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Parity’s poster child: Competitive balance and the Thunder

by Royce Young on October 21, 2011 at 12:16 pm 18 Comments

Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty Images

The NBA wants you to believe something. We’re fighting for the little man. We’re sticking up for the small market team that can’t fend for itself.

That’s what Deputy Commissioner Adam Silver hammered home yesterday while basically announcing that the league is screwed right now.

“I know we’ve had lots of back and forth with people in this room, but we think that a team that spends $100 million on its payroll versus a team that spends $50 million is at a huge competitive advantage. It’s not a perfect one-to-one correlation, but there’s a huge competitive advantage that comes from the ability to spend more time. And there’s a reason we believe why the NFL has been so successful from a competitive standpoint with a hard cap and a reason that the NHL has been so successful from a competitive standpoint with their flex cap type system which has a hard, absolute cap at the top of the band.”

Before that, David Stern went on and on during his media blitz about how the Sacramento Kings are trying to live in a world where they spend $45 million to the Lakers $100 million. It isn’t fair. No way around it. It’s not. Historically, the trophies live in the big markets. Chicago, New York, Boston, Los Angeles — over the past 60 years, 36 championships were won by those cities (40 if you count the four won by the Minneapolis Lakers). Four cities accounted for 60 percent of the NBA’s champions since 1950. There’s never, ever been a precedent for competitive balance in the NBA. Never has the playing field been level.

And has the league grown? Has it succeeded? Yes and yes. Most would say the top of the mountain for the NBA was the 1990s with Michael Jordan and the Bulls. Or if not that, the 1980s with Magic’s Lakers battling Bird’s Celtics. Or if not that, maybe right now with the plethora of talent littered throughout the league.

This isn’t to say small markets haven’t ever won. There’s the Spurs, who have served as the beacon of hope for little guys. Except remember: When those boring Spurs were winning, that was kind of a dark time for the league. Scoring was down, ratings slipped and interest waned. That could’ve been because of a post-Jordan hangover, but the 2000s weren’t great for the league.

Now, that new team everyone points to in order to say, “See, they’re doing it! It’s possible!” is the Thunder. In TV terms, the league’s smallest market has churned out one of the most promising basketball franchises in the league. And not just one that’s a flash in the pan. One that has the chance to succeed over a sustained period of time.

That competitive balance Stern and Silver speak of? It hasn’t meant squat to Oklahoma City. Even playing against the system, the Thunder have built a perennial contender. Why? Brilliant management, shrewd financial discipline and a good amount of luck.

Luck? Yeah, don’t deny it. Sam Presti’s done wonderful work in the draft, but let’s face it: He drafted No. 2, 4 and 3 in 2007, 2008 and 2009. In 2007, he snagged the fifth pick in Jeff Green. Kevin Durant fell in his lap after Portland whiffed on Greg Oden. Now to Presti’s credit — and you won’t find anyone that sings his praises louder and more often than me — he’s three-for-three. Where other general managers pick duds — Hasheem Thabeet, Oden, Michael Beasley, O.J. Mayo — Presti has taken players that not only fit well into his roster structure, but have develop-able talent.

The Thunder thrive on rookie contracts and high-value veteran. Why? Because it’s the cheapest labor there is. There’s no coincidence that on every “underpaid NBA stars” list the Thunder register three or four players. The question is though: What happens with Serge Ibaka and James Harden? After Durant and Westbrook see their paydays, will Clay Bennett have the pockets to keep Ibaka and Harden too? If the Thunder were in Los Angeles or New York, it would happen. Will it in OKC?

Stern and Silver are absolutely correct -- the Thunder don't have equal opportunity to win. The Lakers, Knicks, Bulls, Mavericks and Celtics have a larger margin for error. It isn't fair. Never has been.

But it’s worked so far in Oklahoma City. It worked in San Antonio. Which is why some are quick to wonder why it can’t work in Sacramento, Minnesota or Milwaukee. Why? Because there aren’t 10 Tim Duncans. There aren’t 10 Kevin Durants. And there sure as hell aren’t 10 Sam Prestis or R.C. Bufords. It’s the world we live in — some people are better at things than others. And when you’re better, you see success. Are organizations like the Thunder, Spurs, Wolves and Bucks at a competitive disadvantage? Sure they are. But is it a death sentence for mediocrity? Absolutely not. History says it’s harder to win, but it’s not impossible.

And honestly, I don’t know about you but I sort of take pride in the Thunder winning despite the system working against them. I love the fact that Clay Bennett and Sam Presti just do it better than everyone else. Winning is fun, but winning with the odds against you is kind of sweet. Knowing your organization is a step ahead of the game, playing chess while everyone else plays checkers is something to be proud of. It’s a little extra feather in the cap of Thunder fans. “Our front office is smarter than your front office” is the new “My dad can beat up your dad.”

But once upon a time, Geoff Petrie was Boy Genius in Sacramento when he was rolling with Chris Webber. Kevin McHale drafted Kevin Garnett in for the Wolves and built a playoff contender. Eventually the well runs dry. At some point, Tim Duncan’s going to retire. And the Spurs will either reload or have to go through some small market pains.

(The opposite example has been the Knicks over the past decade though. Tons of money, tons of spending and tons of futility. Money doesn’t always equal wins. Management does. The league is cyclical. Sometimes your team is good, sometimes it’s not. Do the big markets have an advantage? Sure. But does it always matter? Nope. Do I like asking myself questions? Sometimes.)

Stern and Silver are absolutely correct — the Thunder don’t have equal opportunity to win. The Lakers, Knicks, Bulls, Mavericks and Celtics have a larger margin for error. It isn’t fair. Never has been.

But even with the league preaching that, I get the feeling it’s a red herring to divert attention away from the fact the owners are trying to squeeze the players out of a 20 percent (or so) paycut. It’s the owners’ version of “Let us play!” Preach fairness and tug at the heartstrings of small market fans to win support. All while reaching in the back pocket of the players. Preach parity and win public support. It’s a brilliant move. Maybe they mean it this time, but the league’s never really cared much for competitive balance, so why now? With proper revenue sharing, big market success often leads to more small market money. Or at least, more money and more success for the NBA. Which is what it’s really all about, right?

Bossman Henry Abbott of TrueHoop put it well:  “Instead, the league asks us all to celebrate competitive balance—so long as the pain of creating it is felt primarily by the players. When owners could do something real to make the league more competitive, like change the playoff format or pay Chris Paul far more on the open market, they lose interest.”

This issue directly affects the Thunder. Not now, but it will eventually. Should we care? Sure. But it’s kind of hard to right now. Especially when there’s a certain amount of pride in the fact OKC wins even without the league’s small market handouts.

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Hermit
Hermit 5pts

Is competitive balance good for the league ?

I guess not, as long as you have plenty of fans of franchises , who do not mind playing the role of the Globetrotter's Washington Generals.

Just me, but if the Thunder were just fodder for the big market teams to have a team to beat, then I go look for my sporting entertainment elsewhere.

I do not completely understand how fans of some NBA franchises have tolerated this absence of parity in the NBA, for as long as they have.

The only possible explanation I can find for that, is that I've never gone to a Thunder game knowing which team would win. As opposed to college football games where we know the outcome before it kicks off, all that remains to be settled is what the final score will be.

Wins are hard fought in the NBA, no matter what team's are playing. I almost always leave the arena thinking I've seen a competitive game. Non competitive routs are the exception.

But somehow, that does not translate to championships.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

is competitive balance good for the league though? look at the world series this year, on a national level do people really care about rangers vs cardinals? is it really the same draw that the yankees, red sox, phillies, angels bring?

would a hypothetical wolves bobcats nba finals bring a big tv audience?

Crow
Crow 5pts

Ok Hermit. My mistake.

Hermit
Hermit 5pts

I was sorta speaking to Royce, but I guess I did not clarify that.@ Crow

Crow
Crow 5pts

The only qualifiers not to win 50 by their 4th year were Carter, McGrady, Bosh and Love.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Of the last 19 teams who got a young player who produced a PER 23+ and scored 20+ points a game by their 4th year in the last 21 seasons, 80% won 50+ games at least once and probably about 60% won 55+ games. At least 2 made the Finals. That doesn't diminish Presti and the team's performance but it puts it in perspective and highlights the importance of getting the lucky gift of Durant.

Crow
Crow 5pts

I mentioned tanking under Presti (2 seasons) but weak performance before that tanking and lots of luck resulted in in a big move up in the lottery to get Durant, without which the quick & big pickup in team performance would either have been much more difficult or might not have happened. Without the good fortune of getting Durant the team as run might not have even gotten back to the playoffs yet or would have been far less likely to have won a series. Maybe they could have if they hadn't gone for Green and picked better in the rest of the 2007 draft or on some cases thereafter.

Hermit
Hermit 5pts

I think you omitted how OKC came about those high draft picks. Consecutive poor seasons in Seattle and one in OKC created those picks. The fact the team moved in the middle of that run lessened the pain. Fans in OKC did not have to endure most of that, though the first year in OKC was rugged.

How many franchises can go through that kind of drought and survive financially ? Just for the chance to come out on the other end where OKC is now. That's a huge gamble. Takes more than just a little luck, takes a lot of luck.

That many poor seasons in a row result in a franchise finding a new home.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Count the first round pick created to take Thabo (himself a 1st rounder) and Jackson and that will make 12 first rounders used / obtained in 5 years. How many of Maynor, Jackson, Thabo, Aldrich, Mullens will be judged above average acquisitions? DJ White was never really given a chance. 2 picks were used for Aldrich. Mullens seems ublikely. Therre are guys like Thabo in most free agent classes, usually for no more money. If Presti is going to up his success count from 4 to 5 or 6 out of 12 it will probably be from Maynor, Jackson or Aldrich. If it is "enough" in this competitive window, great. If not, then maybe a different draft strategy would have been better and perhaps retaining /getting more vets might have been better. If not, then the next competitive window will offer the same choices- extreme reliance on the draft by trading away assets and tanking or trying a more balanced approach.

Crow
Crow 5pts

It would have taken going 3 for 3 on the rest of draft picks in 2007 after the good fortune (after tanking with PJ) of getting Durant handed to him. That would have been really impressive. Unlikely though for anyone to be that brilliant / lucky but it was out there to be had.

Crow
Crow 5pts

But "if" they win a title then he did more right than not right. Conference finalist is pretty good, above average for a GM in a career. But if they had Noah, Gasol. Landry and Allen with Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Ibaka, Collison, etc.?
They probably would have been conference finalist too, maybe champs already. maybe champs soon more likely.

Crow
Crow 5pts

Worst draft day decision of the decade might be too far, there are a lot of bad ones, but it is probably at least in the top 5 to 10. That they could have had 4 worthwhile pieces instead of Green (and a little cash for Landry) makes it seem bigger to me.

Crow
Crow 5pts

(Clarification: Landry has a separate decision on the same draft day.)

Crow
Crow 5pts

Presti drafted or traded for 10 1st round draft picks thru 2010 and hit big with 4. After that, not much paid off above average and directly... yet. Good, but a different perspective than 3 for 3. About 70% of top 6 picks pay off fairly well. Presti's 3 for 4 is pretty close to league average for that subset. Tanking a couple years and trading off All-Stars gives one extra chips to buoild the future. For his time horizon and his owner loyalty it made sense. A main strength has been that the pieces generally fit together pretty well. Except Green. And not 100% certain about Westbrook and Harden both fitting together yet with each other or Westbrook with Durant long-term.

Crow
Crow 5pts

The Green deal was all that stood in the way of taking Noah and still having 2nd round draft picks to take Landry and M Gasol. And still having a productive perennial All-Star SG.
All told that might have the worst draft day decision of the decade. It certainly is the worst one swept off the books to allow the statement “he’s three-for-three.”

Crow
Crow 5pts

3 for 1 for Perk and a rush to re-sign him fairly long-term at old CBA prices without competitive bidding or much indication of what the returned Perkins could do.

Crow
Crow 5pts

"he’s three-for-three."

If you decide to not count his first bold move for Green.

Unless the later 3 for 1 deal for Perkins eventually fixes it.

Trackbacks

  1. More on payroll and competitive balance | Daily Thunder.com says:
    October 26, 2011 at 1:07 pm

    [...] Young Goto comments Leave a commentLayne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty ImagesI wrote about the red herring that is competitive balance last week. And then Tom Haberstroh came along and did it way, way better.Thanks to the rookie scale that [...]

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