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With 10 games under their belt going into Tuesday’s game in Memphis, there’s enough of a sample size to have gotten a pretty good feel for how the Thunder has evolved as a team. The unfolding process of replacing Eric Maynor is obviously still mostly an unknown, but there has been enough time to see some trends, good and bad.
It’s too early to tell for sure whether the good trends will happily keep going or the disappointing ones will sadly continue. But there’s nothing wrong with being excited or annoyed with how things are shaking out. Let’s take a look.
Exciting things
– It may be far from a finished product, but the Thunder’s half court offense has really shown some promise. In particular, Sunday’s beat down of the Manu Ginobli-less Spurs featured ball movement that was as good or better than any game the Thunder has played. It’s strange that it came in the first game without Maynor, and against a savvy, veteran team that routinely seems to out-execute Oklahoma City, but it was incredibly encouraging. Nick Collison scored in double figures, and when that happens, you know the Thunder is moving the ball. He scores when someone makes the extra pass in response to an extra cut or a defensive mistake — except perhaps for his nice spin to the rim and kinda-soaring dunk on Sunday I SEE YOU NICK — so that’s a good barometer. Kendrick Perkins boasted about the combinations he’s been working on with Serge Ibaka. Maybe it’s contagious, because the most notable part of the Thunder’s new-found half court consistent competence is…
– Kevin Durant has really sharpened his passing and ball handling skills. And it has been beautiful to watch. The two most glaring things separating Durant and the guy who is undoubtedly the game’s best all-around player, LeBron James, is that last percentile of freak athleticism and passing. LeBron is simply the most fearsome specimen of combined size, athleticism and skill that sports has ever seen, period. You can talk about whatever rock-solid speed demon in the NFL or wherever else you want — none of them are 6-freaking-9. Durant is never going to be the runaway locomotive that LeBron is. But he could improve his passing, and he’s done that. The extra high-quality street ball he played over the summer and fall surely helped, but as much as anything it’s the hard work he puts in and being a basketball junkie who is always playing that means you knew he was going to develop his passing. And he has. It’s how you know that things like his post game and defense is going to continue to get better over time, too.
– Thabo Sefolosha is hitting the three. OK, so right now he only shoots about three 3-pointers over two games. But he’s hitting them at a 46 percent clip. Could this really, finally be the season when he consistently knocks down his open looks? If he finishes the season around 40 percent, that’s fantastic for the Thunder. That seems like it would probably be a stretch since he’s a career 31 percent shooter from behind the arc and shot worse last year, but it’s possible. Maybe playing as a go-to scoring option in Europe over the summer really helped his confidence as much as anything else. All I know is that for now, Sefolosha is knocking them down, and the Thunder is a more dangerous team when he does that.
– The team looks as close, invested and involved as they’ve ever been. Perkins was out of his seat more than once coaching up Jackson during his debut as Russell Westbrook’s full-time backup Sunday. Jackson ran over to the bench during a Harden free throw to check on something with Scott Brooks. Durant was out of his seat too, calling over Lazar Hayward to give pointers late in the same blowout. The pregame rituals are as complicated and enthusiastic as ever, and the genuine care everyone seems to show for one another is as apparent as ever. The young Thunder was one of the only teams in the league that could get better without big roster changes over the offseason, and that’s what happened. What’s going on with Oklahoma City’s team has managed to stay organic and authentic while the team’s standing only gets better. And that, amid the probably overstated storylines of internal strife before and during the season, is always good to see.
Annoying things
– KD still falls in love with the 3-pointer even when it’s not falling a little too much for me. Especially with his fine-tuned passing skills and ability to get into the lane, it seems like a waste when Durant settles for the long jumpers when they aren’t working. Durant is a scorer, not a shooter, so it’s not necessary to keep chucking if the first three don’t fall like it is for a guy like Daequan Cook. Durant has too many arrows in his quiver to stick with jumpers that aren’t going in. To Durant’s credit, that has only been an issue twice so far. He’s shooting 39 percent so far on 3-pointers, slightly better than his career average. But though he’s only shot more than five 3-pointers three times in 10 games, he went 1-8 in a closer-than-it-needed-to-be win at Houston and 2-7 in the home loss to Portland. When it’s not falling, it’s frustrating to see him keep shooting instead of trying one of the many other things he’s good at.
– Westbrook hasn’t been able to play complete games on a consistent basis. But I just can’t see it being a season-long trend. He was too good the last two years to think that he won’t play to the level he’s shown he can as the season unfolds. I think the key is getting back into that mode where he spends the whole first quarter setting up his teammates. Some of his better games are the ones where you check the stats after the first quarter and see he had six assists. He may only finish with nine or 10, but that good start opens things up for him later in the game and takes pressure off his shoulders. It’s easier to pick his spots. Westbrook’s best sequences, in particular the spurts against Dallas at home and at Houston, have been fantastic. But he’s just pressing a little too much. Maybe it’s the contract negotiations, maybe it’s just taking awhile to get his rhythm. It will change.
– There are enough defensive lapses and brain cramps to make you worry just a little bit. A play Sunday night where no one bothered to man up Tim Duncan in the half court comes to mind — you might want to keep a body on the first-ballot Hall of Famer at all times. By the best single raw defensive team statistic there is — points allowed per game — Oklahoma City, at 97 points per game, is a disappointing 26th in the NBA. I swear, every time somebody has a wide open look, or a Thunder player gets caught needlessly cheating to help on a well-covered player while leaving his own man open, I die a little inside. It’s the single most annoying thing to watch in my mind. And it’s still happening just a little too often. Let’s hope that ends before spring.
You are correct in the defense part. We don't have much of a problem with offense anymore.
The ball distribution is amazing compared to last year. KD feeding Perk on a pocket pass. Would that have happened last year? Perk is playing great on the offense if you watch the screens. Collison and Harden are killing it as well.
I knew it was going to be different when I saw Perk get a fast break and beat everyone to the basket for a dunk a few games back.
Our defense is now insanely improved. We are finally starting to get the rebounding that we need. The bigs are boxing out very well.
Aldrich's Faux-hawk....an exciting thing or an annoying thing? Looks like he's trying to grow a beard, too, so maybe he's just channeling his "inner-Harden". lol
@TaoMaas He looks like he should have been in one of those scenes with Rooney Mara in The Girl With the Dragon Tatoo. I think that's the look he's going for.
I think it would be cool if everyone took on the Harden look.
@TaoMaas Doesn't everyone want to channel their "inner-Harden"?
yea our team does a lot of cheating and nailbiting we gotta stop that quickly
cheating? like wearing a wig and playing for the shock? @Lost Ones
YEeeeeaaaaHHHH!!! Props to Sef. As a thunder fan. I want our players to succeed.
I've always complained about Brooks rotations, but I like what he did against Houston in the 2nd half. Russ was playing well, so he sent KD to the bench early and left Russ on the floor for the last few minutes of the 3rd quarter. This left Russ and JH on the floor together without KD. It was very successful. I think that might be a great strategy, similar to what Dallas does with Dirk. Take out KD around the 5 min mark of the 1st and 3rd Qs and put him back in to start the 2nd and 4th. KD gets more burn against backup 3's and Russ gets a good 8-12 minutes on the floor with just him and The Beard as offensive options. I like it a lot. It also puts Reggie Jackson on the floor with JH and KD for his backup minutes.
@kfmsooner Agree. It seems like whenever Durant has been out/injured, that Russ seems to still perform adequately. Usually Russ comes out before KD in the 1st/3rd, but end up coming back in together. I'm interested to see Russ's differentials over this and last season with and without KD.
The help D and switching is just waay to lose and lazy. If Russ gets picked he just stops about 80% of the time which obviously leaves somebody open either the pickers man or the man whos guy switched to help the pickers man. Our screen defense HAS to tighten up. We are also not blocking out well. All of that is effort and is easily correctable. The dangerous thing is though that it should be there more than it's not and it's really just not. We are flat out not playing smart or hard enough on defense.
@okcjim I think the thing that would help our defense more than anything is to play several close games. We've been so far ahead in half the games we've played so far that we haven't needed great defense to win the game. If you can win the game with average defense, and you as a player know this, your human nature is going to play average defense.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct@okcjim That's a great point, Jax. I can attest just from playing in pickup games at the gym. Without fail, if a team is blowing another team out, say 11-2, and you're going to 15, the defense gets lazy and the score ends up being closer than it needs to be, something like 15-9, when it could have easily ended at 15-4.
@TempBoy Brandon@Jax Raging Bile Duct@okcjim Great point, it also results in lazy offense
@Jax Raging Bile Duct@okcjim Agreed. The best way to learn stiffling defense is to play it, and if there's no impetus to play it and you're still blowing teams out, why do it?
@ou_sas@Jax Raging Bile Duct@okcjim Because that flys during the 1st 7 games but not in the playoffs.
@okcjim I don't think "all of that is effort" is entirely fair. The help-D and switching is something that requires chemistry and experience with your teammates in addition to effort and I'd wager our defensive prowess will improve as the season wears on. I mean, we're 2 1/2 weeks into the season after a week of preseason on this shortened schedule. How long do training camps + preseason normally last?
I'd say Perk's ability to move his feet and move quicker defensively is an exciting development, as is his occasional face-up 12-15 foot jumper....but his new-found habit of posting up, getting the ball, and then never kicking it back out is definitely annoying.
Agreed. I've seen him put up a couple of bricks and at other times turn it over because he didn't keep an eye on the double-team coming. If he wants the ball in the low post he should try get position lower and closer to the basket rather than slowly backing down his defender. He also needs to be more careful with setting picks, I've seen him called for multiple offensive fouls while setting screens for the guards and KD. Otherwise, he's doing very well. Defensively he's doing a stellar job. @courtsense
If this is an honest evaluation of the first 10 games, the team's lackluster and lazy defensive rotations are probably tops on my list. Also, James Harden is an exciting thing.
KD should shoot the open 3 every time it's available, no matter how cold he's been in the game.
@SammyThunderer I can live with KD's 3's if he's already made an effort to get to the rim and/or the foul line, and is utilizing his devastating midrange game. It's when he doesn't make that effort, or is in the midst of an 0-fer streak and then settles for the quick/careless 3's that I get frustrated with him. I'd cut him more slack on the offensive end if he made a more consistent effort to defend and rebound.
@SammyThunderer Couldn't disagree more. His tendency to settle for easy 3's rather than working harder to find other ways to score only hurts the team, and unless he's already hot, that's what carelessly jacking 3's really is - settling for something that hurts.
@courtsense An open spot up three is an open spot up three and I'll take the long body of evidence that KD can make those shots often enough to benefit the team over a string of however many bricks he's tossed up in the game.
@TaoMaas@SammyThunderer
I don't want Russ shooting 3's until he can knock it down more consistantly. Plenty games opposing teams give Russ the open perimeter shot in the half court only because he causes no threat there.
@SammyThunderer@TaoMaas They were just measuring expected value for the 1 point, 2 point and 3 point shots.
@TaoMaas There's a world of difference between a pass leading to an open Kevin Durant on the perimeter (which is the only kind of 3 I'm talking about) and a pull up 18 footer.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct@TaoMaas I'd think it'd be next to the dunk, no?
@TaoMaas@SammyThunderer Any open 3 for KD is a good shot, but good shots don't always come from good offensive sets. The complaint about our offense comes from it's simplistic nature and heavy reliance ISOs that results in poor ball movement.
I need to find the blog post that was referenced in the True Hoop network a while back, probably 2 years ago, that talked about the Magic's strategy of taking so many 3 pointers. It took a good statistical look at PPP (Points Per Possession) and Expected Point Value per shot, and the results basically said that if you are a 33% 3 point shooter or better you need to take every open 3 point shot that comes your way. This study even took into account the percentage of misses that were rebounded by the shooting team due to the longer rebound off a miss. It's the second most efficient shot in the NBA, next to the free throw.
@SammyThunderer So what do you want? Do you want to spread the floor on offense or do you want Russ and KD to keep jacking up 3's and just play the odds? We can't do both. That's been a major complaint about the Thunder's offense...that they take the first open look that comes along and don't really run any kind of real offensive scheme.
@SammyThunderer@courtsense He is hitting 3s at a 40% clip, that is eqivilent to hitting 2s at 60%. It is a good shot if he is open in the flow of the offense.
The heatcheck 3s are the ones we don't want him to take.
@TaoMaas This is a fallacy based on results-oriented thinking. If KD shoots 45% from 3 on every open spot up attempt (to pull a random number out of a hat), he should shoot it every such situation because that's a good efficient use of a possession. There will be times when he misses five times in a row because that's just how probability works. On such occasions, just because he has other weapons at his disposal doesn't mean he should pass up a high efficiency shot the next time he finds himself in the same situation.
@SammyThunderer Sure, KD can knock down an open 3, but we spend a lot of time griping about the lack of offensive ball movement on this board and too often KD's 3's are a "one and done" trip down the floor. If they're falling, that's great. If they're not, we need to try something else, then come back to the 3's later.
@SammyThunderer No he shouldn't, KD is a great player, but not an elite 3 pt shooter. He definitely gets 3 pt happy too often. Even KD is subject to the rhythm and tone of the game.
@Struts10 Let me rephrase. I'm not a huge fan of pull up threes, but if the ball is kicked out to an open Durant on the perimeter, that's a really high efficiency shot no matter how he's played the rest of the game.