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How the Thunder almost drafted Brook Lopez instead of Russell Westbrook

by Royce Young on March 4, 2013 at 3:20 pm 850 Comments

Ben Alamar is a professor of sports management at Menlo College in California and was formerly an analytics consultant for the Thunder.

He’s never been permitted to openly speak about his role with the Thunder because, well, it’s the Thunder. But now that he’s no longer affiliated with the organization, he’s gone public.

At last week’s Sloan Sports Analytics Conference at MIT, Alamar spoke with Grantland’s Zach Lowe about his role with the Thunder and how analytics pushed OKC in drafting Russell Westbrook and not Brook Lopez.

Incredibly interesting stuff. Praise be to analytics.

Also, Alamar has a book out with a lot of Thunder stuff in it. You can pick that up here.

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CLthunderfan
CLthunderfan 5pts

http://dailythunder.com/2013/03/tuesday-bolts-3-5-13/#respond

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

raptors on 5 game losing streak, our pick is starting to improve again.

TempBoy Brandon
TempBoy Brandon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @f5alcon I'm pumped about this. If we can somehow end up with a 5-7 pick next year, I'll be ecstatic. I had resigned myself to the fact that we'd be getting the 10-12 pick. So this losing streak is exciting.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @f5alcon we need them to lose like 10 more games

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones they play a bunch of the teams behind them, so if the suns, pistons and cavs can beat them they could all pass them and we would be back to top 6 pick

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @KCScuba  washington has been pretty good lately. They can beat the raptors.

KCScuba
KCScuba 5pts

 @f5alcon  @Lost Ones They have a few Charlotte and Washington games, but otherwise fairly tough schedule down the stretch.

AIaska
AIaska 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Game day! I'm too giddy right now I've been looking forward to this for months!

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @AIaska Hope you have a great time, man.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

you guys can keep on dreaming we are not going deep into the tax for martin if the cap doesn't rise. we will instead use the MLE

AIaska
AIaska 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Lost Ones I don't think anyone is begging for martin to be signed to a huge contract. But I'd like to keep him 

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @AIaska we are just about at the edge of the tax line before signing him anything we sign him for will be "huge"

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @f5alcon  @lethalizer we would have traded either serge or harden after this season

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @lethalizer  We would have been 10 million in the tax if harden agreed to the contract

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @Lost Ones Our ownership group is worth some 6 or 7 billion, maybe more, mclendon is a minority owner, we maybe 30 million based on numbers before the lockout season, making the finals last year is going to push that up more.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @f5alcon our owners are relatively "poor" in terms of wasting money on a gambled investment in sports. one of our owners is going through financial/ethical problems(Aubrey McClendon ) is he someone you can count on to belly up the cash on a recreation?  over 95% of the teams in the league will not pay the tax for 3+ years especially not a small market organization. the knicks with a huge TV contract refused to pay lin when they could have also banked cash on him as well.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @f5alcon  @Lost Ones No owners in the NBA are poor people.

 

Not deciding to pay the tax is another thing though. Especially with this new CBA, small-market teams like the Thunder will probably NEVER elect to pay that tax. Richest teams may pay it once in 2-3 years and that's it.

 

He is right, keeping Martin and avoiding the tax is nearly impossible, so Martin will probably be gone next season.

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @Lost Ones  You act like the team doesn't make money are our owners are poor.

KD4theWin
KD4theWin 5pts

 @Lost Ones  @AIaska I think we will try to make a sign and trade..if possible..IDK with this CBA... but if its possible..and Martin doesn't take a huge paycut..he won't be here next year..and I'm fine with that..he is not irreplaceable..

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @Lost Ones It seems like the general sentiment on the board now is that KMart won't be back next year.  Does anyone disagree?

f5alcon
f5alcon 5pts

 @FF_pickups  I think he will be, but I agree the sentiment is that he won't.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @FF_pickups @[censored]  thought he would be

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Wow, Dwight.

 

"My team in Orlando was a team full of people that nobody wanted. And I led that team with a smile on my face."

 

1) Earl Clark and Chris Duhon say hi. They like to wear a purple-and-gold jersey sometimes. Just for kicks.

 

2) Arenas sends his gratitude, the guy you practically "begged" for.

 

3) Vince Carter will now set his Hall-of-Famer ass on fire.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @lethalizer To his credit he did lead a bunch of scrubs to the Finals.  Dwight on defense that year was out of this world.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts

 @[censored]  @lethalizer hedo and lewis carried his ass as well.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @[censored]  @Lost Ones  I'm not questioning Dwight's greatness here. I'm questioning the "besides Dwight, the whole team was scrubs" thing.

 

Hedo being able to handle the ball and also being able to play pick and roll with Dwight helped that team immensely. Lewis on the corner 3's were also deadly on the playoffs, I think he shot %45+ or so on them for the playoffs.

 

Dwight's greatness+other players stepping up+SVG were the factors for Magic's success that season.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored]  @lethalizer both made it possible for him to operate offensively, hedo was a exception post entry player and a floor spreader same with lewis. dwight provided the defense without them he would have struggled offensively. the system helped him/them a lot

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @[censored]  Dwight is/was great.  I think if they had a good coach in LAL, Dwight would get back to being Dwight and the Lakers would be formidable.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  @lethalizer To the 11th ranked offense?  Orlando had the #1 defense that year with Rashard Lewis and Hedo Turkoglu starting at SF and PF.  Think about that.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @[censored] Even though I'm Turkish, I dislike Hedo. But him and Lewis played out of their minds on 2009. Certainly not scrub-material players back then.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts

 @lethalizer On defense they certainly were...

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @lethalizer The steroids have driven him over the edge.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups Oh, and the Lakers will visit Orlando for the first time since the trade.

 

It's a shame Orlando sucks right now, that could be a hell of a game.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @FF_pickups *will visit Orlando for the first time next week.

T-Fred
T-Fred 5pts

Joey Crawford is officiating tonight 

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @tydude This should be on here:

 

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/JOEY-CRAWFORD.gif

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @lethalizer  @tydude He trots 40 feet and gives the blocking sign not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4 but 5 times. 

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Blood-Game  Either he ran out of breath or he wanted to see Kobe's reaction

Blood-Game
Blood-Game 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@FF_pickups @lethalizer @tydude what happen to six and seven?

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @tydude YAY!

This comment has been deleted

Blood-Game
Blood-Game 5pts

@MJOKC @tydude and you can book it!

Blood-Game
Blood-Game 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@FF_pickups @MJOKC @tydude don't guess bro, like i said, you can book it!

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Blood-Game  @MJOKC  @tydude 

We had Danny Crawford on our side last game so I guess we owe one.

Blood-Game
Blood-Game 5pts

Lol, howard blame hard fouls for his injuries!. . .umm, does anyone ever knock howard to the floor like what KD got in that miami game (just for example)? This dude is really a big cry babe.

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @Blood-Game

 Does he blame hard fouls for him acting like a whiny diva for the past 2 years?

Blood-Game
Blood-Game 5pts

@anonymous12345 lol i think players secretly hate his guts

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @Blood-Game He is not wrong though. He gets fouled pretty hard. The thing is, dominant big guys like him always get fouled hard. He has to adjust to it.

 

Comparing KD's fouls to him really isn't fair. Durant knows %90 of the time when he'll get fouled, and he relies on his finesse to draw the fouls, not on his strength.

KD4theWin
KD4theWin 5pts

I think this year we will amnesty perkins..I just feel like if we are going to resign martin he will be..and we will get a center with our lottery pick, and from free agency

DXL
DXL 5pts

 @KD4theWin Chances of OKC amnestying Perk = NIL.

 

How much good defensive centers cost? A lot. Perk's contract is market value for his defensive contributions.

 

Perimeter players are a dime a dozen. There's always productive guys available for cheap: see Dallas's pickup of Mayo and Carter.

DXL
DXL 5pts

 @KD4theWin Amnestying Perk and starting, let's say, a rookie Rudy Gobert or Isiah Austin, at center = how to turn a top 5 defense into a bottom 5 defense.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @KD4theWin Amnestying Perk is not an option. You still have to pay his salary.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @lethalizer  There is an auction for the amnestied player.  Whatever the highest bid is is subtracted from how much the Thunder owe so the Thunder wouldn't be on the hook for his entire contract.

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @FF_pickups  @lethalizer

 I looked it up.  I confused 'worst teams' with 'teams under the cap'.  Of course those aren't mutually exclusive

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @lethalizer  @anonymous12345 

I think each team makes one secret bid and the player goes to the highest bidder.  There are some minimum amounts that have to be met in the bidding process and only teams that are under the cap are allowed to bid.

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @anonymous12345  @FF_pickups Yeap, you are :)

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts

 @lethalizer  @FF_pickups

 I'm still a little confused on how the bidding works?  I thought it worked some what like the waiver wire, where the worse teams get first dibs.  Or am I completely making that  up?

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts

 @FF_pickups Fair enough. But Scola has always been a decent contributor on offense. And teams tend to pay more for players like him.

 

I know Perk has a rep for being a defensive center, and he still has most of the GMs' respect too. But when it comes to an amnesty auction and actually paying him, they probably will be reluctant to do so.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @anonymous12345  Yeah, I'm not arguing that they will amnesty Perkins just that we wouldn't have to pay the entire salary.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @lethalizer Scola was at least 3 million

anonymous12345
anonymous12345 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @lethalizer  @FF_pickups

 You wanna know how I know they won't amnesty Perkins?  Because James Harden isn't here. 

lethalizer
lethalizer 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups Yeah I know that, but who will bid even half of Perk's salary at the auction?

 

Elton Brand was claimed for like 2-3 million I think. What was the highest bid for an amnestied player?

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