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At 31-8, the Thunder own the West’s best record by 4.5 games over San Antonio and lead the Northwest Division by 9.5. Not to count any chickens or anything, but the chances are high that Oklahoma City finishes the season as the Western Conference’s No. 1 seed.
There are still 27 games yet to be played and things can certainly change, but I think we can safely assume the Thunder will be in the 2012 playoffs, which means it’s not too early to start wondering about matchups. The Western playoff picture is still cloudy, but there’s a solid sense of who the eight participants will be. And the question is, of whom shall the Thunder fear? Here’s a breakdown.
(Of note: I consider this to be on a Fear Factor scale of Charlotte to Miami — one being the Bobcats and 10 being the Heat.)
HOUSTON ROCKETS
Current record: 21-19
Current seed: 9th
Player to fear: Kyle Lowry
OKC’s record against: 2-1
The Thunder are 2-0 against the Rockets this season when Houston plays without Kyle Lowry. And 0-1 when they have him. Granted, that game had an absolutely miserable first quarter effort and the Thunder missed their final eight shots, eventually losing by a point. The Rockets are sliding, but as an eight-seed, they could be mildly dangerous. Meaning I could see them winning a game. Fear Factor: 4
MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES
Current record: 21-19
Current seed: 8th
Player to fear: Kevin Love
OKC’s record against: 1-0
The one game the Thunder played the Wolves came down to a photo finish, with Kendrick Perkins coming up with a big block on Michael Beasley. The Wolves have a little bit of a 2009 Thunder look to them in that they’re young, eager and have some serious talent. Going against Kevin Love in a seven-game series doesn’t sound like an easy task. OKC matches up pretty well with the Wolves, but any time you’re battling a player of Love’s caliber, it’s going to be a challenge. Fear Factor: 6
LOS ANGELES LAKERS
Current record: 23-16
Current seed: 5th
Player to fear: Kobe Bryant
OKC’s record against: 1-0
The Lakers are a bit of a jumbled mess right now. There are trade rumors circling, Mike Brown may not be getting along with Kobe and the team lost back-to-back games in Detroit and Washington. But they still have No. 24 and still have Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol. They’re 17-2 at home, so beating them in Staples would take a mighty effort. But still, it was obvious in the matchup in OKC that the Thunder are the superior team right now. Perk can defend Bynum, Harden matches well with Kobe (plus, there’s Thabo) and really unless Laker role players have big nights, the Thunder should be good. Fear Factor: 5
DENVER NUGGETS
Current record: 22-18
Current seed: 7th
Player to fear: Ty Lawson
OKC’s record against: 1-0
One thing’s for sure: If the Thunder drew the Nuggets, it would be a close, painful battle. It might end in four or five games, but each night would come down to two or three big possessions. George Karl is convinced his team ball premise can win and while it certainly has and will, it falls short in one area: When it has to beat Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. When defense tightens in the final five minutes of a close game, OKC can turn to not one, but two crunch-time scorers. The Nuggets haven’t really solved that yet and it’s a reason the Thunder have taken five of the last six from Denver. Still, knowing how little has separated the two teams is cause for concern. Fear Factor: 6
DALLAS MAVERICKS
Current record: 23-17
Current seed: 6th
Player to fear: Dirk
OKC’s record against: 3-1
Dirk, you guys. Dirk. After that, do you really need to make a case as to why you fear the Mavs? Thunder fans were one of a few that got a taste of what it’s like trying to beat Dirk and the Mavs four times in seven tries last season, and it wasn’t fun. This Dallas team is far more vulnerable though and OKC taking three of four was no fluke. The games were certainly close, but it’s clear the Thunder have an edge… right now. In a playoff series? I know I’d be worried. Fear Factor: 8
PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS
Current record: 19-20
Current seed: 11th
Player to fear: LaMarcus Aldridge
OKC’s record against: 1-1
As of now, Portland has fallen from the Western playoff picture and are sliding rapidly toward the lottery. Still, as I tried to convince my friend Ben Golliver of Blazersedge of in Orlando, the Blazers are a team that terrify me greatly as a first round opponent. LaMarcus Aldridge consistently destroys the Thunder, Gerald Wallace and Nicolas Batrum are prototype defenders for Durant and then they have Marcus Camby to protect the rim and tip out offensive rebounds. The Blazers aren’t good against most of the league right now, but in an opening round series against OKC, I’d worry. Fear Factor: 7
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Current record: 26-12
Current seed: 2nd
Player to fear: Tony Parker
OKC’s record against: 1-1
Each team has taken turns blowing the other out, both wins coming on home floors. But here’s a key: Manu Ginobili didn’t play in either of those games. Tony Parker torched the Thunder in San Antonio, but really, it was more the Spurs’ drive-and-kick, pick-and-roll action that hurt the Thunder. Basically a series against San Antonio would essentially come down to if the Spurs were on from deep four nights. Because if so, OKC could go down. Fear Factor: 8
MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES
Current record: 23-15
Current seed: 3rd
Player to fear: Marc Gasol
OKC’s record against: 3-0
Everyone knows why the Grizzlies are scary. Because they’re big, have brown fur, have big teeth and are not morally opposed to tearing human flesh. Oh wait, I’m describing an actually grizzly. Or Marc Gasol. I’m not sure. Memphis has yet to really have an opportunity to play with their full complement of talent. The Thunder are 3-0 against them this season, but all three games have been fourth quarter battles. And that’s how a playoff series would be. OKC matches up better than most against Memphis inside, but it would likely come down to if Durant and Westbrook were good enough to carry the load for four games. Fear Factor: 7
LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS
Current record: 22-15
Current seed: 4th
Player to fear: Chris Paul
OKC’s record against: 0-1
For a minute there, the Clips looked like a legit Western contender. And while this recent stretch has been tough, I don’t think they should be written off yet. They have issues, but in terms of matching OKC, I still see them as the greatest threat. Chris Paul consistently gets his teammates good shots, they have some 3-point marksmen, they have an inside threat in Blake Griffin, they have a paint protector in DeAndre Jordan and they can turn to Caron Butler for big baskets. I just don’t think the Thunder can defend the Clippers well, but in order to beat them, would have to outscore them. Fear Factor: 9
You guys have got to realize that we don't need Howard. With Westbrook right now you have a top 2 or 3 point guard in the league. Durant is a top 1 or 2 at the forward position(debatable with James on which spot) and the soon to be sixth man of the year with Harden. If Thabo can get healthy he can defend any teams best player and we already have instant offense with three players. Ibaka is going to get better and Aldrich has flashes of brilliance from time to time. He is the future at center for OKC so breaking up this youthful team would be foolish especially since we are holding the number one spot in the west and keep flip flopping for number 1 in the league. Just sit back and enjoy what you have and enjoy watching Durant/Westbrook/Harden/Ibaka/Aldrich/and even Jackson continue to develop. This team is deep and talented. With Perkins you have a great defender, they don't need a lot of points from the post but I think Aldrich and Ibaka will be the ones providing that in the near future.
Speaking with family from Orlando, it seems like we're not the only ones who think we're the best fit to offer a deal to Howard.
Hows about Westbrook, Perkins, Nazr and a pick or two for him. How do you guys feel about Diaw? Charlotte is trying to get rid of him. I personally don't like him but if we can get him in a package with D.J. Agustine, they're both would be one year rentals.
Dallas loses to PHX who takes twice as many FT's as the champs. Yet they only seem to get really vocal and whiny about such things after they lose to "little brother". Dallas could easily slip to the 8th seed or out of the out of the playoffs. Their mid-March to April schedule is every bit as brutal as ours (SA, @ DEN, LAL, @SA, @HOU, HOU, @MIA, @ORL, LAC, MEM, POR, @MEM) and they close out the season with a lot of road games including trips to POR, LAL, CHI, ATL.
@Fuzzy Logic i hope both them and portland miss the playoffs
@f5alcon @Fuzzy Logic
Me too, then they can blame the entire season on the call, and our ft's
via hoopshype: Brian Schmitz: Magic have talked to OKC but Thunder balks at giving up Ibaka and Harden to rent Dwight.
@areayewhy The trade that works salary cap-wise is: Westbrook/Ibaka/Perkins/Cook to Orlando for Howard/Anderson/Orton. Additionally, OKC could then spin Nazr's expiring deal and a 2nd rounder back to Charlotte for DJ Augustin and his expiring deal.
Starting 5: Howard, Collison, KD, Sefolosha, Augustin
Bench: Cole/Orton, Anderson, Harden, Reggie, Ivey
If Maynor comes back healthy, let Augustin walk this summer. If Maynor has health issues, keep Augustin on a 1-year deal until Reggie is ready to take over PG.
@courtsense @areayewhy
They will never trade Anderson. Understand that, at this moment Anderson is the only untouchable on that team.
@ElMexiThunder It's true. The Magic intend to rebuild WITH Anderson. There is no reason for them to offer extra value when they are already moving Dwight.
Then how come we don't have a consistent one?
@ElMexiThunder @areayewhy If it means getting what they want for Howard, Anderson will be gone in a heartbeat. Spot-up 3-pt shooters aren't that hard to come by.
@areayewhy Would you guys do that if Dwight were to simply do what CP3 did with the clippers and just commit to picking up his player option for next season, which would give us a season and a half with dwight?
@anonymous12345 @areayewhy If that is the case, make the trade. The very fact he would pick his option is enough "faith" that he is amenable to staying. Moreover, that could very realistically lead to back to back championships. He's only leaving the Magic because they have buried themselves under terrible management of trades and personnel. I doubt he would want out of OKC if he was making regular trips to the finals.
@Keith00 @areayewhy Hopefully KD can throw him a role in the thunderstruck sequel to entice him to stay longer
@areayewhy Obviously worth talking about, but yeah, it always would come down to Dwight. I would probably make that trade if Dwight wanted to stay, but absolutely no way if he could walk in the summer.
Also, just throwing it out there, but it makes more sense to me to trade Westbrook than Harden and Ibaka if we are getting Dwight. Just from a fit perspective, the lane isn't going to be open very much with Dwight and Russ operating in the same space offensively. Moreover, Dwight needs shooters around him, which Russ isn't. The passing I don't think would really be an issue, Russ would pass inside if we had reason to. But Harden as our secondary perimeter scorer/passer is a better fit with Dwight. Of course, that would also leave a massive hole at PG.
@areayewhy IF (IF!) Dwight decided he would extend here, we should trade Russ-Perkins-Cole-First Rounder for Dwight. Then, we should turn right around trade Thabo for Sessions. Thabo's defensive value drops considerably with Dwight as the backbone of our defense. And Cleveland has absolutely nothing at SG, with Kyrie being a good enough shooter that he does not need a scorer at the 2.
@Keith00 Yup, a stretch 4 is good to have with dwight as your center. A ryan andersen type would be better than another shotblocker in serge.
@areayewhy I have already accepted that trade for Howard puts an end to Ibaka. Not right away necessarily, but we would likely trade him before he hit RFA. For starters, Ibaka's skills are superfluous with Dwight around. As well, Ibaka and Dwight don't complement each other. Ibaka is not a consistent shooter or ballhandler, which are far more useful next to a low post champ like Dwight.
@Keith00 I plugged some salary cap estimations based off of hoopsworld's salary cap numbers. It looks like we'd be fine for next year, but after that (2013-14) it gets tricky because i'm not sure what kind of offers harden, maynor, and serge will get.
@Keith00 ya, i originally put harden in the starting unit, but realized how overmatched the second unit would be without him.
@areayewhy Something to that effect, yes. Eventually I think Harden will start, but he will be more needed in the second unit in the short term until Maynor returns or Reggie develops. Though let us be honest, our second unit has been overmatched since Maynor was injured anyway.
@Keith00 in your scenario the starting 5 would be: sessions, cook, durant, ibaka, dwight?
and the bench rotation would include: reggie, harden, collison, nazr?
@areayewhy Russ is worth way more than anyone NY offered for Melo. He's a legitimate superstar. That alone makes this a completely different trade. Although, I am honestly not sure if Russ can be traded this season since he signed the extension well after the season started..
@areayewhy I was thinking something more like this. With us also including a first rounder to Orlando and maybe a couple second rounders to Cleveland.
http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=7ytbuhj
@Keith00 ya, in that scenario trading thabo for a decent point guard would be good. i was thinking this move, but our salary cap would be in trouble. http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=86rxjz4
@Keith00 we would probably have to grab nelson as well in the trade to be competitive. i'm trying to see how we could extend howard without being way over the cap.
@areayewhy @Keith00It's doable if Ibaka and Harden are gone and no longer need to be extended. Perk is no longer needed either so they can trade/amnesty him. They would have to probably pay the tax, but they essentially become the Miami Heat with better spacing clearly defined roles.
@areayewhy yeah maybe if dwight would commit to the extension it would be worth it.
Word is that Portland will let Jamal Crawford go for a first round pick. Granted the teams they are speaking with Minnesota, Indiana will have better picks than us. But how about shipping a first round pick and Thibor Pleiss or first round pick and Nazr for Crawford? Solves some backcourt depth issues we could encounter.
@totallytickets I'd only do this if Thabo for sure wasn't coming back this season.
@totallytickets I think Nazr is better than Przybilla and Kurt Thomas and they will save $6M by this trade.
"Carlos Boozer picked up some slack by scoring 26 points on 12-for-20 shooting, but Boozer has always been the kind of player who provides numbers without controlling tempo or dictating outcome." -Matt McHale, By the Horns I guess Bulls people have decided to never give Boozer credit for anything.
@ATH A lot of people have to think all of Rose's teammates are horrible in order to feel good about liking Rose so much.
@ATH Like you noted, it was written by Matt McHale (aka Basketbawful). He's notoriously negative (and hilarious) in what he tends to write.
@Erdeezet @ATH All the Bulls fans I know don't give Boozer credit for a dang thing. I dunno why because the dude definitely doesn't suck
@JimboSlice @Erdeezet @ATH he didn't play well and missed some time due to injury during his first year in chi. because of this, i think the fans have a bad perception of boozer.
@f5alcon @JimboSlice @Erdeezet @ATH They need to pretend that Rose has no help whatsoever in order to justify him being mvp worthy.
@JimboSlice @Erdeezet @ATH yeah boozer is a pretty good player, but they make it sound like rose scores every point
So, sources within the Magic say their front office isn't all that into the trade "assets' of the Lakers, Mavs, and Nets. Turns out Orlando is looking for a Melo-type deal that will bring them a combination of young guns and draft picks in exchange for a certain Mr. Howard and perhaps a teammate or two.
So, which NBA team has a lot of ripe young talent, and future draft picks to trade...which team could afford to give up a couple quality pieces and a pick or two and still have enough left to compete for a title this year and beyond...if only there was a team that was uniquely positioned to take advantage of this most auspicious opportunity...
Geez, I'm just wracking my brain over here and I'll be damned if I can think of a team...hey - wait a second...
@courtsense and who got the better end of the melo deal? not that team that got the star.
@f5alcon Slight difference between Howard and Anthony.
@courtsense Let's see, Harden > Gallo; Maynor = Felton; Ibaka > Wilson Chandler; Aldrich = Mosgov. So yeah, we have the talent. But we already knew that. We aren't interested because Dwight won't reup with OKC, and that isn't changing.
@ATH @courtsense See my reply to Justin_Mia below...
@courtsense If Dwight did that, we'd be in business. I don't think he'd consider it though. CP3 didn't land where he expected but it's still LA. No one was surprised he exercised that option.
Dallas and Chicago both lose...
Today was a good day
@RodneyRosavelRusanWilson clippers play spurs tomorrow so good for us either way.
@f5alcon @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson I've seen you use this logic on here before. You realize one of those teams is gonna win, in turn hurting us, and canceling out any benefits that the other loss would provide right?
@dollarbillrussell not if we win, then the spread stays the same against the team that won, and we gain on the other
@dollarbillrussell @f5alcon @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson go clippers, always root for the lower seed
but above all, THUNDERUP
@RodneyRosavelRusanWilson Roddy (misses) Buckets
@Daniel Hawaii @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson I'm sure it was the refs fault again.
@f5alcon @JakeArent THE CALLS OF CHAMPIONS!!!
@JakeArent the suns took twice as many FTs so of course it was,lol.