1 at home with anything resembling current rotations.
Maybe I was being too generous.
The slimy-ness of saying "you need a 4 year average to get significance out of RAPM" is astounding. Right, there just isn't enough plus minus available on Durant over the past 2 years, and I'll ignore the ridiculous disparity between his first 2 years and his second 2 years.
That's what you call "being a propagandist".
@innocent bystander
That's just not true...
@justin
I agree with the premise that they have a better than 6% chance as well, but if it isn't a secret that "player x" had an APM that was "worse than worthless" in his first two seasons, and the second best in the league over the last two, why oh why would you use a 4 year average unless you were trying to prove your own preconceived notion?
That's called abusing rather than using stats. They use it to get Denver to a 25% chance of winning the series. I agree it's better than 6%, but nowhere near 25%.
I can't believe this Game, half the arena are bull fans, Rose hype or not, kinda gives Indiana a bad name.
and based on this season's Denver/OKC games, they have a lot less than 6% chance of winning the series
@Ozarkhick
I agree with their premise, that they have a much higher than 6% chance of winning the series still. Like the article says, the 6% includes series that really don't apply to this situation.
Denverstiffs update : Stat guys suggesting Denver still has a good chance to win the series using RAPM - using a FOUR YEAR running average. So using stats dating back to KD's atrocious rookie and soph seasons (from a +/- perspective) still gives them a glimmer of hope.
smh.
*@DJ 7
*Tonights game is more important than the next. I'm Sorry i'm typing in the dark.
JJJ :It was like that for Game 3
It was also like that for the recent Bulls-Bucks game at the end of the regular season. I think it says more about the Chicago fan base than about the Pacers/Bucks. They’ve totally taken over the Midwest region. Shows how big the Rose hype really is
Its easier for bandwagon fans to root for a big city team with a player like Rose then to root for your home team. Besides most aren't Bulls fans, just Rose fans.
Last year i ran into alot of Lakers fans and half of them berly knew who Magic Johnson is, and had no idea of who Jerry West is.
Tonight's game is huge. I have a good feeling about it. I think the Thunder will be determined to step on Denver's throat and get this series over with.
Let's hope we don't see the Nuggs back on OKC until next year....
Tonight is moew impoeanr rhen rhw next game. The entire team has to be going tonight. Huge mental test for the boys,
If we get the win tonight, then Denver won't even try IN GAME 4. They are already mentally weak and a lost at home will crush their confidence entirely. Winning tonights game will either get us running hard to eliminate them the next, and even if they win Game 4, they wont win in our house. we've become one of the hardest places to win, and i think Denver will still be mentally weak going into our place still facing elimination.
Tonights game is all abut momentum. Lets see if we can keep the wheels going
A lot of people have been waiting for an excuse to start cheering for the Bulls again. They now have that excuse.
That said, the Bulls really should have been dominant over the Pacers (who suck IMO). I wouldn't be surprised to see them ousted in the second round.
It was like that for Game 3
It was also like that for the recent Bulls-Bucks game at the end of the regular season. I think it says more about the Chicago fan base than about the Pacers/Bucks. They've totally taken over the Midwest region. Shows how big the Rose hype really is
I'm 10 rows up behind Nuggets bench. I'll be the screaming idiot with white KD jersey on! Thunder UP!!
@Perkins Game Face
I think we have a situation where an improbably high number of people looked at the 3-0 hole and decided they would rather have the street value of their ticket as opposed to hoping their team could pull it out and make it a series. But still, this is crazy. Their fanbase has almost entirely abandoned them. I don't recall ever seeing something like this before outside of bedlam football.
I don't know if I'm more impressed with that many bulls fans traveling to see their team or disappointed with pacers fans. I mean is it general disinterest in the team or does economics play into it?
Yeah, I was shocked when I saw all the red in the crowd.
@Perkins Game Face
I was just going to comment on that. This is a sad day for basketball in the state of Indiana. It's a defacto home game for Chicago.
This Indiana home playoff game is embarrassing. Sounds like a bulls home game half of the time. Remind me of this the next time I'm a little critical of any of our home game crowds.
Before the series started, I guessed that the Thunder would win games 1 and 2, drop game 3, and then win game 4.
But...I think there's a good chance that they win tonight (assuming that they get some early jumpers to fall). If they do that, I think it'll be a sweep.
And winning tonight hinges on coming out strong, in my opinion. Take the crowd of it quickly, and it should be game over.
I was going to watch the game with my wife...then we invited her cousins, and then her parents, and then a couple of friends...so I'm hoping the game goes well. Nothing kills a party like a depressing game.
Go Thunder!
I also wouldn't be shock or even really let down to see usdrop one in Denver, but I hope our players don't have my attitude. I don't see this going beyond 5 games.