Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty Images
Do you think Kevin Durant would consider restructuring his contract (take a pay cut) to create cap space for James Harden? — Tommy F.
It seems to make so much sense, right? These guys are talking sacrifices, so why not walk the walk? And nobody talks it and walks it better than KD.
He’s already said he’d do it, actually. Problem is, he can’t. Nor can Russell Westbrook. I actually wrote about this exact thing back in January. A person with direct knowledge of the collective bargaining agreement told me that while players can restructure, a player on a max deal can’t. Because a restructured deal has to include an extension and you can’t extend a more than the max. KD is on a designated player five-year max deal. So is Westbrook. You can’t add on a sixth year, because five is the max.
But if they really wanted to sacrifice, there’s nothing in the CBA that says they can’t chip in on Harden’s salary. Or the luxury tax. Just saying.
Actually, you know what, the answer is obvious, isn’t it? A Kickstarter for Harden/the luxury tax! I’ll get right on that.
I wanted to know what you thought about OKC’s growth in the Finals this year. In the series against the Spurs they played like they never have before — in that there was less isolation and lots more ball movement leading to a lot easier baskets. I personally loved to see this type of play from them, and it be clarified by Reggie Miller saying “we are watching a team grow up and mature”, but noticed they went away from it in the series against the Heat. Do you think that they just played a great series against the Spurs, or do you think we may have seen a turning point from the Thunder in the way they run their offense from now on. — Nicholas W.
I think the answer is pretty simple: The Spurs don’t defend like the Heat. San Antonio doesn’t have LeBron, who can guard five positions. They don’t have Dwyane Wade, who might have the best defensive anticipation in the league. The structure of Miami’s defense took away OKC’s ball movement and spacing really well.
But there is a little misnomer about the way the Finals went against the Heat. The Thunder scored enough to win. What failed them most was that their defense failed to show up at critical times. It was inconsistent throughout, one part because of matchups and another being that the Heat played really good and shot the ball surprisingly well.
Obviously ball movement and spacing is wonderful. It looks great and makes it seem like a team is playing really well. But so much of it also depends on the ball simply going in. The Thunder didn’t get the kind of production from Ibaka, Thabo, Daequan Cook and others in the Heat series. OKC’s not a big ball movement team. It’s not what got them there. But I do think they played maybe their four very best games of the entire season in that series against the Spurs. That’s the level they have to work to play at consistently.
Just wondering whether you really think that Perk is a legitimate amnesty candidate now with Dwight Howard to the Western Conference. I’m mean Perk is the Dwight stopper and having Perk should in theory enable the Thunder to get past the Lakers with relative ease. — Ben from Australia
Definitely. Thing is though, Perk was relevant for the Thunder regardless of the Howard trade. Because he’s also a Bynum stopper. So whether the Lakers got Howard or not, Perk was going to be needed.
But if it comes down to essentially choosing between keeping Perk on the roster to basically defend one guy four times a season and then maybe more if the teams meet in the postseason, or keeping James Harden, I think the decision is fairly easy. You simply do not keep Perk on the team just to defend Howard at the expense of losing Harden for the long term. In the list of Things That Don’t Make Sense, that would rank pretty highly, right next to people liking Twilight.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that you’ve seen the Thunder quietly try and stockpile young bigs. Cole Aldrich, Hasheem Thabeet, Daniel Orton, Tibor Pleiss, Latavious Williams. The hope is that one can blossom into a bargain replacement for Perk.
When their careers are finished, who do you think has more All-Star Game appearances, Serge or James? — Katie T.
Harden, no question. Because in the West, there aren’t many 2-guards that will get the nod ahead of him much longer. Kobe, Manu… and then Harden, right?
For Ibaka, the West has Kevin Love, Pau Gasol, LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin and Zach Randolph. Beating any of them out doesn’t seem reasonable. BUT, Ibaka could be sliding into more of a center role in the future for the Thunder and if you’re the top shot blocking center in basketball, there’s a good chance you’re going to get a backup center spot behind Dwight Howard in the West.
Outside of a positional change, Ibaka’s going to have a hard time ever making the team.
I’m really excited about Perry Jones this season. But is he even going to play at all? Please tell me he will. — Mark C.
Magic 8-ball says “too early to tell.” I’m sure if Jones comes into camp and wows Scott Brooks, he’s going to get minutes. But if he’s raw, has trouble finding a role and doesn’t find a rhythm in playing low minutes, Brooks may just stick with the rotation he’s already comfortable with.
I do think Jones is a really interesting addition though and one that could play bigger dividends than some are thinking. Because this is a player with exceptional versatility, that can play a stretch 4 position and allow KD to remain at small forward. He gives OKC an ideal player to throw out against other small ball lineups. Assuming he can play and that he’s ready to produce, he could be a major pickup for OKC.
Have a question? Hit the mailbag at dailythunder@gmail.com.
I wish I had a job that wouldn't allow me to get a pay cut. (Yeah, I know. I'm a little late)
http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/08/friday-bolts-8-31-12/#respond
My Thunder Salary Tax calculations - https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgbOTqYzmgHidE8xTlBZR2NqWDVXZWN0dXdDdGR4UlE
Still working, but I'm playing around with numbers to see what options for Harden are. I've run a couple so far: Identical deal with Serge, 48/4 with $1mil raises per year, and $52/4 with $1 mil/yr raises. I realize some of those numbers will be impossible, but I'm not up on my salary rules enough to actually figure these things out.
@ou_sas Amnesty Perkins! Sign Fesenko instead.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Since we're still 4 mil under the cap this year, something like that won't happen til next year.
@ou_sas
Like a kid with a new toy . . .
@ThunderChick2010 A new toy that he spent a morning on. The good news is that it's saved so I don't have to repeat it later.
@cleandoe @ThunderChick2010 That's why I shared it, really, so nobody else has to go through figuring out that formula.
@ou_sas @ThunderChick2010 Haha
All I have to do is click 'Show all Formulas' and I will have all your mornings work to put into my own excel!
@ThunderChick2010 @ou_sas He'll stop using it in a week
(Numbers taken from basketball-reference.com)
Just spent the past 10 minutes setting up my luxury tax calculator (it's complicated O.o;;;; ) in excel. Okay, now I'm ready to actually do some salary crunching.
I paid for league pass last year and I haven't been able to re-watch any games since the finals ended.
This is horse sh!t. I paid a large sum of money as I live outside the states. If the next season hasn't started yet I should be able to view the games over and over again so I can pin point exactly when Blake Griffin became a baby, Perk turned into Olowokandi, Lebron became a figure I could empathize with and Kevin Durant ascended to my hero.
Such a scam... but I have no other option for watching Thunder games.
@Stringer Bell In the midst of that terrible game 5--OKC getting blown out in the final minutes of the 4th quarter--I remember saying: "Good for LebBron." I don't know how that happened (to be fair, I was really drunk): but I agree with the LBJ-empathizing. It's a weird emotion, and it came out of nowhere.
@D@nny I never really liked LeBron until the media started using him as a punching bag and I began to empathize with his struggles. I didn't think he deserved the thrashing he was getting in the paper.
Hopefully KD gets his ring/s before the media turns on him too.
I'm pretty all right with Call Me Maybe.
While we're sharing awesome youtube videos that are awesome, I have to give props to Trey Kirby for tweeting a link yesterday that made my entire week. I promptly re-tweeted it and sent it to half the contacts in my phonebook. If you ever liked The Flight of the Concords, then this is a must watch for you. It's also acceptable if you like cute kids.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py_30jZGUYk
@Jax Raging Bile Duct That's a hilariously awesome song. And definitely need the intro to set it up.
@ou_sas It's even better if you know these two bits of insider information... 1) The scene with Murray, Bret and Jermaine is from an HBO TV series that they ran for 2 seasons, 3 years ago. 2) Bret Mckenzie won an Academy Award for the music in that last Muppets movie.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct I may have to. I'm looking forward to seeing the entirety of "Bowie".
@ou_sas I didn't know that. You might netflix season 1 Flight of the Concords one day. It's great. Season 2 is good too, but not as good.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct I've seen a couple of eps from the first season, but most of what I know about Bret/Jermaine is from youtubes of their live acts.
Did you know that Bret's fandom is such that Peter Jackson was influenced to add a line for his character in Return of the King extended Edition? It was originally a non-speaking role, but there were enough of the female fans who fell in love with him that it got expanded. (Google FIGWIT for more info)
Went to the gym this morning, I don't know what schmuck was controlling the radio, but it's not exactly to bench press to "Call Me Maybe" or "Lights" (the latter is the new one, not Journey, I would work out to Journey anyday). I was kinda pissed.
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! I consider myself fortunate that I only got subjected to Call Me Maybe for the first time at the dentist's office two days ago. I'd managed to avoid it pretty well.
@ou_sas @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! you should try this version: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIfbghHdG1s
@thunder_fan_in_korea Thanks for that. I don't care if they sang the phone book to the tune of a Barney the Purple Dinosaur song, I'd like that video all the same.
@thunder_fan_in_korea @ou_sas @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW!
Little Girl: GET OUT OF MY BALL POOL!
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! I work harder when I'm angry
Early last season I was keeping track of Westbrook and Perkins and their post up games. Turns out Westbrook ended up way more productive as a post player, at .77 PPP, which isn't so bad, .24 PPP better than Perkins and better than the centers I listed earlier.
Westbrook had two things he had issues with offensively last year. First was he was not getting to the line as much. Maybe the rule changes played a part here, I think some of it is also how much of a baby he's become arguing calls. He shot so much better from the floor but ended up with the same scoring efficiency due to lower FTA.
The second is his three point shooting. He shoots them too much, and he's not a good spot up shooter. The difference between Russ' 3pt% off PnR and Isolation isn't that much from his Spot Up %. Compare to a good shooter like Chris Paul, who shoots way better on Spot Ups. If Russ is going to shoot three of them a game he has to get better at shooting them when he's open and not off the dribble.
@justin_mia "Westbrook was not getting to the line as much. Maybe the rule changes played a part here, I think some of it is also how much of a baby he's become arguing calls."
Westbrook shot 60% of his shots in the lane in 2011, only 50% of his shots in the lane in 2012 and yet his overall shooting percentage went up. He wasn't getting to the freethrow line as much because he wasn't attacking the basket as much which he wasn't doing as much because he has become so proficient from midrange. Not because he's a baby or because of rule changes.
"The second is Westbrook's three point shooting. He shoots them too much, and he's not a good spot up shooter."
I took the last 20 months of Westbrook's 3pt percentage and did a linear regression to determine that he's been improving at 1.45% per month on 3 pt shooting. As long as he's growing as a player, we shouldn't discourage him to keep shooting. As soon as he becomes stagnant, then I'm with you but until then you let him keep shooting. He's an excellent free throw shooter, so he should be able to make the 3. Of the 36 players to shoot >83% from the line last year, 29 have a career average of over 35% from the 3-point line.
@FF_pickups @justin_mia Do you have that regression line in an easily distributable format? I'd be interested to see it.
Also, what's your correlation coefficient on that regression?
@FF_pickups Thanks!
@ou_sas I sent it.
@ou_sas @FF_pickups
#ResponsibilitiesofLeagueManager
@cleandoe @FF_pickups I'm not really that concerned about it, because it's all over the place, but I'm following board precedent.
@ou_sas @FF_pickups mwahaha
oh wait - I already have your email. Nevermind
@ou_sas
I had it in excel but I deleted it right afterwards. All I did was just get the last 20 months from ESPN.com off of Westbrook's stats page, splits page here: http://espn.go.com/nba/player/splits/_/id/3468/year/2009/russell-westbrook
Put them into an excel sheet and graph them and use linear regression tool. The correlation coefficient is 0.47 and the R^2 is 0.2282. I can email you the table.
@FF_pickups @justin_mia (Sorry for poking, but those stats you pointed out are quite intriguing).
@justin_mia i think complaining about calls played a role in him not getting to the line but I also think he deserves more respect from refs ( i think it'll be better this year). Part of me thinks the refs and the league don't want to have a repeat of what happened with Wade in 06 so they do the opposite sometimes. Also sometimes he looks crazy when he goes to the rim like he doesn't know what he's doing when he's actually doing something very few other players can do.
I hope his post game continues to develop i think his numbers are probably decent in the post because he only posts up players he has a clear advantage over (steve blake). But i think soon he'll be skilled enough down there to use it against more people.
Once again...the GOP has nominated the wrong person. These people just can't get it right. Cheney, McCain, and now Romney. If they were really serious about winning the White House they'd have nominated Marco Rubio. Marco Rubio is a dude I'd be watching very closely somewhere down the road.
@El Prez Is Oklahoma predominantly Republican or Democratic? I'm from New England haha
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! it is the most republican state in the country, every county went mccain last election. There is no point in voting here.
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez It's probably best surprised as Presidentially red, locally blue, if that makes sense.
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @ou_sas @ThunderChick2010 @El Prez it's ok, I'm right out of college.
@cleandoe @ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez @justin_mia Depends on my mood. I usually use lines, but sometimes, if I'm in a whimsical mood, or if the data is cutesy enough to warrant it, I might use circles.
@ou_sas @ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez @justin_mia For the 'whiskers' do you use lines or circles? I'm a circles guy myself...
@ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez @justin_mia Yup. I'm going to need age data to finish my box and line plot of everyone's ages with the quartiles properly displayed.
@ThunderChick2010 Maybe a box plot would be easier to understand
@ThunderChick2010 @ou_sas @El Prez @justin_mia That is all stuff we talked about in Statistics yesterday lol
@ou_sas @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez @justin_mia
You're just looking for an excuse to draw a Bell curve and talk about standard deviations and outliers. I see you.
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @ThunderChick2010 @ou_sas @El Prez Don't tell her!
@ThunderChick2010 @ou_sas @El Prez I think it was mostly because of the smileys :p
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @ou_sas @El Prez
Thanks. I'll take that as a compliment. :)
@ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez If I had to guess 19-40 is probably the age range for most of us on the board. (So college age - early/middle working life). People over 40, by my experience, are less likely to go to message boards unless they are Internet Pioneers (here's looking at you, @justin_mia , I mean Davy Crockett). And music-wise, I just assumed that every one here had good tastes ;)
@ThunderChick2010 @ou_sas @El Prez The ironic thing is that for a little while, I assumed you were around my age haha
@ou_sas @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez
Funny story . . . there was an evening last spring when Old Man Game, dancassidy, and I were pretty much the only ones hanging out. DC was sharing music, OMG was talking about how that brings him back, and--from the comments and musical tastes--I was thinking we were all around the same age. Then a few days later, DC35 mentions being 19! I felt a little bit like Elaine in that Seinfeld episode about Vincent. :)
@ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez I wasn't going to fill in that number under any circumstance. I know how this game is played.
@ou_sas @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez
Ha ha . . . I've got you beat, but I've got a way to go before reaching TaoMaas/ElPrez status. A long way. A long, long way . . . (trying to convince myself)
@ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez If you prefer, you could say that anyone would be surprised to find out how rabidly the state votes red, and yet we end up with a whole string of democratic governors and senators, like the Borens.
@ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez If I'm old at 27, and you're old at some number..., I'd hate to see how taomaas and elPrez feel.
@ou_sas @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez
Oh sure, it's baby_sas' fault. I just assumed there was some obscure alternate meaning for the word I didn't know.
And is dancassidy35 calling us old?
@ou_sas @ThunderChick2010 @El Prez Sometimes I feel really young on this board.....
@ThunderChick2010 @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez Hey, I'm typing with a wriggling 5 month old on my lap. I can't be responsible for mischosen words at times like that. I probably meant described.
@ou_sas @dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez
"surprised" ?
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez Or at least, it was up until recently.
@ou_sas @El Prez Gotchya
------
Trade Cole and FREE FESTUS!
@dancassidy35/FreeFestusFromGSW! @El Prez
They call us a red state, but I'm simply Thunder-blue.
I see what you did there
@El Prez I don't like many Republicans, but I like Rubio and I like Sen. Coburn. Speaking of the convention...did any other state have its Governor and the mayor of its biggest city speak at the convention? I truly believe that if America is to survive, we need more folks like Mayor Cornett...and less like Gov. Fallin. On a side note...Sen. Coburn hopped a ride on the elevator I was in the other day. Had to resist the urge to talk politics with him.
@El Prez
I was in the middle of reading your first post when it vaporized. I missed out. What's this rose-every-day business?
I deleted my first post. It was too much for the Daily Thunder. Too political. The best part of Romney's speech was when he spoke of his father and mother's devotion to one another. He said his father gave his mother a rose every day of their marriage for 64 years. The day she did not receive a rose was the day he died. That would be 23,360 single roses his father gave his mother during their marriage. I wonder if that's a true story. Mark my words, Marco Rubio will run for president some day. He showed more in ten minutes than Cheney's puppet showed in eight years. I better stop before I get too political.
@Crow @ThunderChick2010 @abizn @El Prez Ayn Rand is schlock.
@Crow @abizn @El Prez Ryan doesn't believe much in government and wants a smaller one but has chosen to spend basically nearly all his adult life working in and getting paid by government.
@abizn @El Prez If Presti likes Paul Ryan I would not as impressed with Presti. And I think he probably likes him.
@Lasers @Crow @abizn @El Prez True. The self-selectors usually have issues. I have been for drafting certain people who don't independently select themselves but that does not seem to work.
@Crow @El Prez to be honest, I just wish that the general public was smarter and understand more about issues. This way false promises and such can be rooted out from presidential campaigns. I also wish that congress can do more and actually work together. There are definitely good sides to both republicans and democrats, they just gotta use facts and logic to solve the nation's problems.
@abizn @El Prez Ryan was supported by the safety net most of youth but he wants to tear it down to give more tax breaks to the rich and corporations who look to Ryan for a salable face to their designs. Ryan says he is a fiscal conservative but none of his claims for his budget and Medicaid plans pass standard model reviews. Ryan hates pork except when he tries to secretly ask for it.
@ThunderChick2010 @Crow @abizn @El Prez Not until he told me his stands on policy. Ryan was a reader / devotee of Ayn Rand. I'd guess Presti was at least a reader. RUSH his favorite band is Ayn Rand influenced. That is not a simple disqualifier, but it is cautionary. I assume Presti is somewhere between a moderate Republican and a certain kind of Libertarian (fiscal libertarian- let the rich get richer, maybe not as concerned with social policy).
If Presti wins a title I'd be more included to vote for him than right now but on the scale of managers he is nearer the top than anywhere else.
(I noted before before that there is a Prestigiacomo Cabinet Minister in the right wing Italian government and she is friendly with and a political ally at times of the granddaughter of Mussolini. She is the daughter of an industrialist accused of massive worker and environmental crimes and she has been accused of whitewashing Mafia toxic dumping in the Mediterranean even though she presents herself as an environmentalist and decried the dumping. Just participated in a government that did nothing effectively to catch and prosecute the dumpers.)
@Crow @abizn @El Prez Hard to trust anyone who wants to be President bad enough to go out and do everything it takes.
@Crow @abizn @El Prez
So you WOULD support Sam Presti for President!
@abizn @El Prez Ryan has very little perception or regard for the truth. He is a self-promoter, give 'em what they want to hear fraud.
@abizn @El Prez As long as the country picks personalities for President it will get under-performance. The country needs proven managers in the ultimate management job in the world. Rubio is a personality who has very little management experience, similar to Obama. I vote politics like most, but I want a manager, preferably a Governor. But sometimes you can't get the right politics and the right experience in the same person.
@El Prez when Fox News calls a republican out, it's pretty big: http://www.foxnews.com/opinion/2012/08/30/paul-ryans-speech-in-three-words/#ixzz25640kwaK
But then Bain Capital finally made it and they were able to launder money in the Caymans happily ever after. He's definitely much sharper than Cheney's puppet W. Not even close.
@DennisBerry @El Prez I don't know if you guys know this, but Mitt and Ann were REALLY poor once, or something like that...
@El Prez sounds like the BYU football game I'm watching. zing!
It's not believable. Obama should call him out on this one. I've been married for thirty years come Nov. 21. I'm not even sure I've said morning to my wife for at least five of those years--let alone handing out a rose evry morning. All I saw in that auditorium were a lot of older white people. What I did not see was a realistic face of America 2012. It's the first time most of those people probably ever heard James Brown. Rubio would have been very attractive to many different voting groups in Amercia circa 2012.
@El Prez just further distancing his extremely wealthy self from the average American. Who can afford that?