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What went wrong those last seven minutes

by Royce Young on May 8, 2011 at 3:44 pm 125 Comments

You know how some TV shows get disclaimers on them? Well, this post needs one too. This post may not be suitable for emotional Thunder fans still not over yesterday’s loss. Reader discretion is advised.

Following the Thunder’s incredible fourth quarter meltdown in Game 3 which gave away a big swing game, a lot of focus was on Russell Westbrook and his now infamous “hero mode.” I saw it differently. I didn’t think Westbrook had a whole lot to do with it. I saw it more as a product of bad team offense, no James Harden and predictable, elementary offensive sets. Westbrook was a part of it, but it’s not on him exclusively.

I don’t think me just saying it convinced everyone — not even myself necessarily — so I re-watched the Thunder’s fourth quarter again, specifically those last seven minutes. The video of every Thunder offensive possession the last seven minutes of the game is above. If you’re one of the many pinning this on Westbrook, you’re probably going to see what you want to see and I’m not going to change your mind. But going through it, I just don’t see how Westbrook went “hero” or tried to subvert Durant here.

Possession 1, 7:13
OKC runs its simple little Durant-Westbrook screen-and-roll/screen-and-post play. Durant is battling Tony Allen on the wing and Westbrook intends to get him the ball. KD is most likely fouled as Allen employs the “hugholdgrabpull” move and Westbrook gets hit with a turnover.

Possession 2, 6:32
A good, clean open look for Westbrook from a spot he’s proven he can hit from. If you truly have a problem with Westbrook taking this shot, then you’ll just have to sit him down. I’d actually be throwing and yelling at him if he didn’t take that shot. It was a rhythm jumper that was open. Yes, there were 16 seconds on the shot clock when he took it. But he’s a good scorer and capable shooter from there. Just didn’t make it.

Possession 3, 5:45
Durant tries to post on Allen on the right win. Westbrook can’t give him the ball because Zach Randolph is shading to double KD on the catch. So Russ does the correct thing and reverses it to James Harden with 10 on the shot clock. Harden probably should’ve called for a pick-and-roll, but gives it back to Westbrook. With only a few ticks on the shot clock, Westbrook is forced to make a play and he knocks down a little midrange jumper.

Possession 4, 4:54
OKC runs that high post isolation thing for KD, but he never gets free. Westbrook is clearly trying to get it to him, but there’s no room for it. Look at the other three guys though. Standing. Not moving. Not screening anyone. And after KD doesn’t get it, he just remains well behind the 3-point line. Westbrook does a nice job getting into the paint and to the rim. He misses a somewhat difficult layup.

Possession 5, 4:31
After a nice steal, Westbrook looks up court and finds Durant on the fly. KD attacks, is likely fouled but the ball is knocked out, off Memphis.

Possession 6, 4:24
Ball is thrown in to Durant, he gives it to Ibaka who gives it to Westbrook. Nobody is moving, nobody is screening. KD is standing on the wing. This is the one time you actually see Westbrook wave Durant off, but I assume it’s just that Russ doesn’t want to run the screen-and-pop thing. Shot clock grinds down, Westbrook takes a contested jumper.

Possession 7, 3:40
I think this possession illustrates my frustration with the entire offense more than anything. There’s good action off the ball to start, but then it dissolves into a two-man game with KD and Westbrook again. Westbrook drives and kicks to Thabo — who should be James Harden — who gives it back to Durant who gives it back to Thabo — who should be James Harden — who is forced into an ugly 3-point attempt.

Possession 8, 3:14
A quick 3-point attempt for Durant. It’s contested, but I don’t entirely hate the shot. However, that’s the only type of shot KD took in these last few minutes. Nothing from midrange. Nothing going to the hole. Everything was outside.

Possession 9, 2:35
It looked like the Thunder were running a real set here for a second. Except Westbrook lost the ball in the paint. He wasn’t out of control, wasn’t doing something selfishly. I think he was actually trying to slip it to KD who made a baseline cut.

Possession 10, 2:17
Another 3 attempt from KD. Good screen from Perk, good on time pass from Westbrook. KD airballs, but it’s because he was very clearly fouled on the shot. The reason I say so is because it wasn’t blocked and there’s no way KD comes up four feet short on an open jumper like that without a reason for it.

Possession 11, 1:42
I would say this is Westbrook’s worst and maybe only bad shot during this stretch. It came with 14 on the shot clock, without a single pass and the most important part, he missed it. It’s probably not a bad look in the second quarter, but here he probably should’ve went elsewhere. Really though, the biggest problem is that he stopped to pull up. I thought he could’ve went all the way to the rim here.

Possession 12, 1:06
Westbrook does exactly what we want to see. He drives hard, collapses the defense around him and kicks out to an open Serge Ibaka. But for whatever reason, Ibaka turns down the shot. Now Westbrook has to come and get the ball again with just nine on the shot clock. It’s up to him to make something happen and he draws a shooting foul and knocks down both free throws.

Possession 13, 0:14
OKC’s chance to win the game despite all of this. It’s the high post iso play for Durant who catches the ball with four on the shot clock. Tough fadeaway shot for KD and he misses. A question here though: Honestly, do you think Russell Westbrook could’ve gotten himself a better look than that in that situation? I absolutely think so. Now, I’ve always said KD has to be the guy taking that shot and I have no problem with that here. And if Westbrook takes it and misses, whoa boy, we’d be hearing a lot more about it.

But still, that’s what’s at the heart of all this. Westbrook can and does get himself good looks. He searches for the first option and once it wasn’t there, he becomes the next in line to do something.

Again, the issue here is the entire offense in general. One or two passes, one or two options. That’s not the way to beat a team playing the kind of defense Memphis was. You’ve got to keep moving the ball, keeping spacing well, keep cutting and screening. The Thunder were killing the clock trying to set up isolation for Durant and as a result, they backed themselves into a corner offensively.

Some will still see this as Westbrook’s fault. I’ve had countless people say to me, “That’s the point guards job though! He’s got to get everyone moving. It’s his responsibility to make the offense work.” Most say that because “point guard” is attached to Westbrook’s name, but he can make his teammates move. He can’t make them set screens. He can’t make them move the ball.

If you’re saying things like “Westbrook isn’t a point guard, Eric Maynor is a better pure point guard,” then I’m not sure I can convince you of anything. If your mind is made up with what you think a point guard’s job is on any team regardless of the situation, then forget it. But reality is, if Maynor is in there instead of Westbrook, OKC runs the same futile offense except this time it’s Maynor and not Westbrook trying to make something happen with six on the 24. Now what would you rather have?

This halfcourt execution has been a challenge for the Thunder all year. It’s on all five guys and the coaches for not developing an answer. But watch those possessions over and over again. I think at some point your eyes will tell you that Russell Westbrook isn’t the man to blame for it. At least that’s the hope.

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Grolgar
Grolgar 5pts

@gr8ball83

In the Hawks series Rose has shot 27, 27, 27, and 32 times if I remember right... Pretty ridiculous.

gr8ball83
gr8ball83 5pts

@Mark!
haha, they are pretty much the same player, except Russ has only taken 30 shots that one game, and rose seems to be between 25-30 a game almost every game. Rose's shooting percentages in the playoffs are TERRIBLE.

Grolgar
Grolgar 5pts

Charles Barkely has been amazingly spot on on all of his analysis in these playoffs IMHO. He might have the best feel for the game of anyone in the media... And he is hilarious.

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

@gr8ball83

Whoops, my Westbrook bias made me see Russ and not Rose so I jumped in to defend my boy. I don't care about Rose so I can't speak on that topic :P

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

@DavyTheWise

Perhaps. Just my opinion.

Mark!
Mark! 5pts

@gr8ball83

I defend him. I don't want the PG taking that many shots, but I don't see how he had much choice. KD was either passive or unable to separate from a player he supposedly has half a foot and 20 lbs on. Harden, Thabo and Ibaka all got touches and opted to give the ball back to Russ instead of take an active role in the team's win or loss.

I want something better, and Russ shares in the blame but he is far from the only culpable party IMO. I'm confused by the Russ hate. Do those of you who think Russ carries the lion's share of the blame think he's a selfish egomaniac? I don't have that impression of him at all.

gr8ball83
gr8ball83 5pts

@DavyTheWise
Nah, don't worry about it guys. We're winning tonight. I'd like to win 3 straight and finish it off in 6, but I'll take a win in 7

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

@gr8ball83

Yep. I think chuck is right the point guard should know when "My shots aren't falling I got get the others involved"

DavyTheWise
DavyTheWise 5pts

@Grolgar
I'm feeling similar. Its probably one of those hands over the eyes looking between the fingers kind of games...

DavyTheWise
DavyTheWise 5pts

Thunderman :
Durant subtly called out Russ on sports blitz last night
Kevin “one pass shot, no pass shot almost the whole fourth quarter, we can’t have it. That’s on me, that’s on the point guards…..”
I think he was being gracious by including himself.

Some of it was on him for not getting open. I think he was being serious.

Grolgar
Grolgar 5pts

Can't wait for tonight. We can do this, but I'm terrified nonetheless.

Grolgar
Grolgar 5pts

casualdanimal :Am I a fair weather fan if I don’t watch the game tonight because I am afraid of what it might do to my health if we lose?

Yes. A real fan doesn't miss season-deciding games. Kind of the point of being a fan.

gr8ball83
gr8ball83 5pts

Anybody else hear the guys on TNT defending Rose for shooting 12-32 in their loss? A couple were saying it was ridiculous and that a point guard should never take 30+ shots unless they're making a high percent, but Chris Webber and I think someone else were defending him. Pretty ridiculous

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

Durant subtly called out Russ on sports blitz last night

Kevin "one pass shot, no pass shot almost the whole fourth quarter, we can't have it. That's on me, that's on the point guards....."

I think he was being gracious by including himself.

jzwink
jzwink 5pts

casualdanimal :Am I a fair weather fan if I don’t watch the game tonight because I am afraid of what it might do to my health if we lose?

I have felt ROTTEN (physically) since our lost. Could be allergies...might be Thunderitis.

Skeletor
Skeletor 5pts

@casualdanimal

Shoot, I'm tempted to take my wife to a movie tonight instead, just so I can come home and watch it on the DVR if we won or just ignore it if we lost.

casualdanimal
casualdanimal 5pts

Am I a fair weather fan if I don't watch the game tonight because I am afraid of what it might do to my health if we lose?

ChilamBilam12
ChilamBilam12 5pts

It actually lines up much better for us to take game 4, and head back to OKC with momentum and a tied series coming off of a win.. had we managed the win in game 3, Memphis would have come out playing as a very desperate team Monday and most likely would have taken it and the momentum into our arena for game 5.. Durant played his worst game of the playoffs Saturday and we still had to execute some of the worst offense in recent memory to give it away.. He and the Thunder should bounce back strong, and with a little luck pick up a win by a significant margin Monday.. and 10+ point victory would really take a lot of the wind out of the Grizzlies sails knowing they have to come back to the ThunderDome

Daniel Hawaii
Daniel Hawaii 5pts

I didn't watch the video because like others said, I didn't want to re-live that pain. But I did like the play-by-play breakdown.

I never really thought it was all Westbrook's fault. This team just doesn't have an offensive game plan down the stretch of games and I think that falls on the coaching staff. Obviously, personnel is also an issue. When only 2.5 out of 5 players are capable of scoring, it's a problem (Ibaka counts for 0.5 as someone else said).

What worries me about Game 4 is that it always seems like the home team wins the 2nd game of a homestand in the playoffs. Think about it. We've played best in both Game 2s so far. Denver beat us in Game 4. Atlanta just beat Chicago in Game 4.

The home team seems to always have jitters in their first home game and that's the one that the road team needs to steal. But it seems like the home team usually feels more loose and plays its best in the 2nd game.

I hope this isn't the case on Monday.

Crow
Crow 5pts

You only get 2 guys scoring over 24 pts per game in the playoffs if they take or they are instructed to take quite high usages.

Only Miami also has 2 over 24 points in this playoffs.

Nobody else with even 2 over 20 points. 2 others are close to that though.

Over the 6 playoffs the title winner has either had 2 over 20 points and 2 more over 10 pts or been real close to that.

The Thunder have that set up but then the fall off after those 4 is bigger than normal.

There are different ways to do things but I thought it was worth pursuing the patterns and seeing how the Thunder were similar and different from them.

Brian
Brian 5pts

@ChilamBilam12
I agree.

Weird to say it, but we sometimes need to lose to wake up.
If we don't wake up we will keep losing.
The playoff are a cruel but perfect place for our young team to experience this now.

ChilamBilam12
ChilamBilam12 5pts

how many of those teams contained the leagues leading scorer averaging 28 ppg, and a point guard averaging 24 ppg?.. not that the usage percentages are by any means ideal, but they less relevant when 2 athletes can account for such a large amount of the teams total offensive output

Crow
Crow 5pts

Only 1 team has won a title in 20 years with 2 20+ minutes guys under 11% usage. This season a few teams are trying it with 2 but nobody else is trying it with 3.

ChilamBilam12
ChilamBilam12 5pts

I'm not certain exactly why.. but i feel more confident about tomorrow night's game then i have about any in this series thus far.. i think the Thunder finally got kicked in the mouth hard enough to see some core issues that really need to be fixed.. we have a fantastic knack for bouncing back, and KD is prepped to absolutely go off after such a depressing second half showing Saturday.. i love our boys, and i know what they can do.. its time to for them to step up and prove it to the world tomorrow.. i'll say it now, Thunder by 13.. and i really feel that it could be much much better then that

Crow
Crow 5pts

There are different ways to do it, but the Mavs have a 1-2 punch (with the second guy clearly #2) and a total of 4 guys who play over 20 minutes per game over 18% usage and a fifth who barely misses on the minutes cutoff. They have just one under 11% usage who plays 20+ minutes though there is another who just misses on the required minutes.

If you cut back Westbrook's shooting & usage, Harden and Ibaka got a little higher on usage, you add another 18+% usage guy to the rotation in place of one of the 3 current low usage guys and you cut back on the minutes of a 2nd of the low usage guys a little, you could have the same design as the Mavs. Not that they are necessarily the best or only model but this would be one strategy if you don't achieve what was desired with the current distribution of usage and defensive players. Or you could do some but not all of this.

Crow
Crow 5pts

@walrusmuse

Thanks.

The playoff match-ups have aggravated the fouls committed but they were also 3rd highest in fouls committed per game in the regular season, creeping generally up over the months and reaching their highest level in April after Perkins was integrated. This per game ranking was aggravated by high pace and low turnovers and average defensive rebounding in the regular season did not offset any of those affects.

walrusmuse
walrusmuse 5pts

@crow and we also have Perk who both has a lot of profiling going his way, and he earns it a lot of the time. not all of the time, but a lot.

walrusmuse
walrusmuse 5pts

@Crow
it could be totally us, but i also wonder if our high foul count is due to playing two teams in a row who have a large part of their offense being built around bigs-lots of ticky tack in the paint, and lots of dumping it in the paint and letting bigs be aggressive (both Nene and Randolph). Randolph gets calls especially.

walrusmuse
walrusmuse 5pts

@Crow
i love this breakdown by the way. It helps to cut through some of our emotional finger wagging, myself included, and begint o really give teeth to the argument that the defense for offense gamble of Thabo (and even Perk I hate to say) might not be getting it done when combined with our lack of play execution/moving off the ball.

RyanFreeman
RyanFreeman 5pts

Still not sure why everyone questions putting in Thabo over Harden. Harden still hasn't proven he can do anything on the road in the playoffs. Thabo was a team high +12, and only had 3 less points than Harden, who was a team worst -20, until Harden hit that late game 3. Harden has tons of potential, but is frustrating with his lack of consistency. You know what you're going to get with Thabo, not so much with James

Brian
Brian 5pts

Matt32 :

Thomas :
Webber is becoming the biggest Rose fan in the national media. How is he saying the Bulls have no one else to score when Deng, Boozer, Korver and Noah are out there? All those guys are capable of knocking down shots.

Yup, its not like he has one other scorer out there with people like…I donno….Perkins, Sefolosha and Ibaka.

Yep, the coaches have irrationally put the scoring burden 100% on Durant and Westbrook when they are on the floor. This is WHY the starting unit struggles to score at times.

If you have been watching the playoffs, two contrasting styles of offense emerge.
1. Systematically with lots of options (ie the Mavs vs. the lakers)
2. Forced ISOs, tough shot after tough shot few options (ie the Bulls vs. the Hawks)

There were times I was watching the Mavs dismantle the Lakers I was wondering why we couldn't have been that team.

1. We have a superstar like Dirk (Durant)
2. We have several 3 point shooters (Harden, Durant, Cook, Maynor and I believe they could be consistent if they get OPEN LOOKS)
3. We have a front court to slow the Lakers front down.
4. We have a point guard to terrorize (Westbrook)

BUT, the Thunder lack a plan to put it together.

Crow
Crow 5pts

The only team in the last 10 years to win a title with a guy over 20 minutes and a usage below 11% was the Spurs multiple times (mostly Bowen) but only once with 2 such guys (2007 with Bowen and Horry). In the 90s the only one who did it at all was Chicago twice with Rodman.

The only way you can really justify a guy under 11% usage is if he helps give you a very good or great defense. If you have 3 such guys under 11% usage and the defense is just 10th best in the playoffs, it seems to me that the design and / or the performance are way off.

Crow
Crow 5pts

The Thunder have 3 guys who play 20+ minutes with a playoff usage under 11%. All the rest of the playoff teams only had 5 total and no one had 2.

Crow
Crow 5pts

I guess over the last 3 seasons the average for guys over 21% usage on conference finalist was only about 2.3. Diversity of offense may be a strength but maybe a different cut would get at it better.

Perhaps # over 18% usage in the playoffs? Over the last 3 playoffs the average for this is about 3.5. This year among the teams still alive only Chicago and OKC are at 2 while the others still alive average nearly 4 and the Griz lead with 5.

For the Thunder, Harden is at about 17% usage, Ibaka 16%. An increase by a few % on usage and that alone wouldn't seem to make a big difference but nonetheless the Thunder distribution of usage is in the minority of those still alive and maybe it has more indirect impacts.

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

Man I had iPad keyboard too many typos!

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

I meant won against us.

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

Chuck said it "Dallas is praying for Oklahoma City Thunder"

I agree they lost the series to Memphis (Randolph killed em) and their series against us.

They seem to be streaky we coulees surprise them.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Of the 8 semi-finalists 2 teams had 4 guys who played 20+ minutes per game and a usage above 21% in the regular season- Dallas and Memphis. Atlanta and Miami had 3. Lakers, Thunder, Celtics and Chicago just had 2. Will any team with just 2 make the conference finals? Diversity of offense can be a strength.

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

Go Hawks Go! Go Hawks Go!

Crow
Crow 5pts

Harden has gone from a shot every 3 minutes in the regular season to one every 4 for the second straight year. For a combination of reasons probably.

Counting FTs, Westbrook has gone from shooting something every 2 minutes in 5 seconds of game clock last regular season to every 1 minute 46 seconds last playoffs to 1 minute and 41 seconds this regular season and now he shoots something every 1 minute and 29 seconds. He shoots about 30% quicker than he did barely more than a year ago.

Smokey
Smokey 5pts

DRose 34 pts on 32 shots (including 9 pts off 11 FT).. Just sayin'

Matt32
Matt32 5pts

Thomas :
Webber is becoming the biggest Rose fan in the national media. How is he saying the Bulls have no one else to score when Deng, Boozer, Korver and Noah are out there? All those guys are capable of knocking down shots.

Yup, its not like he has one other scorer out there with people like...I donno....Perkins, Sefolosha and Ibaka.

Thomas
Thomas 5pts

Webber is becoming the biggest Rose fan in the national media. How is he saying the Bulls have no one else to score when Deng, Boozer, Korver and Noah are out there? All those guys are capable of knocking down shots.

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

Chris Webber is about to snap

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

Daniel :
sportsguy33 Bill Simmons
One of the many lessons of the 2011 Playoffs: you ain’t winning when your point guard shoots 30+ times.
10 minutes ago

Yes, finally.

SOOOO glad Charles is holding everyone to account

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

CHARLES JUST SAID IT!!!! HE jsut called out Rose for shooting 32 times, and said "We" criticized Russ for it

Daniel
Daniel 5pts

sportsguy33 Bill Simmons
One of the many lessons of the 2011 Playoffs: you ain't winning when your point guard shoots 30+ times.
10 minutes ago

Thomas
Thomas 5pts

I'm thinking Atlanta probably felt okay about losing Game 3 considering the buzz saw they ran into in that one. Gotta think Rose won't do that every game and game 4 demonstrated that point.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Thunder are fouling too much. They have a confortable lead over everybody on that.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Thunder 4th highest in team turnovers per game in the playoffs. Thunder is the only team still active with more than 1 guy who plays 25+ minutes with a turnover above 14% and they have 3 (Westbrook, Perkins and Harden). Westbrook second on TOs per game only to Dwight Howard with Rose right behind him.

Trackbacks

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