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As other teams ran the free agency rat race — overpaying for talent, making deals, signing veterans looking to chase a championship — the Thunder had a very Thunder-like offseason.
Uneventful.
All it amounted to was trading Nazr Mohammed, Derek Fisher and Royal Ivey for Perry Jones III, Hasheem Thabeet and Hollis Thompson. An upgrade? Hard to know with the unknowns of two rookies and a bust, but it’s probably at least a push.
What the Thunder do lose though is three very solid veteran voices. Obviously Scott Brooks and Sam Presit feel that between the experiences of the last couples seasons along with a few older guys like Nick Collison and Kendrick Perkins that the Thunder have plenty of it. Because no more Fisher, no more Mohammed, no more Ivey. That’s 38 seasons of NBA experience replaced with three, and those are all from Thabeet.
But for Oklahoma City, it’s hard to mess up the offseason right now. This team is in a unique position of basically doing extremely well with roster moves by not doing anything at all. The way the team is built, just a summer to let the young players get better, mature and develop is the best thing that can happen in terms of team improvement.
I saw where some fans were frustrated to see other teams like the Heat go sign players like Ray Allen and Rashard Lewis. But if you really wanted the Thunder to make some kind of free agency splash, then you’ve clearly lost sight of the vision of this team. It’s one that’s constructed to have a group of young players grow together. And in order to do that, the future is always an issue and anything that clouds it is unwelcome. Meaning any long-term contract that could potentially impact re-signing players or keeping the core together is a very bad idea.
So signing Grant Hill or Allen or Steve Nash makes zero sense. Would it improve the team for a season? Sure. But could it also mean you have to waive goodbye to James Harden or Serge Ibaka, guaranteed? Indeed. Not an ideal trade. Really, the only way the Thunder could screw up this offseason was by doing something drastic, like trading Harden for the No. 2 pick or something.
The focus is to re-sign the core that was carefully, meticulously, painstakingly assembled. Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook have already been done. Now it’s on to Harden and Ibaka, and maybe Eric Maynor. Where do things stand on that front? With Harden and Ibaka participating in the Olympics negotiations appear to be a tad frozen on those fronts out of respect to their teams, at least according to a few well informed people. Likely talks will pick up after those players finish fulfilling their national team duties.
As for the players they did sign? Hasheem Thabeet, while a former No. 2 overall pick, isn’t anything to get stoked over. Nor is an undrafted rookie. Perry Jones is intriguing, but for the most part, the Thunder’s personnel moves are pretty uninspiring.
But, what the moves accomplished is to restock the roster on a dime. Consider this: Assuming Nazr Mohammed would’ve signed for a veteran minimum deal, he would’ve cost $1.5 million for next season. Thabeet is signed for $860,000. Derek Fisher is probably looking for something in the $2-3 million range. Hollis Thompson comes in at just over $400,000. Royal Ivey’s vet minimum contract would’ve been for about $1.2 million. Perry Jones’ rookie deal has him at right at $1 million. So that’s some money saved.
And yes, Thabeet is mostly garbage, but like I’ve said, there’s potential there. It’s low risk, potentially high reward. Assuming Cole Aldrich can at least play as well as Mohammed did last season. (Or maybe Thabeet even. It’s not impossible Thabeet beats Aldrich out in training camp. But if that happens, what Aldrich’s career might be on life support.)
Thompson is a 3-point marksman whose uniform will likely be a suit this season, but with the future in mind, he’s a nice piece to put in the program. Daequan Cook is only under contract for another season and if Thompson can grow into at least that, the Thunder have a replacement shooter bought cheap. Remember: future in mind.
And of course Jones is the sweet, delicious icing on this otherwise pretty gross cake. What he had time to show in Orlando was impressive and while I’m not entirely sure he’s going to find real minutes next season, having his talent in the Thunder program could pay major dividends. Any time you put that kind of ability into your system, you have the chance to reap serious rewards. The Thunder grabbed Jones because of feared future medical issues, but for once, the Thunder didn’t appear to be thinking in the long-term. Which of course, was wise.
GRADE: A. Like I said, nothing earth-shattering, nothing that shook anything up, no significant signing. But that doesn’t mean it wasn’t successful. The Thunder are penciled in for a good offseason just by virtue of the team already in place. It’s the Thunder curve. Whatever transactions are made, no matter how small, are amplified by the fact the team is already very, very good and still has Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, James Harden, et al. It’s an easy A. Kind of like getting a 200 or whatever on the SAT just by spelling your name right.
The existing roster has three months to improve and develop (with four players doing so at the Olympics), the subtractions were acceptable additions and don’t forget, the Thunder get back Eric Maynor next season. Which almost like a terrific signing in its own right.
A solid offseason and one that could really only be screwed up. And as you know, the Thunder front office doesn’t do that very often.
If you place our core players( KD, Russ, Beard, Serge) growth ,statistically, on a bell curve I dont believe they all have reached the top of the precipice. KD and Russ almost certainly have more to grow. I do fear, however, that Harden may be reaching his peake. Serge may not reach his just because no one really know what it is.(i dont at least. I mean scorer, post player, or just defender?) Harden at his peake may not be a bad thing,mind you, i just believe the continued improvement of this Thunder team will come from KD,Russ, and new members (PJ3, Reggie). IF our core has maxed out( i dont believe so) Presti wouldn't have re-hired Brooks. Sceme would then be the only thing we could improve upon.
@Bsooreal Harden minus 10-15 pounds probably has upside. Harden post big contract might stay or even get more Jumbo, with an eat too much, train too little routine.
@Bsooreal KD is the kind of player you can see constantly evolving his game to deal with changing realities - just like Kobe and Michael had to. He's more of a true wing, obviously, so that helps his game's longevity, but still. Russ is going to have some problems - like Kidd, among others, did - when his athleticism slows a step, but he has the potential to be productive for a long while too. Agree on the rest of your points too.
@ou_sas I think Russ' defensive capabilities will come into play more when he slows down.
@Bsooreal And when he's focused on it more consistently. He could be the defensive player he was hyped as in college if he wanted to maintain the pressure all game long.
http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/07/thursday-bolts-7-19-12/
I just posted this ~150 comments down, but since I know everyone's lazy in the morning, I'm going to post it up here too:
We need to get Royce to devote a post entirely to FAQs. A READ THIS S*#t FIRST-type of thing. Maybe also include links to good bloggers/reporters to follow and good stats websites.
This might - might, mind you - alleviate some of the questions we get - that I'm sometimes responsible for too, if I'm honest - about contracts, etc.
@ou_sas hey what if if KD and Westbrook renegotiated their contracts then we would be able to sign james and serge!!!!
@Lost Ones Did you hear that Sullenger is dropping into the 20s?
@ou_sas @Lost Ones
We can when the lockout is over, if we have basketball reasons.
@Lost Ones Could we trade up for him?!
@ou_sas oh shit REALLY!!!!
If you stick with Westbrook, Harden, Durant, Ibaka the choice is stick with most or all the rest of the rotation or make some significant change. Presti right now is sticking with all of the rest except Fisher & Mohammed. A very modest change.
@Crow Probably felt he got all of the potential value from either of them over players he already has. May as well start working on developing younger players at that point, or try and get some value out of those roster slots. PG is shored up again with the return of Maynor and a year of training camp for RJ. Backup center is still a question mark, but you have two potential candidates, plus the option of going small and reducing time at that position anyways. Not a bad time to cut bait and run.
@Crow
Kind of hoping the lineup consists of a LOT of small ball this year. Something like:
Perk-Ibaka-KD-Sef-Russ
Main Bench Subs: Collison-Beard-Maynor
Situational/Growth Dependent: Cole-Cook/Thompson-PJ3
Give perk less minutes when we don't need him, otherwise give Ibaka a chance at the 5. I'd like PJ3 to move into a main bench role by the end of the season, but definitely growth dependent.
@SoonerSpens Ibaka isd not generally good at C in past usage but with research they might find some situations where that works for him, with the right guy at PF beside him.
@Crow do you think it's time to start harden?
@Lost Ones Probably not with the way Westbrook and Durant dominate the ball and the way Harden shrinks beside them and plays weak D.
@Crow yea, i think he's his most effective when westbrook plays off the ball, which harden has issues doing.
@Lost Ones With him as 6th man for most of the game may be the best way for those 3 to co-exist.
Heat, Celtics, Lakers all made significant changes.
Spurs, as I said before, already made their significant changes last season. But they probably should make more if they are serious. They may not. Stubborn pride from having won a lot. A fairly long time ago with younger stars.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct @Crow At some point you have to move on from Duncan and Manu, but with what they showed last season, you can't help yourself but believe that maybe they have another run or two in them. They may end up in the awkward position of hoping that their stars retire before they drop off too much.
@Crow I think the Spurs are loyal to that basic core in the same way the Yankees just overpaid Jeter - at the end of their prime you overpay as a way to keep the fans happy that their organization is showing loyalty to the face of their franchise.
Presti may have stubborn pride from having won a lot with younger stars. Enough or too much? Time will tell.
if the lakers get dwight we are in a tough position.
Spoelstra cut 3 rotation players substantially in the playoffs and at least one more modestly. i think Brook would get credit for maybe 1.5 time cuts (Cook and Mohammed). Probably should have done 4 or more like Spo. Didn't. Lost.
May have lost anyways though.
@Crow We didn't need Perk to play much in the finals. We definitely did not need Fisher to play 20+ minutes per game. So I agree. Brooks is way too stubborn with his rotations and his loyalty to bad players with competitive attitudes. Attitude can get you places, but it can't make you talented.
@Crow I liked Thabo for his perimeter D, but I agree with everyone who wanted less Perk minutes against Miami. Also less Fisher minutes.
If the Orl/LAL/Cle trade goes through, there is a silver lining.
Bynum goes to the East!
You have to love Bynum's ineptitude. He is keeping this trade from happening.
@Bsooreal
I don't think so. I may be wrong, but I think the new CBA says that you have to go to free agency to get that 5th year. I don't think he cares about where he plays, he just wants the full five year contract which if Orlando trades for him, would retain his Bird rights and be the only team that can offer him 5 years. Again, I may be wrong, but I would fully expect him to resign with Orlando after a trade.
@FF_pickups @Bsooreal You don't have to go into free agency for it, the team just needs Bird rights on you. Griffin just signed his 5-year extension and he's still got a year left until RFA.
@FF_pickups @Bsooreal Might be something specific to rookie extensions though.
I'm scared of the Lakers with Howard.
@C-Wil With MIke Brown as the coach they should be the best defensive team in the league. Even with old man mamba and the soccer player starting.
@C-Wil yeah their starting five would be ridiculously good
@C-Wil
terrified
How many games does Thabo play in this regular season?
In the playoffs 102 players played 20+ minutes per game. Thabo ranked 62nd of 102 on winshares per 48 minutes then. In the drive for a title against other top contenders do you stand pat with a below average starter?
Perkins was 84th on the same metric, so double and quadruple the intensity of the question.
@Crow
The problem with 'winshares' when evaluating these types of players is that is does a poor job of properly valuing defensive players.
@FF_pickups true. it is a semi-lazy stat to use but I don't feel like using RAPM for everything when it gets dismissed by many / most. winshares per 48 is one of the next least worst boxscore based stats.
@Crow @FF_pickups Thanks. Getting an idea of ranges, means, things like that help give one an idea of the value of the statistic. That gives me a good idea of how to use it. :)
@ou_sas @FF_pickups What is a winshare? For the season a winshare is worth 1 team win.
What are my ranges/averages? winshares per 48, .100 is aqbout average, ,200+ is star. .50 to .75 is decent rotation player level, less than .50 is weak.
@Crow @FF_pickups Some of those advanced stats feel a little arcane at times, which is why the general posting populace can be uncomfortable/dismissive of them. The trick is understanding what it is your stat is describing, as well as how it is calculated. I vaguely understand PER to be a conglomeration of a player's offensive production. I understand things like Usage and Rebounding percentages. I understand +/- from my Hockey days. But things like RAPM or winshares per 48 (What is a winshare? What is it worth? What are my ranges/averages?) are lost on me sometimes because I don't understand/know the creation/purpose of the statistic. I've tried reading some of the basketball-reference articles on these things, and it helps, but sometimes it doesn't. As such, I tend not to look at those stats on a daily basis. I do understand these stats have meaning and value, but those are lost on me sometimes. I can only imagine that plenty of other posters feel the same (or in the case of those with no math background, worse).
@FF_pickups @Crow It does still give you an idea of the
effectively of the player in question.
@Bsooreal @Crow
No it doesn't, not when you are talking about defensive specialists.
As with every year so far, I'd say the Thunder should be at least be "looking" to replace 2-3 starters. But as with every year so far, it will happen slowly. Krstic and Green never lived up to the projections in Presti's plan.
@Crow I'm no perk defender but his rankings will always be scewed. He have him for one purpose only. That fact that Brooks handled him incorrectly was not Perk's fault. He is good at what he does. If we played a Bynum in each series I'm sure his winshares would increase.
Thabo is a stopgap. Unfortunately, I think the plan was for Harden to be a starter, only his defense did not increase to a level we wanted. Maybe the offseason was to blame. Thabo shouldn't start anymore. He is a situational player on par with Perk.
@Bsooreal I don't think Thabo is the problem. The problem is the combined scoring we get from Thabo, Serge, and Perk. One of those positions needs to be more of a scoring threat and it would be to the Thunder's advantage if it were Serge or Perk because that would diversify the offense.
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@Crow But how do guys like Joel Anthony and James Jones and Udonis Haslem rank?
@f5alcon This much is true. I'm curious about Collison's stats for my own edification, however. Regardless of the fact that I know Collison was the better option without consulting them.
@ou_sas perk had a torn groin, collison was healthy, so that alone is a reason to play collison
@Crow @Jax Raging Bile Duct How do Collison's winshares per 48 match up? I know a lot of people were calling for less Perk, more Collison; would that have made a significant difference?
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Thunder big 3 basically matched Heat big 3 on winshares per 48. As I have said before, cutting across the conventional wisdom that the Thunder had better depth, the Heat victory margin came from their better performing depth.
@Crow It is considering both, as you said, because if you go by players who played at least 200 minutes, the list changes to this:
53 Metta World Peace .084
54 Ray Allen .077
55 Thabo Sefolosha .077
56 Danny Granger .075
Two defensive players and two offensive players all stacked right together.
The thing that kills us is that Thabo, Fisher and Perkins ALL got over 200 minutes and ALL of them were in the bottom 25% of the league. I think you could deal with one of them doing that, maaaaaybe even two (with one coming off the bench), but all 3? That's asking your stars to play at a LeBron level.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct yes if one wanted to clean up the list, a games played standard should be included
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Thabo defends, Allen shoots. overall Winshares per 48 at least considers both. PER/EWA doesn't include shot defense in any form (crude or accurate).
@Crow And when Ray Allen ranks 60th, and Thabo 61st, that just says something fishy is going on.
@Crow We might be able to remove some of that noise by requiring more than just 20 minutes per game. Some of those guys only played 3 games.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Colew just missed with 19 minutes per game in the regular season and a winshares per 48 of .000. in the playoffs he was a little better but his time was cut to about 8.5 minutes per game.
@FF_pickups no, that is just a reworked PER and I don't use that much any more.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=single&type=totals&per_minute_base=36&lg_id=NBA&is_playoffs=Y&year_min=2012&year_max=2012&franch_id=&season_start=1&season_end=-1&age_min=0&age_max=99&height_min=0&height_max=99&birth_country_is=Y&birth_country=&is_active=&is_hof=&is_as=&as_comp=gt&as_val=0&pos_is_g=Y&pos_is_gf=Y&pos_is_f=Y&pos_is_fg=Y&pos_is_fc=Y&pos_is_c=Y&pos_is_cf=Y&qual=&c1stat=mp_per_g&c1comp=gt&c1val=20&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&c5stat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws_per_48
on this measure the two worst Miami qualifiers were Haslem and Battier and they wer clarly better thanThabo and Perk
@Crow I just named Miami's role players that I could think of. Didn't follow them enough to remember who played around 20 minutes a game. Norris Cole maybe?
I apologize. I should go look that up.
@Crow
Are you using the Hollinger EWA?
@Crow Of all the Miami players who played qualifying minutes, who were their worst two ranking players, and how do they compare to Thabo and Perk?
@Jax Raging Bile Duct @FF_pickups if you play good defense you can get a good winshares per 48 minutes pretty much regardless of what your teammates do to hog the ball on offense.
@FF_pickups I agree that they aren't starter quality.
I just wondered how the other teams role players did, because not every team can have 5 players who rank highly in win shares or any other measure. There just isn't enough basketball to go around for that.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Only one of those guys was a regular starter last season and Anthony was a nominal 21 minute per game starter.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
That's really the true point, though, that I think everyone is missing. That these 'starters' on our teams are matchup plays and Brooks can't understand that even though every other coach in the league does it. i.e. in the playoffs, they juggle their rotations to optimize their team against the opponent. Brooks refuses to do that. The point is that these players, Sefolosha and Perkins, aren't 'not starter quality', they just aren't starter quality regardless of matchup. Nobody starts 5 guys who are matchup proof.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Udonis Haslem 38th; Joel Anthony and James Jones cut to 10 and 6 minutes per game respectively.
@FF_pickups Crow said playoffs, not finals.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct
None of those guys started in the finals.