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Wednesday Bolts – 6.1.11

by Royce Young on June 1, 2011 at 9:30 am 84 Comments

Something I can not get behind: KD’s dunk over Brendan Haywood was not the top dunk of the conference finals.

Does the age limit work for the NBA? Eamonn Brennen of ESPN.com looks: “Maybe the one-and-done rule has helped players develop into elite NBA talents. It didn’t seem to hurt Derrick Rose or Kevin Durant, the reigning NBA MVP and NBA scoring champion, respectively, both of whom happen to be 22 years old. But it’s just as easy to say that duo would have been successful no matter what path they took to the NBA. It’s also fair to say both players — like Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, Tyson Chandler, Andre Iguodala and a host of other NBA stars that made major leaps this season — were just as affected by their time on Team USA in the summer of 2010. (This seems to be the common consensus in NBA circles, at least.)”

Eric Freeman of BDL on KD’s summer ambitions: “It is interesting, though, to realize that Durant has accomplished as much as he has while still being very much a work-in-progress. Washburn notes that Durant doesn’t really post up smaller opponents, but he also sometimes has a tough time getting open on the perimeter and doesn’t always effectively lose his man off good screens. That Durant has won two scoring titles with these issues is something of a marvel. It’s not hard to imagine him averaging 35 points per game at some point in his career. Plus, he’s committed to his craft, which suggests that these problems won’t remain for long. Somehow, Durant is nowhere near his prime.”

KD is looking to bulk up, Perk is looking to slim down. Problem solved.

Should the MVP be awarded after the playoffs?

Mark Jackson doesn’t hate you Thunder: “There’s no way in the world that we have anything against the Oklahoma City Thunder,” Jackson said. “… Our job is to speak the facts. The facts are that a couple of games in the series there were breakdowns, and they didn’t play as well as they could have played. They had a couple of games won, and they did not win them. But they had a great season, and they should be extremely proud.”

Perk donated a new sign to his old high school.

John Rohde writing on Nick Collison’s strange season: “What made Collison so valuable this year was his impeccable timing. Whenever the Thunder needed a presence — defensively, or on the offensive boards, or in the huddle — he would rarely disappoint. Collison had 42 steals and took 57 charges. James Harden was next on the team in charges taken with 12.”

You can’t help but wonder: Why didn’t the Mavs shoot like that against the Thunder? Better defense by the Heat, yes, but Barea missed a bunch in the lane, Peja missed open 3s and Terry couldn’t hit anything.

Clark Matthews of The Lost Ogle on OKC’s offseason: “Should Presti target Battier early in free agency, I think he would be easy to sign. Memphis is already stretched financially because of a fanbase that only shows up for the playoffs, and to get back to the playoffs they will have to open the checkbook to re-sign both Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol. With Rudy Gay returning from injury, Battier will not be a priority for them. Going on 33 years old, the competition for signing the glue guy swingman will not be teams with tons of cap space. Everyone making a play at him will be franchises looking for one more piece to win a championship as their window closes. Oklahoma City should have a major advantage with cap space and the ability to sell him on the opportunity to win for the rest of Battier’s career.”

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okc baby
okc baby 5pts

The Beard Knows :@ justin I’d say that Collison is what makes that play work but you’re right. They would be able to cheat off Thabo too much for it to be as consistently effective. I don’t know coaching assistants very well. Are they are any creative offensive assistants we might be able to plunder?

I been saying this. You could see flashes of potential in the starting lineup but they always reverted back to old ways. Thats a players and coaches problem

dragonbug
dragonbug 5pts

Sammy :
Daniel Plainview :WHo’s this Charles Jenkins everyone says they like? Is he in teh draf? Cant find nothing on him
He’s my new obsession and favorite prospect for us(leap frogging Reggie Jackson, Nolan Smith, Justin Harper, Goudelock, et al).http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Charles-Jenkins-6189/ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcO1N1MZycg

@ Sammy
wow he is very good. crafty and willing to get into the paint. Plus a fantastic 3 point shooter. he would be great coming off the bench. touche' sir.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Of course the Thunder want to have a long run like the 80s Celtics or Lakers or the more recent Spurs with most or all the same core guys.

Often title winners have to change some to get additional titles.

Some long relative successes never get past the final hurdle.

Among non-title winners who got to 50+ wins, they stay there about an average of 2.6 years. It is hard to take the final step or stretch it out a run. Some do it.
It is an interesting challenge.

Caleb
Caleb 5pts

I don't believe it will be all that entirely different... Granted yes it will be different but not by that much I don't think

The Beard Knows
The Beard Knows 5pts

@ Crow
With the impending contract issues we have two years, after that it's going to be a rather different team than the one currently constructed.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Today asked how many seasons did it take first time title-winning teams since 1990 with their essential star on board to get between a first round loss or less and that first title? The answer was shorter than I expected- just 1.4 seasons between those markers. So on average the progression was first round loss or less, then 1-2 seasons of something short of ultimate victory then win a title the next season.

If the Thunder are a title destined team with their essential stars on board and make a near average progression they would win the title by next season.
It can take longer of course but that would be an above average interval for title winners. At least in this short modern time clip. Several teams won the title the very first time they had the essential star and any essential co-star and then passed beyond the first round.

If they win a title next season, in his 5th season, Durant will achieve that a bit faster than average or average from a personal perspective of a title-winning main star.

This recent history would suggest that on average the Thunder is in their peak window right now. Of course the Thunder are younger than unusual so taking more time might be expected and not worrisome. But how much longer? It might be a bit more surprising if it was 3+ years away than 1-2 seasons away, if it going to happen. 3+ years away on top of this season would be longer than any other example in the time-period. Next season and the one after would seem to be showtime.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@ DXL
I disagree on Monroe. For one, he basically only played half the season as Kuester juggled a bunch of lineups trying to find anyone who gave a crap. Monroe was knocked for his defense, but when he got into the lineup he has incredibly quick hands that just frustrate the heck out of opposing big men (especially those without much of a handle). I think he could be an 18-10 guy with 2 steals per game. That's quite a player.

I don't think we could trade Ibaka for Monroe straight up, just that he's one of the few people in the last draft that I would. Detroit needs too much in every area for Ibaka to be their guy to build around. Monroe can be a contributor everywhere except the three point line.

DXL
DXL 5pts

In his 2011 NBA trade value column Bill Simmons had Serge at #37 while Monroe came in at #47. Both guys are basically untouchable but Serge gets the nod for being part of winning teams and improving so rapidly.

Monroe looks like a consistent contributor but he won't get much better than he is.

DXL
DXL 5pts

@justin
I don't think either OKC or Detroit would be willing to easily let go of Monroe or Ibaka. So there's no trade. But I do think Ibaka's got more trade value around the league than Monroe. They are both on rookie contracts (Serge's is a lot cheaper), but Ibaka's more proven, and his athleticism allows for a higher ceiling.

It's amusing that Monroe is Detroit's centerpiece for re-building while Ibaka is perhaps the 4th most important Thunder player.

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

I hope Felton doesnt head to Miami

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

@Sammy
Thank you, kind sir!

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

Daniel Plainview :WHo’s this Charles Jenkins everyone says they like? Is he in teh draf? Cant find nothing on him

He's my new obsession and favorite prospect for us(leap frogging Reggie Jackson, Nolan Smith, Justin Harper, Goudelock, et al).

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Charles-Jenkins-6189/
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pcO1N1MZycg

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

WHo's this Charles Jenkins everyone says they like? Is he in teh draf? Cant find nothing on him

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

@Sammy

Not only do I think Hardens about to evolve into one of the more dynamic players in the league, I think he is the perfect fit for our team. In two years there maybe only 2-3 Sg's in the league better than Harden while there will be 7-8 superior PF's in the league, meaning the FAm trading pool will be much larger.

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

justin :I’d still trade Serge for Josh Smith.
Id wait another year before I pulled the trigger on that one. Serge went through alot of changes in responsibility. I want to give him one more year before we start weighing in on trade scenarios, unless its for a top 5 pick in next years draft

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

Jimbo Slice :Am I the only one not really sold on Derrick Williams? Typically I have an all right feel for what players will be steals and busts, but I didn’t watch college ball anywhere near like I normally do this year. But something about Derrick Williams’ game says underachieving tweener moreso than oversized beastly 3 contrary to the popular consensus.

Nope, Ive been saying that ever since I saw him play in the Pac 10 Championship. I admit, im not teh Mel Kiper of Basketball recruiting, but something about his game just looks dead to me. I admit, I only watched him play one game and some highlights, but something rubs me wrong about him.

Jimbo Slice
Jimbo Slice 5pts

How ironic would it be to bring Turner, former coach of the Quad City Thunder to the OKC Thunder. I wouldn't call it too much of a stretch though unless he follows Adelman to his next destination.

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

Since we're not firing Brooks/hiring Adelman, can we at least poach Elston Turner for head assistant?

Sammy
Sammy 5pts

Serge and Harden's limitations were very different. Early on, Harden wasn't attacking off the pick and roll, which is where he's most dangerous. All that it took for Harden to improve was to be more consistently aggressive. Nick Collison working his way back into the lineup was also probably helpful for Harden.

Serge's early season success was predicated on unsustainably hot shooting from mid-long range. It was obvious at the time that Ibaka's amazing TS numbers would come down to earth a bit. He still improved noticeably from his rookie season, and I've seen enough glimpses of other dimensions to Serge's offense to think that he still has quite a bit of room to improve.

Defensively, I think we're all a little turned off by Serge right now because he just ran into probably the two worst matchups for him in the entire playoffs. Pairing him next to a healthy mobile Perk could be devastating. Let's not forget how good the pairing was next to a gimpy-Perk for all but the last series and a half.

justin
justin 5pts

I don't think Ibaka has the value to get someone like Monroe or a young rookie scale guy. I wouldn't trade him for a pick.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@ justin
Smith runs into the same problems too many of our players have: poor shot selection. Not to mention, he doesn't solve the financial issue we'll soon be facing with Ibaka. I'll give you he's a better player right now, but we don't have the coaching to properly utilize him and I don't think he can be our third star without that.

justin
justin 5pts

I'd still trade Serge for Josh Smith.

justin
justin 5pts

I think we could get very good value for Serge within the next season or so and it might be a smart move to hedge the bets. Serge did not really improve that much over the course of the season IMO, like Harden did. His start to the year was very good then he tailed off, and really struggled with his offensive game after starting.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@DXL
I would have traded him for Cousins last year. That was under the idea that our tight knit culture would keep Cousins out of imploding. A non-imploding Cousins is a dominant player. This year I would rethink Cousins because he's had a year to learn bad habits and be around poor personnel. But, I would probably still trade him for Greg Monroe. Monroe doesn't get blocks, but he'll pick your pocket like nobody's business. He probably creates more turnovers than Ibaka does since many of Ibaka's blocks end up out of bounds. And then Monroe is a considerably better scorer (soft touch and great hands) and passer.

Would I trade Ibaka for anyone in this year's draft? Maybe if Kanter had a great workout for Presti and co. I don't think we would/should make a deal until later, when the cap number is imminently apparent.

DXL
DXL 5pts

@Keith
I said before the 2010 draft, before Serge really blossomed, that I wouldn't trade him for any player in the draft besides Wall. I was right. Would you trade Serge right now for Derrick Favors or Demarcus Cousins or Evan Turner? Heck no.

Now in 2011, in a much weaker draft, after Serge has become a proven contributor, why trade him for a prospect, a question mark? Derrick Williams and Enes Kantor both have a significant chance of being busts or very average players. Serge is proven and has won games for the Thunder in the playoffs.

Is Serge better than Nick Collison? No, he's not. Nick is a special player. I wouldn't trade Nick for Derrick Williams or Enes Kantor either.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Jimbo Slice
Personally, I like Kanter much more. Seems like a more translatable skillset (post scorer, rebounder, big body) and I feel like he would have demolished the NCAA if he would have been allowed to play.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@DJ 7
Players want to get paid, plain and simple. You have to realize, at this age, none of these guys are negotiating their own contracts. They aren't colluding and taking less money to join with other stars, they are just young guys whose agents do all the negotiating. It would be great if Ibaka chose to stay for 8 million or so, but it's also not realistic. Guys who do what Ibaka does tend to get giant contracts. If it was character, KD wouldn't have taken the max, he would have left some on the table for his teammates. But that's not how it happens, sorry.

@The Beard Knows
And yet almost no one in the league plays like him. We all take development a bit too much like a given here. We started with a bunch of very high draft picks. Most of them panned out (Jeff Green never got any better). But even the guys who improved have many of the same problems they had on day one (Russ can't shoot/makes bad decisions, KD settles for jumpshots and never developed a post game). What I'm saying is that Ibaka is going to make a ton of money in a few years. If we can get what we need from the PF position for less, it's prudent to look around.

@AD
No one is giving up on anybody. I postulated the idea because of finances, not talent. Is it prudent to pay your 4th option on offense and 3rd best defender 12 million a year? That's what guys like Ibaka make. I'll be just as happy using up all of Ibaka's rookie contract and not trading him, but at a certain point he may be more valuable to someone else than we are willing to pay.

The Beard Knows
The Beard Knows 5pts

@ Jimbo Slice
You're not alone, the guy has Beasleyitis.

Jimbo Slice
Jimbo Slice 5pts

Am I the only one not really sold on Derrick Williams? Typically I have an all right feel for what players will be steals and busts, but I didn't watch college ball anywhere near like I normally do this year. But something about Derrick Williams' game says underachieving tweener moreso than oversized beastly 3 contrary to the popular consensus.

AD
AD 5pts

It fascinates me how eager some are to trade away young and extremely talented players.

Is it you believe they've reached their ceiling?

At 21, 22?

Is it a product of so many being fans of college sports where roll over is more common?

Or perhaps this is just a nature human condition to want change?

The Beard Knows
The Beard Knows 5pts

@ Keith
Collison's skills are coachable, Ibaka's are not.

DJ 7
DJ 7 5pts

@ Keith

then what happens when that someone with quality use wants a bigger contract? trade him off too. Players then won't want to resign, or sign here because they'll feel the team will trade them away once they feel they can replace them. you gotta be faithful to some of your players who aren't the leaders of the team. I hope that is why Presti went as far as drafting good charecter guys so they know their role, and know what they're worth. I honestly don't know why Green thinks he's worth 8-10 mllion a year.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@DXL
I would disagree with that. Serge is a one trick pony, so to speak. It's a great trick, but Collison proved throughout the playoffs that being smart is as good or better than being a freak athlete. Now don't get me wrong, I love Serge. I love that teams fear driving on him. But Perk is going to do a lot of what Serge does next year, while at the same time being a better overall defender.

If Williams or Kanter pan out, the team may be just as well or better off. That's really the idea. If Ibaka is making himself too expensive down the line, trade him in for someone with equal utility on a rookie contract.

DJ 7
DJ 7 5pts

I don't think we should get rid of thabo, but get another perimeter player peferably a 3 who can shoot outside, and play decent defense. Thabo then can be moved to the bench and be used only when needed to. Kinda like how Boston was using Marquise Daniels last in their trip to he finals two seasons ago but with less minutes. Hopefully Thabo gets something around 6-9 minutes a game, 8-14 if we need him for defensive purposes. Kinda like how Dallas uses Deshawn Stevenson, or Atlanta uses their SG. Dang i forget his name which is bad since i watched him since he joined the league!!! GRRR what is it?

Also i don't remember who was it that suggested we get Kirelenko for a 32/4 year deal but WHAT THE HELL IS WRONG WITH YOU!!! LOL. If this team pays a player like AK-47 that much at this time, man i would personally smack Presti. Don't you guys see that we should go into SAVE MONEY FOR WESTBROOK, HARDEN, AND IBAKA MODE!!!

The only other players that should get a deal like that are the 3 i just mentioned even then expect Ibaka to get a 36-38/6 year deal, Westbrook a 60-64/6 year deal, and Harden the 32/4 year deal. I expect Ibaka to be signed to even less that that though,

DXL
DXL 5pts

@Keith
I'm kind of down on Ibaka at the moment but I wouldn't trade him for any player in the 2011 draft. He has proven NBA productivity and skills and he's got a higher ceiling than any of those guys. I don't think any other GM would trade Serge for a pick either.

Would I trade Serge for Washington's #1 and #4 picks? It's close but probably not. Derrick Williams & Enes Kantor does not equal Serge's value.

Jimbo Slice
Jimbo Slice 5pts

@ The Beard Knows
To be honest I'd have to disagree and say Russ may possibly be the most expendable of the four; not so much for the fact that he is necessarily worse than the other three, but for the depth at the point guard position at this point in the league, and the shifting trend (that he's kind of set) of uber athletic scoring point guards. Over the years I think it's almost more possible that you find another Westbrook than it is KD, Ibaka, or Harden.

The Beard Knows
The Beard Knows 5pts

@ Daniel Plainview
The most frequent comparisons that people give for Ibaka are Shawn Kemp and Bill Russell. I don't think you trade players like that. I think that Harden is the most expendable of the four as much as it pains me to say it. I think that Ibaka would benefit immensely from summer camp with Hakeem. Look what it did for Dwight Howard.

Jimbo Slice
Jimbo Slice 5pts

@ Daniel Plainview
true enough but I'd rather consider that later than sooner. And yes, plantar fasciitis is a very treatable injury. It's just hard to treat during the season when you are constantly pounding on it.

And just one more time. I'm with Sammy. Completely smitten with Charles Jenkins. I don't know how exactly he fits onto our team, but I think we should definitely figure out a way for him to fit.

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

@jimbo, I dont want to trade Ibaka, Im totally smitten with he and his ceiling, but come next year after we resign RW , JH will be up too for his resignings and financially, it might befit us to consider the option.

SoonerNacho
SoonerNacho 5pts

@ The Beard Knows

Plantar fasciitis is not really a chronic debilitating condition.
Tons of guys in the league deal or dealt with it with it and rest and treatment can be effective. At this point I would expect Thabo to recover.

Russel Westbrook playoff tribute video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nBnlsEevsCk

Jimbo Slice
Jimbo Slice 5pts

I like this Charles Jenkins kid. A LOT

But why the heck would we trade Ibaka? You don't have to have people that can score with the ball in their hands at every position. He led the playoffs in blocks. He does his job as good as anybody else in the league and is only 21. We can worry about the money troubles when we get there.

Daniel Plainview
Daniel Plainview 5pts

I would not trade Ibaka this year, not only because hell be worth more next year, but there are much better players in next years draft

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Thunder S
I don't mean to imply it is a sounds strategy, only that it is a better strategy for them than it is for us. KD from 38 feet while triple covered is worse than a Lebron 18 foot pullup. And Russ shots worse than both those guys.

Keith
Keith 5pts

Amidst all the Russ trade talk and criticism, amid the talk of a balanced offense (that will never be with Ibaka-Perk being nonfactors), amid the talk of contracts running out, I wonder.

How much is Ibaka worth in a draft-day trade? This year, Probably as high as the second pick. Next year? Hard to say, but probably top 5. Just throwing it out there: if there is so much problem with resigning everyone and having no one to score down low, would it be worth it to trade Ibaka for a top pick? Would Derrick Williams be better for the team? How about Enes Kanter, the Turkish Marc Gasol? What about next year, with low post stud Jared Sullinger? Something to think about. Trading him now adds more money until his extension, but adds two more years before serious financial issues arise.

Thunder S
Thunder S 5pts

@ Keith
i would agree if they were driving to the rim on all the isos. problem is i see them taking just as many jumpers as kd and russ do at the end of games.

Keith
Keith 5pts

@Thunder S
Admittedly, both Lebron and Wade are better ISO players than Russ and KD. Russ doesn't have the body control to get as close to the rim as Wade/Lebron when defenses pack the paint. KD can't dribble in traffic. The problem isn't the media perception here, it's that we run an offense not suited to our players.

Thunder S
Thunder S 5pts

its worth noting that miami basically runs the same late game offense as us. hero ball. the media just trusts wade and lebron more than they do kd and russ.

also it speaks volumes to how media perceptions of players colors their perception of the "smart" play or the "right" play. replace russ w/ wade and they would not be saying wade pass the damn ball. agreed, russ is nowhere near as good as wade, but is a semi-contested wade jumper that much better than a semi-contested russ mid ranger?

The Beard Knows
The Beard Knows 5pts

@ justin
I'd say that Collison is what makes that play work but you're right. They would be able to cheat off Thabo too much for it to be as consistently effective.
I don't know coaching assistants very well. Are they are any creative offensive assistants we might be able to plunder?

justin
justin 5pts

@ The Beard Knows

What makes that play work is that the other team has to worry about Harden shooting. Thabo wouldn't get open as easily.

Thabo's a bad offensive player who needs the ball in very specific places to finish.

The Beard Knows
The Beard Knows 5pts

He is a slippery around the basket finisher..historically anyways. Anyone remember the Collison-Harden backdoor cut they did almost every game before people started keying on Harden? Sefolosha would excel in that setup.

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