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Thursday Bolts – 8.30.12

by Royce Young on August 30, 2012 at 10:07 am 100 Comments

Sam Amick of SI.com polled NBA executives on the Finals: “The final tally, with three of the voters submitting only first-place votes: The defending champions in Miami received 15 first-place votes, one second-place vote and two third-place votes; their Finals foe, Oklahoma City, garnered two first-place votes, six second-place votes and eight third-place votes; and the Lakers, who have added Dwight Howard and Steve Nash to Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol, got two first-place votes, nine second-place votes and six third-place votes. The Lakers may not be seen as the favorites to win it all, but the idea that they’re the top threat to the Heat is not only a topic of much discussion in the media but also clearly a very real sentiment in NBA circles.”

Matt Moore of CBSSports.com on the poll: “When the Lakers first landed Howard, there was excitement, but also a move to consider how good Oklahoma City still is, and how they match up with the new-look L.A. after bouncing them in five games last year. But the more you look at the Lakers’ roster, and how good it looks, the more the feeling is established that the Lakers may have leap-frogged the Thunder. This poll is a reflection of that. It doesn’t mean anything, of course. “They still have to play the games” and all that. But that goes both way. Oklahoma City isn’t guaranteed to have the same success, nor the injury luck they’ve managed over the past two years. Things could just as easily go wrong for OKC as they could for the Lakers, or Miami. Basketball and its chemistry is a tenuous, delicate thing.”

Serge Ibaka needs to work on his hat game.

Matt Moore for PBT on the West: “The Lakers, Thunder, and Spurs will be in the top three spots barring injury, it’s pretty safe to assume that. San Antonio is one where you’re tempted to throw them back into the pack of wolves to fight for their lives, but we always doubt San Antonio, and they always exceed regular season expectations (as opposed to the mid-2000′s when they would meet disappoint in the regular season and then exceed postseason expectations). As good as Los Angeles and the Thunder are, it shouldn’t shock anyone to see the Spurs nab the top seed in the playoffs again, just as it shouldn’t shock anyone to see them bounced in any round, first through Finals.”

Mario Chalmers is saying silly things.

James Harden played some summer hoops recently and put a couple of guys on skates.

Don Nelson on the birth of small ball: “It all happened in the Celtic practices. What Auerbach would do when it got to midseason and practices were drudgery, he would play big guys against the small guys and the smalls would always win. You put Bill Russell on the other team and everybody else big, and put the smalls on the other and it wasn’t a close game as long as it was a full-court game. Now half court, you couldn’t do that. But full court, the smalls always won, so I’m sure that was the start of it.”

The Thunder are refurbishing a city basketball court.

ESPN.com’s Summer Forecast has the Lakers as the West favorite.

Chris Broussard of ESPN.com on that: “Finally, those who are worried about James Harden because he vanished in the Finals should relax. So he had a bad series against the Heat, averaging 12.4 points on 37 percent shooting. It doesn’t mean he’s not clutch, it doesn’t mean he froze on the big stage. He simply played poorly. It happens, especially to 22-year-olds, which was Harden’s age during the Finals. Larry Bird averaged just 15 points and had back-to-back eight-point games in his first Finals appearance. So don’t count out Harden at all. In fact, like Durant and Westbrook, expect him to be better. Expect the Thunder as whole to be better, too, perhaps even better than the Lakers.”

One of the executives Amick polled: “They’ll be really good and should challenge for the Finals, but OKC should be a very good matchup for them. Kendrick Perkins has proved to be capable of defending Dwight in one-on-one situations and Ibaka can defend Gasol one-on-one, which limits the Lakers’ advantage slightly. I get the sense that people are underestimating the Thunder slightly given the moves that teams around them made, and that plays right into their hands. They’ll use it for motivation.”

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ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/08/dt-mailbag-future-sacrifices/

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

Tyreke Evans is also an intriguing RFA that hits the market next summer... Kings have no interest in matching huge offers (still early to say). He definitely won't receive a max offer but he could very well be a great solution if Harden is to walk?

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

 @CDNBallJunkie I'd definitely expect Presti to take a long look at him in that scenario

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @CDNBallJunkie We would need Tyreke and a 3 pt specialist to try and replace hardens production...well we need a better 3 pt specialist as it is now, but if we lost harden for tyreke we would desperately need one

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

 @OBoymuzik True, but replacing Harden with a guy who once could average 20-5-5 is a decent replacement don't you think? Tyreke's been hampered by a couple injuries and let's not mention the Westphal era.. but he's a capable guard who can really slash at the rim and free up some guys. A three point specialist can always be brought in via FA/Trades, hell I never knew Thabo could stroke it like he did last year.

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @CDNBallJunkie Thabos gotten better shooting but he'll never be a guy you can count on to hit big shots because he's indecisive and has a slow release.Wade blocked a few of his 3s at big times in the finals.

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

"kings are desperate for a small forward"

 

Lazar!!!!!!

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @OBoymuzik Given Darrel Morrey's team, it's a wonder the whole league isn't desperate for a power forward.

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct It might be a valid strategy, load up of PFs and when someone like ZBo last year gets hurt trade rape them. They should dump Kevin Martin and someone else and sign Blatche and Kenyon Martin

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

 @OBoymuzik This is how you used to win fantasy baseball. You draft the two 2nd basemen and the two catchers worth owning, and then you sell them at twice their value to a guy needing to make a push in exchange for his keeper prospect that will kill everyone in sight the next decade.

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

I've been some intense number crunching the past month and it seems that OKC won't escape luxury tax zone with or without Perkins assuming they try and resign James Harden. Based off my calculations, it's pretty much how deep does OKC want to go into the luxury tax.

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @CDNBallJunkie Riveting 

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @CDNBallJunkie I take it back

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie  every competitive team pays the tax, the spurs paid the tax to keep manu.

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @OBoymuzik I know exactly what you mean. I'm an OKC fan and as much as I hope that would don't have to pay the luxury tax, looks like me might have to to stay competitive.

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @CDNBallJunkie Many come here claiming they've done research when they've actually just watched ESPN and read bleacher report.

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Thought you would ahaha.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie "I've been some intense number crunching..."

 

Do you mean

A. I've been doing some intense number crunching...

B. I've seen some intense number crunching...

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct I'll go with A.

Fisha Status
Fisha Status 5pts

 @f5alcon LOLOLOL I shouldnt have liked that...but the vision of it is sooooo....real lol

ThunderBelize
ThunderBelize 5pts

 @MisterJohnsonOKC  @justin_mia  @TRICaintShort4Tricia  @Jax Raging Bile Duct  @CDNBallJunkie Does anyone remember a couple years back when the small sample size of Collison and Ibaka at the 4 and 5 was actually quite successful?

The caveat to their success is the existence of guys like Howard, ZBo, Bynum and maybe Hibbert who are talented, tall and tough bigs. Perk is well suited against them, but with only 12 reg season games against them and probably at least one playoff series against ZBo or Howard it is tough to pay him 8M for 12 games and 1 playoff series that he might have an impact in.

 

I digg perk though... he has been an intangible benefit to this team since the trade. and no body would be complaining about him if he was making 4 or 5 million a season.

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct You're right, it's hard to believe that Maynor would take anything less than a 17-18 million dollar deal. But as for the Perkins amnesty situation, the scenario would feature the Perkins amnesty + Thabeet cut. That would keep Aldrich as our only C (which is risky).

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie ** moves ONE of those two....

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie  It's a wait and see what James and Eric will get. Eric is the biggest question mark, James is nearly a sure thing.

 

And I'm not sure we amnesty Perk AND decline to pick up Aldrich AND cut Thabeet. That's 3 centers less in one budget crunch move. I gotta believe that only two will be cut at the most. And if it's Aldrich, he still has trade value. So does Perk for that matter. Maybe Presti works some magic and moves those two pieces for picks and expiring contracts or something.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @TRICaintShort4Tricia  At some point I just expect chris paul to punch dwight in the back and end his season.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

 @f5alcon It's hard to say what Krstic' defensive impact truly was, because our defense was pretty damn good when he was here, but I attribute that to Ron Adam's system. All I know is that I watched us double the post every time because Krstic would just get abused. Jeff Green, for all of his shortcomings, had to go HAM to closeout on shooters because he had to come and double all the time. And I'm not just talking about the Howards and Bynums of the world. I'm talking everyone.

 

But I do give Perk some credit for being so vocal and setting those illegal picks that he somehow gets away with. Krstic didn't do anything like that.

 

But you're right - it might be a wash.

Fisha Status
Fisha Status 5pts

 @justin_mia  @Jax Raging Bile Duct  @CDNBallJunkie You realize that OKC has about 7 PF/Cs. LOL ya'll should realize you're good in paint and well equipped for the Lakers. You need all of them to foul the HECK out that dude. Pay the luxury tax...stop trying to cut corners.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @f5alcon  @Jax Raging Bile Duct Perkins of last season was not much of an upgrade over Krstic, IMO.  His deterioration on the boards and ineptness offensively (turnovers!) erases a lot of the good things he does do better than Nenad.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct  Is he even and upgrade from krstic? krstic shot better, had half the turnovers, was only a slightly worse rebounder

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

 @OBoymuzik  @f5alcon  @justin_mia https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B64jQjphM6J2UnA3WjBqSEN0blk, there's the spreadsheet I've been working with. 

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct  @TRICaintShort4Tricia https://docs.google.com/open?id=0B64jQjphM6J2UnA3WjBqSEN0blk , the spreadsheet

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts

 @TRICaintShort4Tricia  I only accept Perkins because he's an upgrade from Krstic and means that I don't have to suffer through Jeff Green's play. Outside of that, I think Perk is extremely overrated, and only survives in people's good graces due to an old school media narrative.

 

I have no problem playing an undersized Serge at the 5 for half his game minutes if it means we can amnesty Perkins.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie and at 72 million with amnestying perk, and cutting thabeet, we are only paying 1 million in tax.

OBoy
OBoy 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @f5alcon  @justin_mia Hasheem is an excellent hat wearer and a poor basketball player

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @justin_mia  BECAUSE WE HAVE HASHEEM THE DREAM,lol.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @TRICaintShort4Tricia  @Jax Raging Bile Duct  @CDNBallJunkie Perkins is not the only center in the known universe.

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

 @f5alcon The tax line is going to be right around 70.3 million this upcoming seasion. I estimated it to atleast grow to around 71.5 million in 2013-2014, 72 million at highest which would be a 3% increase. 

Fisha Status
Fisha Status 5pts

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct  @CDNBallJunkie How can you Amnesty Perkins and not be okay with Ibaka being the main defense at the 5....You have to keep him.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie  That assumes harden is maxed and the tax line doesnt move. There is a good chance the tax line is slightly higher, if the new lakers, brooklyn changes bring a lot of interest it could be a lot higher, it used to increase 3-5% a year before the past few years, which could mean a tax line of 73 million. 

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie I'm all for Amnestying Perkins.

 

Just wondered what you had come up with, since hoopshype and basketballreference both list salary information per team, and depending on how you compare them, they seem to say different things.

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct Amnestying Perkins, and cutting Thabeet (with DQ and Lazar's contracts expired), still puts the Thunder around $3,022,940 over the tax line. That would result in $4,534,410 tax bill with just 11 players on the books. These are all assuming Presti stays the course With Aldrich, Jackson, and co.

CDNBallJunkie
CDNBallJunkie 5pts

 @Jax Raging Bile Duct I can definitely email you a spreadsheet with both cap scenarios. Sorta hard to summarize it all here. In simple terms: Signing Harden + Keeping Perkins, Thabeet + picking up the options on Thompson, Aldrich, and Jackson puts the Thunder $12,200,377 over the luxury tax line. That results in a whopping -$ 18,300,566 tax bill.

Jax Raging Bile Duct
Jax Raging Bile Duct 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CDNBallJunkie If it's A, it'd be kinda cool to see what you came up with.

beelieve035
beelieve035 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Let them think the Lakers are coming out of the West if they want, that'll just make the Thunder's victory THAT much sweeter.

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

2014 draft class has 2003/1984 potential imo.

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

Damn, and I forgot about Chris Walker, the boom or bust guy for that group

Fezzy
Fezzy 5pts

Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Julius Randle, Aaron and Andre Harrison, and Aaron Gordon. Easy to see why Nerlens Noel changed draft classes.

D@nny
D@nny 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

Hey you guys, do you know what I like a lot? Thunder basketball.

Barry Amenema
Barry Amenema 5pts

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFYMijdQ_sA

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Barry Amenema 

I spotted OBoyzOld Man.  :)

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