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Thunder Player Power Rankings: Next level

by Royce Young on December 3, 2012 at 12:20 pm 773 Comments

Layne Murdoch/NBAE/Getty Images

WEEK 1 | WEEK 2 | WEEK 4

The Thunder have put one full month in the books, winning 13 games in November, the most in the month since the team moved to Oklahoma City. (The franchise record for wins in a month is 14.)

I mentioned it after the game against the Jazz, but considering the situation, that’s nothing short of impressive. Or outstanding.

It was just two days before OKC’s first game of the season when the Thunder shook the roster up entirely by trading James Harden to Houston. The fears, the worries, the questions all poured in. Especially after the Thunder’s shaky 1-2 start.

Now they’ve won 13 of 15. Some perspective though: It’s been with one of the easier schedules in the league, yes. But again, think back to a month ago and the anxiety that came with dealing Harden. People knew the Thunder would remain good, but the amount of time to sort through things was the question. And evidently, it took three games.

Consider: Last season the Thunder finished second in offensive efficiency, scoring 107.1 points per 100 possessions. After 18 games this season, the Thunder are third in the league, scoring 110.1 per 100. OKC’s effective field goal percentage is up, true shooting percentage is up and the assist rate is way up (by 4.6!). It’s only a month of data, but by virtually every measurement, the Thunder’s offense better this season than last.

Four big reasons: 1) Kevin Durant is playing at another level right now in terms of offensive efficiency; 2) Russell Westbrook is distributing and creating better than ever; 3) Serge Ibaka is a legit offensive weapon and 4) Kevin Martin has fit in gorgeously. Now, I think the Thunder probably would be in a similar situation statistically with Harden simply because Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka’s growth were natural and to be expected. But that’s the point — the Thunder have grown organically as we expected them to, and have reached a new level.

On to the player rankings:

1. Russell Westbrook (Last week 3)

It’s early, of course, but there’s some light MVP buzz building around Westbrook. Mainly for this reason: When people assume one thing is one way and a player proves them wrong by exceeding that expectation, it becomes a narrative. And the narrative with Westbrook has been about his supposed selfishness, except he’s blowing that noise completely apart right now.

He’s averaging a career-high assist number, but not just that, he’s clearly understanding and running offense better than ever. He still forces up some bad ones and has some wild turnovers, but it’s all becoming more and more forgivable.

Check out Westbrook’s week: Four games, 16.8 ppg, 9.5 apg, 6.3 rpg, 3.6 spg. (And 5.0 turnovers per game, which obviously isn’t ideal.)

I’ve said it before, but I think the best measure of Westbrook isn’t actually his individual stats. But the team’s. Because everyone understands that raw talent and power of Oklahoma City’s roster. With two of the league’s most efficient and gifted scorers on the roster in Durant and Martin, the Thunder are built to succeed. And the only thing that could potentially hold the Thunder back from scoring effectively would be Bad Russell. So as long as the Thunder are chugging along offensively — which again, they are, better than ever — then you’ve got to tip your cap to Westbrook and say job well done.

He’s had to take on more of an offensive responsibility without Harden and has responded exceptionally well. That was the big fear of the Harden trade. No one questions Westbrook’s desire, competitiveness and ability, but sometimes it’s all a bit misguided. And with more of a burden falling on him to make the Thunder engine run, there was nail-biting as to if he’d handle that well. So far, so outstanding.

Is he an early MVP candidate? Absolutely. No question. Not ahead of Kevin Durant quite yet, but he should be in the conversation.

2. Kevin Durant (Last week: 1)

KD’s week was a less than his usual ridiculously impressive self simply by default. His stupid team kept blowing people out and taking away his minutes and thereby, stats. He still managed to average 25 ppg on 60.7 percent shooting (34-56). How? Because he’s Kevin Durant and that’s just what he does. He scored 12 points on 4-6 shooting while I was writing that last sentence.

(Also, take note of KD’s turnovers recently. They were an early blemish on Durant, but he’s got them under control. Since the Clipper game on Nov. 21 where he turned it over six times, KD hasn’t turned it over more than three times in a game. He’s averaging just 2.2 over his last six games.)

Take note of this though: With Durant on the floor this season, the Thunder are averaging 114.2 points per 100 possessions and 102.1 with him off. That’s a +12.1 difference. (For reference, the Heat are averaging 116.1 with LeBron on the floor versus 106.7 off, for a difference of +9.4.) But bigger than that, with Durant on the floor the Thunder’s defense is considerably better. As in a 103.2 defensive efficiency with KD compared to a 114.5 without him. No player this season is making as big a difference overall in terms of points per 100 possessions as Durant is.

Want to mention this too: The Thunder were expected to use KD a lot more at power forward this season with smallball lineups. How’s that gone? With 67 percent of his minutes coming at small forward, his PER is 23.1. With the 14 percent that have come at power forward, he has a PER of 45.9. I’ll email Hollinger and ask, but that seems pretty good.

3. Kevin Martin (Last week: 2)

After a few dodgy outings, Martin responded by averaging 16.8 a game this week on 46.8 percent shooting. And more than that, especially over the last two games, Martin appeared to have a lot more confidence and comfort in his role. He attacked more, looked for his own a bit and seemed to be finding a little of that natural scoring touch outside of just spotting up for 3s.

The Thunder really weren’t close in their four games this week, so the major question about his involvement went unanswered. But the more he’s involved — and involves himself — the more he’s likely to be part of crunchtime. Martin is very clearly a “flow” player. A guy that needs to be included and get touches if he’s to remain effective.

Martin’s actually been a pretty terrific clutch player statistically speaking for OKC this season (per 36 in the clutch, he’s shooting 80 percent from the floor, 4.2-of-5.3, including 100 percent from 3), he just hasn’t had much opportunity.

For instance, his usage rate is a respectable 21.1 percent. But in the clutch, that drops all the way to 9.0 percent. (Compare that to last season in Houston where his usage in the clutch was 25.8 percent.) KD’s usage in the clutch this year is 36.2 percent. Westbrook’s is 34.2 percent. Heck, Serge Ibaka’s is 12.3 percent. Point is, Martin has to be involved more in those crunchtime situations.

4. Serge Ibaka (Last week: 4)

Nobody took a bigger beating statistically from OKC’s blowouts than Ibaka. He went from averaging 15.1 ppg to 14.3. Just six against Charlotte, 12 against Utah and five against New Orleans.

But, that game against the Rockets was as good as any he’s played this season. The numbers tell it fine: 11-of-13 for 23 points with nine rebounds and six blocks.

Now, the Ibaka-or-Harden thing was never actually a thing because the Thunder never approached that as “choosing” either player. But in a default way, the Thunder did choose, and they picked Ibaka at 4/$49 million over Harden at 4/$60. I realize it’s quite the knee jerk reaction to base anything off that one game, but at least in terms of the sample size we have, if it actually was a choice, it appears the Thunder might’ve gotten that one right. Especially because it doesn’t look like Ibaka is close to scratching his ceiling yet.

Fun side story: After the Rockets game, reporters were circled around Thabo to ask him about his defense on Harden. Ibaka’s locker is right next to Thabo’s. One reporter asked Thabo something like, “I know he’s standing right there, but what does Serge knocking down those jumpers do for the offense?” Ibaka, hearing the question incredulously, and jokingly, popped off, “Have you not been watching me?”

5. Nick Collison (Last week: 5)

Just for fun, Collison’s per 48 stats are 15.2 ppg, 9.6 rpg and 3.2 apg on 63.4 percent shooting. No player in NBA history has ever put up those kind of numbers. Just saying, Scotty.

6. Kendrick Perkins (Last week: 7)

Perk put it bluntly after the Jazz game in responding to his critics. “Just check my winning percentage since I’ve been here.” So I did. Since the Thunder acquired Kendrick Perkins, the team is 80-30 (regular season). That’s a winning percentage of 72.7. That’s roughly equivalent to a 60-22 record. (With Perk as a starter, the Thunder are 73-26, for a 73.7 winning percentage.)

Obviously, Perk’s choice of words in saying “MY winning percentage” probably wasn’t the best seeing as that 72.7 has a whole lot to do with the fact he plays with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. Still, his point remains. The Thunder have been better with Kendrick Perkins — in terms of won/loss) — than without.

7. Thabo Sefolosha (Last week: 6)

Thabo’s still hitting 45 percent of his 3-pointers this season, a year after hitting almost 44 percent. I think this is becoming A Thing.

8. Hasheem Thabeet (Last week: 8)

Thabeet’s surprising solid production notwithstanding, he definitely endeared himself to Thunder fans by mixing it up with James Harden a bit in Houston’s visit to OKC.

I don’t want to take away from the encouraging play by Thabeet, because props to the guy, for real, but what does it say about a former No. 2 overall draft pick if people are getting excited about 3.5 points and 3.8 rebounds per game? Both are career highs, which is something, but still.

Also: If you’re one of the people asking if Thabeet should start in front of Perk or if he makes Perk expendable, pump those brakes. I’m as happy about Thabeet’s contributions as anyone, but if you feel comfortable with Thabeet defending Al Jefferson or Dwight Howard or Marc Gasol for 35 minutes, raise your hand. That’s what I thought.

9. Eric Maynor (Last week: 9)

There’s no denying the disappointment there’s been around Maynor early this season, but I think there were encouraging signs Saturday against the Hornets. Maynor attacked with some comfort, created looks and made a few plays. I think part of this is that people got it in their heads that Maynor was some kind of playmaking wiz that was going to completely light up the world off the bench. He’s a good player. But let’s not overstate him here.

10. Perry Jones III (Last week: 12)

I’m as guilty as anyone with this, but rewind to when Jones fell into OKC’s lap during the draft. Everyone was excited, everyone couldn’t believe that kind of talent dropped to the Thunder who were picking 28th. And yet, here’s Jones, 16 games into the season, and having made essentially zero impact.

Now, making a judgment on a young player early on, especially without seeing him play, is irresponsible. But there was a certain expectation that Jones could possibly have a real impact on the floor this season. Evidently not.

11. Reggie Jackson (Last week: 10)

Subtracting the extended garbage time minutes against Charlotte, three games, 10 minutes, zero points this week. I still think Jackson has some kind of future on this team, I just don’t know what it is.

12. Jeremy Lamb (Last week: 11)

Those two 3s sure were pretty, weren’t they?

13. DeAndre Liggins (Last week: N/A)

Liggins was in Saturday’s game against the Hornets for precisely eight seconds before he dove on the floor for a loose ball.

Inactives: Daniel Orton

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lmp5336
lmp5336 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

http://www.dailythunder.com/2012/12/tuesday-bolts-12-14-12/#more-23163

Keith00
Keith00 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Interesting tidbit, but Russell Westbrook comes in at the 12th worst shooter of the last 12 years.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8705240/nba-tyreke-evans-roy-hibbert-blake-griffin-league-worst-active-jump-shooters

 

Similar to Tyreke Evans (though thankfully not nearly as bad), it's not an inability to actually hit shots, it's an inability to pass up a bad shot for a better one.

DanielLawler
DanielLawler 5pts

 @Keith00 I think that has a ton to do with his first couple of years. He was a very very good jumpshooter last year, and the year before was pretty good. He always struggled with his mid range and 3 pt jumpshot in his first 2 years but now is one of the better mid range jump shooters around.

Crow
Crow 5pts

 @DanielLawler  @Keith00 Russ was much better from mid-range last season. Th s season he is well below what is average for PGs from all the mid-range distances.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

To comeback and be able to even step on the court from such a devastating injury and perform at a professional level is something that not a lot of people understand.  Shame on you

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XC_kZd5nSjw&feature=g-high

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @OkcBaby Derrick Rose is crying in that video because of the gang violence that has been going on in Chicago and the public school teachers on strike. 

twistdov
twistdov 5pts

 @OkcBaby shame on who?

 

And I wish the mc would have touched on the sacrifice and the pain of Rose's injury, not being able to play, and the mountain of work it's taking him to get back. I got the sense that's what was weighing on him, and he released a little of that during the unveiling. Can't wait to see him on the court again

ThunderBelize
ThunderBelize 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

MUST. GET. BOLTS. OR. ELSE.

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 I took a brief look at worst and best bigger minute match-ups for the starters in recent past (last two playoffs and last regular season). Looking to try to find patterns, it kinda appeared to me that the worst performing match-ups were more likely to involve facing a quality PG opponent, a good SF defender and a center who was generally either two-way strong or at least better than average at scoring compared to those faced in the match-ups with the best results. It is clear that the worst match-up results saw the Thunder starting lineup fail to score adequately. The defense was not terrible  on average in those bad games. For the match-ups that were big success both the offense and defense did their jobs well. To my eye it appears the worst results generally came against generally good defenses and with good coaches while the best came against weaker defenses with more of a mixed bag of coaches. When the Thunder starters lost the stats say they usually lost the defensive board badly. When they won they were solid enough on the defensive glass. More could be learned by studying the data and the tape for dozens or hundreds of hours of course. I hope the team feels they understand how the starters perform and do well or less well better now than they did in the past. Next playoffs will be the big test.

long arm of the law
long arm of the law 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Portland has 4 of the top 11 players in minutes per game.  4 players with 38 or more minutes sounds like begging for injuries.

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @cemitten It's not like they're known for injuries or something.  *rolls eyes*

ILikePancakes
ILikePancakes 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @cemitten Probably because their bench is absolutely horrid. Worst bench in the league

Stephen Jackson is not about this spelling
Stephen Jackson is not about this spelling 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @cemitten that's a bold strategy cotton, let's see if it pays off for them

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

Glad Brook Lopez is still out

Lambchop
Lambchop 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

If Russ can average 20, 10 assists and 5 rebounds, Whens the last time that has happened?

long arm of the law
long arm of the law 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Lambchop  http://goo.gl/ksPRJ

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @Lambchop  2008-2009. CP3.

 

http://bkref.com/tiny/NQGnw

TempBoy Brandon
TempBoy Brandon 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @ou_sas  @Lambchop Wow. It's only been done by Magic, Oscar Robertson and Chris Paul. That's incredible. I doubt Russ can get his assist average to 10, but he's been consistently averaging about 10 for the past couple of weeks, so I think he'll make a push for it. Pretty incredible.

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts

 @TempBoy Brandon  @ou_sas  @Lambchop  It would be tough.  He'd need to average about 10.4 the rest of the season to get to ten.  

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts

 @TempBoy Brandon  @ou_sas  @Lambchop  If Perk would quit stealing his assists by dumping off wide open dunks to someone else

SoonerSpens
SoonerSpens 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @ou_sas  @Lambchop  That would be quite the feat though - that's some pretty elite company on that list.

long arm of the law
long arm of the law 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas  @Lambchop  ugh.  slow refresh strikes again!

Lambchop
Lambchop 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @ou_sas Thanks!

 

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Evans also out tonight, so less super rebounding ability for them.

Lambchop
Lambchop 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 5 Like

We are 7th inteam assists.  This was unexpected and a beautiful fact.

ILikePancakes
ILikePancakes 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lambchop PROBABLY BECAUSE BALLHOG HARDIN IS GONE /s

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

I think if we get the #4 pick and he's still on board i think we select shabazz. Lineup of Reggie lamb shabazz pj3 thabeet sounds promising

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

 @Lost Ones can shabazz play 3? thought he was a solid 2

Stephen Jackson is not about this spelling
Stephen Jackson is not about this spelling 5pts

 @RRRWHATEVER  @Lost Ones IMO he's more likely to be a 3 than a 2 in the league.

ou_sas
ou_sas 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones It would beat any D-League team we play.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @Lost Ones we should draft best player available

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

@f5alcon most talented player in the draft if you looking at skill

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @f5alcon

 he plays for ben howland

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @f5alcon not bad, but not best on his team even jordan adams is shooting better. upper tier for sure, but not as amazing as expected. Just in the pac 12 there are 7 players averaging more ppg

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

@f5alcon 16ppg 5rpg 45% from 3 47% overall is bad?

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  yeah, though his numbers for ucla havn't been great

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

@f5alcon

Lambchop
Lambchop 5pts

Royce, I agree with everything you say about Russ today.  My only complaint is a small one:  KD is always number one.  His PER is godly and when the ball is in his hands, theres rarely ever worry over his decision making.  Our failure is rarely due to his mood swings.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

@Lambchop our failure is usually due to his moodswings , the days kd decides he wants to be a 3rd option and play no perimeter defense we usually lose.

Lambchop
Lambchop 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @Lambchop I confess, his perimeter defense incenses me to no end, but if hes not getting the ball, thats Russ's fault, which seems to becoming a thing of the past.  On many occassions last year KD went for 5 or more minutes without touching the ball.  I monitored this closely and it was Russ's, and to a much lesser extent, Hardens

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lambchop   @Lost Ones  @Lambchop what I find amazing is that even with those stretches where he doesn't get the ball, KD *STILL* gets his points (see past scoring titles)  He truly is an amazing player.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

I'm not a huge follower so excuse my ignorance but does coach nick make positive videos of teams or does he wait til the worst games to criticize?

Stephen Jackson is not about this spelling
Stephen Jackson is not about this spelling 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones He also made a video criticizing Russ after the spurs game. While certainly warranted, it would be nice to see a video pointing out what he's been doing well since (if it keeps happening).

Keith00
Keith00 5pts

 @Lost Ones And to be fair, LA's defensive breakdown in the backcourt has been a problem all year.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones he reads this blog/has posted before, so maybe he will answer himself.

beelieve035
beelieve035 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

So...let's win tonight guys. OK? Lol

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @novelisticbee0 I can agree with this statement.  +1 for novie.

OkcBaby
OkcBaby 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Team first! Lets keep the 100+ streak going. Just win baby!

BallSoHard
BallSoHard 5pts

@OkcBaby #RealtalkBO

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

How much is our offensive efficiency being hurt by playing deep bench so much? Miami's deep bench has played a total of  90 minutes. knicks 261 minutes. Thunder 185 minutes. Thunder deep bench 40% fg% knicks 38.3% miami 43.4%

 

 

TempBoy Brandon
TempBoy Brandon 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @f5alcon Good call. And while I love the fact that we are blowing teams out, I always get bummed out that KD and Russ' stats are going to take a hit by sitting out the entire 4th quarter.

Tronchaser
Tronchaser 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @TempBoy Brandon  @f5alcon I do too, but I think you have to take the Spurs approach.  All the stats, streaks, +/-, and all that jazz doesn't mean anything unless you win the title.  Keep the eye on the prize, all the rest is meaningless.  (It just cost the Spurs 250k for doing this though)

duhsweetness
duhsweetness 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @f5alcon Miami's been in a lot of close games recently, both NY and OKC have been involved in quite a few blow-outs, could be skewing that data.

Trackbacks

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    December 24, 2012 at 3:41 pm

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  4. New Daily Thunder.com Player Power Rankings: Final marks | New Daily Thunder.com says:
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