Joe Murphy/NBAE/Getty Images
If I approached you in October and gave you a take-it-or-leave-it proposition that the the Thunder’s path to the Western Conference finals was a best-of-three series with home-court advantage against the Grizzlies and a best-of-seven without home-court advantage against the Mavericks, you’d take it, right?
Yes. A thousand times yes. And that’s why it would be a shame if the Thunder blew its golden opportunity to play for the conference championship, and perhaps even the NBA title.
Who would have thought that the playoff path for any Western Conference title champ would be clear of the Lakers and Spurs? That’s not the case for the Grizzlies or the Mavs, who vanquished the only teams with championship pedigrees on this side of the NBA bracket. Only the Thunder can boast a path that clear to the finals. Even the Nuggets were denuded of star power before their postseason encounter with OKC.
There is no disrespect intended here to Dallas or Memphis. Both are excellent teams — as would be expected at this stage of the playoffs. The absence of the Lakers and Spurs from the Thunder’s playoff schedule doesn’t mean anything will come easy. But how often will the Thunder be able to advance to the Finals without facing a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the West, even if OKC attains one of those seeds in a future season? As Berry Tramel pointed out in his blog post today, a conference finals series rarely lacks both of the top two seeds. The Thunder’s easiest (on paper) road to the title round could very well have come now, before most expected the team’s prime championship window would open.
Oklahoma City finds itself with momentum in a 2-2 series, which seemed unlikely as recently as about two dozen different times during Monday’s marathon Game 4. It feels thisclose to what could have been a 3-1 hole, but it could have been a 3-1 lead if Game 3 played out differently. All things considered, the Thunder is pretty darn lucky to be where it is. If it’s going to be tied 2-2, you want the momentum.
Being a Thunder fan today probably just feels better than being a Bulls fan did Tuesday before Chicago’s home game against the Hawks in another 2-2 series with splits at each home venue — the Bulls came in on the heels of a loss instead of a win. Chicago won, and OKC needs a victory just as badly as they did. But not all 2-2 series are created equal, and the Thunder is fortunate to be the team with momentum headed into tonight’s pivotal game.
Don’t waste it, Thunder. Don’t let this golden opportunity slip away. The power teams may change with the Lakers, Mavericks and Spurs aging. But not only do all three teams still have plenty of talent for the next couple of seasons, but the Lakers and Mark Cuban-owned Mavs will be able to sign top talent whenever they want. And teams like the Grizzlies, Nuggets, Blazers and Clippers are knocking on the door to join the Thunder as the elite teams of the near- and long-term future. There may never again be a chance to advance all the way to the Finals by battling only teams that were underdogs in their first-round series.
The Grizzlies probably feel similarly. They topped the conference’s top seed in the first round and probably feel like they match up with the Mavs even better than they do with the Thunder in some ways. Nothing will come easily tonight or any other night for the rest of the playoffs. OKC has to prove it wants to seize the opportunity.
The pressure will mount almost as much with each win as it does with each loss at this point in the postseason, and at this point in a series. The FedEx Forum in Memphis will be rocking Friday regardless of the outcome of tonight’s game. As will the still-the-Ford Center on Sunday if (or when…) the series goes the full seven games. But the pressure, though heavy, might get only heavier in future seasons when expectations weigh even more. This may not be a “must win now” season for the young and improving Thunder, but it may one day prove to be a “wish they would have won then” season when tougher postseason matchups mark the later rounds.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Yeah, I actually am headed out to Baltimore!
@MisterE
Awesome! Although I assumed as much, glad to know Thunder Nation will be around wherever I go! I was definitely planning on trying to make it to a Wiz game when they played OKC next year.
@Crow
In the playoffs games won, Westbrook still used more scoring possessions than Durant in 4 of the 6 wins but his dominance was only 40% of what his possession dominance was in the 3 losses.
I think tonight's game will come down to fouls, bench scoring and coaching. In game 3, we had the foul call advantage. In game 4, it was you guys all the way until the 4th and into overtime when it evened up. The turning point of that game was actually in before half time, when we had OJ, Arthur, Allen and Conley all with 3 fouls a piece and had to give minutes to normally lesser-used players (Vazquez, Ish Smith?). That, along with some impressive defense and transition buckets, helped you guys go from 18 down to 4 down at the half. It will be interesting to see how Hollins counters the Thunder's "small ball" rotation now that he knows it might be coming.
@AllHeartGritGrind
Cool. The playoff games in Memphis and the crowds enthusiasm seemed unaffected by the troubles, which I took as good news. (mood outside the stadium seemed good, etc)
Good luck out there.
When Russell uses 5+ more possessions than Durant the team is 13-8 or 62% win. When KD uses 5+ more than Russ the team is 18-7 or 72% win. When they are within 5 of each other they are 26-19 or 58% win.
Other things probably matter more than who takes the most shots. Like whether one or both is hot or they have offensive help or if the defense is good or not.
Smokey :@AllHeartGritGrind
Are you living in Memphis? If so, how’s your situation there (concerning the flooding)?
Thanks for the concern. Yes, I'm here and the flooding has peaked and should slowly go back down now. Most of the city is not affected at all, since we are on a bluff, but some of downtown, north memphis and even some spots on the Wolf River (connected to the Miss. river) have seen some flooding. overall though, we dodged a big bullet.
Those 3 playoff losses represent 3 of the top 10 most dominant Westbrook scoring possessions used over Durant games of the entire season. The team record in those games is 6-4.
james1 :
Stat geeks, I just heard on the radio that the Thunder is 17-4 this year when RW takes more shots than KD. Do any of your stat sites show that stat? Thanks
I heard 14-5 regular season. 18-7 overall, which it just about 1 win more than the team's overall win% would produce.
That looks fine but... the 3 playoff losses all had Westbrook using more possessions directly (just shots, trips to the line and turnovers and not counting assists) than Durant, an extremely high average of 11 more per game.
@Landstander
we have an incredibly bad record in early/sunday games
@Patrick James
I would certainly have taken that playoff setup at the beginning of the season. Right before the playoffs started, I would've wanted to swap Memphis for LA. They were the scariest team to me going into the playoffs, and I see no reason to revise my opinion now.
@Smokey
Early games are why I was afraid OKC would lose game 3. Game 1 was early too, wasn't it? What about the loss to Denver...was that early or late?
Sucks that the KFOR story had no mention of DT though...
http://www.kfor.com/sports/kfor-news-homegrown-tshirt-shop-supports-home-team-story,0,651241.story
@j-mo
I have a problem with early games, actually. I always feel uncomfortable when my team is playing around noon. Too early to be focused.
Smokey :@MisterE
What’s up Baltimore?!!
Just counting down the hours (and sneaking peaks at DT) at work until I go home and get ready to watch the game !
@j-mo
I hate it. I'm hoping its game 1 not game 7
@j-mo
yeah screw sunday... lol. seriously though i'm with you.
Am I the only one that is superstituous about playing on Sunday? We've not been great on Sunday's this year.
@MisterE
What's up Baltimore?!!
Smokey :But it sounds like they were expecting more. Do they expect that of Thabo by now?
That made sense before I typed it.
@Surreal
Hey Surreal. Thunder fan in Baltimore here. Glad to have another Thunder fan coming to the area. I have been to the Thunder@Wizards games the last 2 years. We do have a presence here.
and Patrick-excellent article by the way. The perspective that squandering what is a very competitive, but still favorable route to the Finals, is a tragedy does help a lot to add some intensity (as if we needed more) to the series. I also agree that we've had a great season, and can leave heads high if we lose to a tough Grizz. However, I don't think that's acceptable at this point. Ready to win.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
Well, it's possible that it was Harden and that was the whole reason he was taken out in the first place... Likely it was both of them.
But it sounds like they were expecting more. Do they expect that of Thabo by now?
@Sammy
Do you even have to ask?
@Sammy
Stuff that's supposed to be happening on the weak side, but wasn't.. Interesting
@AllHeartGritGrind
Are you living in Memphis? If so, how's your situation there (concerning the flooding)?
From Hollinger's chat:
As for Brooks, the Thunder all told me that in Game 3 there was stuff that was supposed to be happening on the weak side and just wasn't. And I'll add that when only two players can score, the offense is going to seem predictable. It's why Harden is so important for them.
Thabo?
james1 :
Stat geeks, I just heard on the radio that the Thunder is 17-4 this year when RW takes more shots than KD. Do any of your stat sites show that stat? Thanks
I saw on another board, a poster said he went through all of the game logs and that the thunder were 14-5 in the regular season and 4-2 in the playoffs when they both played and RW had more FGAs. Take that for what its worth.
I think that J.J. Barea wants no part of Russell in the WCF. Check this out...
http://sports.espn.go.com/dallas/nba/news/story?id=6527457
There were supposed to be 3 game 7s on Sunday, with the Mia/Bos tentative Game 7 on the Monday. If Chi and Atl go 7, they'll prob get the 12 pm slot, while we get 230.
If our series ends in 6, Game 1 of the WCF would be Sun on ABC, otherwise, it would start Tues. The ECF would be the days the WCF isn't playing
that being said I'll be surprised if we lose. Go Thunder!!!
I'm antsy already for tonight's game. and recent history has shown that even if we develop a 30 point first half lead we are just as likely to lose in OT. good ness.
Very well-written take on Game 5, I'll have to say. Pressure is on for both squads. The Memphis Floods vs. the OKC Thunder. Battle of the storms.
@Loud City Jimmy@DarnellMayberry
Darnell Mayberry
If necessary, Game 7 b/ween the Thunder & Grizzlies will be at 2:30 on ABC. If OKC wins in 6, Game 1 of Thunder-Mavs is 2:30 on ABC
Patrick James :@Ozarkhick
I’m not getting to worked up about that stat. It’s also about a 75 percent chance the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 series goes on to win, and a 75 percent chance the team with home court in a 2-2 series goes on to win. So this series will already wind up in the 25 percent of one of those.
I'm not sure why, but that was hilarious.
Fellas...are we solid on the 2:30 Sunday tip for game 7? All the websites still show it TBD.
Ozarkhick :
Not to make anybody too nervous, but when a series is tied 2-2, the team that wins game 5 takes the series 78% of the time. Funny how every game seems like a “must win” lately.
Not a scary stat. We ve been playing better overall then Memphis has.
@Ozarkhick@Patrick
James
*too
@Ozarkhick
I'm not getting to worked up about that stat. It's also about a 75 percent chance the winner of Game 3 in a 1-1 series goes on to win, and a 75 percent chance the team with home court in a 2-2 series goes on to win. So this series will already wind up in the 25 percent of one of those.
@Surreal
Howdy!
Enjoy Maryland. Good folks there. Plus, they have the coolest state flag.
Not to make anybody too nervous, but when a series is tied 2-2, the team that wins game 5 takes the series 78% of the time. Funny how every game seems like a "must win" lately.
Stormy weather in OKC! Can you hear the Thunder?
@Surreal
Welcome! You aren't headed to Baltimore by any chance are you?
Also, I don't know about a sooner blogs. I spent the better part of the last several years thinking that I was the only one who knew how to work the Internet.
Twistdov :@okc
baby
Love it or hate it, they’re one and the same.
Take the bad with the good
well this is pretty sweet:
http://dimemag.com/2011/05/dime-64-kevin-durant-russell-westbrook-are-generation-now/
Hey all .. long time reader first time poster. Oklahoma born and bred - life long sports fan in general, but big time Sooner fan having gone to OU, and as of the last few years, diehard OKC Thunder fan as well. After 26 years in the state, I'll be leaving for Maryland for residency this summer, so figured now was as good a time as any to introduce myself on the board, as I figure I'll actually be more active online when physically separated from other fans. Royce (and Patrick) do an amazing job with the write ups for the site, and this has become my PRIMARY resource for all things Thunder related. But what I think additionally keeps me coming back to it is the great active community of commentators. While I don't always agree with everything said and think many of you are way too much of Debbie Downers (not to mention names haha), I love the debate and intellectual sports related convos started (for the most part). I also find myself gaining new insight and understanding from various perspectives, including an intro to Advanced Stats. So thank you all for that and I look forward to becoming part of the community! THUNDER UP!!!
p.s. I think I may be at fault for that whole Vasquez stepping up last game thing .. see, while I was in Maryland last week looking for a place to live, I was staying with relatives who lived in Rockville. So, of course I made a little trip to Montrose Christian School to get a pic .. I figured that 'pilgrimage' would only help KD, but I should have known better haha.
p.p.s. A little off topic, but for those Sooners fans out there, what do you think would be a comparable OU blog in terms of quality and activity to Daily Thunder? Like I said, being out of the state and away from fans to interact with, I feel like I'll be turning to online resources more and more. Thanks!
PNT :@james1 Does that stat include the games that Durant didn’t play?
Haha, I have no idea. It was just a caller in to Mark Rogers radio show and he didn't seem like he really knew what he was talking about.
Ok, nevermind then, I didn't know it was published already. It wasn't as of last night.
@doof, @PNT
You'll get a firm time when Miami wrapps up their series. They get the eastern conference timeslot, and we get the western, unless that series closes, then we get an earlier timeslot.
gr8ball83 :@PNT2:30 pm on ABC per Darnell
Woo Hoo! No marathon, and no driving home after mignight!