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There’s a simple principle to any last second shot: It’s always a good shot when it goes in. Well, sort of. It can be a very bad shot — like KD’s game-winner last night against Dallas — but also be a great shot. Because look at what happened:
1) The Thunder got the ball to their best player with 1.4 seconds left
2) Durant got a pretty free, clean look at the basket
3) He made it
Considering the circumstances, I’d say Scott Brooks and his staff drew up a sufficient shot. Again, mainly because it went in. Had it not, the Thunder would be 3-1 and there would be a lot of griping about Brooks’ ability to dial up a good last second look.
Here is the main complaint: OKC was down one and for some reason drew up a play for a 27-foot 3-pointer. But here is the reality: The further out you go, the cleaner your look will get. With only 1.4 seconds left, the Thunder aren’t going to be able to get anything other than a catch and shoot.
But it really shouldn’t have ever come to that. If the Thunder had executed, KD wouldn’t have had to save everyone.
The possession before with the Thunder up two and about 20 seconds left, Durant isolated with Shawn Marion on him, trying to take a shot at the death of the shot clock. He settled for a contested jumper right inside the 3-point line. He clanged it, Serge Ibaka got a rebound but then missed two free throws after being foul. John Hollinger noticed it too:
In the big picture, late-game plays are a bit of a dilemma for the Thunder, because they have a great scorer who has trouble getting open. Isolating him 40 feet from the basket at least guarantees that Durant gets the ball and is the one taking the shot. It’s just rarely a good shot, even for him.
It really is a big question: Do you get the ball into Durant’s hands for that shot, which is what everyone begged for last season, or do you give it to Russell Westbrook with the expectation he’ll create something for either himself or someone else? (Or if you’re me, do you give it to James Harden and let him run screen-and-roll with KD or someone else? Yeah, that’s what I do.)
Brooks and company clearly tried to come up with an answer to these situations by the crunchtime play I broke down Thursday. It’s a simple design that gets Durant the ball in a much more work-able area. Instead of trying to take someone off the dribble or isolating 30 feet from the basket, KD has it 15 feet out with lots of options. The Thunder ran it once against Dallas in the last two minutes and Durant dropped a nice 12-foot jumper.
I asked both Brooks and KD about that play last night before the game and they both said they’ve been running it for a while, but did use it specifically against Memphis because it seemed to be working.
“It’s just a matter of me catching it at the right spot,” Durant said. “I’ve been watching film on how teams play me or how I need to get open. I’m just trying to be stronger to the ball and make a good move.”
Is it going to become the go-to play though? One that KD prefers to get when OKC needs a basket?
“Yeah I do, but teams are going to start play that play better though,” he said.
Brooks: “We want Kevin to catch the ball closer to that area. It’s not always easy because guys like to push and hold and shove you out … We’ve done it in the past, but we’re just getting better.”
You want to run it almost until it doesn’t work, but like KD said, teams adjust. They have advanced scouts. They’re aware of it. In the situation Hollinger is describing, OKC wanted to get a shot up at the end of the 24 to drain all the time possible. The pin-down play that OKC used so well against Memphis might not have done that.
If you recall though, the crunchtime play Hollinger wrote on has worked in the past. Durant hit a big jumper over Shane Battier against Memphis using it and one against Denver. The play is basically putting the ball in the hands of a guy that can make stupid shots.
Which is the same idea Brooks has in drawing up last night’s game-winner. Get the ball to KD and expect great things to happen.
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@deleted_1998213_Don'tStoptheSergeing it is a fair point if folks think i am making a lot of those small sample stats. honestly i don't give them a lot of weight at this point but I do feel like lookin around to find somethin to taste. maybe i am not wrapping them up with as much caveat andcaution as the past but i currently don't feel like doing that
Thanks for all the hard work, Crow
@Lambchop thanks, I was just lookin around for somethin' new to say and chew on
Collison's rebounding last season were career lows and this season his defensive rebounding is 40% lower and he has yet to grab a single offensive rebound.
in 3 games Mullens has gotten half as much run as he got all last season.
but they knew from practice he didnt deserve it. right...
they wanted him to be a traditional center., he wanted to shoot.
charlotte is letting him shoot and he is hitting 73% from 16-23 feet so far.
@Crow Oh come on...
@[censored] except for the end of the second line i just presented facts
i don't like giving up 1st rounders after a few hundred minutes of use
i would have preferred he got 500-1000 minutes more minutes of trial than he got in okc. i dont care a lot about the few last wins on a regular season win total, as long as you are in the playoff ranks
@[censored] mohammed perkins ibaka krstic could all have played a few minutes less per game on average especially against lottery teams and at home and green could have played a lot less
@[censored] i meant 500-1000 minutes more over his 2 seasons or a third if he had stayed for that chance
We've had this discussion in the past but I don't know how you can give minutes to all the players you feel should get them and still be a competitive, playoff team. 500 minutes is over 5 minutes a game over the course of a season, pretty significant to just throw someone in there for trial purposes.
Thunder with 3 players with a PER over 15- Durant, Harden and Cook and nobody else over 13. Westbrook 2nd lowest at under 8.5. Mohammed at under 4. Mullens, traded by Presti to Charlotte, at PER21.
@Crow We should trade Durant for Mullens
@HookemKD if you want to throw that stuff i am not going to respond further
@Crow Just go easy on the stats, we're 5-0 all that matters. If Mullens was on the team the best possible scenario is still that we're 5-0
Perkins at his highest FTA, FT%, Steal rates in at least 5 years but at highest foul rate and his lowest offensive and debounding rebounding rates by more than a 30% margin. Shooting very well inside and even from 10-15 feet though that has lead to shooting beyond 15 feet at almost twice his previously high rate. He has not made any beyond 15 feet yet.
i do find it disheartening that people would want to trade westbrook for rondo ~.~ . Russ is an emotional player and is ONLY 23. He has a lot of growing up to do. I rather like the polar opposites that russ and maynor bring to the team. Besides If we traded russ we would only have ONE (yes one) scoring threat in the starting line up * i dont see brooks starting harden, sorry* . We cannot rely on ibakas jumper or perkins to score, and sure as not thabo.
Ainge didnt want to trade Rondo before and probably doesnt now either. Presti didnt want to trade Westbrook before and is very unlikely to do so this season without a major problem / trade request from Russell so I don't think it should be a major bother.
People have different dispositions and styles and preferences about what they like to read and not read. It would be nice if everything that was written was something you wanted to read or I or anybody else wanted to read but that isn't going to be the case. So one either dwells on what you see that that you'd rather not or skip it or complain about it. I'd rather just skip past it and there is a lot I skip past.
If one likes talk of tattoos, twitter, shoes, t-shirts,uniforms, mancrush / fan boy gushing, promotion of the company line or excuses, glorification of often selfish offensive play and minimization of issues & problems, etc. there is plenty of that to read. Or not so much.
4 games of stats are called meaningless but 4-0 is really meaningful and impressive and basically the end of story? To each their own perspective.
@[censored] of course the stats and wins will get more meaningful but it all we have so far so i am just going with it
Four games of stats are not meaningless, but I think some may find issue with the lack of context that such a small sample is presented.
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you can if you want to and others will do what they want to
Rondo off to a great start on most things besides turnovers and team defense.
DO YOU REALIZE that even with these glaring crunchtime issues and a mediocre RW we are STILL undefeated and winning close, competitive games? RW needs to get in synch, Ibaka needs to get in the game and as a whole we need to get on the same beat, to be sure. But if sheer talent is able to get us these wins just IMAGINE what a high-efficiency thunder team could do this year.
@jb31 Yes they are undefeated. That is the primary goal.
But on basketballreference's Simple Rating System (using point differential and strength of schedule) they rank 8th. That isn't what they are going for any more.
@Crow@jb31 I heard Kobe Bryant and Michael Jordan say that if you aren't first on basketballreference's Simple Rating System then you should just forget it and go home.
@HookemKD@jb31 chirp chirp
@jb31 Thunder with the 7th best offensive efficiency and 16th best defensive efficiency so far. Those ranks are both slightly behind where they finished last season. But I guess their schedule currently rates as tough and tougher than last season.. Are they better? Too early to say.
somehow the Suns are 27th on offense and 9th on defense
Only Atlanta is top 5 on both offensive and defensive efficiency. Portland just miss. Orlando is top 10 on both. Denver is also that just barely and the Lakers just miss.
straight point differential puts them 11th
Another strength measure has the Thunder with the 7th best strength shown so far.
@jb31 Definitely. I am convinced that this teams best is better than any other team in the league's best. If they put a full game together they can beat anyone.
Did Perkins get rid of his twitter account? says his page don't exist.
only point guard i would trade RW for is rubio plus fillers
@beardjr i wouldn't trade RW but rondo would be a good fit for this team. cray passing an a viable third scoring option behind harden starting at 2 guard. or kyle lowry...
@jb31@beardjr face palm at both of you. when did rondo all of a sudden become this awesome fit for us? nobody was talking trade rw for rondo until 4 days ago. and rubio really? I'm impressed with him so far over all but you've got to be kidding me
@JimboSlice@jb31@beardjr Rondo get talked about a little last season here and there were rumors Presti asked for Rondo but Ainge said no when the Green / Krstic for Perkins deal went down.
champ with the weakest big man offense since Jordan era was the Pistons. Everybody else had a big man scorer better than pretty old version of Rasheed Wallace who was still better than anything the Thunder have. Lack of a strong offense big man is one of my main reservations about the Thunder's long run prospects.
Ibaka woke up last game but I doubt he is really this answer. Certainly not a run your offense thru him kind of guy.
Will probably have to be KD in effect. Maybe not officially at PF a lot but he is the team's Dirk.
@Crow Last playoff,Memphis and LA were top 2 teams in big men offense,but Dallas and we were winners.
I think a great defense big man like Chandler is very important for every team which want to win champion.But when you have KD/Russ or Lebron/Wade who can got 60pts one night,you dont need to add a player like Z-bo who is very expensive.
@shiki there are definitely different ways to win not just one way. but some ways are more likely than others.
we are not gonna add any expensive free agents i think no one is giving kd and harden enough credit for there scoring. also the addition of a true pg will open up the whole offense cp3 took a bunch of 2nd and 3rd tier players to playoffs. We just need to find a pg who knows how to run an offense russ does not understand how to.
@banker097 You or the media may say he's taking shots from KD, but I can't see many complaining about that. The point is to have a player with the ability to score in the post, not to have a post player who is the focal point of the offense. As pointed out, even Jordan had Horace Grant, who was a solid high post scorer, and Luc Longley was their 4th leading scorer at almost 10 a game. I'm not taking anything away from KD. He IS becoming unstoppable, but having someone with the ability to score in the post changes the offensive dynamic (really for perimeter players even moreso than anybody else). I love this team as is, but our two biggest next developmental steps to take and keep us over the top are 1) continuing to cut Thabo's minutes and use more capable players at the SG spot 2) Get a player with some offensive ability in the post. (This could be accomplished by KD, but only if we get more production from the other wing players).
3rd would likely be improve our coaching staff. Really, improving on Russ is probably our 4th most important dilemma.
@JimboSlice yeah the big man contribution can come from one or many, scoring or scoring and passing. but being very low in big man scoring and passing is something that is rare in a recent champ... without jordan-pippen
@JimboSlice All i need to say to answer that question is we have KD he is becoming unstoppable. When u have a player like him there is less need for a post scorer. Even if we had a post scorer we would say hes just takin shots from KD. Did MJ have a low post scorer?(NO) And last point we do have a good low post scorer its KD.
@banker097 You guys are missing Crow's point. It's not that we don't have a dominant big, it's that we don't have offensive production in general from the post position. Most winning teams do. It's not the teams with the MOST post production (as evidenced by Lakers/ Memphis last year), and yes good defensive bigs are very important (as evidenced by Mavs and Orlando before that), it's about having some reliable production in general. And all of these point guards who know how to run an offense you speak of, had production from their bigs.
CP3 had David West and (defensively) Chandler and Okafor
Rondo had KG and (defensively) Perkins and even Shaq (who that year led the playoffs in opponent post fg% allowed)
Lebron had Verajo and Ilgauskus in Cleveland and Bosh in Miami (and defensively Shaq, Anthony, and Haslem)
The point is there's a trend here of championship caliber teams having SOME scoring option at one of the post positions, because of how it ALLOWS you to set up the offense. The closer to the basket you can run your offense, the better shots you are going to get (from post AND perimeter players). No matter who we bring in to play point guard, we still will have that issue because of who our personnel is in the frontcourt.
@Crow 96-98 the Bulls didn't have a dominant big man whatsoever (as mentioned) because they had Jordan (greatest of all time). Pistons in 04, Celtics in 08 (Perk averaged 7 a game, undebatable), Mavs in 11 had no dominant post scorer. Outside of that you have Kobe (top 10 player all time) and Gasol, who in 09 beat the best big man in the game, and in 10 beat a duo of Perk and Wallace, neither of which a dominant scorer. The other titles are Duncan and Shaq (Duncan a top 10 player of all time, Shaq top 20 at least). From the past 15 years you don't NEED a dominant post man (it sure does help a lot), what you need is either:
A: A well executed offense minus post with great defense (04 Pistons, 08 Celtics)
B: A player who does things others can't (96-98 Bulls, 11 Mavericks, 12 Thunder)
C: A dominant post game with good guard play (09-10 Lakers, 06 Heat, 03-05-07 Spurs 00-02 Lakers)
D: An unreal post game so untouchable it isn't fair (99 Spurs)
@HookemKD@Crow I think beyond the issue of post scoring is the fact that the Thunder get so very little offensive contribution from the PF / C positions. Even the teams you listed with no post scorers had big men who did other things to contribute offensively. Garnett is one of the best high post bigs of all time, as was Horace Grant. The Mavs obviously had Dirk up front but also put Marion up there at PF for stretches. '04 Pistons had Rasheed who could at least shoot threes and could pass a little bit. Ibaka and Perkins are both poor offensive players right now, and there's not much behind them either. Perhaps playing KD more at PF in reserve lineups can counteract this a bit, but having so little offensive punch from two positions puts incredible stress on the wings to create offense.
@HookemKD@Crow@[censored] very little difference
@Crow@[censored] Wrong 2nd link sorry: http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=1&p1=duranke01&y1=2011&p2=piercpa01&y2=2000
@Crow@[censored] Except at 23 he's better than Paul Pierce has been and ever will be. To make it fair you can compare them in their fourth seasons in the NBA, when KD was 22 and PP was 24
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=duranke01&y1=2011&p2=piercpa01&y2=2000&p3=piercpa01&y3=2002
Pierce edges in assists and steals but Durant scores more with a better FG and FT %. Pierce is a better 3 shooter.
Compare them both at 22?
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=duranke01&y1=2011&p2=piercpa01&y2=2000&p3=piercpa01&y3=2002
KD by a mile.
@HookemKD@[censored] Durant is very similar to Paul Pierce at 23. http://bkref.com/tiny/7SZSG I threw in Bird just to see.
@Old Man Game@HookemKD watch how Durant gives russel five and then walks away looking mad... he thanks him postgame, but it still reminded me of some of the kobe shaq interactions from the laker days
@HookemKD If I watched that clip everyday for the rest of my left I'd never get tired of seeing it. So smooth.
@[censored]@Crow I just feel KD brings a dynamic to the offensive side of the ball that... well... no one has ever done before. There has never been a 6'11" small forward who shoots 3s, drives to the paint extremely effectively, is a 90% free throw shooter, is almost automatic inside 20 feet, is very quick with the ball, is becoming a good passer, and, well does stuff like this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F01wyNPaqkY
@HookemKD@Crow I guess it's a stretch to call Horace Grant one of the best high post bigs of all time but he was very good. Even Rodman was an underrated passer and of course dominated the offensive glass.