Bill Barnwell of Grantland on OKC: “If the Thunder were truly bunkering down and avoiding turnovers in a way that they hadn’t during the regular season, we would have already seen it in the first round, right? You can be the judge of that. Consider that in their four-game sweep of the Mavericks, Oklahoma City turned the ball over on 13.9 percent of their possessions. During the regular season, the Mavericks forced turnovers on … 13.9 percent of their opposition’s possessions. That’s average, and while average is still significantly better than the terrible turnover rate the Thunder had during the regular season, it’s not enough to justify believing that they’ve fundamentally changed their game during the playoffs.”
Noam Schiller for HP on defending Duncan: “If I’m Scott Brooks, I probably guard him with Perkins, because I’m Scott Brooks and I’ve yet to realize that my team has been better in every conceivable measure without the lumbering big man on the court (though, to be fair, this hasn’t been the case in the playoffs, I’d take the 66 game regular season sample over the 9 game sample that includes 5 games against the team Perk is most suited to play). If I’m not Scott Brooks, I give Perk a tip of the cap and go Nick Collison, who actually has the combination of strength and speed to prevent total obliteration at the hands of Timmy. Regardless, it’s not Serge, who is essential to the Thunder defense because of his ability to roam off the ball and provide aerial defense from guard penetration, the likes of which Tony Parker would be happy to supply by the bundle.”
Danny Chau for The Classical on Westbrook: “Yet, the thought of “accepting” a one-assist outing from Westbrook doesn’t settle well traditional notions. We like it when our point guards pass. We like it because it makes sense, and what is a point guard if not a player who makes sense of his surroundings? We want our point guards to temper the chaos so that things are simpler on the court and easier on our eyes. When a point guard breaks down a defense, it’s an affirmation of how simple the game can be, of how triumph can be broken down into a set of formulas. Follow the established rules and victory awaits. Point guards are thus brokers of tradition and order, guarding the faint belief that traditional roles themselves provide a blueprint for victory. It’s never that easy.”
How KD can become the best player in the NBA.
Clark Matthews of The Lost Ogle on the WCF: “Don’t let guys who couldn’t start in college destroy you – Danny Green was a bench player most of his college career. Then he got to the pros and fizzled out with the Cavaliers. So, of course, he winds up with a title contender, gets into the starting line up, and begins draining three pointers like he’s Ray Allen and playing defense like he’s Bruce Bowen.”
Police have made arrests in the Bricktown shooting.
Rob Mahoney for the NYT: “In all, the Thunder are set to play the most capable offensive and defensive opponent of its playoff run, and despite considerable advantages in other areas, Oklahoma City’s capacity for offensive rebounding – whether in big or small lineups – seems all but lost. Shot creation and ball control will thus be at an incredible premium, meaning the Thunder’s chances off keeping pace with the white-hot Spurs hinge on its greatest strength and most crippling weakness.”
Bill Simmons: “Of those six Staples games, this one had the biggest big-picture ramifications: not just Kobe stubbornly shooting the Lakers’ lead away, but Durant and Westbrook continuing to drift away from their once-dangerous Stringer/Avon dynamic. As we creep toward the Finals, you start looking for contenders with defined identities, which is what makes Oklahoma City so interesting. We know what the Zombies are at this point: They’re going to thrive because of chemistry, athleticism, interior defense and shot making — in that order — but without Westbrook accepting those occasional “I was the best player tonight and the biggest reason we won, but Kevin made the game-winning shot and got all the attention” nights, the whole thing could collapse.”
KD’s mom talks about, well, KD.
Andrew Sharp of SB Nation: “If you’re wondering why the Thunder are the most addictive team in basketball, the answer is Russell Westbrook. Even beyond his awesomely ridiculous outfits every night. As a player the past two rounds, he’s been the most magnetic personality of anyone on the court. This is strange for me, having loved the Thunder for a few years now in spite of Westbrook. I still wonder whether the Thunder would’ve been better off trading him for Chris Paul two years ago. For a while, I wondered whether Westbrook would’ve been better off.”
Jordan Schultz of the Huffington Post: “The Parker vs. Westbrook matchup will pit arguably the two best and hottest point guards currently in the NBA against one another. While both teams surely possess excellent offensive balance and an arsenal of other weapons, their overall success still hinges on their lead guards. And whoever wins that battle will very likely have his team headed to the Finals.”
The x-factor for this series is going to be KD. He is going to need to step up in a big way defensively if we're going to have a chance to win. He needs to guard the perimeter like his life depends on it.
The Thunder can handle the inside, but the outside is what's most dangerous about this Spurs team
Goldstein part 2: http://www.gq.com/blogs/the-q/2012/05/jimmy-speaks-the-goldstein-chronicles-part-ii.html
Westbrook > Parker
Harden > Ginobili
KD > anybody you want to put in there
Ibaka > Blair/Splitter
Perk < Duncan
It's as simple as that.
@aise0603 I'm not so sure about this characterization. Look at the stat comparisons from this season (http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=hardeja01&y1=2012&p2=ginobma01&y2=2012&p3=westbru01&y3=2012&p4=parketo01&y4=2012) Ginobili has a better numbers than Harden in nearly every single (per 36 minute) category, and while most are fairly close, he's way ahead in assists. And look at the Parker v. Westbrook stats - Westbrook scores about 4 more points per 36, but Parker dishes about 3 more assists per 36, so they're basically accounting for the same scoring amount. Westbrook has a better 3P%, but Parker has a better overall %. It's closer than you think. I agree with you on the KD > anybody and Duncan > Perk characterizations, but you left out Diaw and Bonner for consideration with Ibaka. I doubt he's better than them offensively when he's guarding 20 feet from the basket, and he's certainly not a points man himself. Ibaka's effectiveness will really depend on who the Spurs have in at the time.
Lastly, just for discussion, take a look at the March 16 box score (the one that gives me the most hope for the Spurs) - http://espn.go.com/nba/boxscore?gameId=320316025. 1) Manu didn't even play. 2) Blair put up 22 points. 3) OKC's big three combined for 80 (12 more than their combined season averages), and yet 4) The spurs had five guys in double figures and won handily. And the final score doesn't even reflect that the Spurs were up 27 in the first half and 20 late in the 3rd. OKC made a late run, but I'll take that game result any day.
Basically, I think Ironm8 has it correct - it's much more complicated than just matching up individual positions. 12 different players led the Spurs in scoring in a game this year, which is just ridiculous. 8 guys averaged more than nine points a game for the season (and a ninth guy averaged 8.9) - also ridiculous. At any given time we have three players on the court who knock down 3s at better than 40%. The Thunder DO have the talent to expose us in certain ways - I'm not denying that - but it's not going to be by outplaying us one-on-one, because we don't play that game.
@aise0603 I'd argue that Clipper are also more talented and younger than the Spurs. Yet they got swept. If you didn't see them play, you might find a full game online.
Not only that you will enjoy it, you will see that their sum is some much bigger than their parts it's almost insane. They start a rookie and a guy who was waived by the Cavs last year for heavens sake.
@ironm8
I mean, the Clippers are good but they are fairly 1-dimensional. The Thunder are far more difficult to defend. Plus the Thunder are way more athletic and long, that coupled with a team commitment to defense will be the difference in this series.
@aise0603 yes. because of KD.
@ironm8
oic, I think I was just misunderstanding your posts! I apologize! I think that we agree on most things then, if you are agreeing that the Thunder have the better roster.
@aise0603 I wrote "you will see that their sum is some much bigger than their parts it's almost insane." That;s what I meant. This team has no business being where it is.
@ironm8
Yeah, I agree. I mean, let me put it like this. If the coaching staff were switched at the beginning of the year, do you really think that a Scott Brooks led Spurs team would be the favorite? I mean seriously, the roster that the Thunder have is clearly better than the Spurs.
@aise0603 Yea, my bad. I wanted to write that KD is the real x-factor.
About their fg% defense, same can be said about the TO% for the Thunder.
Game I will give us most of the information.
@ironm8 "By any law of chance and consistency, they can't be THAT consistent without being THIS good."
Do you remember this team?
http://www.nba.com/rockets/news/RocketsCeltics_recap-263333-34.html
Did I mention that they lost in the first round of the playoffs? Yes, the Spurs are good but a lot of their success has been predicated on schedule. The Thunder have the better roster, the Spurs have a better coach and home court advantage. I could see this series going either way.
@ironm8
As for lineups, the total talent level at point, shooting guard, power forward and center combined are pretty close but you didn't mention KD. That's where the mismatch is. KD is a complete nightmare for this Spurs team.
As for the Spurs D, I think you are missing the fact that the Spurs were 17th in field goal % defense this regular season. Yes, they had a good series but you can expect a regression to the mean against the much more difficult to defend Thunder
@aise0603 I could go on and on. Parker was surprisingly decent guarding CP3.
All I want is to give everyone a lever-headed look at this series. They started the season 12-9. Since then they are like 60-7! won 29 of 32, 18 of 19 on the road. By any law of chance and consistency, they can't be THAT consistent without being THIS good.
@aise0603 Actually I don't. I think it's a wash. Is Harden a better player? offensively maybe. But defensively? his defensive rating is awful. his on-ball defensive skills are lacking. Manu is a defensive beast.
How much is Russ better than Parker? They absolutely can't guard each other, Parker went off on Westbrook way too many times for me to trust him defensively.
Like i said i've seen all Spurs games this playoffs. They pack the paint like no other team, they will 'blue'[tell me if you need explanation] every pick'n'roll and they will double Durant once they think he commits for his own shot. That;s why they do - they understand that stars have the mindset to shoot the most so they actually telling to let Thabo or Ibaka beat them. They are so disciplined it's insane, so if they can get this done, Scotty is in trouble.
@ironm8 "But you made a little comparison and said "Well, here we go! no problem""
Good point! I may be oversimplifying things. But you would at least agree that we've got the better players, right?
@Jooseppi @aise0603 come on, you know what I mean. more points as in run'n'gun. 120 ppg in a non-blowout win.
@ironm8 @aise0603 Generally you need to score more points than the other team to win.
@Thunder S @ironm8
I agree Thunder S. Plus if you do that lineup comparison with the Spurs vs. Clippers, The Spurs are better in 3 spots(shooting guard, small forward and center)
@aise0603 That's true. But you made a little comparison and said "Well, here we go! no problem" I think Blake Griffin saw a similar graph before the first game...
I still think there is no way Thunder can stop Spurs on offense. No way.
So they will need to score more points.
@aise0603 @ironm8 yea i think the length thing will be more of a factor. everyone on the clippers is pretty much short for their position, whereas everyone on the thunder starting 5 is tall for their position.
Some cold water about the WCF: Spurs are actually 4th in Defensive efficiency in those playoffs while playing against two MUCH more capable offenses in Clips[4th] and Jazz[7th] other than Lakers[10th with a huge drop-off in last weeks] and Mavs[20th!].
Also, Mavs and Lakers both were really the best match-up ever for the Thunder. 2 of the least athletic teams in the playoffs.
That's what I fear for the Thunder, they can go small - this will be the ONLY way they can win. Otherwise Ibaka with roam in the paint and Bonner and Diaw will have a field day outside. Thing is Spurs can also move Kawhi to 4, and play Manu Green and Parker. If a line-up with Thabo,Durant,Rus and Harden can't dominate offensively I can see the Thunder being gone faster than we can think.
I've watched all Spurs games this post-season - They will score 110 points. Take this as a fact. Question if KD and RW can score 115.
@ironm8 Spurs haven't played anybody close to their level. Same with Thunder. Will be a fun series.
@ironm8
The playoffs are all about matchups, taking what the Thunder did against the Lakers isn't all that salient to what they'll do against the Spurs. How does Bonner get on the floor if the Thunder go small? If we move KD to the 4, Bonner can't play. KD can easily matchup with Bonner but who is he going to guard in the small ball lineup?
@aise0603 That's why I said going small is the ONLY way. Thunder will get killed any other ways. Diaw has been amazing, he used to be a SF in Phoenix so he us much more mobile than you'd think, he is an unbelievable passer and he is can make 3's. You'd want to limit his time on the floor to the minimum. Only way for that is small-ball.
@lemonparade4 @aise0603 The idea is that the Spurs are actually have a much bigger advantage over OKC if Diaw or Bonner are in the game. Simply put, they are both threats from deep while Perkins and Ibaka aren't. So Spurs basically gain a spacing advantage which is really crucial. By playing Ibaka at Center and KD at the 4, Diaw or Bonner are out and teams are evenly spaced.
@aise0603 @ironm8 I'm still trying to wrap my head around this - "small lineup" simply means that Harden comes in and either Ibaka and Perk go out, right? If so, why wouldn't the Spurs just counter by inserting Ginobili and taking out Diaw or Duncan? Durant's the same height at the 4 as he is at the 3 (lol if he isn't . . . somehow), so why wouldn't Leonard be guarding him at both spots?
@ironm8
Oh, I totally agree. Sorry, I misunderstood your post, I thought you were saying that the Thunder would have to matchup with the Spurs. i.e. if the Spurs went big, we'd have to match. I think that this series is different from the last series in that we don't have to match them, they have to match us. We will control the lineup flows because KD can play the 4 against them and they don't have anyone to stop that. Nowitzki, Gasol and Zebo in the last 3 playoff series were the power forwards and they all controlled that aspect but the Spurs don't have anyone near that at the 4. I think going small makes the Thunder insanely dangerous.
Won't the Thunder try to go small in this series a lot? Couldn't you see this rotation used a lot?:
Westbrook - Harden - Fisher - KD - Serge/Perk/Collison
I think the Spurs will have a lot of trouble trying to matchup with this lineup.
@aise0603 If the Spurs plan on sticking to their new playoff rotation, it will mean more small ball for the Thunder. Ibaka is not much use playing away from the basket against stretch 4's. So, I would agree Brooks will probably use variations of his small ball lineup.
I disagree that he won't use Thabo at all this those lineups. Typically I would agree with that, but Fisher does not match up well with anyone in this series. Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me to even see KD at the 5 if the Thunder start struggling for answers.
@BRY BRY @aise0603 I don't know about KD at the 5... could happen briefly. But Sefolosha might see some time at the 4 with a real big at some point. Nazr shouldn't be playing.
@BRY BRY
I'm not saying *at all* in those lineups but I bet that the small ball lineup has a lot more Fisher and a lot less Sefolosha. And that's on Brooks, not on me. I'm not predicting what I would do, I'm predicting what Brooks will do.
@aise0603 I'd much rather see Sefolosha get those minutes (over Fisher). Fish can't hang defensively and on the glass unless Neal is on the court, and the Spurs' long wings won't allow him to shoot wide-open threes. We'll have to see if Serge can handle Duncan one-on-one. If so, RW-JH-TS-KD-SI is a freaking awesome lineup in this series.
@ATH I mean, I don't disagree with you but you know who does disagree with you? Scott Brooks. Not trying to be insulting but realistically, I don't think the lineup that you are suggesting will see the light of day in this series. How do you think the lineup that I suggested will fare?
@ATH
I personally don't think that Fisher or Sefolosha are the key. Sefolosha may be better but it will be marginal. What I am excited about is the fact that KD, Westbrook and Harden are going to have significant size/speed/athleticism advantages in this lineup.
@ATH
I just looked it up on NBA.com and, in the Dallas series, Fisher has been in the top 4 most used by min. small ball lineup, Sefolosha is in the 5th most used, which was only used for 6 minutes in the entire series.
@aise0603 I don't want to underestimate Harden. He's capable of covering Manu. That isn't a major concern. I just don't want to see Sef wasted on Danny Green all series. Fisher's matchups are the big concern.
@aise0603 I think you're right. Brooks will stick with what he's been doing. But I think it could be disastrous. Fisher playing screws up all the defensive matchups. Harden guarding Ginobili could be pretty bad. And Fisher guarding Leonard or Green or SJax?
If it's disastrous early, Brooks might adjust.
@ATH
I'll bet you that Fisher plays more minutes in this series than Sefolosha in the small ball lineup. I'd bet he plays more than double the minutes of Sefolosha in that lineup. I'm not saying that you are wrong about what *should* happen, but I'll will be stunned if Brooks doesn't play Fisher almost exclusively in the small ball lineups.
@aise0603 Yes.
@ATH "It could fare very badly"
So you think the key to the lineup is Sefolosha and Fisher? Because you said the exact same lineup with Sefolosha would be dominant but with Fisher would 'fare very badly'. Am I understanding you correctly?
@aise0603 Obviously Fisher needs to play at least ten minutes a night, just limit his time against wings and, for the love, Tony Parker.
@aise0603 It could fare very badly. The big adjustment I hope Brooks makes -- if Pop inserts Manu about the same time as Harden -- is going small early. Sub Harden in for Ibaka, let Sefolosha stay in to guard Ginobili. Then run Ibaka all second quarter, at PF/C. Don't play Nazr. Only play Fisher if Neal's playing, only play Cook if he doesn't have to guard SJax, who I see abusing him ala Vince Carter. Anyway, that lineup you suggested will get run. But we have the pieces to match up perfectly.
these LLOOONNNGGG breaks in between rounds are killing me...geez thanks Thunder for going 8-1 in the playoffs... lol
read this articlehttp://www.startribune.com/sports/wolves/152804215.html
@tydude I sent a reply to his email. Doubt he'll read it. I would post here but it's long.
Just bought my tickets to game 3 (yes, sold my soul to ticketexchange) . . .
We were saying last week that the expense is worth it--kind of like in those old MasterCard commercials. If you missed it yesterday, check out this cool little video made by our airport rat, Tronchaser.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nH5X8a3liC0
@ThunderChick2010 i just let them charge my credit card for the tickets so i dont feel that hit to my wallet for another month.
Serge made it to the All Defensive FIRST Team!
Chandler... did not.
BTW: Russ received 2 votes for the first team and 5 for the second. Thabo one frist and 3 second
@diddoff deng is in 2nd team,Marion is not,
@diddoff lol, so DPOY not all nba defensive 1st team
thats crazy right there
@f5alcon @diddoff How does that happen?
@ThunderChick2010 @f5alcon Media members vote the player awards, coaches the teams
@f5alcon Odd votes: Boozer, Holiday, Rose, Joe Johnson
@diddoff @f5alcon where amazing happens
Complete first team: Paul-Allen-James-Ibaka-Howard