Welcome back to Thunder Ground Radio. Your old pals, Joel & Brad are joined by Kevin Pelton of Basketball Prospectus to talk about statistical analysis predicts the season will turn out for the NBA and the Thunder specifically.
This episode also includes a recording of David Stern’s mom’s message to her baby boy…
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I liked this clubhouse the most.
BTW, changing the title of this thread from War Room to Fezzy's Panic Room
@FreeFezzyFel/IHateBrookies
Just close your eyes and recite the following until you can just hear it effortlessly:
And y'all was worried . . .
And y'all was worried . . .
And y'all was worried . . .
And y'all was worried . . .
And y'all was worried . . .
We don't have enough people who can score. I'm nervous that even though Russ or KD can go off for 40 on any given night, no one else is consistent. Optimistic about Martin but it will be difficult for him with no one to get him the ball in a good spot.
Brooks, you need to play the Brookies. They are the key to winning championships in the next few years. I'll say it.
@FreeFezzyFel/IHateBrookies In the meantime, I love me some Martin.
Continuing my total prisoner of the moment panic. I'm not terribly great at observing basketball, but to me, the offense seems so much more stagnant now. I'm not saying Harden is the only cure, but something needs to change scheme wise. I'm going to say something I wouldn't have said several days ago and will surely regret, but I would've been okay with Harden getting the max.
@FreeFezzyFel/IHateBrookies I feel like with practice and games played, we can get on the right track. I'm an extreme optimist, and I feel like the guys are getting better. We need to give it time to develop, that's all. Maybe Harden deserved the max, but we can't do anything about that now. He's doing well (after two games) in Houston and just wish him the best.
We actually DO have people who can score, a lot of the new guys can score, they just won't get the opportunity to see playing time, in my opinion.
@novelisticbee0 I like your second paragraph. I'm ecstatic over the prospects of Lamb and Perry on the court with KD and Russ. I feel like their main "issues" were with passivity and not being the "man." Well, as it wonderfully turns out, we don't need them to be the man, just the glue.
@novelisticbee0 If I'm responsible for the Brookies, I'd tell them to focus on defense first. They both have plenty of talent on offense and it will come more naturally, but Brooks will play them if he sees defensive intensity.
@novelisticbee0 I feel like Brooks thinks that because we're a contender, we can't risk rookie mistakes or whatever. Now that Perk is injured, hopefully it opens minutes up (obviously hope Perk gets healthy, rather him be benched for bad then injured).
@FreeFezzyFel/IHateBrookies I just want Brooks to understand that utilizing rookies is a GOOD thing. You don't have to use the same guys the whole game. Experiment a little. Give the defense something new to look at. If they don't know your game plan they'll take longer to stop you. Not like I'm a coach or anything though, but even I can see the potential lineups on our roster. You can get really creative with these guys instead of having them warm the bench for the starters.
@FreeFezzyFel/IHateBrookies Seemed like more motion in the offense to me today than vs. SAS at least.
Also, just to point out, Tyreke had a 50 point game. He came back down to earth afterwards. Plus, James != Russ as far as injuries go, he'll miss a couple of games here or there (I don't know that he's played a full season yet...)
@ou_sas I definitely agree that there's more motion tonight, I'm just scared of what happens when we see a team like LAL. I'm not scared about defending them, but I'm somewhat nervous about our offense against them.
@ou_sas If Chauncey remains healthy and Bledsoe progresses, I think it might be strong enough.
@FreeFezzyFel/IHateBrookies I'm not convinced their backcourt can get them all the way to the finals... they need CP3 to carry them too much, and his knees hate him right now.
@ou_sas I'm still waiting for the Clippers to dissolve into injuries and age. But if they get their shit together, they're a contender to make the Finals.
@FreeFezzyFel/IHateBrookies We're also in game 2 of our new team. I consider it working it out (Plus, we still look better with our additions than the Lakers do. I'm more scared at the moment of someone like the Clips - at least in the regular season)
Okay so...do we think the Rockets are making it to the playoffs now?
@novelisticbee0 I think its very possible. Hope not.
♫ I MISS YOU HARDEN ♫
♫ PLZ COME BACK ♫
PLLLEEEEEAAAASSSEEEEE
Can't we all just blame the CBA and stupid GMs/Owners
It devastates the teams it is meant to protect, and doesn't matter to the teams it was intended for. The whole deal just reeks of being forced in by the big money teams.
@cemitten I think it reeks of Stern catering to his good old buddy owners rather than what is good for the league.
That is assuming a competitive balance is good for the league.
@cemitten @Jax Raging Bile Duct http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H1iR2Wi3u5o
@Jax Raging Bile Duct and *puts on tinfoil hat* his job is to make sure that big money teams stay at the top, one way or another.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Big money teams being good is good for the league. Stern did his job. He did it well. His job is to help owners make money, not increase fan happiness.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct @cemitten I blame Mark Cuban.
@cemitten I already am blaming it on our owners.
But yeah, the new CBA didn't help us in the least.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct You're blaming in a different way. I blame them for the silly contracts. I blame them for letting the repeat offended luxury tax go through. I blame them for ever even giving players more that 50% of the revenue, which caused all this to even happen.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct If the lockout hand't gone the way it did, we would still have Harden. Plain and simple.
Hey guys. I've barely had time to read anything today, but it looks like emotions are running high over there. Just can't help but feel that James jilted us--even if it was mostly the doing of his agent. Right now, we're in that awkward phase where it's like we've just seen our former boyfriend (just go with me here) out on the town with his arm around the new girl. She's proud of him and he's lookin' good. Jealousy . . . regret . . . anger . . . disappointment. But deep down we know that the new girlfriend is a floozie and likely will never be good enough for him in the long run. He'll regret it alright. Still stings now though--especially when he's standing there telling the world how it's "all about the team" and that they've "got something special" there. Aren't those the sweet-nothings he used to whisper to us? But onward and upward (or chin-up as Royce says) . . . We've got a date tonight. I dearly hope he makes a good first impression. We just need that.*
*Any resemblence to personal experience was unintended and purely coincidental.
@ThunderChick2010 And to reply to your thoughts directly, I don't feel jilted by Harden, but I can see where having your hopes dashed would make you feel that way.
For me, I think Harden signing a 4 year max rather than a 5 year max is sacrifice enough. I think asking him to sacrifice even more than that borders on unreasonable.
I do relate to the remorse and regret though (except for the part about James dumping us, of course). I more so relate to the feeling of regret seeing him succeed like we know he can when we had the chance let him succeed for us.
@ThunderChick2010 you fit 10 periods into one pseudo-sentence. Impressive.
Ou_sas . . . thinking about copying this into the new thread. Bad idea? (I know that falls under like-whoring . . . )
@ThunderChick2010 I don't know why you'd be limited to posting whatever you wanted, whenever and wherever you want.
Whether or not you want to be heard by a intelligent community right now - that's a different matter.
@ThunderChick2010
I thought we were over here so we could discuss the Harden trade in detail without sullying the clubhouse with a series of long posts. May want to get Fezzy's opinion too.
@ou_sas @ThunderChick2010 Oh I don't mind it all if it is in the other thread, i just wasn't sure how other people felt about talking about Harden, that's why I shifted that discussion to over here.
Lots to reply to here about James. Sorry I missed it live.
I've already stated my opinion elsewhere, but to recap.
1. Totally gut-punched.
2. This isn't on Presti. His hands were tied.
3. This isn't on James. He made the right decision for his career. Sacrificing that extra year on his contract was more than enough sacrifice.
4. This is on Ownership.
5. Ownership just told the league that we can't pay to play with the big boys.
6. If you can't to play with the big boys, it means you've sustained enough success to make the playoffs every year, but never win the ring.
7. Go look at the past NBA champions and make a note of how many of them were teams who didn't pay the luxury tax. That's not just a trend.
8. We'll still be good, just not as good as we would have been for the next 5 years.
9. Totally gut-punched.
Oh yeah, one thing I forgot to recap... Harden > Ibaka. Always. This team or any other team. Talent overlap is a superfluous argument in this case.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Totally agree. If it was up to me on who to trade, I'd prefer to trade Ibaka than Harden too.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct I disagree about the paying to play, as 53/4 is more than enough to push us into the tax, but that's beside the point. Agree about feeling gut-punched though.
@ou_sas Wouldn't have made that point if we had gotten a long term contract worth that value in return. We didn't, which means that we aren't prepared to make the financial moves required to compete at that level.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Probably Presti's biggest flop. Overreaction to the playoffs loss the year before and signed Perk too early thinking he was getting a deal.
@ou_sas I'll change my stance if that happens.
I hate cheering for a team that pays Perk what we do, and refuses to pay Harden any more than what we offered.
@Jax Raging Bile Duct Fair point. I still feel like there's another move out there that Presti's going to make (Hopefully Perk for an upgraded Center).
I'm vacillating between upset and ok. When I first heard, I was pissed. Damn near inconsolable and irrational, but got more and more accepting of it over time. Last night's game has absolutely no impact on my thoughts. We all know he's good. We all knew he was good. Now he's on a god awful team who's next best player is a pg that is good enough to be a good backup on a decent team and thats it.
I don't think any blame should be thrown about. Its been discussed what the thunder profit margins are and how foolish it would be to cut that number by a third. No one will do that. I think Harden's agent gambled and got busted. We all know that players these days don't have any involvement in contract negotiations. It's stupid but it is true. Harden wanted to stay here, but that wasn't allowed for various reasons. He'll play well in Houston. The team will suck. I hope he doesn't get hurt with the work load that will necessarily be thrown on him.
As far as the Thunder team, post trade. No one can say anything at this point. We have to give it time. It might not be as fun and it might be risky in terms of getting a championship but you just have to let it play out. K-Mart could be our first REAL 3 point threat, ever. If he can make 2-3 threes a game we will be in the finals. Lamb is a decent piece that could turn into a decent player. It doesn't matter this year though. He won't play.
Also, I remember hearing somewhere that its pretty much guaranteed that the Thunder are going to have to build a new arena in the next 10 or so years. No way in helllllllll does Clay Benett of all people risk profit with that looming. This city will almost surely pony up the money for it, but Bennett isn't going to get caught with his pants down and no extra money to move the project forward if the city doesnt'.
I'm wondering if we didn't make a massive mistake of trading Harden. I will 100% admit that I am absolutely a prisoner of the moment but I think that we would have been better then the Heat in just two years with him and I have many doubts about being able to beat them without him (I'm not scared of LAL at all, I'm just not). I was a fan of the trade initially but I'm wondering if its just because I talked myself into it. I think we should have offered Harden 58 million or at least wait until the deadline, I think it'd be worth the tax. Once again, remember, I'm a massive prisoner of the moment and am likely to flip fop on Harden throughout the next decade.
On a side note, I'm still pissed that Presti didn't move from the 11th pick to the 7th pick in 2010. Could of had Monroe. With him, we might have won last year.
@ou_sas @cemitten I'm not sure if either of you guys still have the Thunder's luxury tax spreadsheet but if you do, could you link to it for me?
@FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 @ou_sas @cemitten If I'm being honest, I'm a little skeptical as well. I think it's the whole "unknown territory" thing that's happening. With James and the other guys, we knew what we were getting. We essentially have a completely different bench now. Lots of new faces, but I feel like we should hold tight and see what happens. I'm new to think stuff, but Presti doesn't come across as one of these GMs that makes truly head scratching decisions without thinking everything through.
Let's remember, there's no guarantee that we would have won the championship this year either. I still think we can make it back to the Finals, personally.
Now I need to get to class. Lol Game day!
@novelisticbee0 @ou_sas @cemitten I agree about the unknown territory thing. I'm definitely nervous about what happens now. I still think we're the team to best out west, but I think our chances of taking Miami down went South (Beach).
Eh, maybe I'm completely wrong and the BIG 3 and little 2 (along with the wonder twins, Thabo and Martin) will destroy people.
@FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 @cemitten First, there's a huge temptation to overreact to one game. When you move to (a) a smaller team and (b) a bigger role, then of course your numbers will grow. (It also helps to, y'know, play 45 minutes in a game). Remember, we had this sort of reaction to Byron Mullins (of all people!) when we traded him to Charlotte and he exploded. People were yelling that we'd made a mistake in letting him go. Time will tell. Of course he's going to be a fantastic player, but I fear that Harden was increasingly becoming a square peg, and in our roster, we have a round hole. We need someone happy playing third fiddle to KD and Russ. We'll have to see if Harden was that man or if he prefers being the lead dog on Houston.
I'm not going to argue moving from 11 to 7. I have no clue about what it would take to get there, but if getting there had taken Harden or Ibaka, would you still do it? Presti drafts (fairly) well, especially versus league average. The problem with that is there comes a time to pay the piper (or the player), and the new CBA is making it harder to do so - not by financial limitations, but by roster limitations. I'm sure you can see on the spreadsheet, but even at 53/4, in 2015-2016, we have $65 million tied up in 5 players (Perry is the 5th). We're gonna be over the cap, even at rookie scale/vet mins. And what happens if Howard is the dominant force everyone's talking about in LA and we need a big man of our own to defend him? Where's the cap exception coming from for that?
@ou_sas @cemitten I've been looking at the numbers and scenarios and that would have been brutal. But I still think that right now(very variable to change) I'd do it. I'd go as high as 58 million. I do agree about the square peg and round hole. It felt like it was possible something could be stirring in the waters as far as Harden not liking his role but I would have been wiling to risk it. In all fairness, I knew Byron was garbage in Charlotte haha.
As far as moving up in the draft, I think (and it pains me to say this) Jeff Green would have got us there if Presti traded him as well. I realize that there is no way we'd be able to keep him (Monroe) after his rookie contract unless everyone took their contracts down by an obscenely, impossible amount. At that point, I'd let Monroe go and do his thing. As for defending Dwight, I'd throw Monroe and Ibaka out there and hope for the best. I still think that we could defeat LAL in 6.
@ou_sas @cemitten That's an excellent point and will help this team a lot in the future I think. People now know Presti isn't one to mess with. He has control, he has a plan, and if you don't fit in it, you're out of the plan for something else. I would have loved 53 million and I think Harden should have taken it (I'd like to think I would have taken it to stay with the team, but what do I know, I've never been nor will I ever be in that kind of situation). But I wouldn't have been upset with 58.
I do trust Presti. There's no one better in the league in terms of diligence, planning, and just intelligence. And I do think we can probably still win at least two championships with KD and Russ, but I think with Harden, we could have been really special. But then again, Harden very well could have not been okay with being the third banana.
@FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 @cemitten And that 53 versus 58 is a choice that Presti had to make. That's why he gets paid big bucks. But with 58, you're talking about negotiation. From what I've heard, it seems like Harden and his agent were stuck on 60 and didn't once budge. As a negotiator, that's frustrating. You're trying to make a deal, you've got your limitations, and the other guy is being obstinate. So when you hit your limit, you say "this is it, this is the most we think you're worth, take it or we do something else" or you become the New York Knicks, and hand out bad contracts to everyone. Because if we cave on Harden, then Ibaka starts making grumblings about how he should be paid more because he sacrificed and he's the only one who did so. Then the next guy who comes around knows he can just hold out for his amount and get it because Presti'll eventually cave. Then we're not just 10 mil over the lux tax, we're 15-20 mil, and selling the franchise, and boom. Done.
(This may have been a little hyperbolous, but sometimes it helps to think of it this way). Presti sent a message to every agent who has to deal with the Thunder: "This is my turf. I have my values of your player. I _will_ _not_ pay more for them than _I_ think they're worth. Don't eff around with me." He's in a sense created leverage on the players out of nothing, especially if they want to stick around with KD and Russ. But if you think about it, he's changed the negotiating paradigm to his favor, something that no other GM has done.
@FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 @ou_sas https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgbOTqYzmgHidFU4dUxGZFU0T2xvVHVmWDV4a2FLZ0E#gid=0
@FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 @ou_sas took me a bit but I found it
@FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 @cemitten More recent one: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AgbOTqYzmgHidFU4dUxGZFU0T2xvVHVmWDV4a2FLZ0E#gid=0
Answer on the rest coming...
@ou_sas @FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 damnit
my computer doesn't auto load livefyre comments
I'm always behind.
@ou_sas @FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 I had to sort through comments in a thread. I was luck to even remember which ones you had posted it in.
@cemitten @FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 Since it's my document, I don't have to go looking for it either, which makes it quicker for me to look up. :D
@FreeFezzyFel/BIG3little2 @cemitten That spreadsheet has 53/4, 53/4 w/ Amnesty, 60/4, 60/4 w/ Amnesty, and current cap situation (as best as I can get it).