vs. 
Memphis Grizzlies (7-5, 2-4 road) vs. OKC Thunder (7-4, 5-1 home)
TV: ABC (Cox 8, HD 705);
Stream: Click here
Radio: WWLS The Sports Animal (98.1 FM, 640 AM, 97.1 FM Tulsa)
Time: 2:30 CT
Series: Series tied 3-3
View from the enemy: 3 Shades of Blue
I’m not sure there’s anything that anyone can say that will take the edge off. This is Game 7. This is big time.
At this point, we definitely know the matchups, we know the adjustments, we know what it takes. I think the Thunder’s a more talented team. Actually, I’m pretty sure I know that. But are they the better team? That’s to be decided today.
Now I don’t have much experience with Game 7 basketball, so I’m a lot like the actual team. Maybe ignorance is bliss here because not thinking too much about the magnitude of the game might be a good thing. Dwell on the importance, and things might get tense.
Because here’s the somewhat sobering reality: The Thunder’s season could end today. Just like that, all this fun, all this excitement, could come to an end. It’s terrifying, but in my mind, regardless of the result. this has been a wonderful season. An opportunity is here and it would be a shame to miss out on it, but I’m not going to curse the heavens if OKC loses. Still, losing a Game 7 at home sets a poor precedent and isn’t something I want to spend a summer thinking about. I’m assume the team is thinking the same thing.
The question is, which teams show up? Is it the Game 5 Thunder versus the Game 6 Grizzlies? The Game 6 Thunder versus the Game 6 Grizzlies? Or Game 5 Thunder versus Game 6 Grizzlies? We’ve seen varying degrees of basketball quality the past few days and I’m not sure what to think. I refuse to believe Kevin Durant will shoot the ball poorly again, but is Zach Randolph back in a groove? Will the Thunder press and try too hard? Will the role players step up? Will Russell Westbrook force things? I have about a million questions and I’m almost too afraid of what the answer will be.
Here’s good news: OKC is 24-6 in bounce back games, including the playoffs. On top of that, the Thunder have lost only once at home after suffering a loss the game before and that was right after the trade where OKC was shorthanded. A stat like that doesn’t guarantee anything, but if you’re looking for something to hold on to for dear life, take refuge in the bounce back stat.
As far as an adjustment, it’s very unlikely Scott Brooks alters his starting five for this game to match Memphis. I would put the chance at about 0.0005 percent. And I understand why Brooks doesn’t. I think a lot like him. Stick with what got you here. Now’s not the time to go tinkering and messing with things. If it doesn’t work, that’s immediately what everyone will point at.
At the same time though, the playoffs are when you can’t mess around. We saw the damage in Game 6 and it wasn’t pretty. It might be a risk to knee-jerk and change up things, but it also might be the difference in winning and losing. But that’s why Scott Brooks makes a lot of money. He’s the one that has to make these decisions. He’s going with what he thinks puts the Thunder in the best position to win. Sometimes he’s right, sometimes he’s wrong.
Let’s just hope he gets it right today.
Tip at 2:30 CT. Go Game 7.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dTDeFXp26S8
Dallas has been playing the 2nd slowest pace in the playoffs, Thunder the second fastest. Almost a 6 possession difference.
Correction: Dallas is not better than the playoff average on any "other" major category ("besides the ones I previously mentioned") except assists.
Dallas probably has to win at SG and C to win the series unless one of Russ & KD under-performs.
Ibaka's health and performance will be pretty key.
Dallas is not better than the playoff average on any major category except assists.
By the numbers the Thunder's playoff strengths have been getting to the line (2nd), offensive rebounding (4th), shot defense (1st) and defensive rebounding (5th).
The Thunder weakest links maybe own turnovers and forcing them but the Mavs are the weakest at forcing them.
@Surreal
+22 and +24. Thabo -5
Just got back from the game. There were a ton of Grizz fans in the crowd .. I was impressed. Outside of OKC, I think their fan base is growing to be one of the best in the nation as well. I know we made the trades midseason so we could battle LA, but the moves came in very handy in this great series! When our team plays like that, we are legit title contenders. To the stat guys (this may have already been said, haven't gone through all the comments) it seems like lineups w/ Nick & Harden we looked soo much better on offense & defense .. do the #s back up the eyeball test in this case? (esp. interested in +/-)
Perkins Game Face :
Nick has been worth everything he’s getting paid this year and then some. Does he continue to see a lot more minutes against Dallas? Serge just doesn’t look right, hurt more than we thought.
Dallas bigs are less physical, should be better for Serge I think.
The 3 things the Mavs have done best in the playoffs are shooting the rock but especially from 2 pt range (1st), not fouling (4th) and defending the 3 pt line (1st, allowing just 25.6% FG%). Their opponents have taken an average number of attempts but haven't made them. Because of some combination of the defense, luck and desperation shots at the end of games because of trailing.
Just getting home...finishing the 4th quarter on the DVR. Had to go see my dear Mother today...Congrats to OKC. WCF is freaking awesome and I can't believe we are there. And we are playing Dallas, not SA or LA. Pretty cool. I won't be able to calm down anytime soon.
Big time win, loved watching Russ play today, as well as KD, but JH might be my favorite player now. If he finds his 3pt shot with some consistency, we very well could beat Dallas.
Nick has been worth everything he's getting paid this year and then some. Does he continue to see a lot more minutes against Dallas? Serge just doesn't look right, hurt more than we thought.
Congrats to the team on the win.
Awesome win. Has anyone seen any Thunder playoff Gravatars like last year's Beat LA one?
By raw +/- the Bulls are the only finalist with a good performing starting lineup. Thunder 2nd best, Dallas back a ways in 3rd with the Heat's starting lineup about as bad performing as you can get. By Adjusted +/- estimates (which have a high estimated error) the Thunder starting lineup is improbably rated the best of the 4. They may need to do well with the starters because the Mavs have a half dozen very good lineups in the playoffs after the full 5 starters leaves the court.
Welp. Good game, Daily Thunder.
Just got back from the game. What an afternoon. Gotta say though, I'm gonna start bringing earplugs to these games. Seriously, I my ears are seriously hurting at this point. Guess I can blame James and Kevin for that. Eveything in the 3d and fourth they hit a big three the crowd exploded.
This is a short but timely article on experience vs youth
http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/05/youth-vs-experience-in-nba-playoffs-who.html
justin :
C_Dub :
Ford, Legler, Palmer, Sheridan all taking OKC in 6-7 games.
We’re doomed.
Remember, though we were picked to win this Grizzlies series too, so perhaps not
basketball-reference's blog has a post that gives the Mavs a 60/40 edge from some stat analysis. http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=9448
But how you do the analysis could of course affect the exact outcome.
@justin
Yeah, relative age would be good, perhaps better.
What a great game! So excited for Tuesday! On to Dallas!
bostonkid :
What a great series. Not even ESPN can ignore what this team is doing now!
haha, I hope not
C_Dub :
Ford, Legler, Palmer, Sheridan all taking OKC in 6-7 games.
We're doomed.
What a great series. Not even ESPN can ignore what this team is doing now!
1980 Lakers, 81 Celtics, 91 Bulls and 03 Spurs basically had 5 guys in their 20s, 3 in their 30s in their top 8 men.
Thunder go into the series with Dallas with 8 of 9 in their 20s, Mavs 6 of 9 in their 30s.
Ford, Legler, Palmer, Sheridan all taking OKC in 6-7 games.
First Bird-Celtics title was when Bird was 24 and McHale was 23. First Magic-Lakers title was when he was 20.
Average team age by minutes played would be different than simple average of full rosters.
I think age should be evaluated relative to league average. League average age is lower now. Some of those Boston teams were probably younger than OKC relative to league average.
@Crow
They might be the youngest in the conference finals, I just don't have all the data. Probably more likely top 1-3 than lower.
The youngest to win a title include the first Jordan Bulls, the Sonics title team, surprising the 2003 Spurs and some of the dream team 80s Lakers and Celtics who were legends even when fairly young.
Umm Thabo played 15 minutes and was -5. Just sayin
Man I'm so happy right now. Kd and russ had great games, harden grew up today and I'm now convinced that if u look in the dictionary for hustle u will find a picture of nick collison, proving once again his value isn't shown on the stat sheet
Crow :@Joe@justin
Time flys.
Good to re-live some things.
So true man.
Perk rubbing off a bit?
http://yfrog.com/gzk3bdp
@Crow
thanks
Bring it on Dallas!
Its odd how few posts we have today, almost half as much as normal. Nerves responsible?
Transition points will be key vs Dallas imo. Need to get running on the fast break. Tire em out
@Joe
@justin
Time flys.
Good to re-live some things.
I just Thundered Up everywhere
A great series, up-and-down. Really, really impressed how our guys responded from adversity in games 4 and 5, then how they responded after game 6. WE WANT DALLAS!!!!! THUNDER UP!!!!
Amazing KD started out 2-9 and finished with over 50% shooting
shiki :
Are thunder the youngest team which play WCF or ECF?
Not sure at the moment. They are on the young side. Probably in the youngest 5-10 all-time.
C_Dub :
Lefty :
Remember when Kendrick Perkins hit a jump shot?
You knew we were gonna win after that.
This!!
justin :
First WCF for me since 1996. Fifteen years. Really excited.
I'm with ya there man.
Was At The Game!!! WE WANT DALLAS!!!! WE WANT DALLAS!!!!
Brooks has to take this game film and show it over and over. KD, you see what happens when you move off the ball? Russ you see what happens when you trust harden? Nothing but good things. Keep doing them. I would just fast forward through the plays were perk and Thabo touch the ball though.
Amazing we had 11 blocks and Ibaka only had 1
Was Nazr just hustlin us? He played really well these last 3-4 games
Lefty :
Remember when Kendrick Perkins hit a jump shot?
You knew we were gonna win after that.
Remember when Kendrick Perkins hit a jump shot?