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Thunder Player Power Rankings: Stretch run

by Royce Young on April 16, 2012 at 11:49 am 88 Comments

David Sherman/NBAE/Getty Images

WEEK 1 | WEEK 2 | WEEK 3 | WEEK 4 | WEEK 5 | WEEK 6 | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 | WEEK 15

Four games in six days, three wins. Not all that bad, except the Thunder won the games they absolutely should, and lost a home game against the only good team.

It still feels like there’s a palpable level of anxiety circling the fanbase, but Oklahoma City has won four of five since dropping three straight. The Thunder’s last four losses have been to highly seeded playoff teams. And every game has been decided by two possessions or less.

The Thunder have absolutely been a bit inconsistent with their play since the All-Star break, with wins even leaving an odd taste in fans’ mouths. Plus the fact that they may potentially blow the No. 1 seed in the West is upsetting. But the reality is that it’s the stretch run of the season and OKC is technically in first place and definitely primed as one of the four likely contenders for an NBA title. Should we really all be that upset? Nervous, anxious, tense… yes. But this team is good. It’s just a question of if they’re good enough.

Now to the rankings:

1. Kevin Durant (Last week: 1)

KD will say he doesn’t care about things like the scoring title or MVP, and while he probably really doesn’t, I’m sure those are nice things he’d be excited if they came his way in the next two weeks. He has two scoring titles already, but winning again this season means he would have three straight something only George Mikan, Neil Johnston, Wilt Chamberlain, Bob McAdoo, George Gervin and Michael Jordan have done. Nobody has three-peated with scoring titles since MJ in 1998. So that would be pretty cool. KD’s currently at 27.8 while Kobe is sitting at 28.1 (actually 28.07). If Kobe stays at 28.1 — which he might as he hasn’t played the last five games — KD would need to average 31 points per game over his final six to overtake that. Completely doable, I’d say.

As for the MVP, there will be more time to make cases, but it’s a bit frustrating when people act like LeBron obviously is the MVP. What makes it so? KD’s team has a better record and their stats — outside of PER and assists — aren’t all that different. I’ve had a lot of people say, “Yeah, but KD’s turnovers…” Did you know LeBron averaged 3.4 a game to KD’s 3.7? Not that striking of a difference, huh? LeBron has been a better defender, I’ll grant that, but there isn’t some chasm of separation in that area. KD is a really solid on-ball defender. He just hasn’t built the reputation LeBron has for it.

I still think the MVP is up in the air. People are going to lean LeBron’s way because it seems like you’ll be labeled a basketball idiot and have a scarlet “KD” branded on your chest if you don’t, but I don’t think this race is as cut and dry as some make it out to be.

2. Russell Westbrook (Last week: 2)

A return to the normal consistency from Westbrook as he averaged 25.7 points and nearly six assists last week. Only one game he really struggled, and wouldn’t you know it, it was the game OKC lost. To make up for it, he decided to levitate in front of 19,000 people.

And check his per 36 stats for the week: 32 points, six rebounds, seven assists and 46.2 percent from the field. Pret-tay, pret-tay good.

Also, I really liked what Rick Adelman said after the Wolves game against OKC about Westbrook: “Everybody doesn’t have to be John Stockton,” he said. “If they’re really down on him, he can come over here. I’ll let him play.”

3. Serge Ibaka (Last week: 3)

This blocked shots thing is getting kind of ridiculous. Ibaka is averaging 5.3 a game in April, and that’s in just 24.9 minutes a game! He routinely turns in four, five or six block shots a night, most of the time picking up three within the first five minutes of a game. Ibaka completely changes the look of OKC’s interior defense because teams absolutely hesitate to attack with him patrolling the paint.

One thing though that has dipped for Ibaka is his rebounding. He was a terror on the glass in March, but is only averaging 5.9 in April. That’s right, he almost averages more blocks than rebounds. He picked up his first double-digit rebounding game in more than two weeks against the Wolves. But with his consistent scoring, improving rebounding and shot-blocking, is he a candidate to average 10-10-4 next season? Is it really possible?

4. Thabo Sefolosha (Last week: 6)

His perimeter defense has completely returned as he showcased against Monta Ellis in Milwaukee. But he’s also back to shooting the ball a bit. Last week he hit 6-of-12 from 3 and averaged 8.0 a game. Anything extra Thabo provides offensively, especially 3s, make the Thunder so much more dangerous.

5. Nick Collison (Last week: 4)

If the Thunder were to somehow lock up the No. 1 seed with a game or two to play, what I would like to see is a night of trying to pad Collison’s stats. Wouldn’t that be fun? Feed Collison the ball like he was the featured star, let him work in the post, shoot jumpers, whatever. He’s sacrificed stats for this team for a long time, so why not throw him a bone and let him throwback like he was in Allen Fieldhouse with Keith Langford and Kirk Hinrich.

6. James Harden (Last week: 5)

Harden had restored his consistent, efficient bench scoring with 16 against Milwaukee and  17 against the Clippers, but then he sat against the Kings and scored six on 1-of-11 shooting against the Wolves. Also, he hasn’t scored 20 points yet in April, with the most this month being 17. I’m not saying there’s cause for concern, I’m just saying Harden hasn’t played as well as he’s capable lately.

7. Kendrick Perkins (Last week: 7)

Take away the game against Chicago April 1, and Perk has averaged 8.2 rebounds a game this month. He’s become a bit more of an offensive threat with his catching, dunking and big-to-big passing with Ibaka and has of course played quality interior defense. The thing with Perk is that he really should play more of a specialized role of defending bigs and playing in more matchup situations, but I do think he’s rounding into his best form for playoff time.

8. Derek Fisher: (Last week: 8)

OK, we need to talk about this. Fisher had his best game against the Kings, scoring 14 on 6-8 shooting. I think he’s breaking out of that shooting funk he was stuck in. He looks like he’s fitting in better, gelling with the second unit and finding his place.

But he’s playing way too freaking much. Scott Brooks said the night Fisher was signed that he’d play “13-20 minutes a night” backing up Westbrook. Well, he’s averaging better than 20 minutes a game with the Thunder, and has only played less than 15 once. And he doesn’t really back up Westbrook. He’s essentially become the new off guard in OKC’s smallball lineup. Harden is really the Thunder’s backup point guard.

I was fully on board with the Fisher signing when it appeared he’d basically be taking over the exact role Reggie Jackson had been playing. But Brooks is in love with Fisher for some reason. I just don’t see why Daequan Cook’s minutes are being slashed so drastically when he makes so much more sense in those smallball lineups. It’s not hard to picture a playoff game where Fisher inexplicably plays 35 minutes as we all watch Cook and Thabo sit harmlessly on the bench. I’m just confused with Fisher’s role.

9. Nazr Mohammed (Last week: 10)

“One quiet, but very positive development over the last couple weeks has been the resurgence of Nazr Mohammed.” I typed that sentence before I went and looked at his stats for the week — 4.0 ppg,  3.6 rpg. Higher than his season averages, yes, but still nothing to get that excited about. Still, it just feels like Mohammed is playing better. It seems like he’s having more of an impact on the floor, even if he’s just getting five or six minutes a night.

10. Daequan Cook (Last week: 9)

Cook’s minutes last week: 11, 4, 24, 8. What his role is anymore, I do not know.

11. Cole Aldrich (Last week: 11)

The fact Aldrich didn’t celebrate the Thunder’s blowout of the Kings with a ceremonial dunk was one of the most disappointing moments in the season.

12. Royal Ivey (Last week: 12)

13. Lazar Hayward (Last week: 13)

And… scene.

Inactives: Eric Maynor, Reggie Jackson

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KoolKeith3000
KoolKeith3000 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

My biggest problem with Brooks is his tendency to go to certain players by default.  The best example of that is always going to Perkins in the small-ball lineup.  I agree with most people on this board, that Ibake should get more minutes playing at the 5 in the small-ball lineup.  Collison as well.  I like the physical presence Perk  gives the Thunder, but his defense doesn't stand out enough to make up for what you lose on the offensive end, especially to finish out games.  If Perkins is playing really well, or there's a certain matchup you need him for (Andrew Bynum) i'm fine with giving him minutes, but it shouldn't be by default.

 

It seems like Ibaka really struggles guarding stretch 4's that can shoot from the outside.  Guys like Al Harrington, Matt Bonner, and Kevin Love end up getting a ton of open threes when Ibaka is guarding them.  That somewhat forces Brooks to go to a small-ball lineup.  If Ibaka had a low-post game, you could punish opposing teams when they go small, but that's not his game.  In those situations, Brooks needs to give minutes to Ibaka at the 5, and give him a chance to show his low-post defense has improved.

 

In terms of Fisher playing too many minutes, that's a valid point.  I don't think it makes sense to make a definitive statement that Fish should never play in the small-ball lineup.  He usually elevates his games in the playoffs, and if he is hitting his shots and playing well I don't have a problem with him getting some minutes with the starters. That being said, he shouldn't get minutes by default.  I agree that Cook, and Thabo should get more playing time with that unit, and there are times it really doesn't make sense to leave Fish out there (Minnesota game-he couldn't guard Barea).  I just hope in the playoffs, Brooks does a better job of deviating from his pre-set player rotations and is able to be a little less predictable.

SB718
SB718 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 5 Like

Saying LeBron is better isn't an insult to KD.  Let's not become Kobe fans.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

As to the KD-Lebron-MVP battle

Regular stats

category..........KD...........Lebron

pts..................27.8............26.9

fg%................50.3%..........52.8%

3pt fg%..........38.3%..........35.5%

FT%...............87%..............76.1%

TO..................3.7..................3.4

BLK...............1.2..................0.8

 

Pretty close, right?  Lebron's got a reputation for being a choker in the 4th quarter, let's compare these two at that time and see if the stats support it.

 

CLUTCH STATS (per 82games.com pro rata to 48 minutes)

category..........KD...........Lebron

pts..................50.8............33.2

fg%................41.1%..........38.6%

3pt fg%..........35.3%..........27.3%

FT%...............87%..............68%

TO..................2.4..................3.5

BLK...............2.8..................2.3

 

 To me, it's startling how much Lebron regresses when placed into the pressure situations.  68% freethrow shooting??  That's your MVP?

 

I left off the most important stat, clutch winning pct: KD = 62.5%  Lebron = 55.6%

SB718
SB718 5pts

 @FF_pickups This is all wonderful but if only math mattered there wouldn't be any need to watch games we'd just let Hollinger tell us who's the best.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups well you left out assists which is significantly in lebron's favor, and if you are going on clutch stats, kyrie irving should be mvp,

category..........KD...........irving

pts..................50.8............56.4

fg%................41.1%..........54.4%

3pt fg%..........35.3%..........66.7%

FT%...............87%..............89%

TO..................2.4..................4.3

 

irving also increased clevelands win percentage by 21% from last year.

 

HookemKD
HookemKD 5pts

 @f5alcon  @FF_pickups Comparing Irvings clutch stats with KD is like comparing a high school quarterbacks stats with a bad NFL quarterback. Irving has basically 0 pressure to perform well in endgame situations because his team sucks and he's a rookie, not to mention the fact that he's playing against much easier competition.

blueRAP
blueRAP 5pts

 @SB718 The clutch stats were brought up so we can further compare the obviously clear-cut 1st and 2nd competitors for the MVP. They weren't meant to be used in judging the MVP alone.

SB718
SB718 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @HookemKD  @f5alcon  @FF_pickups What easier competiton is he playing against?  Aren't they all in the same league?

SB718
SB718 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @f5alcon  @FF_pickups And Cleveland won in OKC, largely due to Irving beasting in the 4th.  Well it's clear then, Irving for MVP!

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

@f5alcon

 

I didn't say that the other stats don't matter, of course they do.  And in those stats, we see that KD destroys Irving by a lot.  When looking at KD vs. Durant during non-clutch times, we see that they are fairly close.

 

As for assists, I always leave them out because they don't statistically correlate to winning.  I'm sorry, they don't.

loplopol
loplopol 5pts

@FF_pickups i would expect KD vs Durant to be "pretty close" haha But i know what you meant

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

@f5falcon   '10 Lakers 15th

'08 Boston 8th

07 Spurs 20th

06 Heat 18th

05 spurs 10th

04 Pistons 15th

03 Spurs 22nd

 

I think those are right, you might double check.  Let's see, top 4 you claim, I'm not too good with the new math but is 22nd in the top 4?

 

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @FF_pickups  @f5alcon yes they do, every championship team has been in top 4 in ast% for the last decade

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @justin_mia 

I'm conceding that Lebron has been the best player during the rest of the game.  What I am arguing is that the game situations aren't being properly weighted in conventional analysis. 

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @FF_pickups  @f5alcon Assist making for teams might not but by focusing on scoring, and only scoring, you're completely ignoring what makes LeBron an All Time great.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @f5alcon  @FF_pickups Thank you.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

Dude I want to beat the Clippers so bad

ILikePancakes
ILikePancakes 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @OkcBaby  KD needs to activate those Jedi Mind Tricks already.

Air Bud
Air Bud 5pts

Little off topic, but the Rick Adelman quote made me think about this season Adelman will have only his SECOND losing season in 20 years!! Minus a key injury and he would be up for COY with the Wolves turnaround.

 

I think the man can coach and knows a little about basketball and his compliment toward Westbrook carries some weight. 

 

 

 

 

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

 @Skyline As a longtime Rockets fan (pre-Thunder) I agree. I always thought his Xs and Os were great, and that he was usually handed a pretty bad hand when it came the health of (and attitude) of his best players.

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @Skyline I'm a big fan of Adelman. 

TempBoy Brandon
TempBoy Brandon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

I agree that the MVP race is still to be decided. The Heat have struggled down the stretch, and that will certainly play a factor. They still have to play the Celtics and Bulls, so they potentially have a couple of primetime type games that the could lose. I think a lot of people will vote for KD if the Thunder finish with the #1 seed in the West and the Heat finish #2 in the East, especially if the Thunder have a better overall record. Both LeBron and KD's stats this season are crazy good, and while LeBron's may be slightly better overall, it isn't by a large amount. This is where things like KD's clutch reputation this season, LeBron's unclutch rep, along with record and general like/dislike for the two stars will make it  close finish. And if KD can catch Kobe for the scoring title, I'd say he also bags the MVP award in the process.

 

These final 6 games are going to decide whether we are the #1 seed or #2 seed, whether KD is #1 in the MVP race or #2 in the MVP race, and whether KD finishes #1 in the scoring title or #2 in the scoring title. Here's hoping for much more gold than silver this season. 

sammasaaron
sammasaaron 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @TempBoy Brandon My favorite part of the annual MVP argument is the numerous people who argue as though there is a well-defined, consensus definition of what the NBA MVP is. I also thought Simmons' idea of weighted (literally!) MVP award was a stupid argument in that it implied that some regular seasons are better than other regular seasons which is entirely dependent on 'drama' (tightness of the playoff seeding races, rivalries, etc.). The whole 'drama' thing is half of the debate over what MVP should mean. In any case, arguing about who the MVP will be shouldn't even be about stats, seedings or what have you, but rather how a select group of NBA observers are going to react to those things.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @sammasaaron  @TempBoy Brandon It's all about stories.  Rose won last season.  Howard or LeBron should have.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @sammasaaron "In any case, arguing about who the MVP will be shouldn't even be about stats, seedings or what have you, but rather how a select group of NBA observers are going to react to those things."

 

Really good post, imo.  In this quote are you saying that who SHOULD be MVP isn't about 'stats, seedings or what have you' or are you saying that who WILL be MVP isn't about 'stats, seedings or what have you'

sammasaaron
sammasaaron 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups The latter. I don't have a strong opinion on what "most valuable player" means or should mean or what the person awarded that honor should represent. Just that, in the end, what determines who receives the MVP trophy is the collective decisions of a panel of voters; the stats, stories and circumstances of each player inform the voters' decisions, but ultimately it's a subjective award and has to be considered through the lens of the individual voters and their relationship with the game. Contrast that with the scoring title, which is directly tied to a statistic. Thanks for the feedback!.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

I just logged in to clarify that HARDEN is not more important than russ, that is all.

SB718
SB718 5pts

LeBron will finish Top 3 in DPOY voting.  MVP argument ender.  KD is improved and underrated on that end but he's not a game changer. Not to mention this team wouldn't be 10-1 without Westbrook as Miami is without Wade.  If KD goes crazy and takes over the scoring lead and the team finishes with the best record in the league...maybe.

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @SB718 Just to clarify, you're saying that KD's not a gamechanger on just the defensive side right?

SB718
SB718 5pts

 @dancassidy35 No I'm saying the possible 3 time scoring champion can't change games on the offensive end.

SB718
SB718 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @sammasaaron  @dancassidy35 I was joking anyway.

sammasaaron
sammasaaron 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @SB718  @dancassidy35 I want to clarify: I'm not 'like'-ing that you were listening to DMX, but that doing so lead to aggressive behavior. It must be all the barking.

dollarbillrussell
dollarbillrussell 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @SB718  @dancassidy35 EY YO BITCH!

SB718
SB718 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @dancassidy35 Fair enough.  I was listening to DMX this morning, got a little aggressive.

 

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @SB718 Easy boss, just wanted to make sure

SB718
SB718 5pts

 @dancassidy35 Clearly not.  He's an underrated defender, very good in iso.  He's also terrible at times losing track of shooters and boxing out.  His defensive awareness isn't on par with LeBron's...and yes even the best have lapses.

Shake Down the Thunder
Shake Down the Thunder 5pts

 @dancassidy35  @SB718 I think so. At least, he better be saying that

sammasaaron
sammasaaron 5pts

Saw somebody ask about a "Thunder Games" update. It's from this website, http://wadefromcollege.blogspot.com/, but he hasn't done a Part 3 yet. Sad face.

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts

 @sammasaaron Alas, we're left hanging with dagger-wielding Russ still pursuing Serge. . .

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

ThunderGround Radio update?

TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard
TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

So, in reference to Fish... can the "Fish haters" say I told you so yet? The problem was never Fish as much as it was Scott Brooks.

ILikePancakes
ILikePancakes 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Let's beat the Clips so that their chances of winning their division will be minimal.

dollarbillrussell
dollarbillrussell 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

I feel like it's absolutely reasonable to think that Ibaka could average 12-12-5 if he was allowed to play starter's minutes.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @dollarbillrussell 

I agree with you.  However, didn't you think that Collison did a MUCH better job on Nowitzki in the playoffs last year?  There may be some matchups where he shouldn't be on the floor, probably count them on one hand. 

dollarbillrussell
dollarbillrussell 5pts

 @FF_pickups Yeah I totally agree with that. That being said, Collison is only gonna be another year older, while Ibaka will have another season of experience; the list of excuses for not playing him 30+ minutes is getting shorter and shorter.

loplopol
loplopol 5pts

@dancassidy35 @FF_pickups Perfect plan guys. Now email it to the front office

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @FF_pickups I'd still say there's times for Perk and Collison to be the five in smallball lineups but Serge should be in 80% of small ball lineups.

TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard
TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @FF_pickups  @dancassidy35 hit it dead on the head. If an overpowering center is playing, then why are we small in the first place? So, as previously stated, when we play small ball, KD at the four, Ibaka at the 5 every single time.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @dancassidy35  "Maybe switch that to 60-70. There are a fair amount of centers that are too strong for Ibaka."

 

What my argument was that if the other team has a center who can overpower Ibaka, then we shouldn't go small ball.  In other words, I don't think that it's a good idea to sub out Ibaka for Fisher.  Do you disagree with that?

ElMexiThunder
ElMexiThunder 5pts

@dancassidy35 @FF_pickups @dollarbillrussell And its nothing against Ibaka, its just size, and body frame when it comes to that aspect. Same reason why its hard for KD to post up on true PF's when he plays the 4. Same reason why KD couldn't guard Dirk, and Zbo the few times we ever tried it. Sometimes guys like Bynum, Howard, Gasols(Marc almost all the time, Pau not as much) and even though he is not taller Dejuan Blair(He is much bigger then Ibaka body size, so its like Ibaka trying to push up against a brick wall) they over power Ibaka.

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups  @dollarbillrussell Maybe switch that to 60-70. There are a fair amount of centers that are too strong for Ibaka.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @dollarbillrussell 

I totally agree with you.  Ibaka needs to be on the floor in the 4-spot nearly all of the time.  We shouldn't go small against another team if it means benching Ibaka.  To me, if we are going to go small, the 4-5 positions need to be Durant-Ibaka 100% of the time.

Trackbacks

  1. Thunder Player Power Rankings: Hardware for Serge Ibaka? | Daily Thunder.com says:
    April 23, 2012 at 12:54 pm

    [...] WEEK 1 | WEEK 2 | WEEK 3 | WEEK 4 | WEEK 5 | WEEK 6 | WEEK 7 | WEEK 8 | WEEK 9 | WEEK 10 | WEEK 11 | WEEK 12 | WEEK 13 | WEEK 14 | WEEK 15 | WEEK 16 [...]

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