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First, I was pro start Thabo. Then I was pro start Harden. Now, I don’t know where I’m at. Scott Brooks does though. He’s never wavered. And maybe for good reason. Probably because he kind of knows what he’s doing.
Brooks made an interesting decision last night in Dallas. With Thabo out with a sore foot, Brooks decided to start Daequan Cook instead of Harden, something Brooks has never done. Basically, that decision there should really end most of what was left of the debate that Harden should start.
It started because of an awful performance against the Clippers, but it’s really a bit more of a deeper issue than just one game. As a starter over the past two seasons (seven games), Harden is averaging 12.1 points per game on 38.5 percent shooting with 8.1 attempts a game. Off the bench in that time (93 games), Harden is averaging 13.3 ppg on 44.7 shooting with 8.8 attempts a game. And take note of this two: Two of those games last season where Harden started, KD was out. Throw those out and Harden’s starting average dips to 10.0 ppg. Then when you subtract before the Thunder dealt Jeff Green, those numbers go up to better than 16 points a game off the bench. So there’s a clear contrast.
My feeling on why Harden should start was this in a nutshell: The Thunder were often finding themselves playing 4-on-5 on the offensive end as the opponent was able to hide a player on Thabo. Without an offensive threat to take a little pressure off Westbrook and Durant, the Thunder were left with three players on the floor that weren’t capable of really scoring or creating on their own. It was often putting the Thunder in a hole the first seven or eight minutes of a game. I saw it as, if Harden finishes games, why shouldn’t he start them? Well, I think we kind of got our answer to that and it lies within things you can’t quantify. Basketball players are often skiddish creatures, with Harden being a prime example. A lot of players need a certain rhythm, a certain established feel for each game. Harden is clearly one of those players. And when he starts with Westbrook and Durant, he essentially becomes an innocent bystander in the corner (i.e. Thabo Sefolosha) and never has the chance to settle into the flow of the game.
Take this into consideration too: Harden is averaging just 4.1 points per fourth quarter. That’s the time he spends most on the floor with Durant and Westbrook. The rest of the game he averages 11.4. Now, I realize four multiplied by four is 16, which is Harden’s average, but he does the majority of his scoring damage in the late first and early second when he has the floor to himself. Harden has had two scoreless fourth quarters this season, two with one point and three with just two points. Save for a couple blowouts where he got the fourth to himself with Durant and Westbrook sitting, Harden largely disappears scoring the ball late in games. It’s just a product of the system, but that’s obviously something Scott Brooks realizes.
Harden finds a rhythm immediately by becoming the alpha scorer when he’s on the floor with the second unit. A lot that can be pinned on Westbrook. Against the Clippers, it was all Westbrook and Durant as Harden was basically frozen out of the offense. Westbrook is a terrific scorer, but if Harden is going to be on the floor with him the first nine minutes, Westbrook has to sacrifice his own a bit and make sure the other four guys — or really two guys — are finding their rhythm. It’s not hard for KD to find his because he’s unbelievable, but Harden needs a bit more coddling.
Basketball is such a rhythm game. There’s a lot more to a guy playing well than just the fact he’s good. He has to feel his place, understand his role and pick his spots. That’s tough to do when you have two All-Stars on the floor with you that want the ball. In the fourth quarters, Harden switches his role to more of a playmaker and spot up shooter rather than scorer. It’s a rotation that has worked extremely well for Scott Brooks and you can see why he’s keen on it.
Because it really has a lot less to do with Thabo than it does with maximizing James Harden. Three scorers on the floor together is a difficult thing to manage. All three guys like the ball in their hands, all three guys like to score and are good at it. But it’s a challenge to maximize the potential of a guy when his possessions and chances are limited. So you can stick Harden out there because he’s one of the five best, or you can put him in a situation where he can flourish and do what he does best.
It’s not that Harden had some revelation against the Mavs coming off the bench and played out of his mind. He scored 10 points on just 3-11 shooting (but did have nine assists). But you could see he was more aggressive. He felt comfortable in that spot and looked like himself. Against the Clippers, he seemed to struggle understanding how he was supposed to fit. It was like watching a new kid walk up to a group of friends and try and wiggle into the conversation.
Brooks said just because Cook started in place of Harden against the Mavs that it wasn’t case closed. But without an extended training camp and without more preseason games to test it and without Eric Maynor there to stabilize the second unit, I doubt that Harden starts another game this season unless Westbrook or Durant miss a game.
It’s always been about the overall playing time, which Harden is seeing. But it’s also about maxing out his potential in those minutes, which might just be served with him coming off the bench. The Thunder are best when their three-headed monster starts breathing fire. And if that means holding one head back before Brooks releases The Harden, then that’s just what you do.
I think that Coach Brooks found the perfect solution when he started bringing Collison in at the same time Harden came in. That seemed to fix the problems of getting Harden involved in the offense alongside Russ and KD. So...if you're going to start Harden, should you start Nick, too? Eh...I don't know about that. I think Nick will do well wherever he's inserted into the line-up, but I think Serge would be less effective working with Nazr, as opposed to Perk.
Just like KD is an All-Star this is another no brainer. Harden is better suited as the bench leader. Especially with Maynor out for the season.
if you guys had to bet on us having the same roster when the playoffs start or having a change what side would you guys be on
@OBoy Same roster. I can't see Presti trading for anybody and we don't really have any assets anyway.
I know we're not in the bidding for him, and its not a "Presti move," but I would love to pick up K-Mart and cut Nazr. K-Mart would be great for the playoffs and his man defense is great. We would have K-Mart to stop quicker players that Perkins can't deal with. Perk struggled a bit against Memphis, if we went against Memphis with K-Mart and Collison playing major minutes against Gasol and Randolph I think we would see some good results.
@Stringer Bell I always hope we can sign him,but LAC give him 2.5M,can we give the same or more?
@shiki We really couldn't do more than sign him for the rest of the year. That's why it will never happen... or if we cut Nazr and just gave him his money... It still wouldn't work unless it was a one year rental.
We need all cap space for Harden and Serge next year.
Another short term reason to keep Harden on the bench is to help with Reggie's incorporation into the rotation. As he tries to build his confidence up as a point guard at this level, it's nice that he can use Harden as a security blanket, and defer to Harden running the point, then pick and choose his opportunities and build confidence without having to carry the entire burden from Maynor being gone.
Nuggets-Clippers tonight. I'm glad one of those teams will have another L in the loss column by the end of the night.
@Daniel Hawaii I hope its the Clippers
Well i won the totallly tickets contest last monday for tickets to tomorrows game, i do not need them and none of my friends are able to go, so if anybody wants them...
@f5alcon What's your info? I live two hours away and have been dying to go to a game this year but haven't been able to find a price I like. Thanks.
@shorthorns4@f5alcon If shorthorns can't go, I'll take em! :)
@f5alcon Haha I do, but my sister and bro in law are always looking for tickets, so any time someone is looking to give them away, I always try to hook them up.
@TempBoy Brandon i thought you had season tickets?
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@shorthorns4 i just sent them from my computer so should be attached
@shorthorns4 my phone is acting like jason terry, so i will do it when i get home in about an hour.
@shorthorns4 hmm, let me take a look, might have to wait until i get home and not do it through my phone
@f5alcon Thanks, I saw the e-mail but there was no attachment with it.
@shorthorns4 i just forwarded you the email from totally tickets
@shorthorns4 cool, ill send them to you tonight.
@f5alcon Email sent. Much thanks.
i know basketball isn't played in a vacuum, but I don't think there is anyway the clipps go for 71% from 3 in the first half if Thabo is playing. and this is it, i was pro harden starting because i believed he was a decent defender, but I was talking to Matt Moore on twitter and he pointed out that harden defensive PPP is worse than Amare's... not good.
I'm glad Thabo starts and that our organisation values defence, and as long as Harden is getting close to 30min a night, it doesn't really matter. Also it helps that Thabo is shooting 48% from three now... he is basically young shane battier.
And watching the last few games, it's clear Harden is much more comfortable coming off the bench ala Ginobli, and bringing that spark and scoring to turn games to our advantage.
our only real problem is ball movement between the three of them, imagine those three in a system set up by Pop or Rick Carsile
I think another question we should ask is whether Daequan should start even when Thabo is healthy.
If you think about it, Thabo is a more natural fit as a backup to KD at the 3.
Daequan in the starting 5 gives us a reliable 3-pt shooter (sorry Thabo) and as we saw last night, he's an underrated defender and an excellent rebounder.
I think starting Cook would be a good compromise.
@Daniel Hawaii not a consistent enough defender to start games. He hustles, but he wouldn't be able to make as much of an impact as Thabo. Plus, Thabo gets subbed out early and he and Daequan get minutes when KD sits. The thing is, if we had Thabo as KD's backup, there wouldn't be enough minutes allocated to him since we need him for a good 15 minutes a game to make a greater impact on teams with good perimeter players, which almost everyone has nowadays. Thabo starting is good because he makes it hard for great perimeter guys to start out well, which makes Harden's job easier when he has to guard them later.
@Daniel Hawaii I doubt Brooks would do that, but I do think that Cook earned himself more playing time last night.
No matter where you stand on Harden starting or not, fact is that the three of them (+ Westbrook, Durant) are going to have to learn to play together if this team is going to win a title. Even if he doesn't start, he's in there for crunch time, and that's when our offense starts to stink because Durant and Westbrook both think they're Magic Johnson with the ball.
@[censored] I think they'll work just fine because if Westbrook and Durant start missing shots, then Harden naturally steps up. He gets plenty of touches in crunch time, but for the most part, he is used to set up Westbrook and Durant for easy looks, which is just as important when they start missing because Harden is the best on our team at setting up guys for GOOD shots.
@[censored] that and the lack of ball movement/plays that are run...it always seems like down the stretch everything becomes ISO plays with no ball movement what so ever.
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@deleted_1998213_Don'tStoptheSergeing I think his hook looks awful, and the way he backs down opponents with the worlds hardest dribble is comical.It wouldnt be in my playbook...
@deleted_1998213_Don'tStoptheSergeing i still won't want him to touch the ball and turn it over 30 times out of a 100
@f5alcon@deleted_1998213_Don'tStoptheSergeing I haven't looked at his line from last night, but Perk looked much better to me last night. Also, part of me wonders if he lost that weight so he could guard Dirk. Ibaka certainly played better when he wasn't being drawn away from the paint to guard Dirk.
@f5alcon@deleted_1998213_Don'tStoptheSergeing yeah even if he can make 60% of those shots you have to factory in how many times hes going to turn it over or commit an offensive foul before he even gets a shot up
@f5alcon@deleted_1998213_Don'tStoptheSergeing factor in* .....dammit autocorrect
The key seems to be Harden playing alongside Collison. There's no doubt that Harden is the best distributor on the team. I personally think the issue needs to be dealt with and Harden needs to learn to play with the starting five because it's going to be needed down the stretch of games and into the playoffs this year. There's no excuse for the offensive execution to be so poor at the end of games. Last night was another great example. The Thunder had no answer to the zone, just happened to make some low percentage shots. I'm not sure what happened to getting Durant the ball at the top of the key and letting him work. That seemed to work at the beginning of the year.
@shorthorns4 Yeah. Ibaka and Perk aren't nearly as intelligent with the ball in their hands as Collison is. That's why Harden and Collison feed off of each other so much and Collison can almost always make that bounce pass along the baseline for Harden to get an easy layup. I don't think Harden will fit in with the starting five unless KD runs the pick and roll with Harden or if Ibaka and Perk suddenly decide to be good on offense.
I agree with about half of this article. I agree that Harden needs the ball in his hands to be effective, just like Russell. But I don't think KD needs the ball in his hands to be effective. He gets assisted way too often to need the ball to be effective. Our offense is supposedly drive and kick, but of course when Russell runs it, it's mostly just drive. If there were any kick, guys like Harden and Cook would be even more useful, since they're good spot up shooters. And I agree that two ball dominant scorers, efficient or not, have a hard time surviving on the floor together, especially with KD out there too.
But I don't agree that this reality precludes those three guys from playing well together in theory. It currently is in practice, but it doesn't have to be that way in theory. The prime example for this is the Miami Heat, who have both LeBron and Wade who need the ball in their hands, and Bosh who doesn't. Those guys make it work just fine. In fact, when they run it correctly, their ball movement is about as good as it gets. When our 3 guys are on the court together, the ball movement doesn't change. There's no good basketball reason to lock Harden out of the offense, so why does it happen? Well... it shouldn't.
Chalk it up to our simplistic offense, or maybe chalk it up to Russell's basketball IQ. Maybe Russell can only run one or two options and three options is an overload. Maybe it's more of a collective basketball IQ thing, because I know Nick has one of the highest on the team, and Serge doesn't. Maybe that Nick and James side pick and roll they use just can't operate without Nick. Maybe James just has a rhythm stuck in his system that gets thrown off when he's not in the second unit.
Totally agree though, that right now Harden isn't working with the starters. It doesn't help that Harden isn't working well on the road in general, regardless of which team he plays with. But as long as Harden struggles with the starters, I'm all for leaving him on the bench.
Right now it is better than he comes off the bench, but that is more of how we play offense with Iso rather than pick and roll or motion, that would involve more players in the starting lineup, with us having 3 nonscorers in the starting lineup Iso makes sense, when you add the 3rd scoring option it doesnt. Long term harden should start after a normal training cam where they can play with the offensive sets, in the middle of the year replacing thabo with a another spot up shooter who doesnt need the ball in his hands make sense.
Not related to this article, but was playing around with statscube and came up with this interesting fact: In 3 games vs Dallas Dirk has shot 28% from the field when Nick is on the the floor, and 53% when he is not.
Right on Royce. Harden just doesn't have that rhythm with the starters...yet. Harden tends to flow and is a smooth scorer whenever he's out there with the second unit. Especially if Mr. Nick Collison is out there. Harden is good, but until he finds how to coalesce with the starters, he needs to keep coming off the bench and pick up that sixth man award.