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Is Kevin Durant playing too much?

by Royce Young on January 29, 2013 at 11:53 am 1,184 Comments

Kevin Durant is potentially on his way to a fourth consecutive scoring title, something that would put his name along the likes of only Wilt Chamberlain and Michael Jordan.

But Durant has consistently sat atop the league in another statistical category during that time too: For the third time in four years, KD is on pace to lead the league in total minutes played.

Henry Abbott points out a fairly amazing stat in the video above: Since Michael Jordan, not a single player has won a championship playing 3,000 or more minutes in a season. Now, that’s one of those stats-in-a-vacuum things that seems like it really means something, while in fact, it probably actually does not. But it does at least bring forward a very legitimate question: Is Durant playing too many minutes this season?

It’s not even worth me asking KD if he thinks he’s playing too many minutes because even at the mention of that he’d probably punch me in the face. If Durant had it his way, he’d play 48 minutes every night, with a little postgame pickup to follow each game. And then maybe a game of 21 in his driveway when he got home.

But not only is Durant headed for his third 3,000-minute season, he’s headed for the most minutes he’s ever played in any single season of his career. This season, Durant (and Russell Westbrook) have only had three games each where they logged fewer than 30 minutes. Durant especially doesn’t just play a bunch of minutes; the minutes he logs basically count double. With the work he puts in defending, rebounding and then shouldering so much of the offensive load in the fourth quarter, he’s playing 40 supercharged minutes. It’s a lot different playing 38 minutes where you’re hovering around the 3-point line waiting on a kickout and playing 38 minutes where you’re the primary option.

In 2009-10, Durant played 3,239 minutes (first). In 2010-11, he played 3,038 (seventh). In 2011-12, 2,546 (first). This season, he’s on pace for 3,427. And again, those are loaded minutes, heavy minutes.

Something to keep in mind though: One reason Durant, and Westbrook, pile up the minutes is pretty simple and straightforward — they don’t miss games. Over the past four seasons, KD has missed a total of four games. Consider: LeBron missed four games last season, and had there been no lockout and he played all 82 games, he would’ve logged 3,075 minutes. (KD would’ve logged 3,165.) So add in a game or five of rest and/or injury, and Durant’s not on top in total minutes played every year.

If you want to trim KD's overall minutes, you're going to have to do it by sitting him entirely, which means you'll have to saw off his legs. Because if he can play, he's going to play. And play a lot.

Isn’t that a good thing though, that Durant doesn’t miss games? Durability and consistency is an amazing, underrated player trait. You want your best players to play, not sit. Duh. Gregg Popovich obviously doesn’t always employ that strategy, but comparing the Thunder’s and Spurs’ roster situations is like comparing The Who to Jay-Z. Entirely different circumstances, not at all the same. What Pop does for the Spurs is because he’s trying to manage an aged, veteran roster. Brooks has the the young legs of a team almost entirely made up with guys under 30.

If KD is healthy and available, he’s going to play, and he’s going to play close to 40 minutes. The only way Durant is playing less than 35 minutes is if the Thunder are smoking their opponent and KD spends the entire fourth quarter with a towel wrapped around his head like a burka while doing funny dances. If you want to trim KD’s overall minutes, you’re going to have to do it by sitting him entirely, which means you’ll have to saw off his legs. Because if he can play, he’s going to play. And play a lot.

(Of note: In terms of minutes per game, Durant leads the league this season at 39.6, was third last season at 38.6, fifth the season before that at 38.9, fourth the season before that at 39.5 and fifth the season before that at 39.0.)

You might be wondering, “Why doesn’t Brooks shuffle around Durant’s minutes a bit more and try and cut some of those heavy nights down?” The reason KD plays so much is pretty simple: The Thunder are so much better with him on the floor. If the Thunder intend to win, they pretty much need Durant on the floor as much as possible. Consider: The Thunder are 13.0 points better per 100 possessions with KD on the court. OKC scores 115.9 points per 100 with Durant, but just 103.6 without him. Total, OKC is a +410 with Durant, but a -34 without him. Really, the Thunder might truly be unstoppable if Durant got his way and played 48 minutes every single night.

If you want to rest Durant, you’re going to need to find a way to replicate his production, which means this might be more of a depth question. Because the temptation for Brooks is to ride Durant as long as possible, night in and night out. Especially because the Thunder’s approach is to value each game individually as extremely important. And why wouldn’t you if it’s obvious that Durant can handle it just fine and excel. Over the past few seasons Durant has developed into one of the best fourth quarter scorers, which suggests despite the minute load, he’s still got something left at the end.

But as Abbott wrote about last season, there appears to be a minute sweet spot for title teams, something like 33 minutes a game for the top three players. The Heat broke a streak of 17 straight seasons where the NBA champions top three players in minutes combined for an average of fewer than 35 minutes a game. LeBron, Wade and Bosh averaged 35.3 together, the most for a title team’s top three since the 1994 Rockets (35.6).

The Thunder’s top three players in minutes this season — Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka — combine to average 36.1. If they maintain that pace, that would be the highest average since the 1993 Bulls (36.3).

Is that something to read into? Again, stats are stats. Sometimes they tell you something, sometimes they don’t. It does seem reasonable that the Thunder rely a bit too much on Durant and while the difference between playing 37 minutes and 40 minutes any given night doesn’t seem huge, by the end of the year, it does add up. But I have a hard time believing that just because you played a bunch of minutes in a back-to-back in January means you’re not going to have all you need in the tank when you’re playing in the Finals in June.

Still, more minutes mean more work, the more chance for injury, the more wear and tear put on your body, the more fatigue you’re battling through.

One question I have though is about the long-term vision. The Thunder preach and live by the long-term. I think Sam Presti has “long-term sustainable success” tattooed across his chest. But if you’re consistently running your horses to death like this, aren’t you damaging those long-term prospects? Like how driving a new car 30,000 miles every year would damage the chances it’s going to last a longer time. Again, maybe that’s an adjustment for six or seven years down the road, but then again knowing KD, probably not.

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Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

Lets get the day going http://dailythunder.com/2013/01/wednesday-bolts-1-30-13/

BallSoHard
BallSoHard 5pts

Morning. Let's make it a good day, DT.

fireBrooks
fireBrooks 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

KD hasn't looked fresh lately in the 4th quarter. It's not just how many minutes but how you play these minutes and with KD repeatedly catching the ball at the top of the key and having to create all game long thru 5 defenders, it's no surprise that he's gassed in the 4th. He hasn't been dominant nor clutch in the 4th quarter for a good number of games now. What Brooks needs to do is use him more as a spot up shooter/cutter in the first 3 quarters then he'll be much more likely to take over in the 4th. But wait.. I'm just opening Brooks play book now and unfortunately all I can see is 'play hard' :( 

AlexR44
AlexR44 5pts

 @fireBrooks

 You missed the most important page. "Play with your heart"

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

@fireBrooks i agree with most of wat u said, but when have you seen KD tired?

fireBrooks
fireBrooks 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @thunderbolt  @fireBrooks I shouldn't have said KD is gassed in 4th, not fair to him, just no as sharp which explain some of the turnovers

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

@fireBrooks its ok, we all make mistskes (especially me), just ask DT fans

Sustainable Parameters
Sustainable Parameters 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @fireBrooks

 Liked for the user name. word! Yea, I can't imagine other Western contenders aren't looking at our predictable ass last 6 minutes of the game offense and developing a scheme to blow it all up.

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

@1 Knee 4 Points 5 Rebounds 35 Million Dollars @fireBrooks thats not going to be our offense down the stretch in the playoffs, we're just disguising how we're going to run our offense ;)

fireBrooks
fireBrooks 5pts

 @thunderbolt  @1  @fireBrooks I was shocked when they all of a sudden transformed and played team ball against san antonio last year. But then it turned into fools gold against miami. Just wished they would practice more team ball this year during the regular season. it's non sense to keep seeing that 2 man offense.

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

Surprise surprise, westbrook vs kobe...how could be smiling (and want to challenge russ) after seeing russ like this http://goo.gl/3z3ss

ThunderChick2010
ThunderChick2010 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

Good Morning DT!  It's Game Day Eve!  :)

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@ThunderChick2010 good morning TC :)

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

Here's what february looks like since its the shortest month, we have 11games...7 @home and 4 on the road (cleveland, Phoenix, Utah and our old friend in H town). The one that is definitely circled on my calendar is a game at home on February 14 (heat) 9 days after my BD :) birthda

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

For a BD present, i say we go 11-0 in february

AlexR44
AlexR44 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @thunderbolt

 Does Jan. 31st count as a February game? Regardless, I want them to go on another 12 game win streak.

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

@AlexR44 before you ask me that you should look at your schedule... ;)

okcjim
okcjim 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

I heard Presti on the radio yesterday and the most interesting thing I took away from the interview was while they're always actively looking to improve the team in whatever way they can they won't make player moves with one particular team in mind (that they're trying to beat). I wonder if we lost again to the Heat in the finals if that would change at all?

AlexR44
AlexR44 5pts

 @okcjim

 So, you're saying that the Thunder won't make moves with the Heat?

okcjim
okcjim 5pts

 @AlexR44I'm saying the Thunder won't make moves with beating the Heat in mind.  I think they could use another big3/athletic 4 to help guard Lebron but the Thunder wouldn't make a move with that in mind apparently. 

 

okcjim
okcjim 5pts

 @Podirk  @AlexR44  @okcjim Perkins has helped us.  He was exactly what the team needed at the time.  He's not anymore so we should be able to move on right?

 

AlexR44
AlexR44 5pts

 @Podirk  @AlexR44  @okcjim

 I know. Just playing Diablo's advocate.

Podirk
Podirk 5pts

@AlexR44 @okcjim You just named 3 players..3 teams. It was the right move for a Center who is no longer in the league and a tweener who wasn't worth the contract

AlexR44
AlexR44 5pts

 @okcjim

 I see. So the Kendrick Perkins move 2 years ago was to acquire an athletic center, right? It had absolutely nothing to do with Andrew Bynum, Marc Gasol, or Nene, right?

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

@okcjim didn't you post this yesterday....

okcjim
okcjim 5pts

@thunderbolt No I've never posted anything like this.

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

@okcjim yikes...

Stringer Bell
Stringer Bell 5pts

Saw the story about Iverson being offered a D-league roster spot. Sheesh...

 

Sad to see it go down like this. Really wish he could get a spot on a good team for the rest of the year then hang it up for good.

 

Hell, we have a roster space that if we didn't fill by the end of the trade deadline I would consider signing Iverson to a small non-guaranteed contract. I feel like our bench could do with the spark, especially if Brooks doesn't trust Lamb and PJ to get any minutes.

 

Or maybe I'm just being nostalgic. Every kid growing up in the late 90's had to love Iverson despite his many flaws.

 

*Sigh* I think it is nostalgia. 

Sustainable Parameters
Sustainable Parameters 5pts

 @Stringer Bell

 100% antonymous to a Presti guy

Legendary_Dork
Legendary_Dork 5pts

OMG please tell me Kenny was here to brag about this win.  :D ~

Legendary_Dork
Legendary_Dork 5pts

*scrolled down to see he was*  LMAO  ahhhh of course. 

Legendary_Dork
Legendary_Dork 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

LMAO  congrats  LAKERS , you barely survived a new team..well..old team..new name BY 5 WHOOPING POINTS OMG!!!!!!!!!!! CONTENDERS!!!!!!!!  *record scratches*  oh wait....whats this

 

Hornets free throws: 19-21,                       Lakers:  21-33  .     WOW.     12 more free throws and you won by 5? lmao *SCARY LAKERS*

 

lakers rebounds: 50 ,    hornets:  37

 

theres lots of other little things i could post here but SERIOUSLY,  how can you guys down there say we are doomed?    howard seemed to go off and missed half his free throws as well, oh and PAU only had 7  points hmmm 

 

yeah..still not scared of the lakers lmao

Legendary_Dork
Legendary_Dork 5pts

i realized a lot of you were being sarcastic and trolling as well, but you never know, this site is  a fragile egg when we dont have thunder for to long  :D  

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

Thunder aren't getting out of the first round if they have to face the Lakers, second round if it's Memphis or the Clippers, third round if it's Clippers or Spurs, and the Finals if its vs. Miami or the Bulls. We're really screwed. Have a good night 

OBoy
OBoy 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @GervinReincarnated  you've been so positive in the past that this really worries me!!!!!

 

http://goo.gl/XcJWh

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @OBoy Jones III I'm being sarcastic in the comment above. During gameday in the heat of a loss, when I say stupid stuff like in this screenshot, well I deny all knowledge of having said such stupidity 

OBoy
OBoy 5pts

 @GervinReincarnated  lol i don't think i knew how to take a screenshot back then so no. 

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @OBoy Jones III You don't have any screenshots from 2009-10 do you. Because I said some REALLY stupid stuff back then

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @OBoy Jones III How many screenshots do you keep?

OBoy
OBoy 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @GervinReincarnated  i grabbed some after we lost to the spurs on opening night because i knew they would be hilarious later in the season. 

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @OBoy Jones III Oh no! You discovered one of my past aliases. I knew I shouldn't have been forthcoming about that

tygablood
tygablood 5pts

@GervinReincarnated Lakers-Clips-Spurs seems likely and that would be one of the tougher roads in recent playoffs.

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @tygablood  @GervinReincarnated it will put some hair on our chest

Cold-Blooded
Cold-Blooded 5pts

To all those who like and to those who dislike thunder bolt, peace! :)

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts

As much as i enjoy all the ridiculousness going on at the moment, i would much prefer to keep my sanity this evening.  So with that i will call it a night.  Until tomorrow everyone.

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Does someone have some kind of KennyGee repelent besides for a Laker's loss?  seeing him gloat just annoys me

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt give it time. With every 3 game winning streak, a 3-4 game losing streak is right around the corner for .500 teams 

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts

 @GervinReincarnated

 I think you are being a little over confident.  They do have one of the greatest players of all time, plus potentially 3 more hall of famers on their team.  It would be foolish to understimate them.

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt okay I wouldn't really call it great. So kids don't watch Pollyanna anymore in grade school?

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt you're missing out on a great Disney movie then. Your loss

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts

 @GervinReincarnated

 ha no thanks.  I don't really look up insults other people are throwing my way.

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt look it up

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt I mean first round exits 

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts

 @GervinReincarnated

 am i supposed to know what that means?

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt and you're living in Pollyanna land 

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt especially if they go two years in a row and suddenly don't make the playoffs. You only get so many prime years of Westbrook and Durant

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts

 @GervinReincarnated

 you are being very close minded.  which is inturn very frustrating.  So i am done talking about all of this with you.

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt And that got Avery Bradley fired. Thunder either fire Scott Brooks, amnesty Perk, or something big if that happens because it means a team that kept getting closer and closer each year now can't even make it out of the 1st round

Dicharden
Dicharden 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @GervinReincarnated   @SexyWatt If Lakers beat the Thunder in first round, Thunder is blown up, only KD and Russ remain!

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts

 @GervinReincarnated

 it doesn't set us back 3 years.  i mean that is just a ridiculous claim.  It is ridiculous to hold the Thunder to a finals or bust expectation for the next 5 years.  Do i hope we get there every season well sure, but to expect it is just plain crazy.

 

A first round loss to a team that underperformed and then turned things around at the end of the season is not the same as a total choke job.

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt if Lakers get 8th seed and knock out the Thunder it sets the Thunder back at least three seasons. Completely unacceptable. Westbrook better tear an ACL if that's the scenario 

G.O.S.
G.O.S. 5pts

@SexyWatt @GervinReincarnated /// Mayans got the year wrong.

SexyWatt
SexyWatt 5pts

 @GervinReincarnated

 If sports were as simple or as black and white and predictable as what you are making them sound then people wouldn't be nearly as interested in them.

RumbleTime
RumbleTime 5pts

 @SexyWatt if they're a real .500 team it will happen. If they've suddenly figured it out like everyone is afraid of then, nope. They'll probably only lose 10 more games and kennygee gloating is here to stay 

Trackbacks

  1. A road trip in review: what did we learn about the Thunder? | JockSpin Sports Aggregator says:
    January 29, 2013 at 10:22 pm

    [...] Is Kevin Durant playing too much? [...]

  2. A road trip in review: what did we learn about the Thunder? - Sports News Now says:
    January 30, 2013 at 11:05 am

    [...] Numbers aside, are we hitting on something far more basic? Though it is practically blasphemy to suggest it, are the Thunder starters playing too many minutes early on, shouldering too much of the burden, and not giving the backups a chance to carry the work load? In fact, Daily Thunder’s Royce Young addresses that very point today: [...]

  3. Top News Stories 1 Kevin Durant Carries The Load Without Russ Espn | Top News Stories says:
    April 28, 2013 at 2:30 am

    [...] dailythunder.com [...]

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