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Wednesday Bolts – 7.18.12

by Royce Young on July 18, 2012 at 11:02 am 178 Comments

Shayne Lee for CNN.com on the Dream Team vs. 2012: “The general consensus appears to side with Jordan and Barkley. In informal online polls, an overwhelming majority of the public favored the Dream Team over our current Olympic Team in a hypothetical matchup. Judging by the polls, pundits and prognostications on the issue, few seem to be taking Kobe’s sacrilege seriously. But I do. In fact, I believe Kobe Bryant’s team would not only win, but also win comfortably. What makes this social scientist so sure?”

Mike Kurylo of Knickerblogger: “Logically there is no reason to be a Knick fan, and yet you, we, persist. By acknowledging we are Knick fans we publicly support the moves of the organization. By watching MSG or buying Knicks gear we give our monetary support to the team. And by staying Knick fans we share the same stubborn traits that continues to make this team doomed to failure. So as Knick fans we not only agree with James L. Dolan, but in some deeper way, we become him.”

Perk talking music.

Alan Sepinwall started his own blog to rant about Jeremy Lin: “And because the Knicks have traded most of their draft picks for the next several years to assemble this very old team, the only players on it with any upside whatsoever were going to be Iman Shumpert (coming off a knee injury that may steal some of the quickness that made him such a good defender) and Lin. The team as constructed, with Felton and DWI Kidd as the point guards, will be a good team. It will make the playoffs easily, maybe even be in the top half of the bracket. But it will not win a title. The pieces don’t entirely fit together, and most of the players are who they are. If Linsanity was a mirage, then they’re screwed anyway. But if it wasn’t? Then the Knicks gave away their best shot at legitimately competing with Miami, Chicago, OKC, et al, and THEY DIDN’T EVEN GET ANYTHING BACK.”

Those are just a reminder as to how good you have it being a Thunder fan.

An Oklahoma Celebrity fantasy draft.

Small twist: The Thunder won’t be giving a contract to Andray Vorentsevich.

Clark Matthews of The Lost Ogle on Dream Team vs. 2012: “Here’s the thing. The 2012 team is loaded with players that are babies compared to the 1992 team. Just looking at the Thunder players on the roster (who make up 25% of the team), Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook, and James Harden are all approximately 23 years old. In 1992, Barkley, Jordan, and Ewing were at or around 30 (Magic and Bird were much older…only Robinson-27-and Laettner-22-were considered young). Except, by professional experience, it is a wash. Jordan had just completed his seventh NBA season. LeBron James, two years younger, just finished his ninth. Even Durant has five years of NBA service, that’s three more than than David Robinson who was four years older.”

Behind the scenes with President Obama and Team USA.

Very interesting research from Court Vision on where rebounds go.

Marc Stein of ESPN.com with an important note on amnesty: “Don’t forget that teams can only use their one-time amnesty clause on players who were on the roster when the lockout ended last December AND who remain on the same contract in effect at the start of the 2011-12 season. Fifteen teams have used their amnesty clause thus far, leaving 15 teams with 41 players whose contracts are still valid entering the 2013-14 season.”

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Bolts
Previous Post Tuesday Bolts – 7.17.12
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Perk has a lot of value to our team
Perk has a lot of value to our team 5pts

http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/07/oklahoma-citys-offseason-grade-on-a-curve/

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

Good articles. Except the one about Obama. Yuk!

This comment has been deleted

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @MisterJohnsonOKC  @Thunderman It was a video, not an article. As an article, it is pretty poor.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @MisterJohnsonOKC  @Thunderman nothing

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

Field goal percentage from different ranges:

Player A:

-10 to 15 feet: 62.5 percent

-16 to 23 feet: 38.0 percent

Player B:

-10 to 15 feet: 37.5 percent

-16 to 23 feet: 43 percent

ATH
ATH 5pts

 @Jooseppi Wow, Harden shot 5-8 from 10-15 feet... on the season.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @ATH  @Jooseppi imagine if he taken 200 of those ! an incredible  63% AMAZING

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  Shots taken from those ranges?

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones Harden takes less than Westbrook. I would like you to answer this question: do you believe taking more low percentage shots is a good thing? 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas I'm also done with this particular thread and am moving on to the next one,

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas How many more a game? How many less possessions from each player? From what types of possessions for them?I'm not trying to refute or say one way or the other, I'm just trying to get you think analytically. 

I think Serge's usage could be slightly higher. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas 16-23 range serge from who from russ kevin and james why? because it opens up the paint

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas Where should those shots come from? From who and from what range?

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas needs to up his volume

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones Serge took 2.6 a game from 16-23 and converted at 46 percent, one of the best bigs in the league from that range. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Jooseppi I agree serge needs to gain confidence which is IMO what harden lacks with the midrange as well.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas He should take more but not a ton. His long jumper is a recent development. It's valuable as a pressure release or off a pick and pop, but you don't want it to be a high percentage of your offense, just a wrinkle. 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi Well, to be fair, you were arguing two slight variations on that same theme. 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @Jooseppi Having a power forward who could catch AND shoot from mid range would open the paint up significantly. He's not wrong.

 

*Looks significantly at Serge*

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas which is funny, because nick said in his exit interview he want to  be able to hit more of them to open up the offense.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas I was being presented with the notion that he couldn't make those shots. He can, and he's selective about them, but he chooses better ones because he knows what happens when he's less selective, which you second stat illustrates better. 

Nick Collison was great from midrange this season with the shots he took. Just didn't take many because Nick Collison taking a midrange jumper isn't something you want to hang your hat on. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas Yes, it was a difficult defense. He has to make changes. But to start taking midrange shots isn't the best change. He should be more involved. The team needs better and more varied sets to get all three players involved. The pindown is great but you need more.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi Oh, totally agree. That statement was meant more as a barometer of the board in general recently. We're all smiles and happiness until anything requiring an opinion comes up and then *WHAM* Argument City.

 

My thought process is to half play devil's advocate and to half honestly question why Harden doesn't shoot more than 8 shots from the midrange (which, curiously enough, he shot 8-25 from 3-9 feet in the playoffs, so I guess he did) when he had apparently good percentages. The fact is that you're right, that shot isn't as efficient as getting to the rim or the 3 point line, but that 63% doesn't help your case. Those midrange numbers from the playoffs would have been a better counterargument to my questioning than anything else you posted, as it shows exactly what you were saying - when his usage of that shot increased, the efficiency for it fell out the bottom.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  He had a very good Game 2 when Durant was in foul trouble, then they stopped going to him. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas thought it would be worse honestly

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas TS% of ~50.5 in the finals. A poor mark for Harden. Took me a second to add it up.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas he played against a top 5 defense in the finals which will probably not change in the future.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas  you posted player a vs player b statistics to prove the point that harden is an great mid range shooter, when in fact you  failed to mention that the sample size is incredibly small and erroneous. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  If that's how it comes across, I'm sorry. I've said over and over Harden had a poor finals, but he had a successful playoffs.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas Tell me where in that I said he should take 10-15 foot shots. Find the words.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas actually you didnt

 

Field goal percentage from different ranges:

Player A:

-10 to 15 feet: 62.5 percent

-16 to 23 feet: 38.0 percent

Player B:

-10 to 15 feet: 37.5 percent

-16 to 23 feet: 43 percent

 

 

 

 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  @Jooseppi http://www.hoopdata.com/gamelog.aspx?player=James%20Harden&ha=&month=%&year=20122 Scroll down. That's his playoffs stats.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas I in no way said Harden should take 10-15s. I said he was successful in the small number of shots he has taken there. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas not even trying to argue i'll just like to know what it was against a top 5 defense.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas what was his TS% in the finals?

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones I know, I know. But you put up stats of any description on this board, and it's almost like wearing a sign that says "START A FIGHT WITH ME ABOUT THIS, YOU STOOPID-HEADS!"

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas which prove's my point, using harden's small sample sized  statistic that you tried to pass off harden should have been taken the 10-15 instead of the 3s.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones Guy had the 7th best TS% in the playoffs and we're pretending like he struggled. 60.5 percent!

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones Thanks.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas You take whatever is more efficient. If a player shoots 20 percent from 3 and 40 percent from 10-15, you want him taking 10-15 over three pointers. This is basic stuff. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones He shot 6.3 FTA a game in the playoffs and 6.0 in the regular season. ESPN has summation game longs in their game log section. 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @SoonerSpens  @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones Sure, but I'm trying to match the disparity of "low percentage shot" with Harden's admittedly skewed shooting percentage from that range.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas make's them more difficult to attempt and execute . it come's down to do you want him taking a much more difficult shot because it's worth more points or do you want him taking an open jumper? 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas That doesn't suddenly make them worth less points.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones Do you have a good site for that data? Hoopdata only has free throws taken and shot locations, not freethrows earned off shot attempts. It's all very well to say that he got to the line more, but on my rough eyeball of the stats, it looks like he's shooting 1-2 free throws per game less in the playoffs.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas  3pt shots are rarely open against great perimeter defenders that is the problem

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @SoonerSpens  @ou_sas  @Lost Ones He's been successful with the number of shots he's taken. That's what I've been saying. If you can't call him good at it, you can't call him bad at it either.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @SoonerSpens  @ou_sas  @Jooseppi not according to jooseppi

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas Shooting a lower percentage from 3 is acceptable because the shot is worth more points. 37 percent from 3 is 1.11 pps, shooting 37 percent from midrange is .74 pps.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas I disagree finishing at the rim is more important  can count on refs

SoonerSpens
SoonerSpens 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones You can't exactly say Harden is a good midrange shooter when he's taken such low volume from that spot. Small sample size much?

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones And got to the line more, which is better than getting to the rim. 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones Except he shot 57% at the rim for the playoffs...

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas but he shoots less from 3 than what he shoots from midrange going by your statistics 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas  you displayed his statistic to showcase that he's actually a better midrange shooter than westbrook by selection or not; considering its a "easier" shot for him he should take it

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas He shoots 70 percent at the rim. And gets fouled at the rim. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas He shoots 63 percent from that range because he's selective about when he takes them. He's not a chucker. The average shot from 10-15 feet is going to be less than that. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas  if harden's a 63% mid-range shooter shouldn't that be the more desirable shot or am i missing something.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

@Lost Ones@ou_sas "

exactly what i was saying statistics will not show that though.

23 MINUTES AGO" in response to ou_sas talking about turnovers. 

 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas shooter*

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas  the heat was giving harden the midrange shot, considering he's a 63% shooting shouldnt that be a easier shot for him than his sub 40 three?

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas when did i say harden turned the ball over as usual putting garbage into my words

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas I thought we were talking about the playoffs, not one series?

So if you like mid-range shots, aren't those dependent on going in, as well?

Of course they are. Harden had a bad series in the Miami series but it wasn't because he couldn't get to the rim like you suggest or get to the line like you suggested or turned it over a bunch like you suggested. It's because his shots weren't falling. And if you're shots aren't falling, you know what you should do? Take easier shots, not bad midrange ones.

Is this brand new stuff to you?

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas  18-of-48 and 7-of-22 from three-point range 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas But you understand he did all that in the playoffs right? They count these things. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas getting to the line is a good thing when you're making your freethrows and attempts at the rim. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones Because he shoots 70 percent at the rim and gets fouled at the rim. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones You're the one insisting it was an issue, so chart it out for me. I know you don't like counting though.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones You phrase it "taking low percentage shots"... except Harden's percentages from there are above 50%. Why not pull up from 5-10 if he's 63% from there?

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi how many times per game did he get stopped from getting to the rim?

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @ou_sas Getting to the line is a good thing. He got to the line more often in the playoffs as a whole. It worked in the playoffs. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @ou_sas that's the issue, hardens entire game is predicated  towards him getting fouled at the rim, when defenses courter his offensive moves he is left with his 3 point shot only which is an issue in a playoff series.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones He got to the rim 3 times a game in the Miami series. Took 4.8 FTs a game. Compared to 3.4 and 6.0 in the regular season. This isn't some mindblowing thing, here. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones (2.1 per game in the playoffs as a whole).

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi yes Miami's perimeter defense kept him from getting to the rim at will in the playoffs , they counter every move he made on the pick and roll. Lakers and spurs were not top 10 defenses and outside of mavericks fouling him he was pretty much  limited in that series as well.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones 2.4 turnovers a game in the Miami series, 2.2 in the regular season. Useless!

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones But sorry, no counting allowed. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones That isn't better though. Teams want to defend you at the 3 point line and at the rim because those are without a doubt the most efficient shots other than free throws (getting to the rim is the best way to get free throws as well). 

If a team wants to defend the midrange, then fine. More easy shots at the rim. Harden got them regardless. 3 a game in the Miami series vs 3.4 during the regular season. 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones I'm not saying to take or not. But if you never take one, then the defense never has to worry about you pulling up - like they do now with Russ. You mean to tell me defenses didn't start crapping their pants when Russ started getting wet from the midrange in the Dallas series? 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones So you believe playoff defense kept him from getting to the rim in the Miami series?

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Jooseppi exactly what i was saying statistics will not show that though.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @ou_sas  @Lost Ones He had a TS% of 60.5 in the playoffs a TOV percentage of 13.5. It's not like he was struggling.

Not taking midrange shots is a good thing. 

ATH
ATH 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @Jooseppi Harden sometimes kills possessions by refusing to take a mid-range shot. Westbrook sometimes kills possessions by taking mid-range shots.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones The point I think Lost is trying to take is that, at least from the eye test, barreling past a range in an attempt to get to the rim/get a foul works in the regular season... not so much in the playoffs, much to Harden's chagrin. I can remember a couple of instances in the Miami series where Harden tried to drive, got denied, and had a turnover, whereas if he had pulled up, he could have had a decent look.

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones But he makes them. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi he's not comfortable with the shot.

ATH
ATH 5pts

 @Jooseppi  @Lost Ones Even if it wasn't fully due to restraint, Harden's shot selection is perfect for a third option. 

Jooseppi
Jooseppi 5pts

 @Lost Ones He has a midrange shot. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Jooseppi defense dictates what plays you're allowed to make in the playoffs, having an mid range shot is incredible asset.

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