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A lot of people have floated the Russell Westbrook-for-Chris Paul trade idea and while it’s pretty much entirely speculation and bored lockout-ists, when someone as smart and level-headed as Kevin Pelton does it, you kind of have to look harder.
You’re Sam Presti (designer glasses and perfectly gelled hair and all). You just signed Russell Westbrook to an extension the second a new CBA is signed. Dell Demps calls you. Chris Paul for Westbrook, straight up.
What do you do?
(If you’re really Presti, obviously you try and negotiate a deal that eventually lands you Paul and Emeka Okafor for Byron Mullens, Cole Aldrich and two second rounders in 2018, but you’re not actually Sam Presti and you don’t actually possess his Jedi mind tricks. So just play along.)
First instinct says to do it. Chris Paul with Kevin Durant and a supporting cast of James Harden, Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison sounds like an incredible roster. It sounds like it because it is. But I think there’s a reason the real Sam Presti would pass on it. Meaning you should too.
Keeping Westbrook’s young career in perspective is always important. Because after his solid but erratic rookie season, we all weren’t sure what his ceiling might be. Starting point guard material for sure, but a 20-8-5 guy? An All-Star? A second-team All-NBA guy? Those things seemed like major stretches, especially if you said it would happen just a season later.
The things Pelton and others knock on Westbrook for are accurate. He’s got tunnel vision. He can call his own number too often. He can stall the offense. He gives away possessions. He turns it over too much. He doesn’t see the floor as well as others.
But think back to this list after we watched him those first 82 games. It was a lot longer and a lot uglier. He’s come a long way in just a couple seasons. People say you can’t improve court vision, that it’s something you have or don’t. Well Westbrook’s absolutely improved in that area. He still turns the ball over but they aren’t straight careless giveaways now. Most come on charges where he’s attacking to create or score. (Besides, turnovers don’t mean the world. Jason Kidd and Steve Nash have routinely finished in the top five their entire careers in turnovers each season. You know what starting point guard averaged the least giveaways per game? Derek Fisher. You really want that?)
I’m not saying Russell Westbrook will be better than Chris Paul. He definitely isn’t right now, especially when CP3 is right. I had no issue saying that Paul is the best point guard in the NBA. He absolutely is. But I also think Westbrook is the most promising. I still don’t entirely know what he’s capable of because he’s trended so rapidly upward. I thought 20 points and eight assists a game would be something he could shoot for in our dreams, but he crushed that without much issue at the age of 22 and in his third season. So what’s next?
A lot of people don’t think Westbrook fits with Durant. You can’t have two primary scorers battling for the ball. I think Dwyane Wade and LeBron James would tell you it can work fine, but it’s true — Westbrook’s intended role isn’t to fire up 25 shots a game to Durant’s 20. Westbrook would confirm that every time. But he’s a take-what-the-defense-gives-you kind of player and in the postseason where the fire and brimstone rained down on him night after night, that’s all he was doing. Durant was being doubled everywhere so Westbrook — the Thunder’s second best player and scorer — tried to pick up slack.
Everyone loves the idea of a “pure” point guard, especially in terms of dishing to Durant, but that’s just a word. I think you’re better off having a darn good player next to KD. Let’s face it: All point guards aren’t created equal. Steve Nash isn’t Rajon Rondo. Rondo isn’t Derrick Rose. Rose isn’t Paul. Paul isn’t Deron Williams. Each player is different, for better or worse. Nobody’s perfect. Doesn’t mean a roster can’t work unless some kind of prototype player steps in and fills a role. We aren’t cloning Bob Cousy’s or John Stockton’s here. The point man is different nowadays, like it or not.
But don’t tell me a team can’t win with a scoring point guard either. The Spurs got along just fine with Tony Parker running the show. Parker has never averaged more than 6.9 assists per game in a season, while scoring as much as 22 a game in 2008-09. Westbrook averaged 8.2 assists last year and 8.0 the year before. Parker doesn’t shoot as much as Westbrook but there’s a good reason for it — he doesn’t have to. The Spurs’ order of operations has always been something like 1) Tim Duncan, 2) Manu Ginobili and then 3) Tony Parker. The middle man is key. The Thunder need that bridge player to stand between Durant and Westbrook and help relieve the stress and anxiety of trying to figure out where the ball goes.
Good thing they’ve got that guy in James Harden. Jeff Green was supposed to be the bridge but obviously that didn’t really work out. Harden proved he’s entirely capable of stepping into a secondary scoring role as well as handling ball-handling and distributing duties as well. It’s why Harden starting next year is so important. He’s a mediator. His presence alone in the offense connects Durant to Westbrook much better. The better Harden gets, the better Westbrook gets. It’s less responsibility for Westbrook to handle offensively. He can focus more on playing off the ball, scoring efficiently and using his athleticism to attack and create. Westbrook could be a player that averages 25-7 (also known as Derrick Rose), but at his most effective place, he’s probably something like 18-10-5 with solid percentages.
Westbrook needs to improve in some areas. He knows it. Good thing he’s just, you know, 22 years old. At the rate he’s improved and transformed his game from year one to year three has been kind of incredible. He’s added a solid jumper, sees the floor much better, is under control more, passes the ball more authoritatively, actually understands offense and is capable of running an offense. Don’t forget: The Thunder won 55 games, the Northwest Division and was two fourth quarters away from playing for an NBA title. All with a team that features its top four players under the age of 23. The Thunder got to the Western Finals more because of Russell Westbrook, not in spite of him. People seem to forget that when they start playing with the Trade Machine.
Does Chris Paul dishing to KD sound like a good idea? Of course. But I also like the idea of Durant, Westbrook and Harden building a new and improved Spurs trio. There are other factors to account for like CP3′s health, his contract status and a couple other things which make it all a little less attractive, but it’s more about what makes the most sense in terms of winning now, and long-term.
It’s not even entirely about the future and the “What If?” factor with Westbrook. It’s not entirely about how good he might be. It’s about how good he is now. This Thunder team is a force with Westbrook running the show. The whole team has to evolve and grow a little more to get to a championship level. The whole goal is to win titles and if trading Westbrook for CP3 means that happens, sign me up. But it’s not so easy to just swap parts in basketball and adding CP3 doesn’t guarantee anything.
@ Crow
FYI Dirk also has a no trade clause. I believe him and Kobe are the only players which have the no trade clause.
CP3 cant score. hahaha Wow "shakeshead"
I would take this deal in a heartbeat. Assuming contracts are extended, etc, there is no way that Paul is not an upgrade as an individual player as well as a better fit for the team. I understand that Westbrook grew up these last few years with the Thunder, but I feel people are over valuing our own players ... Paul would take this team to another level. The only point that might get me to hesitate is Paul's injury history compared to WB ... but it is a risk I would take.
Paul would improve our offensive flow, our D, and would add a great deal of leadership as well
Thunder are the 2nd best team in offense EFF in this playoff.We have enough talent to play offense but we dont have good plan.So what we need is not a pure PG who passes ball but a assistant coach who can build a good system for our players.
And CP3 cannot be better,but Russ can.Cp3 pay more attention on his stat but not the victory of his team.In our games against hornets,I dont remember he had some highlight time in the last 5 minutes.What he did was passing ball to his teammates who cannot score.Sometimes I really dont like Russ's shot selection ,but he never feared to shot when team needed him to do.
I don't think I'd make the trade because I think this is a better deal for Paul than for the Thunder. I think the Thunder already have the major pieces they need to play for a championship. They just need to learn to use them better. For all we know, starting Harden may help make that happen this coming year. I'm also one of those who think that part of what we were seeing in Westbrook's play was lack of options. There seemed to be an awful lot of standing around on offense. I'm not convinced that Chris Paul could fix that. I think the Thunder are at the point where they just need some tweeks in order to get to the championship. Trading for Paul would be a major overhaul.
DSYIII :If it wasn’t for cp3′s dominance in the lakers series, no sane person would be seriously considering this trade idea. Chris is the best point guard in the league, but as we’ve seen this past season, it’s a terrible idea to hang your franchise potential on a young guard with a bum knee (b-roy). RW is a completely different type of player than chris, and will never be a “pure” point guard but, imho, he has the potential to be a small poor-man’s jordan, and a top-5 player in the league for a long time to come. If james can navigate the duties of distributing between kd and russ, and often being the primary ball-handler, all this trade talk is going to die down in a hurry.
I know I haven't posted much lately ( NBA lockout syndrome) but "small poor-man's Jordan...? Time to put the alcohol down bro.
I 100% agree with Keith's post. I m as big a fan of Westbrook as anybody, but this is about fit with the team, not taking away anything from Westbrook.
The biggest thing i noticed was no one really handled momentum/tempo that well. This caused late game collapses...because like other posters have mentioned, when they are on they are on and when they are off they are off. Paul has the ability to manufacture something in the situations where people are off and thats the big difference.
Westbrook could be derrick rose south in NO. That said, it is incumbent on the coaching staff to try and mold him in the role of understanding tempo and game situations (he may not be able to do it as well as paul) so that he realizes that he needs to be a steadying force rather than a catalyst. Maybe thats antithetical to his natural game, and if so a trade makes sense not just for the Thunder but for him as well.
Only 24 players in the history of the league who played 25+ minutes per game had a higher usage than Westbrook last season. They did for an average of a bit over 3 times each. At least 80% are or will be Hall of Famers. So only about 4 Hall of Fame players in their prime per decade have taken a higher usage than Westbrook did last season.
He was in the bottom 20% on FG%, bottom 12% on eFG%, bottom 30% on TS%.
Michael Jordan was the worst on TS% in this group in his first comeback season with the Wizards. Iverson had the next 4 worst... in his prime.
Durant has been at top 2%. Westbrook passed him.
Westbrook had been about top 8% in the league on usage his first two seasons but increased it by 20% to almost make the top 1%.
On 6 different versions of Adjusted +/- Paul is the winner over Westbrook in all cases by a lot. This season the 2 estimates are by a huge margin and by a tremendously huge margin, more than ever any previous season before Westbrook upped his usage so much.
Some other players can't be traded in the final year of their deal without waiving it (I believe players who took a RFA Qualifying Offer) but that is a specific conditions block and is not a negotiated on-going right.
"A "no-trade" clause can be negotiated into an individual contract if the player has been in the NBA for at least eight seasons, and has played for the team with which he is signing for at least four seasons."
So Durant or Westbrook could try to get one of these on their 3rd deal with the Thunder.
To my knowledge Kobe has the only one.
Joe :We will never know the answer to the question of whether the team would be better with CP3 in lieu of RW; it’s just impossible to know. But as a fan of basketball for many years I can tell you that I wouldn’t do it just because I hate CP3′s flopping.To me it’s cheesy and cheap. Always looking for Phantom calls. No thanks.
Yeah, I'd REALLY hate to have to eat my words about it all. I'm future hating myself because I know I'd probably defend it at some point.
KD in possible negotiations with Bestikas
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/6848759/oklahoma-city-thunder-kevin-durant-early-stages-contract-negotiations-turkish-team-agent-says
I would absolutely trade Westbrook for Chris Paul if it was offered. CP3 almost singlehanded beat the Lakers in the Playoffs last year. He is THE premier point guard in the NBA and is only 26.
He would make everyone on the team better. Not just KD, but also Harden and especially Ibaka! He would throw lobs up to Ibaka all game long!
I agree with what Keith said: "Perhaps Westbrook can get more efficient, get an outside shot, and more effectively adapt from situation to situation. But CP3 is already that player. Think about this. Russ takes what the defense gives him, but he has enough weaknesses that what is left is a poor option too often. CP3 forces the defense to chase what he wants to do because he can hurt them in every way."
If we do this though, CP3 would have to agree to sign a long-term extension with OKC. That's the only caveat I would have. If he does sign long-term, I jump on it.
CP3, Harden, Durant, Ibaka, Perkins = Championship!
By the way, does anyone else love how silent Westbrook has been this entire Summer. No summer league stuff; no globe-trotting; no talking about playing overseas; no attention-grabbing whatsoever. I hope it means that he's working hard on improving. Even if he's just sitting at home, I like the silence.
I think there's just no way it's going to happen. Paul has to agree to an extension with OKC. Westbrook has to agree to an extension with NOLA. The former might happen, but I can't see Westbrook agreeing to that. The only way that could happen is if Westbrook agreed to an extension with OKC and then got traded. Does anyone honestly think that with all this talk, Westbrook isn't going to make sure there's a no-trade clause in his contract?
Not to mention what Crow has already mentioned. You have to get the salaries all figured out to make the trade work, and OKC will have to give up more pieces to make it work. I don't see Presti doing that. But I'd love to see what kind of trade machine trades people could come up with.
We will never know the answer to the question of whether the team would be better with CP3 in lieu of RW; it's just impossible to know. But as a fan of basketball for many years I can tell you that I wouldn't do it just because I hate CP3's flopping.
To me it's cheesy and cheap. Always looking for Phantom calls. No thanks.
If it wasn't for cp3's dominance in the lakers series, no sane person would be seriously considering this trade idea. Chris is the best point guard in the league, but as we've seen this past season, it's a terrible idea to hang your franchise potential on a young guard with a bum knee (b-roy). RW is a completely different type of player than chris, and will never be a "pure" point guard but, imho, he has the potential to be a small poor-man's jordan, and a top-5 player in the league for a long time to come. If james can navigate the duties of distributing between kd and russ, and often being the primary ball-handler, all this trade talk is going to die down in a hurry.
If i was a GM, then maybe, but since im just a homerish fan i say NO!!!
If Chris Paul is healthy and signs an extension how could you say no to this? "He makes his teammates better" is something that gets thrown around a lot, but Paul is one of the few guys in the league who really does consistently make his teammates better. Paul is the only PG I'd trade Westbrook for straight up, because he's far and away the best at what he does.
Paul and Westbrook have similar counterpart defense numbers but Paul has far better defensive efficiency on the court and defensive rating. New Orleans is better elsewhere and probably helps better. Durant has fine counterpart data too but the opponents last season found ways to OKC (or least the old team) look average. Perkins made the defense look a lot better but team offense with Perkins on the court lost almost 3/4ths of the gain made by the defense. In limited minutes. Next season will give a better gauge if Perkins helps more than he hurts.
The difference is I think we have a good offensive team when we share the ball. Most think Westbrook is our offense +KD
Whether they were too tired to perform at top level on defense after all their offensive efforts and focus
or not as motivated to do so I don't know; but that is a bigger issue than the offense to me right now. And yet, last season has not been a good guide for what to expect on offense or defense in the next season for the last few years. Have they established their style and numbers pretty much by now or is further significant change coming for good or bad?
should have been...
...Westbrook and Durant had near the worst individual defensive ratings amongst the rotation (exceeded only by Green and Krstic) and near the very bottom team defensive efficiencies on the court amongst all team players.
The offensive efficiency was 2.7 points better without Westbrook than with last regular season. Now that is the raw data and is affected by Russell playing a lot with Green and Thabo but a lot with Durant too, while "off" has Harden and Collison and Maynor and more bench opponents. So you can't make a definitive case about th equality of the offense without Westbrook that others can't argue. But still, they did fine without him on the court in that context.
As bad as the offense can look when one of the stars is cold or they aren't getting foul shots, it wasn't the general problem last season.
The bigger problem last season was that without Adams in their ear Westbrook and Durant had near the bottom team defensive efficiencies on the court among the rotation (exceeded only by Green and Krstic and near the worst individual defensive ratings as well. Perkins will have to get them to play more and better defense.
I take this trade every day, three times on Monday's, and twice on a Saturday.
I love Russ, I love his game, I love his work ethic, passion and youth. I'm taking nothing away from what an outstanding player he is.
Saying that, Chris Paul is better, will always be better, and will be better for longer.
No player in the NBA controls a game like CP3, he has the ability to be a game winner in every facet of the game. The most obvious one is his passingvisionleadership, this is one word because they are all interwoven, not only does CP3 have prodigious passing and vision but because he is willing to sacrifice/serve (good leadership is this) his teammates, he knows they aren't the mostly talented group in NO and he knows that they might not make the shots he sets them up for, but HE DOESN'T CARE, he will throw that pass everytime. Imagine if instead of setting up T. Ariza ▪ M. Belinelli ▪ C. Landry ▪ E. Okafor ▪ and still taking it to the Lakers for 6 games (sound familiar?) he was surrounded by the best scorer in the league, and the rest of the talented thunder?
CP can also score, score efficiently and can score from anywhere. (He just chooses not to)
Finally, CP's defence and ability to create turnovers from either his supernaturally quick hands and his ability to read the game.
Why I say CP will be better for longer, is that his game isn't tied to his athleticism, basically CP is a black steve nash who can also defend at a high level. He will be this good for a long, long time.
Chris Pauls lack of ego, desire to win, prodigious skills and passing would fit the thunder perfectly, especially as Harden steps into the starting lineup and Serge develops his offence (immediately better being fed by paul) the only thing you can take away from paul is that he isn't a big dude. no one is perfect.
I'm also skeptical that inserting Harden into the starting lineup will fix things on it's own. Adding another ball handler/distributor sounds like a fix if the problem is Westbrook.
But adding another passing option seems like it would require a more sophisticated offense. Do we actually have a quality offensive system and Westbrook is gumming up the works? Or will adding Harden to the starting lineup only improve our outside shooting + open up the lane for Westbrook as opposed to making our team offense more dynamic?
I'm not saying Westbrook isn't responsible for some of the team's problems, but our offense in general seems like the bigger issue to me.
Westbrook's a boss. I don't think CP3 vs Westbrook is as cut and dry as Russ's detractors make it out to be.
CP3 is a better passer, but if you think receiving the ball from CP3 is going to make Thabo's wide open 3s stop bricking or make Perkins handle the ball with more finesse around the rim, you're crazy.
IMO Westbrook is better in our system than CP3. Maybe Brooks has the chops to adjust the offense and the total lack of structure was his best plan for using the players he was given. I doubt it; I fail to see how all the dudes standing around on the perimeter will suddenly change into motion and open looks just because CP3 is pounding the ball instead of Russ. Seems to me like there's more going on here than Russ is a ball hog.
Ibaka is the big winner in a CP3-Westbrook trade, but I don't know how much that should affect a decision. Still a lot of unanswered questions about reasonable expectations for Ibaka.
Id do a Westbrook for Paul and a Vet 2nd team dude. Like a grant hill
I think it far more likely that Westbrook does one of the following: a) re-signs or b) is signed n traded for a package that emphasizes draft picks and role players rather than a star.
Unlikely Westbrook goes to UFA. Very few top guys do but he might in order to pick his team. If he want to plays for the Clips he might wait for UFA in 2013 and walk right in. Perhaps with Love too to play center if they wanted to re-unite and play with Griffin and Gordon.
How many other teams would a) bump their current PG (vet or young guy), (b) trade enough of the right stuff to satisfy Presti and c & d) be able to and pay him the full max? I am having a hard time identifying such a team. There might be a few, but I think it is probably just a few.
A Paul – Westbrook deal will seem very very difficult before fall 2012 or summer 2013 and only if Paul stuck around New Orleans and the only way that happens is if New York doesn't go for him or can't pay him enough.
Westbrook-Perkins could work before then or Westbrook and 2 to 3 others.
@Keith
I disagree that Harden does not create for his teammates - though I'll concede it isn't his primary objective.
I think Russ is better at adjusting to how his teammates are playing than you are giving him credit for.
But I'm not going to argue with you that CP3 is the better player, and the better PG.
An extension would not raise Westbrook's salary until 2012-13 or after Paul is already a free agent unless he is re-signed by New Orleans then trade or sign n traded.
And even then, under base year compensation rules if they still apply, Westbrook's trade value would only be half his new salary and require the Thunder to be well under the cap to do the deal under current trade rules or throw in other players.
It would seem virtually impossible to do a Paul - Westbrook deal under the current rules next season or next summer that didn't include several other players or draft considerations.
I laid it out a bit in the bolts, but I still think I would make the trade (assuming obviously that Paul signs a max length extension in a more team-favorable CBA).
The issue of Russ is not just Russ, it's everyone around him. It's not just that Russ has tunnel vision, it's that there isn't a single other quality passer in the starting lineup (KD included). Let's say we throw Harden in. That's great, but it's still 3 guys who create for themselves, and not really for their teammates. Paul fits because he creates shots for the rest of the team when individual scoring prowess fails (which is much of the reason we would run into droughts).
Russ won't be on every night, neither will KD or Harden. The thing is, Russ is always going to shoot, and he's not going to adjust for the games his teammates are having. Paul does exactly that, which leads to greater consistency as a team.
And then there is the statistical argument. The only numbers Russ beats CP3 in (good things at least) are PPG and RPG. PPG is misleading since Paul is considerably more efficient, just taking fewer shots. RPG is also debatable, since Russ's boards went down after we upgraded the frontcourt. And more importantly, rebounding from the PG position is a luxury to begin with. CP3 is a shockingly strong rebounder himself for a PG.
Perhaps Westbrook can get more efficient, get an outside shot, and more effectively adapt from situation to situation. But CP3 is already that player. Think about this. Russ takes what the defense gives him, but he has enough weaknesses that what is left is a poor option too often. CP3 forces the defense to chase what he wants to do because he can hurt them in every way. That's the difference between the two. Westbrook has one type of game, and it can be shut down just by clogging the paint - something only open if Durant is drawing all the attention. CP3 can and does play any game, no defense can stop his game, and his teammates benefit from him rather than him benefitting from them.
I'll take a 22-year old Russell Westbrook over a 26-year old Chris Paul every day of the week and twice on Sunday. He is still improving, and we definitely haven't seen the best of Russell Westbrook yet. His improvement so far is almost staggering. He has far and away exceeded my expectations out of college, and things will get even better.
One of the key factors for me is durability. Russ has played 82 games the first three seasons, and CP3 missed almost half the 2009-2010 season due to injury. I probably just cursed Russ, but I hope not. The guy brings it every night, and I love that about him.
I would be shocked if Russell Westbrook and KD are split up during the next 4 or 5 years. That being said, I'm sure I could easily find a place in my heart for CP3 if the deal did go down. ;)
Agree with the Harden point as well.
Personally, I think that Westbrook is misunderstood as a "chucker." It's just his situation: the OKC offense doesn't move well enough, and Westy can get his shot whenever he likes. And so it happens a lot.
But just for good measure.... LOL! No.
I haven't been posting here enough, I just read the headline to this article and before clicking the link was tempted to just post "LOL no" and leave.
Darn you trolling habits...
* People say you can’t improve court vision, that it’s something you have or don’t. Well Westbrook’s absolutely improved in that area. *
I realize Russ has improved, but I don't think his vision has improved. You can take a guy with no court vision and increase his assists and decrease his turnovers just by showing him what to expect on offensive sets. That isn't vision, it's an understanding of the offense. IMO, Russ' turnovers are still too high because he has to create too much - and he has to create too much because our offense is simplistic.
* I had no issue saying that Paul is the best point guard in the NBA. He absolutely is. But I also think Westbrook is the most promising. *
I still think John Wall has the most potential of any PG since CP3, and that includes Rose. But that's just picking nits for me. You rate him #1 most promising, I'd rate him 3rd (Wall, Rose, Russ).
Totally agreed on the James Harden point. Take Thabo out of the lineup and you have less of Russ trying to create something out of nothing. I'm still hoping for an improvement in consistency from Ibaka too. Those two things alone should provide enough options that it isn't always on Russ to beat a defense that knows when he's coming.
Coming from a thunder fan's perspective, I value westbrook over all other pg's in the league. Rough edges and early hairloss inducing moments and all of that included.
Now if Russel was unhappy in okc, I'd snap trade for cp3. However, nothing but the media analysts who only bothered to watch thunder games during the playoffs would suggest that he was unhappy or that his line of play was somehow suprising. This is our pg.
I'm with the honey badger.
To be clear for non-Insiders, I'm personally uncertain on whether the Thunder should make such a trade. I was looking at it simply from the New Orleans perspective, and largely making the argument that Westbrook is undervalued nationally.
i can't believe this is a topic of discussion