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Why the structure of Westbrook’s deal is important

by Royce Young on January 19, 2012 at 4:06 pm 194 Comments

Why this video? Because.

Think about this for one second: Oklahoma City is guaranteed — barring an unforeseen trade — to at least have the pleasure of watching Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook through 2016. Durant signed a maximum deal with no opt-out clause that is in effect this season and Westbrook did the same today with no opt-out that takes effect next season keeping him in OKC through 2017.

That’s at least five years to make a legitimate title run, if not two, if not three, if not five. Put two top 15 players on the same team and you’re going to have something in place that’s able to contend.

But what separates a good team that can contend to a great team that can win is depth. Having those supplementary pieces around Option A and Option B. Right now, the Thunder have exactly that. James Harden is about as good a third wheel as there is in the league. Serge Ibaka is a blossoming power forward that knows his role and handles himself well. Kendrick Perkins, Nick Collison, Daequan Cook, Thabo Sefolosha — all ideal role players that do their jobs.

The issue all along with Westbrook’s deal was figuring out how to make sure you keep a 23-year-old superstar while also maintaining the flexibility to keep the other pieces. It was never of question if the Thunder should keep Westbrook, because that’s stupid. OF COURSE you do. That’s a no-brainer. Extending Westbrook wasn’t a tough decision. Despite all the nasty media criticism and fans barking about his decision-making, you keep a player like Russell Westbrook on your roster and you pay the number he wants to do it.

But in order for everything to work just right, the right number was important. Because while the Thunder would be a fine team with just Durant, Westbrook and some other veteran parts mixed in, they’re a title contender because of what’s already in place. And it needs to remain that way. That’s the organization’s main desire, the goal in mind.

So with Westbrook’s max extension — $80 million over five years — that puts some $175 million tied up over the next six between KD and Westbrook. For a small market franchise like Oklahoma City, that’s quite the commitment. And one that’s making Thunder fans a bit uneasy about the future of Harden and Ibaka.

But here’s the thing: Westbrook, whether he intentionally did it or not, pulled a very unselfish move. He potentially left money on the table and gave the Thunder much needed financial flexibility. Reports are that Westbrook did not push for the so-called “supermax” which allows a player to be designated a five-year, $94 million extension, if he meets certain criteria. Otherwise known as the “Rose Rule.” Durant already retroactively got that bump, which will pay him some $15 million more over the life of his deal and actually put the Thunder over the cap this season. That deal pays a player up to 30 percent of the team’s entire salary cap, not the standard 25 percent max deal. All Westbrook would’ve had to do this season to qualify is make another All-NBA team, which he’s likely to do (or win an MVP, which is unlikely).

Westbrook though, took the 25 percent max and locked in to that, according to multiple reports. Which is the difference of around $3 million a year. Which is very important. That little bit of cash could be the difference in the Thunder keeping Ibaka (or Harden) and not.

Part of that will depend on extraneous circumstances. Like if the Thunder remain profitable, where the luxury tax line fits and whether or not Clay Bennett might be willing to pay the more punitive penalty that kicks in two years from now. Even so, with $48 million committed to Westbrook, Durant, Perk, Collison and Thabo, it’s going to be dicey. Because that leaves Harden, Ibaka and Eric Maynor — three players the Thunder want to keep — left to be locked up with about $22 million, assuming the tax line is at $70 million, which it is right now. (Projections have it at possibly $76 million in 2014, when the more punitive tax kicks in, but that depends on league revenue growth. And if you’re wondering, the NBA’s salary cap is “soft” meaning you can break over it for different reasons, one being re-signing your own players.)

So let’s play with numbers: Harden, Ibaka and Maynor are eligible for extensions this summer, which would count against the cap starting in 2013-14 (when the next harsher tax starts). With $48 million for sure committed, let’s assume Harden gets a four-year, $48 million deal, about $12 million per. That puts OKC at $60 million. Ibaka could be tougher to measure. Some see him as a $10 million per year guy. I’m not sure yet. I could see Oklahoma City letting Ibaka go to restricted free agency to let the market determine that number. But if he’s at four years, $40 million, that would put OKC near the tax line with just seven guys under contract. Which almost assures the Thunder would break into the tax.

(An aside: You know what continues to be brilliant though? Nick Collison’s frontloaded contract. He’s only going to be making $2.5 million the last two years of his deal. If his contract had been standard, we might not be having this discussion at all.)

Now, Clay Bennett and company might totally be willing to pay the luxury tax in order to field a championship level team with all those pieces together for the long-term. But I wouldn’t bet on that.

The reality is with any team, that you can’t count on keeping everything. It’s about determining the most important parts, the guys vital to your championship chances and retaining those. Whether that’s Harden, Maynor, Ibaka or whatever, that’s the objective.

So you can see why even Westbrook leaving $2 or $3 million on the table could be crucial. The good news for Thunder fans is that this whole thing is in the hands of Sam Presti and his front office, who can absolutely know what they’re doing. There may be a tough choice between Harden and Ibaka at some point — which almost definitely would be Harden — but with Westbrook’s deal, I think it’s a certainty one of the two can be afforded. And maybe both.

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El Prez
El Prez 5pts

Royce, thank you for the excellent coverage of the Thunder. Always enjoy the read.

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Skip on FT this morning hates the signing and again says we had Chris Paul "on a silver platter" if we traded Russ for him. I'm sorry, CP3 is a great player and I'm grateful for what he did for OKC during his first two years here but I've moved on...Russell is the better player for this team, gives us a dynamic that can be matched by only Derrick Rose, you simply don't trade a guy with Westbrook's talent, size, and age. He's yet to even touch his prime (will be there in about two years) and there's no doubt by the looks of this contract, he knows he's not better than Rose and he wants to be here, he wants to play IN OKC and WITH Kevin Durant. I listened to his phone convo on the Animal yesterday and again, he showed no signs of this "monster" ego. He's a good kid, he's a fierce competitor, he's been very durable considering his very high USG and shows no signs of slowing down.

I know earlier in the year I entertained the idea of trading him for Rondo, then I saw what he DID to Rondo. Rondo of course has better PG skills but Russell just smokes him as a BB player, not even close....I would trade him for maybe two people on the planet, Rose and Howard. But personally, I'd rather not trade him at all and I'm glad we didn't.

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

@C-Wil If by silver platter he means, 'No promise of Paul signing long term, no expressed interest from the Hornets, and David Stern vetoing any trade that Dan Gilbert doesn't think is fair', then yes, the thunder had Paul on a silver platter.

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

@anonymous12345 For some reason, Skips words hold a lot of weight on ESPN and a ton of people take what he says to heart. We all know he's a big troll but still, there are radicals out there that take his opinions as fact. I think he's clueless on this Westbrook issue especially and yet he claims we will never win [it all] with Russ...and so will his millions of followers....sigh.

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts

@C-Wil The show NBC Sports Talk comes on at 5 central

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts

@C-Wil On Dish Network its 151, not sure about any other cable/sat provider. It used to be called Versus, until NBC was bought by Comcast and they decided to make a bigger push into cable sports to compete with ESPN and Fox.

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

@anonymous12345 What channel is that on anyway? Just curious.

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts

@C-Wil Yeah, thats his schtick. I don't think he believes the stuff he says himself, he's a step above a morning shock jock. Personally, I've enjoyed watching NBC Sports Talk on the the new nbc sports channel (formerly versus), they tend to have journalists come in and give their takes instead of tv commentators like Skip

TJ77
TJ77 5pts

It was unselfish on Russels part. he like the organization wants to win. I believe Harden and Ibaka do as well and will make small sacrifices in salary to do so with the Thunder, which is proving to be a great organization to play for.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

For those wondering about assists:

Russ is averaging 1.4 less assists on baskets at the rim this year. At 1.8, it's the lowest of his career. He's .7 lower from 16-23 feet . That's where the bulk of his assists average is lacking. He's back up in 8 range if those drops aren't there. There's no evidence that KD's passing is significantly affecting it Russ' totals, either. KD's assist gain has been marginal across all shots.

The drop at the rim is the biggest and most interesting to me. For obvious reasons, assisting shots at the rim typically make up the bulk of PG assists. Among point guards averaging 30+ minutes, Russ is 17th in that category, only ahead of Jennings, Collison, Evans, Holiday, Knight and Ridnour. The league average is 2.4.

In short, Russ is assisting easy baskets less.

Air Bud
Air Bud 5pts

@Jooseppi Yes one of the ESPN analysts made mention of the Westbrook assists being down. The reason it being difficult to get them on the interior because of the offensive inability of Perkins and Ibaka. Also went on to say that Perk and Ibaka are both bad at the pick and pop and pick and roll offense, which hurts Westrook assist numbers too.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

@Air Bud he still could get more assists if we ran a real offense, we are bottom 5 in the nba in assists as a team.

Erdeezet
Erdeezet 5pts

@Jooseppi For most of last season he had Nenad & Jeff to pass to, now there is Perk and Ibaka. Thats gotta account for some of it.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

@Erdeezet I'ts certainly part of it.

Aren't
Aren't 5pts

I have to say, I used to like Dirk Nowitzki, but he has become one of my least favorite players in the NBA. He's so painfully whiny.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

favors got tossed against the mavs cause dirk was being dipwad

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

So, off I go to Seattle . . . in my Thunder clothes. :)

courtsense
courtsense 5pts

@ThunderChick2010 Better bring your long underwear...it is freezing ass cold up here!

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

@ThunderChick2010 at least be nice not wear durant stuff.

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts

@f5alcon (bringing Russ, Nick, Perk, and Serge)

shiki
shiki 5pts

I just think height of starters is one reason for our poor defense rebound.KD is the tallest in starters and he is not always in paint to protect our rebs.Last game wizzard big men didnt get offense rebs directly but tip the ball out and made their small players to get them.

Old Man Game
Old Man Game 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@shiki Somebody just needed to put a body on McGee. He was wayyyy to comfortable under there playing volleyball.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

just put in my vote for the all star game... all thunder in the west.... even wrote in eric maynor

Grolgar
Grolgar 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Danny Ainge makes me appreciate Presti so much more. First, most of his moves have been tuurrrrible. Second, why would you publically state that you would break up the team?!? Even if you're going to do it shouldn't go public. What is the existing team supposed to think?!? He's a complete idiot.

sammasaaron
sammasaaron 5pts

@Grolgar Maybe he doesn't really understand what Ubuntu means?

TaoMaas
TaoMaas 5pts

@Grolgar Um...they might think, "Damn...I better try harder or I could be gone!" Ainge is only speaking the truth. The Celtics Big 3 only have to think another 2-3 years down the road. Ainge is looking farther than that.

ThunderWins
ThunderWins 5pts

@Grolgar I agree. I can't imagine you say anything about trading your starting players until you have a deal setup./

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

its obvious how much not having maynor hurts cook. he is a spot up shooter and reggie cannot find him in his spots

courtsense
courtsense 5pts

@RRRWHOAAAA It's not just Reggie...Cook's 3's are the result of ball rotation by everyone on that 2nd unit...so Harden, Nick, and Nazr all need to find Dequan in a better rhythm.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@courtsense Maynor was Mr. Rhythm

courtsense
courtsense 5pts

@RRRWHOAAAA Agreed.

Its Raining 3's
Its Raining 3's 5pts

@RRRWHOAAAA Its possible, but Cook was 2-9 from 3 in January before Maynor got hurt. But I'm sure Jackson's play is hurting Cook, Harden could still find him though, especially since he has the ball in his hands so much when Westbrook is out.

Old Man Game
Old Man Game 5pts

@Its Raining 3's I think teams are scouting Cook better and doing a better job keying on him when he's in there. I noticed last season that most of his makes were wide freaking open. When he was wide (and I mean like no one within 10 feet of him) open he is almost automatic. But even last year when a defender closed out hard on him he was terrible. You'd expect his percentage to drop but it was like it dropped off the map. If you watch him now opposing teams have figured this out and are just doing a much better job staying with him to where they can at least run at him when he squares up.

TaoMaas
TaoMaas 5pts

True, but if the defense is keeping Daequan in check, that means one less person on defense, hugging the paint. Whether he's hitting or not, that's what we want Daequan to do...spread the defense. I think that what we're seeing is the loss of Maynor. The 2nd team simply isn't able to take advantage of things the way they could last year. Still...I think by year's end, Reggie will show why we drafted him. Regardless of who's driving the bus...Harden, Collison, Nazr, and Daequan make a darned good 2nd team.

Its Raining 3's
Its Raining 3's 5pts

I never thought I would write this, but Thabo needs to be getting more minutes, he is playing fantastic defense and he is shooting well. He is only getting 20 minutes per game, and yet he is playing better than he did last year.

Daniel Hawaii
Daniel Hawaii 5pts

@Its Raining 3's How? Reduce Harden's minutes? Reduce Cook's minutes? Put KD at the 4 and go with more small ball?

TaoMaas
TaoMaas 5pts

@Daniel Hawaii Well...yeah...reduce Harden's minutes when needed. I think the Wizards game was a good example. Thabo was the only one who seemed to keep Young in check. Brooks waited too long to bring Thabo back in and I think the Thunder paid the price for it. If Thabo could have stopped Young from making one 3, that would have been the ballgame.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

@Daniel Hawaii@Its Raining 3's Haven't checked the numbers since the Wizards game, and I'm not even recalling if they used it, but the Westbrook-Harden-Sefo-Durant-Perkins lineup has been positive when used, iirc, despite an decrease in production from Durant.

Old Man Game
Old Man Game 5pts

NBA Playbook with a take on the game last night. http://nbaplaybook.com/2012/01/19/freedom-doesnt-work-for-thunder/

That feels beneath what I've come expect from that site. Instead of real insight and analysis that tells us something interesting as far as Xs and Os we get vague stuff like "until Westbrook develops that Chris Paul-like feel for managing a game" with no mention of what the other players were doing or not doing. They even acknowledge that the lack of leadership in the second unit is what really cost us the initial lead we had, but then they don't follow that thread to tell us anything worthwhile

sammasaaron
sammasaaron 5pts

@Old Man Game Probably because it wasn't Pruiti.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

eddie curry looks ok

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

http://bkref.com/tiny/nCQgb

Perkins is way behind his peers in DRB. Look at all the centers there with 20+ DRB. BYRON MULLENS has a higher DRB than Perkins at the moment.

courtsense
courtsense 5pts

@[censored] I think a lot of the time, the defensive rotations and switching leave Perk away from the basket, which is a scheme issue.

okcjim
okcjim 5pts

@courtsense @[censored] If you watch the Washigbton game most of the time they got an offensive rebound the Thunder Player was just standing right next to the Wash player and the Washington player just reached up and got the ball. Absolutely no effort by the Thunder player or players to block them out.

Old Man Game
Old Man Game 5pts

@[censored] This is probably crazy but if these rebounding issues continue I'd try giving Cole 3 to 5 non-garbage time minutes at some point. He can't do much worse and you never know how he might respond to getting an honest opportunity to show his stuff.

Thunder ATX
Thunder ATX 5pts

@Old Man Game@[censored] great idea.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

@Old Man Game@[censored] not crazy at all

rmpcsl
rmpcsl 5pts

@RRRWHOAAAA@Old Man Game@[censored]

I agree

Its Raining 3's
Its Raining 3's 5pts

@[censored] Yeah, he is way behind his historical averages, maybe he is still trying to figure out how to play without the extra weight? He should be able to jump higher and run faster than the last couple of years, it just doesn't make any sense.

Watson
Watson 5pts

@Its Raining 3's@[censored] Coaching? (or lack there of)

IAmTheReign
IAmTheReign 5pts

@Its Raining 3's@[censored] I can't count the number of times 2-4 thunder players allow 1 player on the other team to get the rebound. Or 2 of our guys fight for the rebound only to bobble it and give it away. Ibaka still can't catch a pass, and struggles to hold onto a rebound. Is stonehands contagious?

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

@Its Raining 3's Ibaka is worse on the boards too though. It's just weird.

Daniel Hawaii
Daniel Hawaii 5pts

@rmpcsl To answer your original question, Ibaka/Harden/Maynor's contract extensions come up next year.

okcjim
okcjim 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@[censored] @Its Raining 3's

They're just plain not blocking out half the time this year. We struggled with the pick and roll so much early maybe they focused on that a little too much. We blocked out much better last year though.

Thunder S
Thunder S 5pts

@[censored]@Its Raining 3's just guessing, but part of the rebounding numbers could be influenced by unpredictable shot selection on offense or them having to rotate to help often on point guards on defense.

rmpcsl
rmpcsl 5pts

@[censored]@Its Raining 3's

just a question when Ibaka/Harden are available for contract extension?

I mean the way Ibaka is playing the sooner the better (cheaper)

Trackbacks

  1. Clarifying some confusion on Westbrook’s contract | Daily Thunder.com says:
    January 20, 2012 at 3:36 pm

    [...] the stuff about Westbrook taking the 25 percent max instead of the 30 percent is correct. In a way, as I wrote yesterday, Westbrook potentially left money on the table. Which could be extremely important to the future of [...]

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