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As the Spurs and Grizzlies get set for a big Game 6 in Memphis tonight, Thunder fans will be watching with a little different perspective. One of these two teams will be the next opponent.
That was obviously true before and we were all thinking about that when Oklahoma City went up 3-0, but now it’s an official question. Who should the Thunder be rooting for? It’s a pretty important question because if OKC was to win this series, it would be in the Western Conference Finals. That… just blows my mind to think about.
Here’s my snap take: I think the Thunder matches up better with the Spurs. I really do. Yes, OKC went 0-3 against them with only one game being close, but the Thunder’s speed, athleticism and size inside could really frustrate San Antonio. You know, much like the Grizzlies. And of course those three games came with the Old Thunder, not the New Thunder. Big, big difference. No doubt the Spurs are a great team. They didn’t accidentally win 61 games. They’re championship tested. But in terms of straight matchups, I’d prefer the Spurs.
But this answer is so simple. Really, you shouldn’t have to think about it. Home court trumps all. The Thunder can win on the road. They proved it in Denver. Starting a series at home though, is more important than anything else.
Plus, the Spurs are better than the Grizzlies. Against each other? The Grizzlies appear to have a real edge. As far as a team however, Ginobili, Duncan, Parker and the cast of role playing superstars is a better group than Zach Randolph, Marc Gasol and Tony Allen’s haircut. Either series will be a major challenge, but if we’re looking at which team presents the best opportunity to get to the Western Conference Finals (so fun to say), it has to be Memphis.
The way the Thunder wins — especially in the postseason — is behind great defense, good rebounding and lots of Kevin Durant. If there’s a night where you combine Good Russell Westbrook to that, the Thunder beats almost anyone. Combine James Harden, Serge Ibaka and the rest of the bench and this Thunder team is championship caliber. Seriously.
So how well does each team defend KD? Well, against Memphis in four games, Durant took four more shots per game than his regular season average and shot 47 percent (normal). He took more 3s than usual, averaging seven a game and hitting just 29 percent of those. KD’s offensive rating drops about five points and he’s a -5.3 per 48 minutes. Memphis forces KD midrange the most, where he was 19-40 against the Grizzlies.
Against San Antonio in three games, Durant averaged just 23.0 ppg and was a -13.7 per 48. KD’s percentages are right on average except from 3 (22 percent) and he gets to the free throw line less (6.3 attempts per game as opposed to 8.7 on the season). Durant’s offensive rating drops to just 93.5 and his true shooting percentage to 52.8 (down from 58.9).
Clearly, KD plays better against Memphis. It may have seemed like Tony Allen does great work on Durant, but that’s not entirely true. KD actually averages 28.9 ppg per 36 with Allen on the floor as opposed to 21.2 with him on the bench. Against Shane Battier though, Durant averaged 30.5 with Battier on the bench and 23.4 with him on the bench (per 36). Battier has always defended Durant well and I’d assume that’s who Lionel Hollins would go with on KD. (The main thing Battier does so well is defend KD without fouling. Durant gets just 3.8 free throws per 36 with Battier on the floor against 8.7 with him off.)
The Grizzlies have two good defenders to throw at Durant, but KD has succeeded a lot more against them than against the defensive system of San Antonio. Pretty interesting.
How about Russell Westbrook? Westbrook does not play well against the Spurs (17.3 ppg, 33 percent shooting, 93.94 offensive rating, 42.8 true shooting, 5.7 assists per game and a -12.3 per 48). Westbrook shot just 30 percent at the rim and 36 percent from midrange against San Antonio. Against Memphis, he’s much better (24.5 ppg, 9.0 apg, 103.59 offensive rating, 47 percent shooting, 56.1 true shooting). And most importantly, Westbrook gets to the rim with success much more against the Grizzlies (20-28).
The one wildcard to this that makes the Grizzlies feared by most in Thunder blue is Zach Randolph. In four games, Randolph averaged 26.5 ppg and 13.0 rpg and was a +7.3 per 48. Virtually every number across the board, is up. He destroyed OKC. However, a caveat: Those are all pre-Perk trade. Consider this: Against Jeff Green, Randolph averaged 23.7 points on 58 percent shooting and grabbed 12.0 rebounds per 36. With Green on the bench, that’s 19.0 points on 44 percent shooting. Against Serge Ibaka, those numbers aren’t a whole lot different, but Randolph is certainly less effective (rebounds to 9.3 per 36 and points to 20.7).
As a team though, the difference is fairly substantial. With Ibaka on the bench, Memphis was a +18.2 per 48. With him on the floor, a -8.6. That’s a really substantial difference. Their offensive rating goes from 115.0 to just 102.83 when Ibaka plays. Every rebounding number drops. They shoot 45.4 percent compared to 51.5 percent. Contrasted to Jeff Green, Memphis had an offensive rating of 103.24 with him on the court but just 95.90 with him on the bench. Ibaka a major wildcard in a series with both teams really, but with the Grizzlies, the frontline of Perk and Ibaka will have a major impact.
So back to the potential matchup. Not just in having homecourt but really the numbers agree — Memphis is the better match for the Thunder. I know what the eye says. It looks like the Spurs are vulnerable. It looks like they’re old. It looks like they’re more beatable. But don’t believe that. Homecourt is worth it’s weight over every stat and besides, it looks like the numbers favor a Grizz matchup anyway. Neither presents and “easy” road to the Western Finals. Both feel like seven-game material. And I don’t know about you, but I’d much rather have a Game 7 in OKC over playing a supposedly over-the-hill Spurs group.
cdub00 :
If somebody would have told me at the beginning of the year that we would have the chance to play the Grizz for a chance to go to the WCF, I would be like HELLZ YEAH!!!!
I agree! And we'll be have home court advantage, to boot!
We lost 3 of 4 to the Grizzlies, but for all but one of those games, Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic were still in our starting lineup. I think we'll obviously fare better with Ibaka/Perkins defending Randolph/Gasol.
I think KD will like being matched up with Shane Battier/Sam Young. Russ vs. Conley should be interesting. Hopefully Russ gets his confidence back.
Tony Allen always seems to have big games against us, but maybe that was because Thabo always had to help down low against the big guys, leaving Allen by himself on the perimeter.
I fear the Grizzlies home court more than the Spurs. Memphis' fans are rabid, similar to ours. We must take care of our home games, because I don't know if we'll be able to win in their building with their crowd as hyped up as they are now.
If somebody would have told me at the beginning of the year that we would have the chance to play the Grizz for a chance to go to the WCF, I would be like HELLZ YEAH!!!!
**got no love in this series FROM Pop.
Yeah I was shocked too that Blair got no love in this series vs Pop. I know it was a bad matchup for him but DNP? Is Pops losing his touch?
lol Jalen saying Z-bo is Moses Malone.
But still, he carried the team all series and hit some ridiculous, and I mean stupid ridiculous, shots.
John :
Wow, I just realized that either the Grizzlies or the Thunder will be in the Western Conference Finals.
Yeah that is wild. whodathunkit?
Skeletor :Noted. My wife will kill me if I don’t take her
haha...I know what you mean. I was lucky enough to score section 110 tix last year to game 3 (the first playoff game in OKC EVER) and got them for face value (60). I consider that my time in the sun. Unbeleivable experience. Can't say how excited I am to get round 2 started.
Grizz/Thunder could be one hell of a series. Denver will be a piss in the wind compared to this.
justin :@dream
catcher
I don’t think Memphis is as good on the perimeter as they are showing against San Antonio, for one. They were 7th worst on the season in opponent 3pt%. San Antonio’s lack of athleticism is what is killing them. Memphis is just beating them to the spots. I don’t think that would be as much of an issue for us. Memphis defends the mid range shot well which is the main thing they will take from us defensively, and they force a lot of turnovers. That’s all I’d really worry about from them. For as good as they are on the offensive glass, they are below average on the defensive glass. Basically, I think we’d have similar advantages against them that we did against Denver, only Memphis has a couple strong defenders to put on Durant. I think this is offset somewhat by Westbrook being checked by Mike Conley and not the Denver speedsters (and not having to chase them around).
I lean toward the idea that Denver’s defense was really good. It took Kevin Durant blowing up (facing some good defense a lot of the time) to produce offensively. Denver might be better defensively overall than Memphis, I feel confident that we can score on them.
Denver might be as good statistically, but they dont play with the same force which can give our 2 stars trouble. I think this is going 7.
Noted. My wife will kill me if I don't take her
@Skeletor
Nice. If you need a riding partner..I got my Thunder suit dialed in!
I'll be at that game. That's one reason I wanted Memphis to win. My dad is in a rotation with guys with season tickets, which is how I've got to go to some games. Dad's turn to go was next home game, and he does not want to go to a Sunday afternoon game
Thomas :Now that we’ll be playing a team in the central time zone will the NBA stop screwing us fans with the late night weeknight starts?
Nope. Two small market teams..you can be sure we will get the least favorable time slots. I am just glad it will be at noon on Sunday! We have some Sunday demons to express!!!
We win in 5 or win in 7
Thunder in 5. I called the Denver series too
@John
Pretty crazy stuff.
Hmm. Randolph got 16 pts in the 4th same as Durant. Durant's was more impressive though
andrew :
I also think Memphis might have an issue with complacency after winning the first round series. Hard to imagine they had any goals higher than that.
By the same token, I could see us taking them lightly.
Right now I will go OKC in 7.
Thats a good point. Betting against teams playing with house money is usually a good idea.
Wow, I just realized that either the Grizzlies or the Thunder will be in the Western Conference Finals.
I also think Memphis might have an issue with complacency after winning the first round series. Hard to imagine they had any goals higher than that.
By the same token, I could see us taking them lightly.
Right now I will go OKC in 7.
@jocro
Gay is a great player, but I think they play better team ball without him
Now that we'll be playing a team in the central time zone will the NBA stop screwing us fans with the late night weeknight starts?
Memphis on Sunday, Whooooo Hoooooooo!!!!!!!!!
Broadcasters saying Memphis is straight up more talented than San Antonio. I'm not too sure about that one. Especially with Rudy Gay out.
I feel bad for Duncan that he had to go to war with some combination of Dejuan Blair, Mcdyess, Splitter, and Bonner this year. Then I remember he has 4 championships and suddenly don't feel bad at all.
them Cocksuckers shoot like 100% from 3 pt with less than 30 seconds left
Sammy :
Oh, and Artest.
What about him?
justin :
Really happy for Zach Randolph though.
Kid of, I live one mile from The Breslin Center (Michigan States home court) and loved him teh one year he was here
Guess we have home court for the 2nd round! Memphis is pretty scary though.
I feel like we witnessing the end of an era here with San Antonio. Having watched them for years there's a part of me that's sad to see them go out like this. They are our model organization after all.
Duncan didn't even challenge that shot by Zbo. Sad.
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES, COME ON DOWN!
justin :
Randolph would get those shots spiked by Ibaka.
A good percentage of them, which would absolutely affect his approach
Oh, and Artest.
Really happy for Zach Randolph though.
wow. its over.
@Jimbo Slice
Tony Allen is the best perimeter defender I've seen since Bowen.
Man if Memphis holds on and makes it through the first round, that building is gonna be HELL to play in...
..... And I'll be there taking all the flack with my Durant jersey on! :D
@Sammy
comment retracted then lol. I knew he'd been killing defensively all year, but was dealing with a very small sample size for his offensive merit (watched about 5 Memphis games this year)
Randolph would get those shots spiked by Ibaka.
Spurs are a better match up for us
PLEEAAAASSEEE Memphis!!!
This might be Antonio McDyess' last game.
@Jimbo Slice
Allen is so much better than Thabo defensively and has been really efficient on offense all year. He's been fantastic.
Z-Bo is frikkin clutch
We need Memphis to win this. We'll have much more of a chance with HCA.
May I just say that I'm glad we have Thabo and not Tony Allen? Allen's like a more confident, and therefore stupider, Thabo with similar offensive skill. If you're Tony Allen and Zach Randolph wants the ball, you do not run a pick n roll with Gasol for yourself. You give the frikkin ball to Zach Randolph.
And also, ESPN is so much better than TNT. Being able to watch on my computer since my satellite dish got blown away in the Tornados (still thanking God that that and a tree in my yard is all that happened) is priceless.
Come on Memphis. Don't choke like Dallas
Daniel Plainview :@cdub00
I prefer the Heat in the finals. The drama would be much, much greater, as well as highlights. KD vs Kobe will be amazing
Yeah Heat vs Thunder would be prolific. I think the Mavs beat the Lakers in 7 games. (wishful thinking maybe)...