Garrett W. Ellwood/NBAE/Getty Images
I think I’d like to modify my stance from three weeks ago that Thunder fans should fear the Trail Blazers more as a potential playoff foe than the Nuggets. The Nuggets scare the crap out of me right now.
A lot of that of course has to do with Denver continuing to win. Like a lot of people, I figured the Nuggets would eventually cool down at least a little bit after the tear they started following the Carmelo Anthony trade. But they haven’t. They’re right there with the Lakers, Thunder, Bulls and Heat as one of the hottest teams in the NBA right now.
But what really makes me think that they’re the team Oklahoma City would have the most trouble with in the first round is that they have no pressure. They played until just after the All-Star break with a gigantic black cloud following them in the Anthony trade stuff. Once the trade actually went down, few expected much from them in terms of a late run. Many expected something akin to what the Jazz are going through after the Deron Wiliams trade, although probably not as severe. It’s hard to win in the NBA without a true star, especially in the playoffs, and Denver doesn’t have one.
The fan base surely is delirious at this point. They didn’t expect this kind of run after the break even with Anthony, much less without him. Nuggets fans are positively giddy. My friends in Denver confirm this. The Nuggets have already exceeded the fans’ post-trade expectations. They’re playing with house money, and the regular season still has a couple of weeks to go. No matter what happens, the city is proud of its team.
You know who that reminds me of? Last season’s Thunder. The circumstances are entirely different, to be sure. Denver fans have already tasted a bit of playoff success in recent seasons, and Oklahoma City’s hadn’t ever. But remember the moment (that still gives me goosebumps) from the end of Game 6 last year when Thunder fans instantly gave their team a standing ovation when the series ended in defeat? If there’s any team in the NBA that could get the same response from its fans after a first-round exit, it has to be the Nuggets. Maybe the 76ers could get a similar reaction because of their tough start, or even the Grizzlies if they give the Spurs or Lakers a nice run, but I don’t know.
So what does that mean? Denver is going to be loose. The players will have no weight on their shoulders as they go through warm-ups in Game 1 in a sea of blue in Oklahoma City. They’ll be a confident bunch, and they’ll be ready to compete. But the Thunder, for the first time in the burgeoning careers of most of the young players, will be feeling a little bit of pressure. If the Thunder loses to Denver with home court, it’s an upset. The fans won’t be serenading them with a standing ovation if the series ends in Oklahoma City with a Nuggets win, that’s for sure. I can only imagine what the talk will be like over the summer, or during an extended lockout, in the Daily Thunder comment section in particular. Fans will not be pleased.
Now, the Thunder is a confident bunch itself. It’s not like Oklahoma City is limping into the playoffs, as it sort of did last year when stumbling a bit down the stretch, and there was no limping in the Lakers series at all. I think the Thunder players will be confident, focused and ready. But there’s no doubt who will be feeling more pressure as the series unfolds.
There’s one thing that Oklahoma City can certainly control that could plant a seed of doubt into the minds of the otherwise red-hot Denver players: the two upcoming games the teams play against each other. If the Thunder can win both of those, you know that will be in the back of the minds of the Nuggets as they prepare to face Oklahoma City, especially if the Thunder can then win Game 1 at home. It’s obvious to me that Oklahoma City is the better team in an 82-game NBA season, and should certainly be the better team in a seven-game series with home court. Winning one of the upcoming two games would be nice, and expected to be honest, but winning both would send a message.
There’s still time for Denver to cool off a little bit before the playoffs start. The Nuggets play Sacramento tonight and then start a tough four-game stretch (@LAL, OKC, @DAL, @OKC) before finishing with three games they should win (MIN, GSW, @UTA). Going better than 5-3 in that stretch would be impressive, and 5-3 is already cooling off when compared to their recent tear (winners of 14 of their last 18).
What keeps me warm at night when pondering this potential series is Denver’s 14-22 road record, which is the worst of any current West playoff team and far worse than the Thunder’s mirror-image 22-14. The Nuggets are lethal at home — at 31-7 they have the third-fewest home losses in the NBA — and that scares me a bit. But the Thunder seems more likely to steal one in Denver than the Nuggets stealing one in Oklahoma City. Game 7s scare me because anything can happen, but I could see the Thunder doing to Denver what the Lakers did to OKC last season by winning a Game 6. Winning Game 3 or 4 would be better for my cardiovascular health, though.
Maybe my mind will change again after Denver and Oklahoma City square off in the upcoming home-and-home. Maybe it’ll change again as soon as tonight if Portland blisters the Thunder. But the Trail Blazers don’t even come close to beating the Thunder last Sunday if Gerald Wallace doesn’t go for 76 points on 97 percent shooting (or whatever it actually was, I already blacked it out and that’s what it seemed like). Combine the Nuggets’ looseness, hot streak and high-altitude home venue, and I’m going to be stopping by Walgreens for some antacids if Denver is the Thunder’s first-round opponent.
@TempBoy Brandon
Sorry I blacked out for a minute, what happened?? :)
I'm more worried about Denver. I think K Mart and Birdman being healthy is an underrated advantage for Denver. I also think they have tremendous size/length and depth. No one on their roster other than their pgs is under 6'5". Then they have the "mile high" advantage. IF everyone on Denver is healthy, they are a heck of a match-up. I think Camby and Roy will show wear and tear in a playoff series, which negates some of Portland's strength.
@TempBoy Brandon
Cowboys suck. Steal some more jewelry thugs. Don't let your pants trip you when you run.
Here's my fanship ranking, in order of who I love the most:
1a. Dallas Cowboys
1b. OKC Thunder
3. OU Sooners football
4. OU Sooners basketball
5. Deer Creek High School football (ha! personal ties)
It's pretty mindblowing to me that after being an OU fan my entire life (I'm 34), the Thunder have officially passed them in my heart. That's how much I love this team.
@Joel
personally as an OU and Thunder fan, I think the Thunder seasons are a much better return on investment, but I'm more of a Thunder fan than OU, so take it for what its worth.
The Oklahoman doesn't have anything up about tonight's game yet. Lazy!
@Patrick James
I debated whether to get OU Football season tickets, or Thunder season tickets last year (this current playing year). OU won out due to the fact that I refuse to sit up in loud city and I would have to get 2 tickets. 900 dollars vs 4400 dollars. I chose OU - I may not do the same for 2011 though. If I go to a Thunder game (which is fairly often) I usually pick up a ticket in the corner or behind the baskets, just so I can see (and feel) whats going on, on the floor.
Decisions, decisions.
@gr8ball83
I personally think he's finished as an impact player in this league, but that would just be Portland's luck, wouldn't it? Hopefully he saved the money he's gotten so far, because he really is a good kid who didn't deserve all that happened to him
@Keith
If he goes to Phoenix you just know he's going to be an 8 time All-Star with that training staff...
@andrew
From whom? Not putting it past the bevy of stupid people in charge of NBA teams, but 10 million, really? I'm going to be surprised if Portland even gives him the qualifying offer. Oden is already at the same point in his career as Tracy McGrady right now. His best bet is to take a pittance, go somewhere new with a better training staff (Phoenix and Detroit come to mind), where the team doesn't need him to immediately contribute, and play his way into a bigger contract. What GM is really thinking, "Hey, I know he hasn't been healthy since grade school, apparently has joints made of glass and rubber bands, and looks like he's aged as fast as Robin Williams in Jack, but man, I can't wait to mortgage the future of this franchise on him."
@Joel
@paddycakes
Best way to combat that is to get cheap season tickets. Then you get access to cheap playoff tickets. You can pay in six month installments to make it more affordable, and split the tickets with someone else as well. I had friends last year who spend $250 each for one game in the playoffs and wisely decided it would be better to spend $430 each over six months for the cheapest season ticket package this year instead. As a Loud City season ticket holder myself in that price range, I readily endorse this way of doing it.
paddycakes :
congrats : ) Its my birthday today even though no one will believe me, but all I want this year is a win tonight and to get tickets for the playffs
Good luck man.. I had to put down some dinero for Game 6 tickets last year.. You wanna bet that they are more expensive this year? :)
Portland fans also think Oden is going to get more than 10 million per this summer.
I asked Thabo what his pregame routine was on twitter... he answered!
Thabo Sefolosha@Tronchaser1972
@
#AskThabo
1 hour ago Favorite Retweet Reply
Pretty cool man.
I know, it was just a stupid speculatory point in Simmons column. Comments like "one healthy year from oden is more valuable than 4 years from hibbert" crack me up.
@justin
I still couldn't see a team trading a real, on court asset for Oden. Even if Oden's ceiling is miles above Hibbert's, you don't trade a healthy true 7 footer after his first "breakout" year for a guy who can't even suit up. That's not playing dice, that's playing Russian roulette, but every chamber has a bullet - you are betting the powder or gun will malfunction.
Um, Oden's contract ends this offseason, they can't trade him anyway...
@andrew
they cant trade oden because as soon as they do he will become healthy when out from under the blazer curse and become an allstar
LOL Blazer fans saying they wouldn't trade Oden for Hibbert.
congrats : ) Its my birthday today even though no one will believe me, but all I want this year is a win tonight and to get tickets for the playffs
iaintascaredanobody!
Kinda impressed that daily THUNDER is allowed to link streams through espn, not that im not completely thankful.
haha, anybody read Bill Simmons newest article? Sounds like he took the Derrick Rose shouldn't be MVP comments awfully personal...
http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=simmons/110401&sportCat=nba
@dream catcher
These are very small samples for the last lineup, and when we have used Harden with the starters, it's usually to close games, and he hardly shoots...
i also hope that the spurs can mainstain that #1 seed...would much rather play them than the lakers in round 2
Westbrook/Sefolosha/Durant/Ibaka/Perkins: 103.9 ORTG, 97.6 DRTG, 129.1 Min
Maynor/Harden/Cook/Collison/Mohammed: 109.8 ORTG, 97.4 DRTG, 60.6 Min
Westbrook/HARDEN/Durant/Ibaka/Perkins: 103.8 ORTG, 96.3 DRTG, 44.0 Min
Looking at those stats, it seems pretty accurate with my eye test, except for the last lineup offensively. Looks like Harden is struggling getting acclimated with Westbrook and KD which passes the eye test as well. Defensively we are very good with all 3 lineups.
@paddycakes
i think they should cut the season by 6 games for cba cost cutting reasons, but it would require fewer b2bs
Its just that i adds an unnecessary burden on players health and affects the level of play. On the plus side being one of the youngest teams its not been much of a factor.
@Ian
That is not the reason,we are a better team is the reson.
We have 17 B2Bs (3rd fewest), and we have one on the best records IIRC on 2nd night of B2Bs.
Big game tonight. I'm going to be very interested to see how the new-look thunder handle getting a good team's best effort on the road. A win tonight would go a long way to establish the team as a true contender this year (at least in my mind).
@f5alcon
Not so much just the THUNDER, {although thats my main issue} but rather the whole league, I love the fact that there are always games going on but the amount of games is way to high would love to see fewer back to backs as a whole although i do see the issues with a season being baseball long.
@justin
Different team last year, also. Much better established pecking order mostly (minus Thabo) for the right players. But I wouldn't put it past Brooks to not adjust to something.
@paddycakes
i am pretty sure we had the fewest back to backs of any team in the nba
@paddycakes
I'm guessing we lose a close one (102-98 Portland sounds about right) tonight, but bounce back strongly tomorrow for a solid win.
any guesses on score tonight? 102 98 THUNDER imo, but very sick of back to backs we may be young but come on.
I'm extremely nervous that I won't be able to get tickets,r can't afford markup prices.
I guess minutes per game could be thrown off by the blowout.
@Keith
This did not seem to happen last year, though...
Am sorry Thunder fans, Denver Nuggets will be a tough match up... The only reason OKC is ahead of the Nuggets, is due to Nuggets very poor road record. But after the Carmelo trade, the Nuggets have been playing very well on the raod. A bad loss to Orlando on a buzzer beating 3-pointer from Nelson. And a 5 point loss to Miami.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PER-OHBsSkY
I can't wait until we play Denver in a few days. Nene/Perkins will be a great matchup. I'm also pretty interested how Westbrook matches up with the Lawson/Felton rotation Denver can throw out.
@dream catcher
I don't think we shorten the rotation in that all the same guys still see minutes, but it's highly likely that the bench players' minutes go down. Russ and KD probably average 40+ minutes each game. Ibaka and Perk are going to play as many minutes as fouls allow. The only thing that will hopefully change is playing Harden as much as possible.
In a perfect world, this would be my rotation for the playoffs.
Russ - 40 mpg Maynor - 8 mpg
Thabo = 15 mpg Harden - 33 mpg
Durant- 40 mpg Cook - 8 mpg
Ibaka - 32 mpg Collison - 16 mpg
Perk - 30 mpg Mohammed - 18 mpg
Trying to be realistic in that Brooks probably won't start Harden. In this case, Thabo would play the first 7-8 minutes of the 1st and third and try wearing down the opposing starter, and Harden would replace him into halftime and endgame.
@paddycakes
goosebumps
@dream catcher
cook might not play as much same with nazr but i think brooks will go with what is working
Brooks stuck to the rotations last year even though Maynor was horrible and Russ was our best player. I'd like to think he would get more minutes to the key guys but who knows.
Keith :
I look forward to whomever we play. As it’s been said, losing in the first round would be an upset. None of the 4-8 seeds are better than us, have great matchups with us, nor have the sort of playoff experience that might give them a leg up. Go Thunder, bring it all the way through the post-season.
Yep, people keep saying Denver is so deep, well I hate to break it to them but our 5 man bench is pretty damn good as well and I would go to war with that group vs anyone else's bench.
Do you guys think we shorten the rotation during the playoffs, or are we going to do the same thing we have been doing? Maynor/Harden/Cook/Collison/Nazr is a formidable group. Good floor spacing, good ball movement, good toughness, solid interior defense, but average perimeter defense.
I look forward to whomever we play. As it's been said, losing in the first round would be an upset. None of the 4-8 seeds are better than us, have great matchups with us, nor have the sort of playoff experience that might give them a leg up. Go Thunder, bring it all the way through the post-season.
Im ready for the playoffs. ThunderUp
long time reader and first time commenter watched this and it made me cry : ) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9N7ZwdSCMl8 I think i am ready for the playoffs.