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Friday Bolts – 3.9.12

by Royce Young on March 9, 2012 at 11:23 am 32 Comments

Zach Lowe of SI.com: “That said, the Thunder, as documented here and here, are riding a ridiculous wave of super crunch-time play that has pushed their record above where it probably should be. They remain a so-so defensive team, except in the final minutes of close games, when they turn into the 2008 Celtics. They struggle to find any scoring at all beyond their top three players; Oklahoma City piled up 115 points last night against the Suns, and only five of their players scored any points. Floor-spacing can be an issue, Russell Westbrook remains addicted to pull-up 20-footers in the first five seconds of the shot clock and the three core big men –Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison — are almost total non-threats on the pick-and-roll. If this team really has another gear on defense, as perhaps evidenced by its crunch-time play, they might be able to waltz through this conference. If they’ve been lucky, they could be had.”

Scott Brooks on if Royal Ivey could start: “I’ve definitely thought about it, (but) never to the point where I’ve wanted to pull the trigger,” Brooks said before Monday night’s home victory against Dallas. “I like his (Ivey’s) energy off the bench. I like DC’s ability to stretch the floor, and he’s been guarding much better. Definitely thought about it, but not enough to make the switch.”

James Harden and KD did a Skull Candy commercial with Kate Upton.

SportsGrid on being KD: “Can we begin the speculation? Dare we say that Kevin Durant and Sports Illustrated Swimsuit Issue cover girl Kate Upton are an item? No. They spent the afternoon together because they were filming a commercial. Boring. It wouldn’t be all that bad of an idea, though. Upton is the Kevin Durant of hot chicks, right? There’s no spark here, at least not to our knowledge — as people who are typically in the know — but if Durant did want to make the move on Ms. Upton, might we suggest opening up that hand a little? Just a little pointer from a dude who will never come within a mile of Kate Upton in his lifetime.”

A pretty rad Harden painting.

Joe Treutlein for TrueHoop on reinventing the box score: “Because teams have more of an incentive to utilize data to get an edge on their competition, a larger budget to develop solutions, and more confidence in using their own methodology to determine the division of credit and blame among players, the public is at a large disadvantage in seeing the most useful statistical advancements reach them. Still, the field of sports analytics is growing exponentially, and many of the advancements seen from teams will eventually make their way to the public in some form. In the mean time, there is still some that can be done with what is publicly available, and fans will just have to wait and see where the next innovation comes from.”

Shaun Powell of NBA.com OKC going for Dwight Howard: “For the Thunder: They get a low-post offensive presence which they currently lack, bolster their interior defense (who’s gonna attack the rim against Howard and Serge Ibaka?) and become dangerous in the half-court style that’s needed to go deep in the postseason. Really, the margin for error is slim. Yes, Oklahoma City would be removing a top-flight point guard without having a capable backup handy; remember, Eric Maynor is done with a torn ACL. But that can be rectified. Oklahoma can ask Orlando to toss Jameer Nelson in the deal. Nelson would be fine for what OKC needs, a player who can manage the position. With Durant, Howard and Harden on the floor, you don’t need an All-Star point guard.”

NBA.com’s race to the MVP: “If you want a true measure of the force that Durant has become, just take a peek at his shooting percentage in four of the Thunder’s last five games. Only once did make it above 40 percent and yet he still averaged 29.6 points during that stretch. It certainly helps when you shoot free throws as frequently (11 per game) and as well (.855) as Durant does. Lost in the glare of his offensive arsenal is Durant’s significant improvement on the defensive end. He’s a much more complete player than he gets credit for.”

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scary_larry
scary_larry 5pts

" I'm a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work the more I have of it." Thomas Jefferson

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

kate upton wearing just KD35 skullcandy headphones would be pretty awesome.

TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard
TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @f5alcon and let the church say amen

courtsense
courtsense 5pts

 @JimboSlice Hallelujah!

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

Attention Stat Guys, I need an explanation/translation of a number. Basketball reference says here (http://www.basketball-reference.com/leagues/NBA_2012_leaders.html) that KD's Defensive Win Shares are 2.2, good for 13th in the league.  What are win shares? Are they that useful of a reference? Or is KD posting good defensive stats that we're just unaware of, despite his seeming laziness on defense? I'm just really confused by it.

 

Thanks!

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas its complicated, http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html

but it is roughly defensive rating(opponent points scored per 100 possessions) modified by minutes played

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @f5alcon You're right, it is complicated. Geez. 

 

Still, it's sort of incongruous with the level of defense that KD appears to bring effort-wise. I'm just trying to get a feeling for how reliable it is.

Crow
Crow 5pts

 @Keith00 Defensive Rating and Defensive Win Shares make the simplistic assumption that all players contribute equally to average team shot defensewhether they were on the court or not when certaian plays  occurred and regardless on the position where the scoring came from  but also makes the simplistic assumption that players get 100% of the credit for their steals and blocks but no endure special penalty for opponent baskets made easier by trying to swipe the ball or knock it somewhere and often losing position between the player and the basket . I do not consider it a very good metric. i look at it but with some skepticism and with the need to check other stats to compare with it. Neither  Dean Oliver or basketballreference looked at play by play data in preparing these metrics. EZPM by Evan Zamir at his site thecity2.com and RAPM here http://stats-for-the-nba.appspot.com/ are better in that they are play by play based.

Keith00
Keith00 5pts

 @ou_sas  @f5alcon Melo should still be mentioned. But the drop-off in tiers is significant.

 

Superstars - Lebron and KD

Psuedo Stars - Melo, Granger, Iggy, Pierce

Good, not great, Players - Gay, Batum, Gerald Wallace, Deng

 

After that you have quality starters perhaps, but nobody you would want as a focal point of anything. Basically, outside of those 10 (2 of which play for the same team), teams wouldn't cross SF off the list of needs.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @f5alcon Actually, it begs a good question: How many dominant SFs are there in the league at the moment? KD, LeBron for sure. Who else?

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @f5alcon It presumably has to be pretty disheartening to think that no matter how good a defense you play, KD will - not might, will - hit 2-3 shots per game that just make you shake your head and think "How the heck did that go in? And how the heck do I defend that?!" 

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @ou_sas I think it helps that KD makes the other player work harder on defense and he has outscored every SF he has played against this year.

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts

Nice find on the Harden painting, Royce.  There are some other interesting illustrations on the site:

 

http://www.double-scribble.com/tagged/oklahoma_city_thunder

 

...of particular note: scroll down to the Halloween themed zombie Sonics starting 5.

andrew35
andrew35 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

1.  Couldn't believe Simmons had Harden 33rd in trade value column AND that he was behind Ibaka.  He should be top 20 imo.

 

2.  While I think most of us realize a Howard trade is not happening, it is real hard for me to believe that he wouldn't resign here if we traded for him.  He really cares about his "brand" that much that he would walk away from playing with KD&Harden/Westbrook?  Or he cares about being the main guy that much?  Idk, it just seems weird to me.  If I was Presti I would at least be sending some ideas at him through backchannels to try to get a read on the situation.  (Which he probably has done/is doing..)  Also, getting

howard would save us money by allowing us to only have to pay 3 big contracts instead of either paying 4 or losing Ibaka or Harden.

Brob785
Brob785 5pts

 @andrew35 It's because Harden's price will be higher. That factors into his trade value rankings.

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @andrew35 It's because Ibaka has that air of mystery to him. We vaguely know what Harden's potential will be (Ginobli), but Ibaka is a little more puzzling. 

andrew35
andrew35 5pts

 @dancassidy35 I feel like we have a pretty good handle on what he is going to be actually.  Great shotblocker, middling rebounder(mostly because he leaves the rim to contest so many shots), and someone who can occasionally knock down a midrange J.  I'm certainly not holding my breath hoping he is going to develop a viable back to the basket offensive game.

sammasaaron
sammasaaron 5pts

 @dancassidy35 Personally, I think he was trying to hard to develop a post game earlier in the season. When he got back to pounding the glass on the offensive end, he upped both his rebound numbers and got easy put-back points, which has had the added effect of the other team actually having to pay attention to him on offense. I'd like to see less entry passes to him (until he gets better at looking for/catching the ball) and more lobs that he can go up and get.

andrew35
andrew35 5pts

 @Jimmy Harden  @dancassidy35 

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/i/ibakase01.html

 

His Per-36 numbers have basically been identical in every category all 3 seasons.(with the exception of shotblocking)

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @dancassidy35  1st 20 games of the season he had only 3 double digit rebound games, none in first 14 games.

last 19 games 7 double digit rebound games.

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @f5alcon Yeah he wasn't playing well at first, but I think he's really coming along the last month or so. Hopefully, he keeps it up.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @dancassidy35  the last month has been better he just started the season really far off his old numbers.

ElMexiThunder
ElMexiThunder 5pts

 @dancassidy35  @f5alcon  @Jimmy Harden

Yeah hes in kinda a funk this year.  

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @f5alcon  @Jimmy Harden I'm a little surprised to see that that many stats are worse this year for him. Just watching him play the last few weeks, I'd easily take this year's Ibaka over last year's. But what do I know haha

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @shorthorns4  that would be the case if we rebounded well as a team, but we dont, so the other team is getting the rebounds, we are 8th worst in defensive rebound rate and 16th in ORR

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Jimmy Harden  he has not progressed every year, this year he is actually worse with fg%, ft%, defensive rebs per game, ppg, and more turnovers, his drb% and trb% are down, defensive rating is worse.

shorthorns4
shorthorns4 5pts

 @Jimmy Harden  @andrew35  @dancassidy35 The other thing people don't seem to understand with Ibaka's rebounding is that he plays with the best rebounding PG in the league and a top 3 rebounder at SF. There's only so many rebounds to be had between Westbrook, KD, Ibaka and Perk.

Brian Newall
Brian Newall 5pts

 @andrew35  @dancassidy35  Andrew, so you are saying Ibaka has peaked as far as skill set goes?  Because you just described his game to a T with your description of what he is going to be.  He has progressed in every aspect of his game every single year, why do you think he wont continue that trend?

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @dancassidy35  @andrew35 Is that Serge Ibaka, International Man of Mystery?

 

 

Now that I think about it, that would be a pretty sweet T-shirt...

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @ou_sas  @andrew35 We do need a new Ibaka shirt haha

T-Fred
T-Fred 5pts

We don't need howard on our team 

Keith00
Keith00 5pts

 @tydude No champion to date has needed him. However, he would be better than what we would send out. That's how Presti rolls.

Trackbacks

  1. The Daily Peep, March 9 « HoopSpeak.com says:
    March 9, 2012 at 4:05 pm

    [...] Daily Thunder’s Royce Young, an awesome James Harden [...]

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