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For the Thunder, it’s all about winning and such and such, but if you’re like me, you have an eye turned to the box score every night. You’re looking at KD’s shooting percentage, Westbrook’s turnovers, Ibaka’s blocks, Perk’s rebounds and Royal Ivey’s HER (Handshake Efficiency Rating).
Russell Westbrook already put it simply when asked about his individual goals for the season. “Make my team win,” he said. But every player has a bar set for himself and if they don’t, the fans sure do. We have our own mini set of expectations outside of the win-loss column. We want our players to perform well, have good seasons and meet the bar set for success. So let’s go through this player-by-player and try and define a successful season.
COLE ALDRICH
MPG FG% RPG APG BPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 7.9 50.0 1.9 0.2 0.4 1.0
Projected 2011-12 Stats 12.5 55.0 3.5 0.2 0.8 3.5
I’m already on record saying that I think there’s potential that Aldrich edges out Nazr Mohammed at point this season in the rotation. The guy has potential to be an impact player on the defensive end and on the glass. His improvement is striking.
NICK COLLISON
MPG FG% APG RPG BPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 21.5 56.6 1.0 4.5 0.4 4.6
Projected 2011-12 Stats 22.0 58.0 0.9 4.3 0.4 5.1
For Collison, it doesn’t take much to feel like he had a good year. Take charges, grab loose balls, play tough defense and do the little things. His numbers truly do mean very little. A successful season for him is one in which we’re still talking about how he helps so much while doing so little in the box score.
DAEQUAN COOK
MPG FG% 3P% RPG APG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 13.9 43.6 42.2 1.7 0.5 5.6
Projected 2011-12 Stats 14.0 42.5 41.0 1.4 0.4 6.0
The Thunder made an investment in Cook. Paid him well to do one job. Being a 3-point specialist is kind of like being a kicker or a closer in baseball. You’ve got this job to do and everyone expects you to do it well. If you don’t, everyone is mad. It’s a difficult position to know you may play just eight minutes in a game, take three shots and everyone expects two of them to go in.
KEVIN DURANT
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 38.9 46.2 35.0 2.7 6.8 27.7
Projected 2011-12 Stats 37.9 47.8 37.5 3.4 6.5 28.9
KD is going to score his usual amount of points, getting a lot of them at the free throw line. But I’d definitely like to see Durant start to get close on a 50-40-90 season. I think he’s got it in him at some point. The assists are certainly something everyone wants to see go up, but even more efficient scoring is the primary wish for me.
JAMES HARDEN
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 26.7 43.6 34.9 2.1 3.1 12.2
Projected 2011-12 Stats 30.0 44.5 40.5 4.5 4.0 16.5
Those successful numbers for Harden are close to what he averaged post-Jeff Green trade. And they’re every bit attainable for him this season. Maybe that’s even short-selling him a bit. Harden has a look in his eye that he’s going to be ultra aggressive at all times, which is a good thing.
LAZAR HAYWARD
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 10.0 35.7 28.3 0.7 1.7 3.8
Projected 2011-12 Stats 6.5 38.0 26.5 0.7 1.5 3.0
Something you can’t put in his numbers but that he needs to do: Hound KD like crazy in practice.
SERGE IBAKA
MPG FG% APG RPG BPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 27.0 54.3 0.3 7.6 2.4 9.9
Projected 2011-12 Stats 29.5 55.0 0.3 9.0 3.0 12.5
Like Harden, Ibaka’s numbers are close to after the trade. I think he’s a potential double-double threat, but there are nights Ibaka is either in foul trouble or Nick Collison is the better matchup so he only gets 18 minutes or something. He’s the fourth option on the floor if Harden’s starting, making it tough for him to get involved in the offense.
ROYAL IVEY
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 6.2 42.1 43.8 0.3 0.8 1.6
Projected 2011-12 Stats 3.0 42.5 40.0 0.3 0.5 1.0
I fully expect Ivey to have new handshakes for Christmas as well as a good bench celebration on made 3-pointers.
REGGIE JACKSON
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats* 34.1 50.3 42.0 4.5 4.3 18.2
Projected 2011-12 Stats 8.5 39.5 28.5 1.1 1.2 5.5
It’s so hard to judge what Jackson will, or should be. I think he’s got a lot of game. He looks smooth and confident with the ball and really appears to understand offense. But how you could you possibly take away minutes from Eric Maynor to play him?
ERIC MAYNOR
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 14.6 40.2 38.5 2.9 1.5 4.2
Projected 2011-12 Stats 16.0 41.5 37.0 3.3 1.4 4.8
Is there a better backup point guard in the league? If Chauncey Billups weren’t starting at 2-guard in L.A., probably him, but I think that title goes to Maynor now. He takes care of the ball, runs the offense quietly and does his job whether it’s for eight minutes or 20 minutes.
NAZR MOHAMMED
MPG FG% APG RPG BPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 17.1 52.2 0.3 4.9 0.7 7.1
Projected 2011-12 Stats 16.5 50.0 0.3 4.5 0.5 6.0
I’ve already said that I think Aldrich could take his spot, but one thing Mohammed has that Aldrich doesn’t is some offensive game. Mohammed can hit two or three jumpshots to really boost the second unit. If that has as much value to Scott Brooks as Aldrich’s defensive energy, things will probably stay the same.
KENDRICK PERKINS
MPG FG% APG RPG BPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 25.6 51.5 0.9 8.0 0.9 6.0
Projected 2011-12 Stats 28.5 54.0 0.9 8.0 1.4 8.5
I wanted to guess 30 ppg, 20 rpg and 10 bpg per game because that’s how I feel about Perk right now. But he averaged better than eight boards a game in the preseason in just around 20 minutes. He’s not an offensive weapon by any means, but he could get one of those trash double-doubles routinely where he’s putting back misses and finishing drop-offs from Westbrook.
THABO SEFOLOSHA
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 25.9 47.1 27.5 1.4 4.4 5.1
Projected 2011-12 Stats 22.0 44.5 30.5 1.1 4.0 5.0
Some are feeling like Thabo might have a little bit more offensive game in him this season. It looked like he was trying to be more assertive offensively in the preseason, but it’s in him too much to just play his role and defend. All I’d love to see is that 3-pointer hit with some consistency to where when he puts it up I’m saying, “Mayyyyybeeee?” and not, “NOOOOOOOOO!!!!”
RUSSELL WESTBROOK
MPG FG% 3P% APG RPG PPG
2010-11 Season Stats 34.7 44.2 33.0 8.2 4.6 21.9
Projected 2011-12 Stats 35.1 45.0 34.5 8.5 4.0 22.5
I don’t think last season was everything Westbrook’s capable of. I also don’t think it’s something he’ll do every season. My ideal season for Westbrook would be an added assist a game, fewer turnovers and higher efficiency scoring. Something like 19 ppg but on 14 shots. Those nights will happen. But Westbrook is built to attack and he’s going to have nights where he carries OKC and puts up 34 on 26 shots. It’s just how he does it.
This list has most of the backup PGs.
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&per_minute_base=36&type=advanced&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=N&year_min=2011&year_max=2011&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp&c1comp=lt&c1val=2000&c2stat=mp&c2comp=gt&c2val=1000&c3stat=ast_per_mp&c3comp=gt&c3val=3&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48
Maynor finishes 15th of 30 on WinShares per 48 minutes.
Maynor has mixed marks over his career on traditional Adusted Plus Minus and RAPM. Career best in the regular season, career worst in the playoffs last season. If you value that metric.
This season is pretty much going to settle if he should be kept in that role or not. Of course when he is a RFA money and years will be issues affecting whether they really try to keep him or not.
Some bench guys will play 40 or less games, some will play less minutes than shown, some will do both.
Aldrich and Mohammed are competing for the same minutes. They each might get only half of what is shown or it might break more in one's favor early season, late then playoffs.Mohammed might get more nights off as the season progresses if Cole does ok. Cole will probably play more in the first half of games than 2nd halves.
Hayward and Ivey probably get half of what is shown unless there are significant injuries.
Other bench players probably just get a few minutes less.
Minutes are 15-20% too high, if you assumed everyone played all games. As a group the bench players may get 30% less minutes for the season than shown. I'd expect the starters to get an average of 140+ of the total 240 minutes per game for the season leaving only about 100 minutes for the bench. They are listed for about 130 here.
Wilbon is being an idiot again. He says that no one in the West can stop the Heat. His only reason for discounting the Thunder is because of the Westbrook-Durant feud BS. Then he spends 1/3 to 1/2 of the article saying that stability (i.e. roster) is the most important factor. It's amazing how not making any roster moves keeps you out of the news during roster moving season. The Thunder are the absolutely most stable team out there. Basically, in the end, the article was just Wilbon continuing his love affair with Rose.
Espn just posted a massive article on how much better the heat should be, and how they are working on creating a dynamic new offense. http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/7378111/nba-oregon-ducks-football-muse-erik-spoelstra-miami-heat
Yet Nobody is talking about how the heats biggest problems. that Wade is a rondo level 3pt shooter and that all the heats efficient offense comes from dunks in transition. Opportunities that won't be available in the playoffs. Also that they still cant defend the rim, against fast PGs
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja Transition game will also probably be a lot harder to base your scoring off of when you're on the 3rd of a back-to-back-to-back. I expect Wade to break down with some significant injury sometime this season. Then what kind of team do they have?
@yehoshuagardner@Sam Presti Trade Ninja w/o wade they have the '08 cavs....who won 60 games
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@yehoshuagardner didnt you say "par" was 33%? or is that the difference between par and par level? i bet you vote for mitt romney.
the heat were the 5th best defensive team in the league last year (how they achieved this without darko milicic god only knows), and they were 2nd in TS%. individual statistics mean a lot less than team statistics my dude. youve said all this stuff about ranking teams "if healthy" or whatever but have seemed to totally disregard the fact that haslem and miller were SUPPOSED to be the heat's 4th and 5th best players last year and were injured the entire season......
oh and i doubt lebron's drastic (sarcasm) increase of 2.1% from beyond the arc was the "main reason" the heat made the finals.
@yunghawg@yehoshuagardner The heat as a team shot below par which is 40% or 60%TS Wade has shot a rondoesque .292 for his career while he averaged .306 for the regular season. Lebron was PAR at .330 for the season. and his hot shooting .351 was the main reason miami went as far as it did in the playoffs. I have nothing Against Pat Riely or the Heat. I just think they are obviously flawed and shouldn't be favorites when they cant protect the rim or shoot 3's consistently.
Two things they will have failed to address during the offseason. If the Heatles had Invited Darko to be their Ringo instead of miller they would be NBA champs right now. But Unless Eddy Curry becomes that guy they have well known easily exploited flaws.
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@yehoshuagardner i didnt say they could win the 'ship w/o d wade, and i also didnt say anything about shooting "par level" from 3 (but the heat actually shot 549/1479 or 37% from 3 last year). obviously pat riley peed in your cheerios at some point in your past, but all ive been trying to say is the heat are definitely favorites to win it all for good reason. dont get me wrong, im a thunder season ticket holder and a huge fan, but the nba finals is the heat's to lose.
@yunghawg@yehoshuagardner last year the Spurs won 60+ games in the regular season and got killed in the first round. It seems like over a long regular season pace and effort will win you games as teams take nights off . however in the playoffs everyone tries hard(er) and you cant just out effort teams but you need to execute at a higher level. not being able to shoot at a par(.333) level from 3 is a problem.
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja the new rules for fould will hurt them as well
@f5alcon maybe, but do you think superstar calls will change all that much?
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja oh and lebron and wade arent switching off on 40 minute nights. if anything they will play less mpg in the regular season than they did last year
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@f5alcon 1. i read that article and laughed. yeah push the ball and create space for lebron, bosh, and wade. uhhh der!
2. if stevie wonderboy doesnt reunite with d'antoni in new york i would be shocked.
3. "if anyone can get eddy curry in shape" uhh does that mean get under 500 lbs? i think the "take up a lot of space in the middle" is more probable (and no that is not a compliment)
@f5alcon I actually like the depth miami has this year. Its not one of the best benches. but they have capable guys at most positions. I expect them to win a lot of regular season games. they could probably afford to alternate games playing lebron and wade 40-45 mins each every second game. since what they bring to the team is almost interchangeable. But in the playoffs miami has serious weakness' assuming they make it there healthy.
Though what I'm secretly scared of is Nash ending up in Miami, apart from being exactly what they need at PG. He can run the break and fill in as a super steve kerr in triangle sets. If anyone can get Eddy Curry in shape its him.
A healthy Curry on Miami throughout the playoffs scares me. as he should still be able to score inside. if the heat ever need to slow it down, And he'll still take up a lot of space in the middle
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja no probably not for the most part, at least through watching our two games there were only a few less times, one was with dirk though.
That being said after reading the article, they are basically running a triangle offense that just does not focus on the post as much but the same basic movement concept. Which could be interesting, however while it can create mismatches on offense it takes away from the strength that lebron and wade have off the dribble, it is a ball movement offense and they still have issues at center and pg. I think the new offense will help them score more points but the extra movement will tire them out more in the compressed season.
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja Transition game will also probably be a lot harder to base your scoring off of when you're on the 3rd of a back-to-back-to-back. I expect Wade to break down with some significant injury sometime this season. Then what kind of team do they have?
@yehoshuagardner An Flawed one. last year the heat were the 4th best team in the NBA after Dallas, OKC and a healthy Memphis, And a horrible matchup against the Knicks, who would have beaten miami in the first round last year had they played NY instead of boston.
@yunghawg@f5alcon Great Convo. I definitely Agree to disagree.
My main player ranking/liking flaws are feeling that the best guys on bad teams deserve more credit then they normally get. Overrating shooting and blocks, and disliking pfs who only rebound and score. eg Chris bosh,Kevin love Blake griffin kris humphries david lee, carlos boozer ect.
I also believe that chemistry is enhanced by fit and identity, and good chemistry can be more important then specific skills. when both teams are skilled. AKA the presti way
@f5alcon@Sam Presti Trade Ninja and f5alcon, the raptors made the playoffs in 2007 and 2008 actually. maybe you heard shaq say he never won a playoff series or something?
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@f5alcon 1. uhh the leaders in PER the last four years were lebron james, lebron james, lebron james, and oh yeah lebron james. a player must average 6.09 mpg to qualify. and john hollinger has said himself that PER's main flaw is overvaluing guys on bad teams that put up big numbers, but what does he know, he just created it.
2. last time i checked putting up one 30/30 game has nothing to do with how good of a basketball player you are (especially when it was for the t'wolves)
3. yes i do disagree with amare being the best pf (ill go with dirk) but theres about 5 guys or so you can make an argument for and amare is definitely one of them. i just thought your ranking of pf's numbered 1-10 was your real top 10 list. my apologies.
4. i have never said anything about haslem's or miller's PER stats so i dont know what youre wanting me to refer to from point 1. yes they are bench players but starting doesnt matter as much as finishing a game (i.e. james harden and jason terry dont start). when riley put together this team he envisioned finishing games with james, wade, miller, haslem, and bosh.
5. obviously i cannot compete with impressive arguments such as "the media acts" and "i feel" so i guess i will just agree to disagree?
@f5alcon@yunghawg few thoughts on your points.
1. I feel that PER's main flaw is that it overvalues guys who hit open 3's and 6'9 PF's who score and rebound but do little else. A few years ago a thunder reserve shooting guard led the league with a 30+ PER and he's not on the roster anymore
2.For Guys who put up numbers on bad teams i prefer the eye test. as opposed to statistics. because the fact that their team sucks lowers their other advanced stats like plus minus, Wins added ect. when its clearly not their fault. most of the time its about pieces not fitting together then the players sucking Last time i checked bosh never had a 30/30 game in toronto.
3. I think Amare has the title of best PF in the world. something I'm pretty sure you will disagree with. but i am open to it being someone else this year.
4. refer to point 1 on miller and haslem. both are bench guys with a role on a championship team. If they are starting at C and PG you have problems.
Also on Bosh. the media act like he's an all star aka top 25 guy. i feel like he is in the 45-55 range, which averaged makes him about 50th
@yunghawg@Sam Presti Trade Ninja there is always shaq's reason for why bosh isnt that good, he never made the playoffs when he was the main star in toronto,
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja 1. actually PER's main flaw is giving more credit to guys on bad teams that get ridiculous stats (see: Love, Kevin) and not giving enough credit to guys on good teams who are the 3rd or worse option on their team and therefore dont get used as much as they would on a worse team (see: Bosh, Chris). in the 09-10 season bosh was 4th in PER (when he was the #1 option)
2. if you think kevin love is the best power forward in the world you are a crazy man.
3. by even your own somewhat skewed standards (IMO), even you just admitted chris bosh IS a top 50 player (i still cant believe you even considered he wasnt).
4. yes, only 1 player can have the ball at any given time. sources say Dr. Naismith made this a key part of the game.
5. yes a healthy memphis beat the heat w/o theyre 4th and 5th best players.
6. i will definitely agree dallas was a terrible matchup for the heat last year. although i will also say the heat should be better this year and the mavs should be worse.
@yunghawg On the wade thing. Only 1 player can have the ball at any given time. either Lebron or Wade. if carmelo and the knicks SG's combined usage rate is similar to that of lebron and wade. the the knicks will likely win given that Carmello and a .40 3pt shooter will play at a higher efficiancy then lebron and wade jacking long jumpers and shooting free throws.
Also the post trade thunder and knicks both beat miami in miami. Memphis Beat the heat with Rudy Gay. and Dallas beat them twice in the regular season and in the NBA Finals. Thats why i think the heat shouldn't be favorites.
@yunghawg Having bosh top 50 wasn't meant to be an insult. When i rank players i tend to do it by "traditional positions" so top 5 makes you the best guy at your position top 15 best 3 ect. so 50th makes bosh you the 10/11th best PF in the league. I also believe PER over values certain positions. especially PFs who play score and rebound. and do little else. Also PF is a stacked position right now.
According to Hollinger (PER) bosh was the 12th best PF I would take MIllsap, Garnett and Odom off that list and add Al Horford who does a fine job playing out of position for the hawks.
PF's i would have over bosh
1.Kevin Love 2 Pau Gasol 3. Dirk 4. amare 5 Randolph 6 aldridge 7 griffin 8 Horford 9 West 10 Bosh.
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@yehoshuagardner if your a believer of john hollinger's PER chris bosh was the 33rd best player in the nba last year
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@yehoshuagardner and d wade wouldve definitely fallen into a deep coma. one more thing that is easy to type but harder to back up - name 50 NBA players you would rather have than chris bosh. again its easy to bash on him, but the dude's got skills
@yunghawg@yehoshuagardner Yes. Carmelo Anthony has generally won the head to head battles with Lebron despite being on worse teams. For some reason he can take him 1 on 1. also amare is better then bosh.
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@yehoshuagardner uhh so the knicks are worse than the heat but the knicks wouldve beaten the heat?
@yunghawg@yehoshuagardner i had them at 4th in my personal rankings. behind 1.memphis 2. dallas. 3. okc if healthy.
I like lebron and wade's games and think they are the best all round SG and SF in the nba, However i think that their games overlap too much. The fact that neither is a great 3pt shooter is a problem, and when you combine them with bosh someone who might not be a top 50 guy.(top 10 PF) who's primary skills they duplicate (scoring and rebounding).
when you are a three man team, and your 3 best guys duplicate most of the same skils i think you have a problem. As dallas proved in the finals
@Sam Presti Trade Ninja@yehoshuagardner eeeeasy sparky.... so the heat were the 5th best team in the nba last year? me thinks not. its easy to bash on the heat but the bottom line is they have 2 of the top 5 players in the league, didnt have their 4th and 5th best players for basically the whole season.....and were two wins away from winning it all. a full season with mike miller and udonis haslem (or at least most of the season) and theyre the best team in the NBA.
Wilbon is being an idiot again. He says that no one in the West can stop the Heat. His only reason for discounting the Thunder is because of the Westbrook-Durant feud BS. Then he spends 1/3 to 1/2 of the article saying that stability (i.e. roster) is the most important factor. It's amazing how not making any roster moves keeps you out of the news during roster moving season. The Thunder are the absolutely most stable team out there. Basically, in the end, the article was just Wilbon continuing his love affair with Rose.
@yehoshuagardner Wilbon on WISHES there was a feud between KD and Russ because that might be the only thing that could slow the Thunder down. Seriously, if there was any kind of rift between the two, wouldn't we have been looking at trading for CP3 when he was available? But we weren't interested. That tells me that nobody involved thinks there's a problem.
oops...that should have been "only wishes"
@yehoshuagardner yeah there is no feud between durant and westbrook. besides the fact that the lakers won 3 titles with the shaq kobe feud. I hope dallas beats the heat opening night. unfortunatly the heat have an easy early season schedule.
I'd like KD to continue to develop some more of that 4th quarter/OT mojo that he started to display during the playoffs. We all remember game 5 of Denver. More of that, please.
I just want Westbrook to slow down a little. I know that its not like him but I really think he would do better.
@dianeb33 westbrook's insane pace and athleticism made him all-nba... ill take seconds of that please
When Thabo shoots i always think hes going to make it cuz hes so wide open. i just pray his defense can return to its form of two years ago.#unleashthebeard
@THUNDERCATS do what i do and everytime he shoots assume he is going to miss and then when he makes it you are all happy.
@f5alcon @THUNDERCATS I didn't get to see him in the first pre-season game, but I liked the way Thabo was moving on offense in Tuesday's game. He wasn't just parked out in a corner, waiting to shoot a 3. Even if he never gets a shot off, at least he's distracting his defender more...and I think that's a good thing. Last year, it felt like there were too many times when defenders would just glance over every 10-15 seconds at Thabo in the corner and say, "Yep...he's still there." I also feel like sitting in the corner was hurting his shooting because he wasn't really in the flow of the game, ya know?
@TaoMaas@f5alcon@THUNDERCATS i felt the same thing taomass. i wish he implemented more of a tony allen-type offensive game (diving to the basket 5 times per possession). although im sure he worked on his 3-ball all offseason so hopefully he can get to the 33% range (what can i say im a glass half full kinda guy)
@TaoMaas they are still leaving him alone giving them a free double team somewhere else, if he could make a shot or 2 early they might have to defend him, even if it is not a 3 if he gets it in the corner and drives that would be better, but i think that is more brooks coaching than thabo not wanting to do stuff, he shot decently well in europe.
Your PPG totals add up to the Thunder scoring 128.8 points per game... That would be impressive.
Are you assuming a bunch of injuries?
@DSMok1 Last years totals add up to 129 per game. Its cuz guys miss games and what not so the above stats aren't for each player playing a full slate of games this year.
@DSMok1 the minutes do not add up either i think, it is a few minutes too high
Just LOVE this team! Anybody else still gaga that we're talking basketball instead of lockout?
@ThunderChick2010:D
@Barry Amenema@ThunderChick2010 yeah i think everyone is happy except dan gilbert