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What’s up with Russell Westbrook’s shot?

by Royce Young on January 2, 2013 at 2:52 pm 111 Comments

Russell Westbrook hasn’t shot the ball very well this year. It’s become a bit of A Thing. With Westbrook, the mid-range game is off, but he’s also not finishing. And it’s killing his shooting percentage, which is down to 40.4 percent, close to his rookie level of 39.8 percent.

Part of it is that Westbrook lacks consistency. Consider this: Westbrook hasn’t had back-to-back games where he’s shot 50 percent or above from the floor yet this season. In fact, Westbrook has only hit 50 percent of his shots six games out of 30.

On a TrueHoop TV, David Thorpe diagnosed it like this:

“The one area I noticed with his jumpshot is he’s trying to shoot the ball at the height of his jump, which is really what a classy jumpshot is. But most players are shooting the ball on the way up, where they actually can get it off a little bit quicker and the timing is a bit easier. If you’re trying to shoot the ball at the height of your jump, by the very definition, you’re only there for a millisecond, the height, because you’re either on the way up, or the way down. And too often I think he’s shooting the ball on the way down.”

Like Thorpe notes, it’s incredibly difficult to repeat that motion over and over and over. And it leads to inconsistent jumpshooting. Then you add in Westbrook’s tendency to shoot off balance or to shoot with a defender contesting.

I’ve written about Westbrook’s jumper before and there’s no doubt he’s improved a lot in his technique and with his mechanics. But slumps happen to everyone. A little hitch gets in there, you overthink, you try and shoot too perfectly. I think that’s often what happens when Westbrook does the thing where he releases slightly late instead of at the peak. He’s trying to shoot too mechanically sound.

I’d add this too: I’ve noticed that Westbrook tends to shoot the ball with the palm of his hand. The generally accepted shooting technique is to have a little pocket of space between your palm and the ball when you shoot as you have it resting up on your fingers. Westbrook kind of rolls the ball off the palm of his hand, then to the tips of his fingers as he follows through and puts his hand in the cookie jar, so to speak.

Westbrook has worked — and continues to work — extremely hard on his jumpshooting and there’s no doubt he’s come a very long way with it since his rookie year. I think his low percentage mostly stems from him not finishing at the rim (hitting just 53.7 percent there, down from over 60 percent the last two seasons). On long 2s, Westbrook’s hitting a lower percentage this season compared to last — 36 percent this year, 43 percent last season — but if you look at his career, 2011-12 might’ve been an outlier.

The jumpshooting for Westbrook tends to come and go, game to game. Some nights, it’s money,  like against Houston. Other nights, it’s off. Where Westbrook used to make up the difference to maintain a solid percentage was by scoring consistently at the rim. Because like Thorpe notes, because of Westbrook’s technique combined with his shot choices, it’s going to be tough for him to be a consistently good jumpshooter.

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DanielLawler
DanielLawler 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Its hard not to love wbrooks overall game.. Hes 6th in scoring, 5th in assists, 3rd in steals, 1st among pgs in rebounding, off rebounding, free throws attempted, free throws made, and is 8th in the nba in estimated wins added to his team.. He will get this shot thing figured out. He is without question one of the best 5 or so players in the league.

burldoor55
burldoor55 5pts

 @DanielLawler Without the painfully obvious palming the ball....(,out of defensive trouble; Around big men showing up high; away from the help man etc.) RW would be back down to his early numbers, and rarely more than an out of control two man. It would be cookies, cookies. cookies for every defender!  I don't understand why the refs let him get away with it so badly. He is by far the worst offender.  Oh yeah, because he can fly! Too atheletic. too quick to be cheating like that!

DanielLawler
DanielLawler 5pts

he is starting to shoot better in the last 3 games and is 29-57 in the last 3.. I have a feeling he ends the year above 45 percent.

Legendary_Dork
Legendary_Dork 5pts

 @OBoy Jones III  man someomes trying to steal your thunder in the next thread~

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @Legendary_Dork  @OBoy Jones III lol no I'm not, just trying to carry the thradition on :)

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

http://dailythunder.com/2013/01/nets-vs-thunder-pregame-primer-3/#respond

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

The better question is whether it's okay for Russ to keep shooting if he doesn't get better.  He's shooting jump shots as if he's a decent jump shooter, but he's not.  He's attacking the rim as if he's a good finisher, only he hasn't been. 

SB718
SB718 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @justin_mia You're right he should never shoot at all.  And him not being a threat to shoot or score will of course allow Serge to continue to get all these open looks off his penetration and Durant to not get get double and triple teamed consistently any night.  Especially with the mighty scorers at the 2 and center positions.

 

Makes PERFECT sense.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @justin_mia even if it is not ok, i don't see brooks telling him to do anything different.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @justin_mia always good for russ to shot on this team makes us harder to defend, you just hope he progressives sooner or later.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

If I'm an opponent I let Russ shoot as much he wants.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

 @justin_mia Russ definately needs better shot selection. and i realize that the strategy seems backwards. is backwards. but i really think that is the strategy. 

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @RRRWHATEVER You realize how backwards this strategy is?  Since Russ doesn't score as efficiently as KD he needs more shots?  It's not like we're a great team at protecting the ball so getting all these shots up from Russ doesn't offer any benefits.  Our offense is great but it could be even better if Russ cools it on his shot selection.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

 @justin_mia i think the way they look at it is they need Russ to score no matter what. since Russ doesnt score as efficiently as KD, he needs more shots to get the team points. not hard, because he can get his shot way easier than anyone on the team. 

Im not saying this is a good strategy per say, but this is the thinking behind the "when Russ shoots more than kd, we win more" philosophy 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @justin_mia im sure that's been the plan for years. 

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

Im not saying we shouldn't want Russell to improve, I believe that Russell wants to improve more than anyone, especially his shooting. nothing wrong with dissecting it but just also accepting that he is still developing as a player and slumps do happen. of course i want him to get out of it, but its not like complaining about it helps him. this whole accepting him shooting bad because of his style of play is ridiculous, doesnt matter whether we accept it or not. honey badger dont care, he going to keep balling and trying to get better. we just gotta pull through it with him

MostJadedGamer
MostJadedGamer 5pts

 @RRRWHATEVER  Should traded Westbrook for Rondo when we had the chance. Can you imagine how unstoppable this team would be with Rondo at the point? Durant would probably be averaging 35 or 36 a game putting up numbers that Jordan put up at his peak.

OBoy
OBoy 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @MostJadedGamer  @RRRWHATEVER I would guess that you don't watch Rondo much. He's a more frustrating player than Russ and gets suspended/fined a few times a year. 

MostJadedGamer
MostJadedGamer 5pts

 @ThunderWins  @OBoy Jones III  @RRRWHATEVER He would make us unstoppable. Durant would get far more, and much easier shots, and he would get everybody else easier shots. The offense would be totally unstoppable.

 

 Rondo, and Durant would be a perfect match. I don't know how everybody cann't see that. Durant will never come close to playing at the level he should be playing at with Westbrook at pg.

ThunderWins
ThunderWins 5pts

 @OBoy Jones III  @MostJadedGamer  @RRRWHATEVER Rondo would make us easy to defend.

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @MostJadedGamer how long have you lived in crazy town

ThunderWins
ThunderWins 5pts

 @MostJadedGamer  @RRRWHATEVER and we would be looking up in the standings?

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 6 Like

 @MostJadedGamer  @RRRWHATEVER LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO

RRRWHOAAAA
RRRWHOAAAA 5pts

although pull up threes early in the shot clock are pretty inexcusable.

Watson
Watson 5pts

http://espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=amrkchn

 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Watson terrible trade

Watson
Watson 5pts

 @Lost Ones looooool

Bryson
Bryson 5pts

 @Watson This is actually really good. I'm not sure if we agree, or if Milwaukee does, but its pretty solid all around. 

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @Bryson   @Watson We would JUMP at the chance. Martin is the only guy we use in our rotations currently, we get rid of Pekins' contract, and we take on Varejao, Dunleavy(who is a great addition), and Henson who has been beasting? You'd be blind not to agree to that trade..

ThunderWins
ThunderWins 5pts

 @lethalizer  @Bryson   @Watson I would tend to agree with you if we had developed Lamb more and know we could slot him into Martin's place, but we have no clue.

ThunderWins
ThunderWins 5pts

 @Bryson   @Watson The real negative of this is - will Varajeo be healthy?   

IF we assume he's not its going to be small ball most of the time.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @Watson Pretty terrible for Milwaukee.  Your problem here is that you have the Thunder losing Perkins and not taking back a bad contract.  

Watson
Watson 5pts

 @justin_mia Should we take Monta Ellis? Then ship picks to Milwaukee and SAC

Watson
Watson 5pts

This one might make the Kings a little happier. I'm gonna keep tweaking it.

ThunderWins
ThunderWins 5pts

 @Watson you kicking in the raptors pick?

ThunderWins
ThunderWins 5pts

 @Watson Blockbuster trade

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

Westbrook shot 40% from 16-23 feet in December but only 49% at the rim.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @justin_mia and at rim is his issue, some of it getting fouled is apart of it but he still has to finish through contact.

BallSoHard
BallSoHard 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

"I’m also not with the people who say that we must accept the bad Westbrook plays because it’s all part of his aggressive style. Why sell the guy short if we believe he can be great? There’s no reason for why Westbrook has to take contested pull up threes with 20 seconds on the shotclock. He should cut that out because it’d be a mighty squandering of talent not to.” - Ethan Strauss

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @BallSoHard he's taking less fast break shots compared to before.

Bryson
Bryson 5pts

Slightly off topic, but what would everyone here describe our team's personality as? We have such a different cast of  characters, we seem to mix oddly. The Clippers are playing with a lot of swagger this year, the Heat are in seek and destroy mode, I'm curious as to how we would be described. 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Bryson  pretty boring we lack that edge, dang near spurs status.

Burk
Burk 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Lost Ones  @Bryson

so you mean with a "Championship pedigree"...I'll take it

O O O O O O
O O O O O O 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @Bryson  we were pretty fun w harden. lol not to bring up that guy. but there was a lot of fun to be had when those three guys were out there. now its just sorta like ehhhh. think we're sorta looking for it. 

Bryson
Bryson 5pts

 @Lost Ones That's what I'm afraid of. We need to play with more of an f-you attitude. I bet we'll find it in the playoffs, but I like seeing it during the regular season. 

Stringer Bell
Stringer Bell 5pts

 @Bryson  Durant-y?

Mr_F
Mr_F 5pts

So I've been looking at Russ's shooting breakdowns at hoopdata, and it's pretty clear that Russ's percentage from 16-23 feet last year is well above his other seasons. But can someone explain how a *whole season* could be nothing more than an outlier? I mean, a season contains quite a few data points to just write it off as an outlier.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Mr_F That's been long argued. Especially in those "contract years", people tend to over-perform all across the board. The shooting percentages, the raw numbers, etc.

 

As justin pointed out, shooters can have incredible seasons and then just regress back to the mean. I remember kapono having an awesome year and than just going down, I'm sure there are loads and loads of examples like him.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @Mr_F most of his shooting issues is at the rim, he's taking less shots from the 10-15 Fee andt16-23 Feet range which helped him as a volume shooter. i rather him have lower percentages and distribute the ball.

Mr_F
Mr_F 5pts

 @Lost Ones I also agree 100% that most of his problem this year is converting at the rim. Looking at his 2011 numbers, he shot over 40% from the field with the same % 16-23 as this year.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Lost Ones  @Mr_F He's shooting more threes, seems like he's moved some attempts from long mid range to three point range which is helping him. 

Mr_F
Mr_F 5pts

 @justin_mia  @Lost Ones And he's hitting many more of his threes. I guess outlier/regression to the mean can explain a lot of it. I'm just more used to "outlier" being a few data points instead of a whole season. 

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Mr_F It's not as uncommon as you think.  Happens a lot with 3pt shooters.  

Trackbacks

  1. Court Vision: Stoudemire’s return raises questions about defense, not attitude | The Point Forward - SI.com says:
    January 2, 2013 at 4:49 pm

    [...] • Royce Young of DailyThunder.com explores Russell Westbrook’s inconsistent shooting. [...]

  2. Wednesday And-1 Links: Is Serge Ibaka the NBA’s most improved? | ProBasketballTalk says:
    January 2, 2013 at 7:22 pm

    [...] • Russell Westbrook‘s shot 45.7 percent last season, this season that has fallen off a cliff down to 40.4 percent. Why? Royce Young at Daily Thunder does a great job looking at why Westbrook’s jumper has gone askew. [...]

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