Monday Bolts – 9.3.12

Neil Paine for ESPN.com on Thunder vs. Heat vs. Lakers: “Complicating matters is Kendrick Perkins. The advanced stats are none too fond of the big man, with both box-score and plus/minus metrics ranking him in the bottom third of the league on a per-minute basis. Replace him in the simulation with an average center, and OKC’s odds shoot up; plus, you might argue he isn’t terribly relevant in a series against the small-ball Heat anyway, since he logged just 23 minutes per game in the Finals. At any rate, the league’s current Lakers-Heat-Thunder triangle projects to be as compelling as any three-team battle we’ve seen in recent memory. While it’s certainly possible for another squad to unexpectedly crash the party, we’re probably going to see some combination of those three battling it out next June.”

Dylan Murphy of Dime doesn’t seem to get it: “For all intents and purposes, the Thunder had a decision to make: Serge Ibaka or James Harden. Ibaka’s recent four-year extension clearly indicates, however, that the decision was made. Many have flirted with the possibility of amnestying Kendrick Perkins’ bloated $8 million per year deal to make room for Harden, but that still won’t cut it: OKC will still be at least $6 million over in year one, which is only slated to rise as the contracts of Westbrook, Durant and Harden elevate with each successive year. (Contracts are typically backloaded, with the yearly salary increasing every year.) So really, it boils down to some creative cap-fenagling or basketball fans coming to grips with a fact we’ve only skirted around. James Harden is entering his last year in Oklahoma City.”

Freddy Lopez of Dime: “Nevertheless, Perkins, instead, should be the odd man out in OKC and not Ibaka or Harden. The $6 million they would be over the cap in year one, in spite of a potential Perkins amnesty, is immaterial. It’s rare that a small market team has a window as wide as the Thunder do to compete for titles. Clay Bennett and Presti must continue to keep the core of this team intact for the foreseeable future, and while the Ibaka extension doesn’t push Harden out the door completely, it makes his potential departure more likely. It would be an utter shame and loss to the sport if they let Harden walk a year from now. Because there ain’t no denying Harden is hoopin’ hard for whatever jersey he’ll don next.”

Check out these cool Thunder drawings done by reader Evan.

Berry Tramel on Harden: “But here’s why I don’t think rejection of that trade and the realization that Harden will have to be signed are related. Making that trade would have effectively removed the Thunder from NBA title contention in 2013. So there’s no way it was a colossal mistake, or a mistake of any kind, even if Harden remains unsigned. The Thunder is not a boom-or-bust organization; it will be prudent and will not go all in just for a shot at winning the championship. But neither would Presti trade away title contention at this point. The No. 2 pick in the draft is a great asset, as Aisenberg said, but not all No. 2 picks are created equal. Bradley Beal or Michael Kidd-Gilchrist are intriguing prospects, but we’re a long way from knowing if they are difference-makers.”

Behind the scenes at those cool Foot Locker commercials.

Darnell Mayberry with ways Serge Ibaka can earn his money: “At first glance (at least statistically), Ibaka’s 2.7 fouls per game don’t appear to be a problem. But when you factor in his playing time — just 27 minutes per game last season — it becomes clear how much fouling limits Ibaka’s effectiveness. Ibaka averaged 4.8 fouls per 48 minutes last year, seventh worst among starting power forwards. The soon-to-be 23 year old has ample upside to warrant $12 million plus per year. But the first step toward living up to the contract and becoming a more complete player is staying out of foul trouble and actually staying on the court.”