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After the Thunder started 5-0, there was a lot of nodding going on. Kevin Durant was kicking off an MVP campaign with style, the defense looked solid behind a re-made Kendrick Perkins and Oklahoma City was taking care of business against good teams like Orlando, Dallas and Memphis.
All that preseason hype and buzz was looking like it might have been justified. Validated. The Thunder looked good.
But after back-to-back losses, something the Thunder had happen only five times all of last season, there are a few mild concerns. Stress the word “mild” there. Durant was asked after the loss to Portland if there’s a new sense of urgency because of a second straight loss and he said, “What, you think we’re panicking? It’s been seven games man.” And he’s completely right.
The question is though, what changed? What was different between the five wins and the two losses. Because not only did the Thunder lose, they didn’t really look a whole lot like themselves.
Let’s break it down just with the numbers. Two things really stand out to me:
1) Free throw shooting
2) 3-point shooting
There are a lot of other things like opposing shooting percentage but in the two losses, scoring in the second half seemed to be the biggest issue. In the five wins, OKC averaged 29 free throws a game and 23.6 makes. In the two losses, it was 23.5 attempts and 18 makes. That’s a little more than seven points a game.
In the five wins, OKC made an average of eight 3-pointers a game on 19.2 attempts. In the two losses, it was five 3s a game on 19.5 attempts. Same number of attempts, just fewer makes. Part of that might have to do with Daequan Cook missing the Dallas game and being a bit under the weather in the Portland game. But it also has something to do with KD who was 11-22 from deep in the first five and just 4-13 the last two. Durant took eight free throws a game in the first five games and just 5.5 the last two. Clear differences.
Other than that, there really aren’t glaring differences. Opposing field goal percentage has been pretty consistent as well as the Thunder’s shooting overall percentage. Rebounding has been average throughout. The Thunder have turned the ball over a lot in wins and losses. They’ve gotten to the rim in both wins and the losses (except for the Memphis game where they took just 10 shots at the rim).
It just comes back to how OKC can struggle to find points sometimes. Last season the Thunder started the season well despite playing kind of terrible offense. They survived at the free throw line. I wouldn’t say OKC “survived” at the line in the five wins by any stretch, but it’s kind of the fallback plan if the offense stinks. And the offense often stinks if KD isn’t do his normal amazing thing where he makes incredible shots or Russell Westbrook isn’t taking over a game.
You’d like to be one of those teams that can just rely on your defense to win games in those situations, but that’s not how the Thunder have been. The Thunder are an average defensive team, but one with potential to be a really good one.
I do think fatigue played a little factor in the last two games though. The Thunder were the fastest team to play seven games this year and had to play seven games in 10 days. They had to deal with a controversy, had to deal with their second best player not playing all that well and had to deal with two pretty darn good teams on back-to-back nights.
In reality, the Thunder probably didn’t deserve to be 5-0, but just got bailed out a couple times because they’ve got one of the three best players in basketball. Sometimes that’s all it takes though.
But like Durant said, no reason to panic. Just reason to get better.
I think the flu has been a concern in the locker room. Cook with it, Thabo going through it, and Harden mentioned the other day have to take some NyQuil. I bet it's effecting everyone's energy out there.
Thabo is still questionable. WTFreak is it malaria or something. Somebody make him some chicken soup.
I didn't check stat but I think Harden gets about 6 rebs and is our 2nd or 3rd best.We are always a strange team that every starter has similar number rebounds(Harden is not starter but he plays 30 mins which is more than Thabo).I dont know whether it means we get rebound by talent more than by teamwork
For those who watched the Por-OKC game and have seen portland this year, is portland better than us? If so, why? If not, why not?
@Thunder S As a counterpoint to Portland's early success, they are playing their stars, particularly Aldridge, more minutes than most teams right now. Hollinger had an article on this earlier in the week where he questioned what effect these high minute averages are going to have over the course of such a compressed schedule. It will be interesting to see if Portland can sustain this success and playstyle without exhausting their players.
@Thunder S Better ball movement, better rebounding, better coach(9/10 of NBA does have a better coach than us IMO), More scoring options.But i don't see Portland nor OKC coming out of the West this year.
@ILikePancakes@Thunder S I second everything Pancakes said, and would add this:
Blazers have a more balanced roster, with 3 quality guards (Felton, Crawford, Matthews), 2 quality wings (Wallace, Batoum), and 3 quality bigs (Aldridge, Camby, Thomas). Thunder do have 3 quality bigs who can defend the paint, which is great - but none of them are a threat on offense. OKC has 2 quality guards in Westbrook and Harden, and Cook is also a nice, if one-dimensional, piece. Neither Maynor nor Sefalosha are consistent enough to play in the closing minutes, which limits Brooks' options.
Portland is also better and more aggressive defensively, especially on the wings with Wallace and Batoum. When Durant starts competing defensively like Wallace did on Kobe tonight, and rebounds with a purpose, then we can talk about KD being one of the Top 3 or 4 players in the league. Until then, KD is a just a super deluxe scorer - but he doesn't exert half the energy on D that guys like LeBron, Wade, Kobe, Howard, or even Wallace do, night in night out.
I still think OKC needs a trade before the playoffs to balance things out.
@courtsense@ILikePancakes@Thunder S Funny the games that Maynor closed last year we won. And Sef has been more consistent then Westbrook this year so far.
"Rebounding has been average throughout."
OKC is well below average rebounding this season...
@[censored] Yup, I have no numbers to back this up but it feels like we're giving up a ton of second-chance points and not getting any ourselves.
@Daniel Hawaii 22nd in ORB% and 23rd in DRB%
@Daniel Hawaii Well I think part of the problem is we're playing KD more at PF. And Serge has looked pretty weak boxing out and such. Perkins has been a slight disappointment here also.
@[censored] That is... not so good. I think KD needs to rebound more. 2 years ago, he averaged 7.6 rebs, last year it was down to 6.8, this year so far, it's 6.0. Maybe he thinks with Perk and Serge down low, he doesn't need to rebound. But he does.
over half of the west are essentially playing 11 man rotations (guys averaging over 10 minutes per game)
T-Mac has looked good this year. Small sample size, but wish we had of got him on a one year rental.
@Stringer Bell still haven't attracted a completely new free agent of note (beyond krstic). all guys traded for who stick around.
@Crow This is concerning.
I also feel that Sam Presti really doesn't look for players in FA, especially on a one year lone. He's all about continuity, that's fine but a player like T-Mac with this kind of schedule might have been great to have around as backup. Furthermore, he was the player most compared KD to coming out of College in terms of scoring. I know he's not as athletic as T-Mac but I'm sure KD could of learnt a thing or too. I think T-Mac's attitude has changed for the better since his fall from grace.Also, let me point out; it didn't have to be picking up T-Mac. There was several other players I thought might be a nice one year lone. Pietrus, AK47, Al thornton... all would be better then Lazar Hayward.
@Daniel Hawaii@Stringer Bell@Crow OKC is an unknown to NBA players from what I hear. Its about as attractive as Salt lake city, except because OKC is new to the nba, it doesnt have the history or places to hang known to nba players. Its attractive from an organizational standpoint, but thats kind of an overrated option when comparing to a chicago, or even an atlanta, which is a terrible organization, like say the clippers, but a city loved by nba players. As someone who grew up primarily in the city, even when I watch OKC games on tv, the commercials seem oddly different. As does the composition of the crowd at home games... I would move to OKC if say, me or my wife got a great job there, but maybe not if i was offered equally great jobs in OKC and say, Washington DC... Its not a knock on OKC, its just a random outsider observation.
@Crow It will be interesting to see if Presti decides to use the mid-level exception next year. Of course, that would make our cap figure increase by $5 million and definitely put us into future luxury tax territory with the assumption that Russ gets his extension and makes $15 million or so next season.
@Daniel Hawaii@Stringer Bell "Free agents aren't coming because Presti isn't looking." that is a large part of it.
but until somebody significant comes or even shows any clear interest in joining okc hard to say that it is completely about not looking.
@Stringer Bell yep.
hayward was picked for practice, for hustle, for defense, to be a 14th man. not really to challenge anyone for minutes.
@Stringer Bell@Crow Yeah, we haven't attracted free agents, but I think it's more because Sam Presti hasn't been looking to sign anybody. I'm sure if Presti made it known he was looking to offer the mid-level exception this year, we could've landed a Jamal Crawford or Rip Hamilton-type player.
Who wouldn't want to play in OKC for a couple of years? Great fan base, great teammates, brand spanking new practice facility, first-class organization, a players' coach in Scott Brooks and the chance to be on a team that could win a ring. Free agents aren't coming because Presti isn't looking.
the heat just ran a play id love to see the thunder run at the end of tight games: one that got them an open lay up
@RRRWHOAAAA i don't know if i'm thinking about the right one but that looked like the defense being a little slack and confused to me
10 teams have offensive and defensive efficencies better than league average and the thunder is not of them. the timberwolves are.
@Crow 5 teams have records above .700. And the Thunder is one of them =)
@HookemKD true for now. lets see where they are after next wednesday. have to go 4-1 to stay over .700. go 2-3 and they will slip below .600.
Only 5 offenses are as efficient so far this season as last season's league average. The Thunder just miss. Only 5 defenses have worse numbers than last season's average. The Thunder are about 1 pt better than that but the average defense this year is 4 pts better than last season.
Thunder 5th best at defending the 3 pt shot so far but unlucky with opponents hitting their FTs at a 80% clip or 4th best.
Thunder fouling 10% more than last season.
Thunder and Clippers are the only 2 teams above .500 and yet in bottom 10 on both offensive and defensive rebounding rates.
Maynor currently at career lows on FG%, assists, rebounds and turnovers.
Ibaka at career lows shooting and rebounding.
@Crow If his struggles continue for another month or so, I hope Scott Brooks would seriously consider moving Nick into the starting lineup and bringing Serge off the bench. I think that would alleviate some of the pressure Serge might be feeling as a full-time starter. We know what a spark plug Serge can be off the bench.
Plus, Ibaka and Harden coming off the bench together would be pretty nasty. And Nick would probably help the starting unit's half-court offense. It's worth a try if Ibaka continues to struggle as a starter.
@Daniel Hawaii@Crow this is a great idea, hopefully ibaka gets it together tho
I had a similar idea of when we get slow starts bring harden and collison in extremely early to get the ball movement, i swear collison and harden are always on the same page....except those times when they run into each other on screens lol
@Daniel Hawaii there are options if they care enough about starting unit performance but they never have cared that much about it and have never nailed that task
and 3 pt attempts
His assists per minute are up 60% though.
He is top10 in the league on offensive rating and PER and FTAs. an..
Harden has generally good stats but his 3 pt FG% has gone down every year (so far) as his attempts have gone up.
DJ White is top 10 in the league on offensive rating, eFG% and least turnovers. His rebound rate is not good but still right closely in between Ibaka and Perkins.
So is thabo playing tomorrow or what?
I do still hope they give Reggie and yes, even Lazar, another chance. I get the feeling neither one of them had a clue what they were doing out there. I mean you can't depend on everyone being healthy and if some dudes go down later in the season at a more crucial time we may need to rely on one or both of them.
@Old Man Game i'd give reggie some good runs soon. lazard i am not that interested in seeing play
@Old Man Game lazard's +/- is below -50 per 48 minutes so far
@Old Man Game jackson's isnt a lot better but i think they need him to develop more and he has far more potential.
ibaka's plus minus is the worst of any big minute player on the team
Only 4 teams have one just one guy averaging a rebound every 4 minutes. The Thunder is one of them and just barely... because of... Mohammed.
It way early and traditional adjusted +/- is not great on reliability but it has Westbrook estimated at the 10th lowest in the league on team impact and Maynor is 25th lowest.
Only three teams in the league have negative +/-s for their 2 most used lineups and the Thunder is one along with the Jazz and Wiz.
Only six of the 20 most used lineups in the league are negative and the Thunder have 2 of them.
Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka, Perkins with Thabo or Harden, the marqee part of the Presti building project , is -5 per 48 minutes either way and has cost the team about 2 pts per game.
The full bench 5 gets those 2 pts back and a tiny bit more.
The sum of all other lineups is neutral.
The team has from undefeated to winning by just over 1/2 pt per game.
I cant believe we even have to say things like "its not time to panic yet" only 7games into the season.... after winning 5 in a row... shhheeeeesh
Dallas is getting their booty spanked. Too bad we can't play the way SAS play right now.
@ILikePancakes Not watching the game so I can't see what's going on, but the score would indicate that SAS is playing stellar D.