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Tuesday Bolts – 8.21.12

by Royce Young on August 21, 2012 at 11:19 am 127 Comments

Matt Moore of PBT on Ibaka’s extension: “The Thunder made the right call, and it’s one that reflects their approach as an organization. Now, there’s every reason to think that keeping Harden is nowhere near off the table. It is still very much possible that Harden remains a Thunder, and it wouldn’t surprise me if Presti quietly announced it on Monday on his way to his honeymoon. But even if this move lead them to terminate their relationship with Harden in the short and long-term, it would be the right one.”

Beckley Mason of ESPN.com: “For those NBA players than can pretty much choose where they play, answering “where do you I want to play?” involves a complex calculus. They have to weigh the impact of the local lifestyle with workplace conditions, family considerations, real estate, etc, etc. But the Thunder, like the Spurs before them, are proving that a first-class organization and teammates you truly like can go a long way to overcoming other shortcomings. Presti’s crew won this negotiation over the course of years, not weeks, by building an club that values and develops personnel and makes being in Oklahoma City seem fun to exceptionally wealthy young men. This contract is an organizational, rather than personal achievement. If there is a “Thunder Model,” that’s it.”

Have you seen the picture of James Harden everyone is talking about? Here’s Trey Kerby of TBJ’s breakdown: “The internet is the best. And so is that picture. And so is James Harden, for that matter. Shirtless at a white party with an insane cowboy hat, dookie chain and drinking straight from the bottle? That’s livin’ the life, gold medalist style. Or, I suppose, Rick Ross style, which really makes sense with that beard.”

Berry Tramel: “If the Thunder somehow signs Harden before Halloween, it will be a landmark day. A sign that the Thunder core is intact for the next half decade and a sign that management, despite the limitations of a small market, believes enough in the market and the team and the league to take great financial risk. If Harden doesn’t sign before Halloween, well, it’s either a sign that the Thunder was prudent or Harden wanted full market value, and you can’t blame either side for that.”

Zach Lowe of SI.com: “Is Oklahoma City, the league’s second-smallest market, willing to spend something like $85 million or even $90 million to fill a team? My hunch is that they are — at least for those two seasons. Deals attached to Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison expire after 2014-15, leaving the Thunder in 2015-16 with about $66.5 million committed to the four stars in and all their draft picks between now and then — and the ability to slide under the tax or nuzzle right up against it. Of course, there are huge unknowns here, including the Thunder’s place in the league’s revenue-sharing system and the financial state of Aubrey McClendon, a minority owner whose energy company (Chesapeake) has come under increased scrutiny for its financial state and internal practices.”

Tony Manfred of Business Insider: “Three years, three under-25 budding stars, three drama-less contract negotiations. How do they do it? On paper, these are the exact types of players that would use free agency in absurd, Dwight Howard-esque fashion. They’re young guys drafted into the smallest market in the NBA — who could move to a more glitzy city than OKC, and make more money in endorsements. Yet they’re all staying with the Thunder without even flirting with free agency.”

A survey of a bunch of ESPN writers and contributors have OKC with 59 wins.

Bradford Doolittle of ESPN.com projects 57.9 wins for OKC: “Oklahoma City’s projected age (weighted by minutes) for this season is 25.8 years, which ranks 22nd in the league. To give some context, the teams just behind the Thunder are Sacramento, Toronto and Washington. In other words, OKC sports a collective age typical of a franchise in rebuilding mode, yet the Thunder are coming off a Finals appearance.”

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okcisbad
okcisbad 5pts

The Thunder may have a lot of weapons on offense, but the Lakers have the deadliest weapon in all the land. MWP's elbow, ask Detroit Piston fans and The beard. The only thing capable of stopping such a menacing force is his kryptonite (Dictator Stern). I look forward to seeing his elbow concussing OKC's starting lineup and thus eliminating any chance of OKC beating the lakers. Good day to you.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @okcisbad Typical slime ball Faker fan

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/08/does-a-james-harden-trade-make-sense/#comments

ThunderTheFUp
ThunderTheFUp 5pts

Everyone saying LA is gonna run the west and get the #1 seed must've forgotten the main weaknesses with LA last yr which werent bad Center play or to a lesser extent PG (however they did get a major upgrade there.) They still have absolutly no perimiter defense and no bench. Jamenson is not going to save that bench and D12 is better defender but cant guard the edge. They upgraded at spots which imo didnt really need upgrading. Yes PG but Kobe holds the ball so often the pg wont do all that much imo. D12 is better but he still cant stop The Durantual

kennygee90
kennygee90 5pts

 @ThunderTheFUp thats wishfull thinking, Lakers have a good perimeter defenders in kobe and MWP..the problem was bynum was too slow footed to keep up with the pick n' roll defense against harden , westbrook and durant ...now the lakers have got the best pick n' roll defender in the league..No matter how you put it the tables have turned and the lakers have the better talent...

ThunderTheFUp
ThunderTheFUp 5pts

@kennygee90 Wishful thinking? LOL no its more about being a realist and seeing the game through unfiltered eyes. LA is good they were good last yr but Howard isnt that big of a upgrade no matter how much ESPN tells you he is. Nash is your x-factor but we'll see how he holds up with a less than steller LA med staff/ Not to mention Plenty of LA fans last yr saying Bynum was the best C out there. Kobe is hardly a perimeter Defender anymore. MWP is the only guy to challenge on the edge and id put money on him being suspended before Feb. I'll take okc in 6 this yr. Give ya a extra game for your pretty little trades

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @kennygee90  @ThunderTheFUp Problem with that Thunder arent a Pick n roll team:)

ThunderTheFUp
ThunderTheFUp 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

@kennygee90 @ou_sas @OkcBaby Ill take the team with Kevin Durant on is 10 times out of 10 without 2nd thoughts. I fully belive KD is The Best closer in the NBA. Kobe cant hang with KD in the last min of crunch time.

kennygee90
kennygee90 5pts

 @OkcBaby  @ou_sas  @ThunderTheFUp  no team can win a ring with one star down.....

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @kennygee90  @ou_sas  @ThunderTheFUp 1 of those 3 stars go down its over with.  Thunder built a team that can manage someone being injured.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @kennygee90  @ou_sas  @ThunderTheFUp Thats why theres 4 quarters.  I ll take Thunder as a whole over the Lakers

kennygee90
kennygee90 5pts

 @ou_sas  @OkcBaby  @ThunderTheFUp Just ask your self this..in a playoff game what team would you take in a close 4th quarter game with 7mins to go, ibaka, perkins, harden durant and westbrook vs howard, kobe nash, gasol and MWP..I'd take the Lakers in a heartbeat ..

kennygee90
kennygee90 5pts

 @OkcBaby  @ThunderTheFUp  ok, not pick n'roll but harden and westbrook use screens to free themselves

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @OkcBaby  @kennygee90  @ThunderTheFUp Crunch time Free Throws.

 

 

Wait...

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @kennygee90  @ThunderTheFUp Maybe Harden, Maynor and  Colli.  The rest not so much.  So how is Dwight going to help again?

 EatSleepThunder
EatSleepThunder 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @kennygee90  @ThunderTheFUp They are both waaaay over rated perimeter defenders and they are getting older and slower.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @ThunderTheFUp Nash is going to change that culture

ThunderTheFUp
ThunderTheFUp 5pts

@OkcBaby Nash is the guy i think helps them out more. But he's old, kobe loves that ball to much i think to let nash work his game

Thunderman
Thunderman 5pts

Westbrook > Nash

This comment has been deleted

This comment has been deleted

ThunderTheFUp
ThunderTheFUp 5pts

@MisterJohnsonOKC @Legendary_Dork Yes LA Center play has been a stong point for them. Its not like if Okc got a scoring big. LA has had one. Nash helps more than anything and its yet to be seen if his back can hold up when he's not being treated by the maricle staff with the Suns. Lots of questions on healthy, age, ego, and chemistry to write them in as a favorite in a conf OKC won less than 4 mo ago .

Legendary_Dork
Legendary_Dork 5pts

 @MisterJohnsonOKC  @ThunderTheFUp yeah i misread i think. oh well. shit happens :P

kennygee90
kennygee90 5pts

Read this..its an in depth analysis of how Howard helps the Lakers..

 

http://www.forumblueandgold.com/2012/08/20/dwight-howards-offense-and-how-it-helps-the-laker

Legendary_Dork
Legendary_Dork 5pts

 @kennygee90 no chance in hell i read this. i have no interest in drama boy howard or the lakers. *pass* 

Air Bud
Air Bud 5pts

It will be interesting to see how well Dwight Howard meshes with Kobe and Gasol.

 

Does anyone remember last season when Kobe was recruiting Howard? Kobe made a phone call to him to help out with the reported trade (Bynum/Howard) that never happened last season. The phone call completely turned Dwight against the trade and which it never happened. On this phone call Kobe was going on and on about how Dwight would be the Lakers 3rd option and after Kobe retires it would be Gasol #1 and Howard #2. Howard did not like how this phone call went and does not want to be a #2 or #3 option for any team. This is why he kept pushing for the Nets as he would be the #1.

 

It is funny that now with this Laker team Dwight may have slipped down to the #4 option, behind Kobe, Gasol, and Nash.

 EatSleepThunder
EatSleepThunder 5pts

http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/08/does-a-james-harden-trade-make-sense/

Aw man. Even Royce is writing about it.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

The PBT article is kind of a 'duh' article but  I disagree with the premise.  There's a lot of people taking it for granted that Ibaka will improve on all these things he's bad at simply because they are between the ears, and Harden is less likely to improve because he's already highly skilled.  

 

To that I will say that Harden has already demonstrated the ability to develop his skills from season to season, and that development to this point has been quite consistent and linear.  I think this is best exemplified by his FG% at the rim by year:

 

47.3%

61.8%

70.4%

 

He started beyond awful, second year was good, and last season he was elite for the position (with increased attempts and FTA as well).  Harden very quickly adapted his game and developed skills.  His PnR play wasn't anywhere close to this good in his rookie or sophomore seasons, he exploded this year in the PnR.  Writers like Moore consider it less likely that Harden will continue to make major strides, even though he has made major strides in his first three seasons at a consistent rate of progression.  Would it really surprise anyone if Harden added more wrinkles to his game next season?  Started making mid-range shots?  Started defending better?  Harden has a Top 3 Euro Step in the NBA at the moment, he didn't come into the league with that.  Is it less likely he makes huge strides now that he's a star?  Maybe a little bit, but articles like this oversell that angle.

 

Meanwhile, these articles always take it for granted that Ibaka is primed for huge leaps because the deficiencies in his game are in his head.  It's easier for most players to make improvements between the ears than it is to develop new skills, but Ibaka is not most players.  Was Ibaka appreciably better defending the pick and roll last year compared to year two?  Was he better at boxing out his man?  Did he show heightened awareness on the offensive end?  If he did, improvements in these areas seemed minor at best.  James Harden is developing skills and is a destructive offensive force after three seasons but there's no room in the imagination for him to get better?  Come on...

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8288218/projecting-win-totals-every-western-conference-team-nba

 

Wow these predictions are WHACK. 51 wins and a 4 seed for Minny? Denver at number 3? Phoenix last in the West with 28 wins???? They have San Antonio finishing at NUMBER FIVE. What a joke.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

can u share the insider article by chris palmer, "can okc win a title?"

 

its on http://espn.go.com/nba/

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

 @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson 

 

 

Overview

 

 

Last season the Thunder came pretty darn close to mission accomplished. After having been dispatched rather easily, 4-1, by the Heat in the Finals, the Thunder sidled off the floor with their heads held low and tears in their eyes. Theirs was a humiliating thrashing, but they did exactly what was expected of them: got one step closer.

 

The Thunder tore through the regular season, finishing second in the West without losing more than three games in a row until reaching the Finals. Kevin Durant captured his third scoring title and in the process gave LeBron James a serious run for regular-season MVP. Durant's game took big strides on defense and playmaking, as he proved to be a legitimate closer and firmly established himself as the second-best player in the NBA.

 

 

Russell Westbrook ran the gamut from extraordinary to maddening in the playoffs after a regular season in which he readjusted his game to mesh better with Durant's and evolved into one of the league's top 10 players. Oklahoma's City's other key pieces posted career years as well, with Serge Ibaka finishing second in Defensive Player of the Year voting and James Harden picking up the Sixth Man of the Year Award.

 

 

By getting to the NBA Finals, the Thunder avenged their postseason heartbreak in 2011 at the hands of the Dallas Mavericks. Now they find themselves back where they started -- motivated by postseason failure. After getting manhandled by the Heat in the Finals, they head into yet another season with a chip firmly placed on their shoulders.

 

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

thanks!

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson 

 

 

 

What needs to go right?

 

 

Even with the Lakers' dizzying offseason, the Thunder still represent the best chance to knock Miami from its perch. With their supremely talented roster, youth and, yes, playoff experience, they'll remain a contender for the foreseeable future. To borrow an oft-used phrase from the head coach of the team the Thunder are looking to knock off, "They simply must stay the course."

 

 

There remains a slight tug-of-war for offensive freedom between Durant and Westbrook, but it's nowhere near enough to disrupt their championship aspirations.

The continued development of Ibaka as a defensive anchor and opportunistic scorer (remember his perfect game?) will certainly level the field against Miami.

 

 

The Thunder have the one much-needed ingredient needed to take down the Heat: someone who can neutralize the enormous impact of LeBron James. Durant won't shut him down defensively (he will, however, make it tougher for James to score), but his game-breaking play can match James step for step. Durant, like James, is the rare star who can determine the outcome of a game by himself.

 

 

Oklahoma City has drafted well, committed to developing its talent and has been aggressive about locking the talent up for the long haul. It's a highly successful model that just might be the blueprint for accomplishing the final goal: winning a world championship.

 

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

 @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson 

 

 

Telling stat: 37 percent

 

 

That was Harden's field goal percentage in the Finals after shooting a hair under 50 percent during the regular season. That includes a brutal two-game stretch in which he went 4-for-20 in Games 3 and 4. Had Harden's disappearing act not come during the most crucial stretch of the season, history might read a little differently today. The immediate takeaway was that Harden's failure to deliver was ultimately OKC's downfall.

 

 

That said, there's both good and bad news for the Thunder. On the positive side, save for a poor series from one of its big three, the Thunder essentially have a championship roster as currently constructed. The bad news is it looks like they can't weather the storm against Miami if one of their key pieces is off his game -- meaning only at their absolute best are they able to compete for a world championship. Miami, on the other hand, soldiered on in fine fashion despite Chris Bosh missing a significant chunk of the postseason and never playing at 100 percent after the abdominal injury he suffered in the second round against Indiana.

 

 

Harden certainly has taken plenty of criticism for his disappearing act, but oddly it, in fact, boosted his stock and proved he's worth max money, and what would happen if he wasn't there? Without his usual brand of consistent basketball, Oklahoma City doesn't look like a legit threat to take down what could be a budding dynasty in Miami. Harden is just that important to the Thunder's success.

 

 

The big snag is that Oklahoma City, the second-smallest market in the league, will get slammed with luxury taxes in 2013-14 and 2014-15 if it offers Harden a max contract. The luxury tax threshold is expected to be $72 million next season. Signing Harden to a max deal would put OKC's payroll at just over $80 million, meaning it would have to cough up around $15 million in luxury taxes.

 

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

 @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson 

 

Key personnel

 

 

We could go on extolling the virtues of Durant and Westbrook here, but their worth is painfully evident, so let's take a close look at the two other cogs who could ultimately decide the Thunder's fate.

 

 

All summer there has been speculation about who the Thunder would keep if it meant they could afford the services of only Harden or Ibaka, not both. Well, the first shoe dropped Saturday when the Thunder inked Ibaka to a four-year, $48 million extension. Ibaka's blend of youth (just 22), rare defensive prowess and size made him a no-brainer for OKC general manager Sam Presti to lock up long term. The fact that Presti was wrapping up business on Ibaka on his own wedding day underscores Presti's acknowledgement of Ibaka's importance.

 

 

On his honeymoon, Presti can begin thinking about how to keep Harden a part of OKC's championship puzzle. Harden's value is unquestionable. With excellent size (6-foot-5, 220 pounds) and game instincts, Harden is equally adept scoring from the perimeter as he is facilitating for his superstar teammates.

 

 

What's more, his 70 percent field goal percentage at close range was four percentage points better than renowned finisher Dwyane Wade. The Thunder were 19-3 in games Harden shot 55 percent or better. But perhaps more important is his ability to mesh with high-volume shooters Durant and Westbrook without detracting from their rhythm or quantity of shots, something very few players could pull off.

 

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

 @RodneyRosavelRusanWilson 

 

 

Additions

 

 

Two of the Thunder's best attributes are youth and length. So naturally they went out and got two young, very long players. But it isn't likely that Perry Jones or Hasheem Thabeet will play much of a role in the Thunder's quest to unseat the Heat. Jones, a 6-foot-11 power forward/center out of Baylor, took a precipitous draft-day tumble to the bottom of the draft board thanks to a report "red-flagging" his knee, which many NBA team doctors believed could have long-term ramifications. It didn't stop the Thunder from snatching him up with the No. 28 pick overall in essentially a no-lose situation. If Jones' knee doesn't hinder his development or proves to be a non-factor in the coming years, he could be the steal of the draft.

 

 

Thabeet, the second overall pick in 2009, joins his fourth team in four seasons, an extreme rarity for such a high draft pick. Despite paltry career averages of just 2.2 points and 2.7 rebounds per game, Thabeet's size and length still tantalize, and the door is not yet closed on him becoming a solid NBA shot-blocker.

 

 

But Thabeet must first prove he can play quality position defense, pick up assignments and rotate in a swift and timely manner for head coach Scott Brooks to feel comfortable playing him the sort of minutes in which he can have an impact. If Thabeet reached even a third of his potential, a shot-blocking front line of Ibaka and Thabeet would potentially be quite formidable. If Thabeet doesn't stick in OKC, we could be looking at the end of his disappointingly unproductive career.

 

 

Miami, on the other hand, reloaded by bringing in a batch of quality long-range bombers, including future Hall of Famer Ray Allen (the NBA's all-time 3-point leader) and Rashard Lewis(career 3-point percentage of .388) to go along with Shane Battier and Finals Game 5 hero Mike Miller. While Allen is a significant pickup, it remains to be seen if the roster moves will actually translate to a better Heat team. With improvements to the individual games of OKC's big four (we'll see come November), it could be argued that the Thunder actually had the better summer despite fewer noteworthy transactions.

 

ElMexiThunder
ElMexiThunder 5pts

 @C-Wil  Predictions.

 

1.Thunder

2.Lakers/Spurs

3.Spurs/Lakers

4. Nuggets/Clippers/Grizzlies

5.Clippers/Nuggets/Grizzlies

6. Grizzlies/Clippers/Nuggets

7. Dallas

8. Minny. 

 

I'm undecided on who the 4-6 spots will be. All three of those teams are dark horses. 

C-Wil
C-Wil 5pts

 @ElMexiThunder What's funny is that the predictions state they took into effect Rubio's injury and that he'd miss 30-40 games. So what they're saying is that Minny is a 50 win team without him and with him, they'd probably win the west by a mile. They're probably thinking they're a 65 win team with him :\

ElMexiThunder
ElMexiThunder 5pts

 @C-Wil  Minny with Rubio healthy is anywhere from a 8-6 seed, Nothing more. I actually think theres a chance K.Love will get tired of being there and asked to be traded by the end of the season. Maybe be gone next season idk just feel like the dude doesn't want to be there anymore, and no i'm not saying he'll come to the Thunder. I'm just saying theres a realistic possibility that he'll be out of Minny before his contract is up. 

alvarex
alvarex 5pts

That PBT article echoes my exact feelings on the Ibaka vs Harden debate.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

Everybody thinks Harden may go for more money.  But another team could offer us something hard to say no to.

 

ElMexiThunder
ElMexiThunder 5pts

 @OkcBaby  Harden/Perkins for Love? 

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @ElMexiThunder Going against the Lakers would be tough

ElMexiThunder
ElMexiThunder 5pts

 @OkcBaby  True, no real size against Pau and Howard. 

This comment has been deleted

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

If James gets to free agency is there something similar to a poison pill that teams can offer on top of a max to make it harder on us to sign him or will it be as simple as deciding if he's worth the max or not?

 

I honestly think Harden probably has some doubts on if he can be a teams #1 option, i think the only advantage besides money is that other teams can offer him a starting spot, and even though he says he doesn't care i'm pretty sure he does. 

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts

 @OBoymuzik The only reason the Lin deal had a poison pill in it is because Lin's a second rounder, signed for only 2 years, instead of the 4 that Harden's had. It was a peculiar situation that rarely happens, from my understanding.

 

The only benefit of giving him max via RFA rather than straight up is the amount of the raises. Other teams can only offer about 4% annual raises, the Thunder can offer up to 7.5% if I recall correctly. So there is that.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @OBoymuzik Minny needs another guard

 EatSleepThunder
EatSleepThunder 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@OkcBaby @OBoymuzik I heard the ravens need a new kicker

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @OBoymuzik  @okcisgood Max plus tax

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @OkcBaby  @okcisgood i would still like to get an answer to the original question i asked btw

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts

 @OBoymuzik  @okcisgood Show em the money

OBoy
OBoy 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @okcisgood  @OkcBaby  @OBoymuzik american idol needs a new judge

OBoy
OBoy 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @OkcBaby thanks for answering my question

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