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Surely you’ve seen the 5-on-5 series on ESPN.com. Well, it’s branching out (and by out, I mean down) to the TrueHoop Network. Three questions, three answers. Pretty simple.
It’s a hot little discussion around every team: If you could cut one player, no questions asked, who would it be? The Thunder are in a unique position in that they don’t exactly NEED to axe a player off their salary cap, but still, how would the proposed amnesty clause fit in with OKC?
1. Who should the Thunder use the amnesty clause on?
A. Nate Robinson
B. Thabo Sefolosha
C. Someone else
D. Nobody
Royce Young, Daily Thunder: D. There’s really no sense in waiving Nate Robinson because his $4.5 million contract is more valuable as a trade piece than using it to cut into OKC’s cap space. No reason to cut Thabo because despite the frustrations that come with him, he’s still a good player to have on the roster and he’s not all that expensive. So be patient and don’t do anything just for the sake of it. You know, the Sam Presti Way.
Patrick James, Daily Thunder: E. It just depends on what the clause looks like. If the Thunder can hold onto it for a few years, why burn it on Robinson now when you can use him as a trade piece and keep the amnesty clause for awhile? And even if the Thunder does have to use or or lose it, Robinson might be more useful as a trade chip or deep bench player who can handle extended spot duty in the case of injury. No chance it’s used on Sefolosha.
Beckley Mason, HoopSpeak: D. Because the Thunder will still have to pay the contract of anyone they amnesty, Sefolosha is off the table. I can’t see OKC wasting 10mil. Ditto with Robinson, who will have value if they choose to deal with him. Unless there’s someone out who represents a significant upgrade from those two, and can be had on the cheap, it’s probably best to stay pat. Or just cut Byron Mullins. Just ’cause.
2. Fact or Fiction: Thunder fans should dislike the amnesty clause.
Royce Young: Fact. The clause rewards teams that aren’t disciplined with their spending and offers a bailout for a bad decision. Now, at some point Presti is going to whiff on a free agent or extension, but that hasn’t happened yet. OKC has gotten ahead by staying one step in front of bad front offices. The amnesty clause helps level that playing field, if only a bit.
Patrick James: Fact. One of the Thunder’s key advantages so far (having guys like Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, Serge Ibaka, Eric Maynor and Daequan Cook on rookie contracts SIMULTANEOUSLY) is about to go away already. It’s also a sizable advantage to have a guy like Sam Presti capitalizing on other teams’ mistakes and excesses, and that would be diminished with the amnesty clause. It represents a few arrows being pulled from Presti’s quiver, plus a few returned to competitors.
Beckley Mason: Fact! This rule sucks for smart teams with spare coffers because it’s designed to allow teams to spend their way out of bad decisions. Aside from going back in time to sign Tyson Chandler, what would the Thunder faithful even change about the last four years of moves from Presti, et al.
3. Fill in the Blank: The team that benefits most from the amnesty is _______________.
Royce Young: Miami Heat. Pat Riley has it easy. He’s got LeBron, Wade and Bosh. But he also has it very tough. Because he has to stay under the cap and still fill out a 13-man roster. He splurged by using his mid-level exception on Mike Miller but he was a bust (although he was injured most of last season). Riley needs to trim some fat off the cap and open up room to add a better piece to the puzzle.
Patrick James: Miami Heat. As long as they have the stones to do it, the Heat could benefit in a big way by using the clause on Mike Miller. Surely they planned on getting more than a 9.73 PER from Miller last year. The $24 million he’s owed is a lot of wasted money, but the Heat are in win-or-else mode and could attract some real discounted talent with that cap space. Teams like Detroit could get better financial relief, but the Heat have a chance to really do something with the amnesty clause.
Beckley Mason: I’d say either Portland, Miami or Los Angeles Varsity. The Lakers, because they have plenty of cash and an extra 10 million or so doesn’t kill the bottom line. The Heat because they need space to sign another quality big or spot up shooter (bye bye, Mike Miller). The Blazers because Brandon Roy drags on their future like his femur drags on his tibia. Knee jokes, yo.
It could actually work out well for OKC. Most of the teams that use the amnesty aren't going to be doing it to carve out cap space. It will mostly be to save on luxury tax. That means it's not like there will be a much heavier market for free agents, but there will be a far better crop.
So what happens is that there are now more free agent options for the Thunder to use their cap space to give an amnestied player a more reasonable deal. The team could use a stretch four, and wouldn't a return of Rashard Lewis at a couple million a year (as opposed to a max deal) seem pretty interesting?
Don't mind me, I'm just trying to comment for the 211,683,135th time.
Sweet! It worked!
Just in time for the NBA to cancel the season, which means I'll have no reason to comment here, which means I'll forget how to make a comment, which means I'll have to figure this out again at some point in the future.
But... sweet!
The earlier discussions I heard were that you could use it on a player contract that was in place on your team at the time the provision was created, and that it could be used any time within the next 4 years. I'd be inclined to just bank it for now in case on of our older players with a longer contract gets injured or just begins to decline in performance. If we use our amnesty on Nate Robinson and , god forbid, Thabo or even worse Perkins gets a career ending injury next year or the year after, we'll wish we had saved it. And if at some point in the future one of our vets is under-performing and we need that little extra space to make a trade, then we can invoke the amnesty then.
@osanowhoa I think those two options (career ending injury or severe underperformance) are about the only two that Presti would use the Amnesty Clause on.
Without details of the provision it's hard to guess how it could benefit the team. I think some role players could be available for cheap, though.
The only two ways the amnesty clause helps the Thunder is if we can poach one of those guys who are going to be amnesty'd for a bargain price. The second, and I've mentioned this before, is we hold onto the amnesty for a couple years, and if Kendrick Perkins isn't working out (or any player on our roster for that matter) we use it on him and get that cap room back.
***OR... (and this is kind of a pipe dream) we get on the phone with Tyson Chandler and tell him that we are going to amnesty Kendrick Perkins if Chandler agrees to sign a long-term deal with us. I'm not sure if that kind of discussion would be allowed though.
Also, I used to be Gokc on here but I cant sign in with the new system... Do I have to re-register?
@RRRWHOAAAA I had the same problem, but I was able to set myself up on livefyre with the exact same login and password.
@ThunderChick2010@RRRWHOAAAA I believe you can still log in with your Wordpress account. I think. It worked for me.
I had this issue too. Hence the name. Am I doing something wrong?_
@Royce young- how did you leave Ibaka off the top five 3rd year players list? I get not wanting to sound like a homer, but come on, stand up for okc. Others had him listed... Also, Stephen is arguably the right choice, but with his lack of D you could have argued for harden. Your choice is your choice, so I cant fault your opinion. Also, I love the 3 on 3, but when everyone degrees, it takes some of the fun out of it
@RRRWHOAAAA I'm not worried about sounding like a homer because I already am one. I just didn't have Ibaka in there. He's probably one of the five best, but it was a tough call.
Beno Udrich PG MIlwaukee.
It doesn't make sense for them to pay their backup PG 7 million a year for the next two years. they will be using their amnesty clause on drew goden.
Jason Maxiel PF Detroit
Detroit need to save money and if they only get to amnesty one of the Rip, Ben Gorden, Charlie V trio, then maxiel might go onto the board, at 2 years 10 million. not bad for a high draft pick
Desanga Diop C. Charlotte
Rich cho might want to amnesty Corey Maggette more, as the savings are bigger. Presti gives him a way out. OKC probably wouldn't get enough back for this to be worth it
Francisco Garcia SG Sacremento
Sacremento is desperate to save money. garcia has two years 12 million left on his deal, with a team option for a third. Sacremento will also have high draft picks for the immediate future.
Martell webster SG Minnesota
Why not. Kahnnnnn
Hakim Warrick, Phoenix Suns
owed 4.3 million in 2013 with a team option for 2014. given the suns recent bad decisions he won't be the only one on this list. especially given that their owner is notoriously cheap.
Brad Miller C Minnesota
Even Kahnn Probably doesn't want to pay his backup c 5 million a year for the next two years
Steve Blake. PG LA Lakers
LA wont be able to offer great picks. but will probably give cash. especially if it means getting more then one of their bad contracts off the books. for a better player. cant you just see nate and meta world peace riding the pine togeather, going nuts.
While the thunder don't have any really bad contracts, and want to keep most of the team together. there are still opportunities for the thunder to get real value out of the amnesty provision.
Over the last financial year the thunder made 20 million in profit according to forbes. With the new CBA expected to be significantly more team friendly, the thunder find themselves buyers in a down market. where there will still be many teams looking to save money and reduce payroll.
So the thunder will look to find either a lottery, or future lottery team, that either overvalues itself or is desperate financially and trade for someone in the 5-7 million dollar range, who comes off the books in 2013, (aka the year before harden and ibaka get paid) in exchange for a first round pick. The thunder would then be able to use the cap space they have cleared to pick up a free agent or two for the playoffs or do an Eric maynor type deal where they use their cap flexibility to take on an expiring contract in exchange for something of value, or a pick.
Also since the new CBA is expected to have greater trade flexibility then the last one all this would theoretically be possible by only trading nate robinson. but assuming the trade rules are the same, then the thunder would only need to add royal Ivey or Byron to the mix here are some possible trade targets,
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja Agree that this is how the provision could benefit the Thunder.
I'd say Orlando is going to benefit from the amnesty clause far more than the other teams you mentioned. Gil Arenas could be cut and 61 million comes off the cap. If the Wizards cut Rashard, 40 mill comes off the cap.
No way Miami, the Fakers go near that. Maybe Portland if they cut Roy, but I'm not sure they are there yet ideally.
@Joe_ I think where all 3 panelists are going is not who will get out from the most financial burden, but who is able to position themselves for a championship run via use of the amnesty clause.
I really like the idea of this 3-on-3 discussion here, Royce. Looking forward to many more of them! And as an aside, would you be open to DT posed questions in future editions?
The first 2 questions seem like they're dead obvious because we have Sam Presti. I'd not really considered who gets the most out of the Amnesty from a "how does this help us get to a championship" standpoint. Most of the Amnesty questions seem to be "Who gets out from stupid contracts," so to see this question posed is an interesting sideview. The other question then is will someone amnesty themselves from a player only to resign them on incredibly low wages? Sort of (but not really) like what Sam Presti did for Nick? Or is that not going to be allowed under the proposed Amnesty Clause?
@ou_sas Absolutely. Any suggestions are great. I also hope to include commenters too in the future as the third mystery answerer.
@ou_sas "The other question then is will someone amnesty themselves from a player only to resign them on incredibly low wages?"
No, because you still have to pay that player whatever is left on their contract. Unless what you mean by that is, will a team be willing to amnesty a player, pay him in full, then re-sign him at a LOWER cap number to help the team's overall cap figure. THAT, is in interesting question, but I could see only the really rich owners doing this since you're essentially paying a player twice. Certainly, that won't happen with OKC's ownership group.
@Daniel Hawaii That second part is what I was getting at. In an extreme case, though unlikely, could you have a scenario where the Heat Amnestied D.Wade and then resigned him to the veteran's minimum? Then you'd have all of his cap space freed up, but he would still be paid at Superstar status. I can't believe that you'd want to let that happen under the Spirit of the Amnesty clause, but, on the other hand, I don't see an intelligent GM like Pat Reilly (or heck! Sam Presti could do it with KD!), overlooking this as a possibility.