Friday Bolts – 10.19.12

Rob Mahoney of SI.com says Harden deserves an extension: “It’s odd that Harden — who is a lock to receive a max offer sheet should he become a restricted free agent — isn’t already signed and sealed, but that has more to to with financial specifics than the Sixth Man Award winner’s intrinsic value. General manager Sam Presti and the Thunder are likely pushing for every bit of savings they can get at the negotiating table (as they should, given the compounding costs of the ensuing luxury-tax penalties), but ultimately they’ll need to come to terms with the fact that there’s only so much room to bargain down a player this young and this talented. Harden’s effortless combination of star-level production with a complementary offensive style is remarkable and far too valuable for the Thunder to let him go via free agency or even trade. The bill will undoubtedly be tough to swallow, but contending in the NBA comes at a cost, and for the Thunder Harden’s extension — on top of their other commitments — is it.”

Ethan Sherwood Strauss of Bleacher Report: “The Utah Jazz are like the Nuggets of being the Thunder. Allow me to parse that: They are a young ascendent team, much like OKC was and is, but they probably lack a superstar—like the Nuggets have and will.”

Pretty pumped about the new ABC/ESPN NBA Countdown show, personally.

Andrew Lynch of Hardwood Paroyxsm on stats: “I think one of the first scenarios we’ll see is those new defensive metrics. In particular, we’ll see how a defensive player’s spacing, relative to the man (or zone) he’s defending, relates to a team’s effective field goal percentage and points per possession. Then we’ll argue about how accurate those defensive metrics are — the basketball version of the debates baseball has had about UZR and the like for a while now. We’ll probably try to figure out a more accurate way of attributing an assist to the player making the pass and the player scoring the basket; it’ll almost certainly feature some sort of percentage distribution for the points scored, and it’ll include free throws generated as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see efforts to define the value of drawing fouls and causing players in foul trouble to sit, particularly formidable defenders. The possibilities are as endless as the numbers.”

TBJ is back and talking Thunder about 40 minutes in.

On leadership.

Sean Deveney of Sporting News: “It will be tougher sledding this year, but the Thunder will come back with new focus and determination, having come as close as they did to reaching their ultimate goal last year. It was clear that Durant, Harden and Westbrook all took last year’s loss to the Heat especially hard, and the result has been a productive offseason in terms of their work and individual improvement. That will show up on the court, as will the toughness gained from last season’s playoff run. It might still be too much to ask them to take down the Heat, but even with the seismic changes in the West, they should be conference champs again.”

Numbers Never Lie previews the Northwest.

A rap song about James Harden (somewhat NSFW).