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Reader Nick sent this whole piece in to me. He said in the email that he was just putting together a spreadsheet out of his own curiosity and then decided to write a bit of it out. And as a result, this column happened. So have a read. Pretty interesting stuff.
I think everybody would agree that the Thunder have been a different team since Kendrick Perkins joined the team. Many would cite the group’s newfound toughness and refusal to back down (not to mention their increased penchant to pick up Ts) as the major way the team has changed. I thought it would be interesting to take a more statistical look at how Perkins has changed the team. Much of this stuff has been discussed in the comments section here and there, but I thought it would be good to put a bunch of stuff it in one place.
First, let’s take a look at the team as a whole. The consensus at the time of the trade was that the Thunder were giving up offense for defense by swapping two offensive players (Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic) for two defensive players (Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka) in the starting lineup. As such, one would expect the Thunder to be a stalwart defensively and struggle offensively since the trade. Um, no. Before Perk (or BP as I’ll refer to it from here on out, for convenience sake and because it makes Perkins seem like a savior), the Thunder had a solid ORTG of 110.6 and a decent DRTG of 107.7.
Over the course of the entire season, those numbers would be good for 8th and 16th in the league respectively. After Perk (AP for short and savior connotations) the Thunder has an ORTG of 114.0 and a DRTG of 104.8. Over the course of the entire season, those numbers would be good for 1st (!) and 7th in the league. So the Thunder has gone from a good offensive and decent defensive team to an offensive juggernaut that also plays good defense. Not quite what you would expect from trading for a guy with a PER of 10 on the season. Not only with the Thunder’s ORTG AP be best in the NBA over the course of the season, it wouldn’t even be close – Denver ranks first in the NBA with an ORTG of 112.1 on the season. Not quite what you would expect from trading for a guy with a PER of 10 on the year.
Of course, there’s a lot more to the trade than swapping Jeff Green and Nenad Krstic for Kendrick Perkins. The trade has opened up a big hole in the Thunder’s offense that had to be filled by someone other than the guy coming from Boston (unless you really like awkward, slow postups and lots of turnovers). That responsibility has mostly fallen on the shoulders of James Harden, and suffice it to say he’s been terrific. Check out the table below for Harden’s stats before and after the trade (this includes the games before Perkins actually started playing).
Basically, Harden has been terrific across the board. Some numbers especially worth highlighting:
- Harden has managed to up his TS% from 59.2% to 61.6% while taking on an increased load (evidenced by his increase in USG from 17.9 to 23.0). That’s cool.
- Harden has managed this increased efficiency despite the fact that he’s had an abnormally difficult time from 3PT range. So his efficiency could be even better, which is kind of a scary thought.
- That linear PER (an estimation of PER, which can’t really be calculated for splits like this) would rank Harden 5th amongst all shooting guards for the season. So we have a potential top 5 SG coming off the bench (the logic of that can be questioned, but that’s a discussion for another day. Or for every single day in the comments section).
- James Harden is awesome. That’s not a number or anything, I just felt like adding that in there.
The trade hasn’t just had a beneficial effect on Harden though. One doesn’t need a bunch of numbers to see the effect Perk has had on Serge Ibaka, but I’ll give you the numbers anyway. Take a look at the table below for Ibaka’s number BP and AP.
These numbers actually suggest something a little different to me – that Serge Ibaka was a hell of a player even before Perk showed up, and he damn well deserved to be the starting PF on this team. Most of his numbers since Perk arrived have actually fallen pretty much in line with his numbers BP on a per minute basis. In fact, Ibaka has actually struggled slightly offensively AP in comparison with his efficiency numbers BP.
This isn’t incredibly surprising given the increased load Ibaka has taken on (note the increase in USG), but Ibaka hasn’t been able to buck the trend of losing some efficiency with a greater load the way Harden has. Of course, the major effect that Perk has had on Ibaka has been on the other end of the floor. Most of these numbers don’t show that effect, but one of them does: blocks. Since Perk started playing, Serge has averaged a ridiculous 3.9 blocks per 36 minutes. That’s absurd. For reference, the league leader in blocks per 36 minutes on the season is none other than Serge Ibaka at 3.2 blocks per 36 minutes. So Serge has gone from the best per minute shot blocker in the league to the WAY best per minutes shot blocker in the league. This is the part where I mention that Serge Ibaka is awesome.
I think that summarizes the major statistical changes in the Thunder resulting from the Perkins trade. Its also worth noting that, after a bit of a rocky start, the Thunder superstars haven’t really lost anything since Perk arrived. To back that statement up with one number, the linear PER for Russell Westbrook has gone from 24.0 BP to 22.0 AP, while the linear PER from Kevin Durant has gone from 23.7 BP to 24.2 AP. Westbrook has fallen off a little, but there have been encouraging signs in the past few games and the dropoff has been pretty minimal. Durant, meanwhile, has actually played slightly better in terms of linear PER since Perk started playing.
So, to summarize – Harden and Ibaka have been better, and Durant and Westbrook haven’t really lost anything. Sounds pretty awesome. And that’s before you even factor in the sheer badassery brought by Perkins and all the other effects Perk has had that can’t be adequately measured statistically. I’m gonna go out on a limb here and say this was a pretty good trade.
Free Cook, Nate and Ivey
I dont know if this has been shown or not. This is KD's new Gatorade commercial.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ziThIko2fqI
I know I'm a 2nd team homer, but I think that having such a strong 2nd team has helped the Thunder in an area that's often pointed to as one of the reasons for their success over the last two years and that is their lack of injuries. The longer a player is on the court, the better their odds of getting hurt. Being able to turn the game over to the 2nd team with the confidence that they'll hold the game even, at worst, buys us some insurance against one of our starters getting injured. This is why I wish KD would sit the hell down more often and let Daequan get a few more minutes. lol
no i agree with Pinto, We saw what happened to Bynum yesturday, We don't want to risk it, besides Maynor/Cook/Harden/Collison/Nazr fun to watch as well. Especially when you see Cook shoot a 3 you know its almost automatic now. if anything, Maynor/Harden/Cook/Ibaka/Nazr
From teh commentary of teh 5 0n 5 at ESPN
ttinsley69 (4/13/2011 at 1:51 PM)
Chris Palmer, why do you hold a grudge against the OKC Thunder?? First, you say that Blake Griffin is already better than the Durantula (worst analysis in ESPN history??). Now, you predict the Thunder will lose to the Nuggets in seven? Are you from Seattle? KD will eat Galo alive and Lawson is too small to hold his own against Westbrook. Perk and Iblocka will dominate the paint against a lackluster Kenyon Martin and strong Nene. Thunder will win this series in five-six. Also, you think Galo will be the breakout star in this years playoffs?! WHO ARE YOU?!?!?!
@cdspark
Thanks, sir!
@cdspark
upon further research, I see that is not a reseed process
The Bracket is firm (1-8) vs (4-5) and (2-7) vs (3-6)
@Daniel Plainview
If I remember correctly, the second round is "re-seeded" based on the results of the first round. I may be wrong but I remember hearing that.
Dallas fans must HATE it that out last game is against Milwaukee and they play the hornets. But do the Hornets have any reason to try and win another? DO they improve their seed with a W?
@TempBoy Brandon
Youre not the only nerd who thinks that. Im very stats conscious and want him to be the greatest scorer ever and hate it when ever he doesnt score 40 points, unless he shoots 50% plus from both 2 and 3pts
According to Pinto on the radio yesterday, Brooks doesn't see the advantage of sitting out the players for rest. 81 games so far, average 30 min/game yields 2430 min. Do you think that the 30 minutes not played tonite is going to make a big difference? Remember, there is a minimum of 2 days rest coming before the playoffs start, and there are at least 2 days between games after that.
Having said all that, not playing the starters in order to avoid any injury has some merit to it.
And from a selfish side, I am going to the game and would like to see them play.
Come on Hornets!! How do the seeds play out? Who does teh winner of teh 4-5 play?
@Keith
Sorry, I just don't get the sense in playing the starters for a quarter. The only reason I could understand is for the fans who are in the stands. Sometimes, one game is all anyone will ever be able to see, so it stinks for them if they come out and don't get to see KD, Russ, Serge, etc..
But I don't think one more quarter of practice together is going to make any difference, and I hate to harp on it, but I really do hate the stats hit. For instance, I'd hate to see KD's 27.9 drop down to 27.7. I'd actually love to see it raise to a nice, clean 28.0. I can't be the only nerd who thinks this way.
Now, if we are talking practicing together as much as possible before the playoffs, then I think we play the whole game as normal.
Wouldnt say the game is meaningless when its a difference of 3 or 4 seed
@Daniel Plainview
As long as he keeps up the efficiency and takes those extra shots from Thabo/Russ.
Man. Kobe averaged 27 shots a game one year, i dont think KD will ever near that just because he has a conscience. I hope he loses it sometime in teh future and averages 37 pts a game.
Playing the starter for the first quarter and then sitting them makes the most sense. Everyone gets their GP and GS, they get a little more practice together, and we possibly get the lead. But from there it doesn't make any realistic sense to play them. We aren't playing a top team, and our bench has been consistently really good all year. If we win, sweet. If not, oh well.
I would rather be assured the starters are healthy (minus Thabo, he can play as long as he wants since the more important player is Harden) and focused on the playoffs instead of a meaningless end of regular season game.
I have three open pg/guard spots, and I have Wade, Nash, Lawson, Westbrook, and Parker on my fantasy team. And I have no idea who is going to play and who is going to sit tonight. I"m up 6-4 right now in the last day of the championship week too...bah
@gr8ball83
Yeah...crazy, wasn't it? Even some of the quarterbacks who got drafted ahead of Brady are now saying, "What were you guys thinking?" LOL
A couple of thoughts...
Do you think our staff will be watching the score of the Mavs game tonight and base any decisions on it? For instance, they see the Mavs are down by 10 going into the 4th quarter... you think we insert Royal, Nate, Mullens, etc? I doubt this happens, but it's kinda fun to think about.
Also, I hate the idea of just playing our starters for a quarter or so. I don't know what good that would do, and I'm a nerd, but I don't like the stats hit our guys would take. I'd rather them just not play than play a quarter.
Here's hoping they unveil the division champs banner tonight.
Vegas summer league cancelled.
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?id=6344031
gr8ball83 :@TaoMaas
I watched that also, I can’t believe some of the qb’s that were drafted, some were stats based, some workout based, and some I have no clue. how do you draft a guy that completes 47% of his passes for 12 td’s and 13 int’s at West Texas State…..
Sorry, not trying to pick on Sooner fans, and perhaps he is always on the threshold of consciousness when QBs are discussed, but see: Jason WHite
@TaoMaas
I watched that also, I can't believe some of the qb's that were drafted, some were stats based, some workout based, and some I have no clue. how do you draft a guy that completes 47% of his passes for 12 td's and 13 int's at West Texas State.....
I'm sorry this is kinda backtracking, but I haven't had a chance to post since last night. First off, I want to apologize to Nick for implying that I didn't like his article. The truth is, I liked it a lot. Perk has made a HUGE difference in the Thunder. And even though I was griping about Nazr's contributions being overlooked, my personal feeling is that I think Perk's attitude might well have a lot to do with how well Nazr has played this year. When Perk says, "No layups!", I think the whole team buys into it because I don't think any of them really want to sit beside him on the bench and debate the point. LOL I just have a personal issue with relying too much on stats because I think they only tell part of the story. Last night, ESPN ran "The Year of the Quarterbacks" which was all about how wrong it can be to rely upon stats alone.
andrew :I selfishly don’t want to rest Russ because that would be his first missed game since he came into the NBA.
I feel the same way. I don't think he's ever played less than 19 minutes in a game since he entered the League. I don't think one more game is going mess with his mojo /anti-jinx.
KD and Russ should not even have to take their warmups off tonight.
@Daniel Plainview
For the championship
Grolgar :
I think we should go ahead and let the starters play a decent amount in the 1st half to keep their flow, but then let the bench finish the 2nd half… Just my opinion.
From a fantasy point of view, I do not like this, Im currently tied 4-4.
I think we should go ahead and let the starters play a decent amount in the 1st half to keep their flow, but then let the bench finish the 2nd half... Just my opinion.
wow, I know pro athletes are terrible with money and all, but this is just ridiculous...
http://www.thepostgame.com/features/201104/tpg-exclusive-cash-strapped-nfl-players-seeking-high-risk-lockout-loans
TC_42 :If you thought saying Griffin > KD was bad, this week in his power rankings, Dave Del Grande said Griffin was better than Kobe.
Dave Del Grande?? Sounds like something I would order at Taco Bell.
Denver win many games by their talent and great bench depth.But our talent and bench are better than them.Maybe they can be nightmare of Dallas,but I dont worried them
If you thought saying Griffin > KD was bad, this week in his power rankings, Dave Del Grande said Griffin was better than Kobe.
Chris Palmer is idiotic and fickle. So when we play Blake he writes and/or tweets about how Blake is the best player on the court. However, after we beat LA, he tweeted, "who would win 1-on-1, Lebron or Kevin Durant," implying that he was putting KD back on "Lebron level."
If RW decides not to focus on defense and Lawson gives him fits, could Nate be brought in at times to disrupt his speed and flow? I think when RW wants to, he can put the clamps on
Palmer must only watch highlights because all the stuff he says about Gallinari might be true, however he does not mentuon that he might be the leagues streakiest player. Danillo has plenty of akills for a big man, like. Dirk-lite, but he can go games as a non-entity, how does a paid writer for ESPN not know this?
@kfmsooner
Jesus, that Pamer stooge was also working on Danillos knob pretty hard too. Did he write this bwfore our doubke victory against the nuggs? Did you read the backlash this fool received after his Griffin>Durant article? The vitriol that foolowed was as if he wrote it on this board. I agree Chandlwr is an underrated defender, but after what KD did to Lebron and Artest since the all star break he would sooner or later come to his senses. Denver might win some home games, but i wont go past 6. Theyre tough but they just havent been playing together long enough
Daniel Hawaii :
Let’s rock this lineup tomorrow:
PG: Eric Maynor
SG: Daequan Cook
SF: Thabo Sefolosha
PF: Cole Aldrich
C: Nazr Mohammed
Bench: Nate Robinson, Royal Ivey, Robert Vaden, Byron “BJ” Mullens
DNP: Russ, KD, James, Serge, Perk, Nick
What about Collison? Aldrich probably won't play because he's playing in the D-league playoffs.
I certainly agree with resting Durant and Westbrook completely. Maybe play Ibaka and Perkins for the 1st quarter then take them out, and limit Sefolosha and Harden to less than 20 minutes.
"Who will be the breakout star of the 2011 postseason?
Kyle Weidie, Truth About It: A FIBA championship in Turkey last summer has only fueled Russell Westbrook's fire this season. An All-Star for the first time this season, Westbrook is clearly making a name for himself, but this year's playoffs will propel him to nationwide recognition. Last season, he upped his effective field goal percentage from .452 in the regular season to .500 in his first playoff appearance. This time, opponents won't know who to prepare for more, Westbrook or Kevin Durant.
James Ham, Cowbell Kingdom: Russell Westbrook. While Durant will make it all look so easy, Westbrook will eat Lawson and Felton for lunch. I know, I just bet against the Thunder, but look for Westbrook to make his name in a hard-fought series against Tony Parker. They'll lose, but they'll do it with style.
Dan Feldman, PistonPowered: Russell Westbrook. Kevin Durant has always overshadowed him, mostly deservedly, because Durant is one of the game's top young stars. With several potential matchups against teams, most notably the Lakers, ill-equipped to defend a big and fast point guard, Westbrook should show the world he's better than a typical sidekick.
"Chris Palmer, ESPN The Magazine: The Denver Nuggets will upset the darlings of the Western Conference, the Oklahoma City Thunder, in seven games. Since the Melo trade, the Nuggets have had one of the top records in the league thanks to a versatile offense that shares the wealth and one of the league's deepest benches. They're an extremely well-coached defense with the league's most underrated defender (Wilson Chandler), who'll give Kevin Durant fits."
http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/news/story?page=5-on-5-110413
rest russell he went through a slump a couple weeks ago. It was a great trade because we got who we needed to unleash ibaka. and harden should start or at least play 30+ min every night
Thabo could probably use a game off.
I selfishly don't want to rest Russ because that would be his first missed game since he came into the NBA.
Let's rock this lineup tomorrow:
PG: Eric Maynor
SG: Daequan Cook
SF: Thabo Sefolosha
PF: Cole Aldrich
C: Nazr Mohammed
Bench: Nate Robinson, Royal Ivey, Robert Vaden, Byron "BJ" Mullens
DNP: Russ, KD, James, Serge, Perk, Nick
Have you read the other post??
Just like to say thanks to Nazr Mohammed, who seems to get left out of all of these post trade conversations.. remember that he started 9 games at the 5 while we waited for Perk to recover, and is now adding much needed low post offense to our second unit without sacrificing size or defense.. i love Perk and everything that he has brought to the team, but Naz is a very overlooked trade asset who is going to be a difference maker come playoffs
And with that lineup, we'd STILL probably beat the Bucks! LOL.
Should we rest our starters against Milwaukee? I know it won't happen, but should we?
I think we should if for no other reason than to avoid getting anyone hurt before the playoffs, i.e. Andrew Bynum.
Plus we could run out a frontcourt of Cole Aldrich and Byron Mullens with Nate Robinson in there too. How fun would that be!
@OUThunderfan
And go Thunder!
Yea Iam hoping Dallas wins
I guess its go Dallas, go Clippers, and go Kings!