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3-on-3: Script flipped

by Royce Young on June 5, 2012 at 5:45 pm 487 Comments

D. Clarke Evans/NBAE/Getty Images

A day later and it’s still hard to believe. The Thunder are a game away. But that’s a scary prospect because there’s also a whole lot of pressure that comes with that. Yes, Oklahoma City has an advantage trying to close at home. At the same time though, a loss means the Thunder have to return to San Antonio and try and do this all over again.

But that’s three straight for the Thunder against the Unbeatable Team. Something’s changed. What happens now?

1. Are the Thunder the clear title favorite right now?

Royce Young, Daily Thunder: That sound you heard was me throwing up all over myself. Just the thought of it is enough to cause severe bouts of anxiety. But the fact is, they are. They have to be. They’ve topped the best team in basketball three straight times, they’re healthy and they’re playing exceptionally well. Being a “favorite” is a very fluid thing that can change with one game, but at this moment, the Thunder seem to be in control of their own destiny.

Patrick James, Daily Thunder: How can they not be? Even if the Celtics pull their own Thunder and win Game 5 tonight in Miami, would anyone install them as the favorite in the Finals without home court? I don’t think Miami’s recent struggles late and an ailing Chris Bosh would convince odds-makers to do that for the Heat, either. Quite simply, other than a tough stretch from the fourth quarter of Game 1 through the third quarter of Game 2, the Thunder have been playing basketball as well this postseason as anyone has all year. The biggest development is OKC’s propensity to share the ball, especially early in games. It makes the Thunder look simply unbeatable.

Kevin Arnovitz, ESPN.com: Clarity is a relative and fleeting things in sports, but given that they’re the only of the remaining four teams currently leading a best-of-seven series andwhose core is both young and healthy, that’s a fair statement. The clincher is the manner in which the Thunder’s offense is moving the ball. That’s always been the rub with the Thunder, that if you dropped them into a series against a tight, pressure-oriented defensive scheme, that they couldn’t find the weak side of the floor with a pass. That’s clearly no longer the case.

2. Is Scott Brooks out-coaching Gregg Popovich? Or is he simply riding the wave created by superior talent?

Young: I’m not a big fan of the out-coaching thing. Because if your team plays poorly and the other good, all of a sudden you’re being “out-coached.” When in reality, your team’s just not playing great. But I do think Brooks has pushed buttons better than Popovich. Brooks wasn’t afraid to make a few clear adjustments in Game 3, while Pop might’ve waited too long to make any significant moves. And it’s still confusing to me why DeJuan Blair isn’t seeing 20-25 minutes a game against the Thunder. Brooks is managing his roster well enough, which is really sometimes all he needs to do. Know when to make a move, and know when to get the hell out of the way.

James: Brooks has the superior talent, but where things stand now, you can’t deny he’s done a better coaching job. The evidence is that his adjustments have worked, and San Antonio’s adjustments have not. If you recover from going down 2-0 in a series to lead it, you’ve made the right moves. For example, Brooks had to put on his thinking cap less than a minute into Game 5 when he already had to adjust to foul trouble, and he didn’t flinch. The Thunder ended that quarter in the lead. He’s kept his bench players ready and motivated, his star players are sharing the ball, and his team is winning. Brooks is coming into his own right along with the team.

Arnovitz: I’m always skittish about tallying up the coaching battle in-series because so much of a coach’s performance is the aggregate product of preparation over a number of years. Brooks has never been regarded as a tactical genius, but his growth over the past week has been as profound as any player’s on his roster. The Thunder have the superior talent, but Brooks has deployed it in a sophisticated way.

3. Does it end Wednesday?

Young: It has to. Wait, I shouldn’t say that. It needs to. Desperately. The prospect of losing Game 6 means the Thunder have to find a way to repeat Game 5. Which wouldn’t be easy. Plus, the mental murder losing Game 6 on your home floor could be devastating. It would be hard to bounce back from that. The Thunder will play for blood Wednesday and when they’re focused and energized, most times, teams can’t hang with them.

James:  Yes. Can anyone see this roll ending in front of what is sure to be the most rabid crowd in Oklahoma City’s history of rabid NBA crowds? The NBA Finals are coming to Oklahoma next week. Think about that.

Arnovitz: Most likely. The Thunder are still posting some eye-popping and probably unsustainable shooting numbers from 16 feet and beyond, but I’m also convinced they can do enough defensively and have learned how to move the ball against the slower Spurs to get a close-out win.

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3-on-3
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FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas  on max contracts:

I think your philosophy is perfectly reasonable.  I have a different philosophy but my opinion isn't nearly strong enough to say that I believe you are definitively wrong.  If you are interested in my opinion, the short version is I think it boils down to supply and demand and the CBA restrictions.  These things lead, imo, to Harden and Ibaka both being max contract guys.

 

 

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas The long version is: the way that I look at it, I see that a team has a cap at around 58 million that it can spend for a roster and a max contract for these fellows is 25% of the 58 million = 14.5 m/yr (this is an estimate but it's pretty close.)  But the cap is a soft cap and it actually goes up to ~70 million before you start paying luxury tax.  This is what we the number we are shooting for for our entire payroll.  Also, if there was no such thing as a maximum contract and all players were allowed to make any percentage of the 70 million, then players like KD and Westbrook would be getting a lot more than 14.5 m/yr.  KD would be at least a 30 m/yr guy.  But because you can only pay these guys 25% of the cap, every team can easily afford 3 max contracts (veterans get more than that so it's slightly more complicated than this).  So if we say that there are 30 teams that can afford 3 max contracts apiece, then it could be argued that the top 90 are max contract players in the NBA.  I think that's too many but I think if you are top 50 in the NBA (depending on age), you should be a max contract.  Harden is EASILY top 50 and Ibaka is definitely knocking on that door.  When you factor in age, I believe he's a max contract.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups As I said in the other thread, I think if they hit the open market, somebody's going to throw that money their way. But I guess my idea of max contract is more academic, and in a vacuum of sorts, whereas yours is more rooted in the practicalities of the NBA.

 

Your points are definitely well made though. I just hope that Presti can sell the opportunity to have something really special to these guys and make them take less just to stick around.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas 

Totally.  There are a lot of stupid people out there. 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups So sort of a "worth more to me to keep because it works than the cost of replacing his production"? That's a good way to look at it too. And certainly explains the Josh Smith signing. I also look at teams like New York or Dallas and think that they will overpay just to get big names.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas 

Yeah, and I've thought a little more about what this and I think a marginal max contract guy, like a Josh Smith or a Harden would be a stupid signing for a lot of teams where that guy takes you from bad to marginal.  If you are bad, you get really high draft picks which could turn into KD's and RW's but if you are marginal, you get marginal draft picks, you are kind of in purgatory.  But for a team like the Thunder who isn't in purgatory, I think giving these guys max contracts is even more correct because we aren't getting high picks in the draft so if we don't keep them then it is unlikely we will get a viable replacement.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

Lebron James is 6-16 in his last 22 playoff games decided by 4 points or less.  Ladies and Gentleman, your MVP.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @FF_pickups FF, replied to your question in the previous thread re: max contracts. Sorry for taking so long. :)

ghendrix6
ghendrix6 5pts

Oh great, we get Joey Crawford tonight.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/06/wednesday-bolts-6-6-12/

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Love the THUNDERSTORM rolling through OKC right now.

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Tronchaser

 Did you get tickets???

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ThunderChick2010 I'll be there. :)

Thunderbuzzy
Thunderbuzzy 5pts

 @Tronchaser  @ThunderChick2010 I'm so jealous. I wish I could go to a playoff game lol I want too so bad. Maybe I can make one next year.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

I know it was asked yesterday, and may have been answered/posted already but here's a pretty good stat:

 

Before both Boston and OKC did it this year, there have been 5 teams that have come back to be up 3-2 having started down 0-2. 3 of those 5 have gone on to win the series (Don't know if it's in game 6 or in game 7).

 

Meaningless, I know, but let's become #4 tonight! Thunder Up!

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@HPbasketball: Playoffs this year, ahead or behind five points, LeBron James 6 of 19, Kobe 7 of 23 in the playoffs. Rondo 16 of 31, Durant 12 of 20. ( https://twitter.com/HPbasketball/status/210394297441325056 )

 

Kid Clutch, indeed.

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

The waiting is the hardest part . . .

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uMyCa35_mOg&ob=av2e

 

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts

Every day you seen one more card.

You take it on faith, you take it to the heart.

The waaaaaa-ai-ting is the HARDEST part!

 

Thunderbuzzy
Thunderbuzzy 5pts

 @ThunderChick2010 I love me some Tom Petty

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts

 @Thunderbuzzy  @ThunderChick2010 is is just me? Back in the 80s, I thought Tom Petty looked like an American Girl.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

One of the things we've seen these playoffs is Thabo maturing as a leader on defense. He's calling stuff out and telling everybody which way the play is going to develop. Big for OKC.

TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard
TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard 5pts

 @Jooseppi huge, especially if Perk is amnestied. I'd love to pick up KG on the MLE to replace/ compliment Perk. We'd be one heckuva ridiculous defense

Keith00
Keith00 5pts

 @JimboSlice  @Jooseppi I have a feeling he'll be re-signed in Boston for 2 years, 14 million, player option on the second year. Even at 36, he's worth more than the MLE, especially to Boston.

ThunderBelize
ThunderBelize 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Okay no bolts yet so I gotta work... 

 

LETS GO THUNDER!!!

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

I hope Bosh gets back to 100 percent, Heat win or lose. US needs any able-bodied big for the Olympics.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 RT: @JMcDonald_SAEN: Per Pop, Gary Neal (stomach illness) is expected in OKC this afternoon. Should play tonight.

cleandoe
cleandoe 5pts

 @Jooseppi he ain't no mj - let it throw him of his game

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts

 @cleandoe  @Jooseppi Thats huge considering how bad Danny Green has been playing

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @JimboSlice  @Tronchaser  @Jooseppi  @anonymous12345  @cleandoe I thought that was Cole...

TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard
TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @Tronchaser  @Jooseppi  @anonymous12345  @cleandoe Lazar plays his role better than anybody in the NBA. Of course, his role is Victory/ White Flag waiver.

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @Jooseppi  @Tronchaser  @anonymous12345  @cleandoe

 So they go around asking if players are "better than Bonner"?   :)

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @anonymous12345  @cleandoe The bad thing for them is they expect him to contribute ( like all their bench players), the good for us is that Lazar only sees the court when we are up by 30

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Tronchaser  @anonymous12345  @cleandoe The Spurs fan hatred of Bonner is absolutely unreal. It's like if Lazar actually played.

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @anonymous12345  @cleandoe  @Jooseppi That's ok.. Bonner will step up.

 

*crickets*

 

*crickets*

 

Ok, maybe not.

TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard
TheresABabyFaceUnderMyBeard 5pts

Headline on RealGM: "Royce White has learned to cope with fear of flying"

 

The Royce White pipe dream continues to grow further and further away for us.... :(

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @JimboSlice yeah a few million would ease my fears as well

Thunderbuzzy
Thunderbuzzy 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

The picture up top of Harden drilling the 3. I wish we had a close up of Parker and Duncan's face as it goes in. It looks like they are constipated back there and about the $hit themselves.

CTizzle4Rizzle
CTizzle4Rizzle 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

I'm nervous as hell about tonight, but I'm damn sure excited, too. Any ideas on how to get time to pass faster today?

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CTizzle4Rizzle you could always search for a graphic to use as your avatar....um, nevermind.

CTizzle4Rizzle
CTizzle4Rizzle 5pts

Ooh I found something I can do! Come on, breakfast!

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts

 @CTizzle4Rizzle Golden Corral....then just nap in between trips....easily a good 5 - 6 hours

Thunderbuzzy
Thunderbuzzy 5pts

 @CTizzle4Rizzle There you go! Go to Denny's and eat so much you have to take a nap!

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts

 @CTizzle4Rizzle http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PNGM50vQXYk

treytech
treytech 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @CTizzle4Rizzle You could freeze yourself like Cartman when he was waiting for the Wii.

CTizzle4Rizzle
CTizzle4Rizzle 5pts

I could always get some work in today. That will probably help, too.

Thunderbuzzy
Thunderbuzzy 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @CTizzle4Rizzle Find something totally unrelated with basketball and stick with it awhile. I find the more I come to these sites and others the worse the fever gets!!

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts

 @CTizzle4Rizzle http://chrome.angrybirds.com/

blueRAP
blueRAP 5pts

 @CTizzle4Rizzle 10 hour tranquilizer 

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CTizzle4Rizzle http://www.literature.org/authors/

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 RT: @HPbasketball: Most arrogant thing I ever heard from Heat wasn't "Not one, not two..." It was Wade that summer. "The hard part's over."

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Jooseppi yeah thats why i like watching them lose, it was teh arrogance that annoys me. Next year wont be easier for them, the bulls will have a worse record than their talent with rose missing half the season, so an early round battle between those teams is likely.

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