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Player Power Rankings: Wide margins

by Royce Young on March 18, 2013 at 1:45 pm 1,830 Comments
Screen Shot 2013-03-18 at 1.40.56 PM

Glenn James/NBAE/Getty Images

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The Thunder are winning games by an average of 9.5 points. That’s 1.5 points better than the next closest team (Spurs). In terms of historical precedent, that’s pretty darn good.

Here’s margin of victory for the last 11 NBA champions:

  • 2011-12 Miami Heat: 6.0
  • 2010-11 Dallas Mavericks: 4.2
  • 2009-10 Los Angeles Lakers: 4.7
  • 2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers: 7.3
  • 2007-08 Boston Celtics: 10.3
  • 2006-07 San Antonio Spurs: 8.4
  • 2005-06 Miami Heat: 3.9
  • 2004-05 San Antonio Spurs: 7.8
  • 2003-04 Detroit Pistons: 5.8
  • 2002-03 San Antonio Spurs: 5.4
  • 2001-02 Los Angeles Lakers: 7.1

Margin of victory is not necessarily the best indicator of a forthcoming NBA champion, but the Thunder are currently headed for a close to all-time number. The past 11 seasons, only the Celtics had a better than 9.5 margin. Historically speaking, if the Thunder maintain their margin of victory, it would be better than the 1987 Lakers, 1986 Celtics, 1991 Bulls, 1988 Lakers and 1999 Spurs. For reference, the greatest team ever, the 1996 Bulls had a margin of victory of 12.2.

Point is, this Thunder team is pretty good. Last season, their margin was 6.5. So in that regard, they’ve improved. Quite a lot.

Player rankings:

1. Kevin Durant (Last week: 1)

It’s been kind of a strange few weeks for KD. Statistically speaking, he’s still producing, albeit a bit less efficiently. It’s just that he’s seemed a tad, what’s the word, selective?

Before he scored 31 on 19 shots against the Mavs on Sunday, Durant didn’t take more than 16 shots his previous five games. And before that, he went four straight games with 20 or more shots. It might be unrelated and coincidental. but in those games with 20 or more attempts, KD shot just 42.5 percent from the floor. In the five games after, he shot 49.2 percent. (It should be noted, two of those games were blowouts where KD sat the fourth.)

But even Sunday against Dallas, Durant had taken only eight shots entering the fourth quarter. It was hard to deny that something was up. He’d been turning the ball over more and shooting less. So what’s been the deal? Is the 50-40-90 thing in his head? Or could it just be that he’s a little bored and is ready for the postseason? Or is it simply just a little late season slump, something a lot of Team USA guys seem to be dealing with right now?

Who knows, but KD definitely appeared to be his old dominant offensive self in the fourth quarter against the Mavs, taking over a game that he had previously been coasting in. I think part of this might be because Durant has been able to chill a bit because of Russell Westbrook’s rise to a dominant scorer that can carry a team. KD is such an unselfish player that I think he has no problem taking a back seat and sort of relaxing.

Even with his so-called down time, KD still averaged 26.5 points on 53.3-38.4-90.2 percentages. Even when he’s bad, he’s so, so, so good.

2. Russell Westbrook (Last week: 2)

Because of Durant’s slip in play — and by “slip” I mean that he’s not been completely otherworldly for a change –  Westbrook has really blossomed. You wouldn’t have to struggle to make a case that he’s been OKC’s best player the last month and a half. He’s followed up maybe the best month of his career in February with another strong March thus far.

One thing that’s definitely been a casualty of Westbrook’s scoring surge has been his assist numbers. He’s only had two double-digit assist nights since Feb. 1, after having 13 the three months previous. That doesn’t bother me one bit, but for those dumb-dumbs that like to use his assist numbers as a reference for his supposed selfishness, it would be nice if that came up a little.

3. Serge Ibaka (Last week: 3)

Not that I expect Ibaka to put up 18-16-3 on a nightly basis, but the kind of impact he had against the Mavs on Sunday is how he should be playing on a nightly basis. Ibaka’s size and athleticism puts him in a rare tier of NBA athletes, and it’s something he needs to use to impact the game more routinely. It’s something David Thorpe perfectly pointed out about Westbrook — that he plays athletic. Ibaka needs to do the same.

He’s reestablished himself as OKC’s third best player and finally had that look of maybe being the best player on the floor at times against Dallas. We forget that this is officially Ibaka’s breakout season and that he’s only going to build from here. Last week he averaged 15.2 points on 65.7 percent shooting. He was a beast on the boards, protected the paint and was aggressive with his own offense. That’s the Serge Ibaka that can have enough of an impact to take the Thunder to another level in the postseason.

4. Kendrick Perkins (Last week: 5)

KD made the statement recently that Perk should be All-Defense this season. Which All-Defense? I don’t know. But is there any validity to this? I realize, it kind of sounds mildly ridiculous on the surface, but there is at least an argument to be made. The stats kind of bear it out — Perk’s defensive rating is 98.0, which is very solid — and when Perk is on the floor opposing teams shot just 52.7 percent from the field inside of five feet (which is very good).

In isolation, opposing players shoot just 29.4 percent against Perk, 40.5 percent in post-ups and 35.4 percent overall. Overall, opposing player average 0.73 points per play against Perk. For comparison, last season’s Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler is allowing 38.8 percent overall, 36 percent in isolation, 34.6 percent in post-ups and 0.78 points per play. Defending the pick-and-roll, opposing teams average 0.61 points per play against Perk, 0.74 against Chandler.

Perk doesn’t have the big traditional stats like rebounds or blocks, but if you pay attention when he’s on the floor, he’s outstanding defending opposing bigs in isolation as well as most pick-and-roll situations. It’s easy to rag on Perk because he’s clumsy, not much of an offensive threat and doesn’t rebound, but in terms of straightforward interior defense, he’s extremely good.

For example, this week defending both Tim Duncan and Al Jefferson, Perk did tremendous work on both, forcing them away from the basket, turning five foot shots into eight foot shots. In some situations, Perk doesn’t really have a place on the floor (cough, Miami). But in select circumstances, he’s almost invaluable defensively.

5. Kevin Martin (Last week: 6)

One of the most confusing things about this season has been how Martin seems to have fit best with the Thunder earlier in the season than later. Isn’t that opposite of the “it’s just going to take some time” stuff we all heard about him fitting?

Consider: In Martin’s first two months with the Thunder, he scored 20 or more points six times. He hasn’t score at least 20 since Feb. 6 against the Warriors. That’s 17 games. He’s slowly being weened out it seems. The team is becoming more and more Durant and Westbrook focused, with Martin almost an offensive afterthought. It’s kind of weird, right? Here’s a thing about it though: Martin’s shot attempts haven’t exactly slipped much. He’s still taking almost 10 a game. He’s just not making a lot of those shots he was making.

6. Reggie Jackson (Last week: 4)

Kevin Durant was asked who he thought the most underrated offensive player on the team recently and he picked Jackson, saying he might even be the second best on the roster. Yep, meaning on Westbrook’s level. Sounds bold, but you can see the flashes and KD has the luxury of watching Jackson torch his unit in practice.

I’ve recently started wondering if Jackson could sort of replicate James Harden’s role as a creative scoring force off the bench. Obviously he’s not the same kind of skilled offensive player as Harden, but Jackson can play both guard spots, is a good finisher and a decent jumpshooter.

Scott Brooks always said last season he viewed Harden as a combo guard and not a shooting guard, so I asked him if he thought of Jackson in the same way. Brooks said he sees Jackson as more of a point guard, which is fine, as long as he’s not strictly limited to being Westbrook’s backup for the next few years. He needs room to grow, room to expand his game. He’s building his confidence and along with it, the Thunder are getting glimpses of a dynamic bench option.

7. Nick Collison (Last week: 7)

Scott Brooks too was asked before the game against the Magic who he thought the most underrated offensive player on the team is and he picked Collison, citing a 2003 NCAA tournament game where he watched him drop 33 on Duke.

8. Thabo Sefolosha (Last week: 8)

Thabo is headed for a second consecutive year of better than 40 percent shooting from 3. I don’t think he gets near enough recognition for this.

9. Perry Jones III (Last week: N/A)

We’ll always have those 11 minutes against the Magic. 

10. Derek Fisher (Last week: 9)

I feel like I need to ask this again: Why is Derek Fisher a shooting guard for the Thunder? WHY.

11. Hasheem Thabeet (Last week: 10)

Thabeet’s been out with a back injury the past two games. Clearly, because he’s worn down from carrying this team.

12. Ronnie Brewer (Last week: 11)

Wait, who’s Ronnie Brewer? Is he on the Thunder?

Inactives: Daniel Orton, Jeremy Lamb, DeAndre Liggins

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Blood-Game
Blood-Game 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

http://dailythunder.com/2013/03/tuesday-bolts-3-19-13/

CLthunderfan
CLthunderfan 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

Make sure you sign up for my Bracket Challenge on Yahoo. I will be giving away an autograph of one of the starters on the team (dont worry MJ its not perk) the group ID is 78568 password is nickcollison.   

dollarbillrussell
dollarbillrussell 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CLthunderfan Why won't this work for me?! The ID and password are working for everyone else??

CLthunderfan
CLthunderfan 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @dollarbillrussell did you try and put a space between nick and collision? also no caps 

CLthunderfan
CLthunderfan 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @dollarbillrussell it says your in now. 

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

KMart playing well correlates very highly with winning:

 

Gamescore > 8     Record = 37-5

Gamescore < 8     Record = 12-11

 

So if we took KMart and replaced him with Harden, would a 70 win season as Bill Simmons suggested, unreasonable?

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

James Harden had only 12 games with a gamescore below 8 last year and he's a lot better this year.  Plus, his D is better than KMart's.  I agree that we wouldn't be the favorite to win 70, but I think it would be not out of the question.

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @FF_pickups I think we'd have a Top 25 offense of all time.  We're at 113 points per 100 possessions now as it is.  Imagine another year with Harden.  Nuts.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored] I think top 25 all time is probably too low.  I mean, we'd have 3 of the top 10 shot creators in the league and one of them is willing to play on the bench.  There would literally never be a break for the opponent.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups totally unreasonable I think the heat could if they focused more on defense

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups 70 wins is always unreasonable but it'd be a lot more likely.

dollarbillrussell
dollarbillrussell 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

What's the password for the Yahoo bracket that CLthunderfan created? 

CLthunderfan
CLthunderfan 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @dollarbillrussell ID is 78568 password is nickcollison. 

dollarbillrussell
dollarbillrussell 5pts

 @CLthunderfan Keeps telling me the password is incorrect

dollarbillrussell
dollarbillrussell 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @CLthunderfan Got it. Thanks brodie

CLthunderfan
CLthunderfan 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @dollarbillrussell password is nick collison. put a space between nick and collison. 

El Prez
El Prez 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

They have a nice mixture of talent, role players and attitudes. LeBron, Wade and Bosh obviously are talented. Chalmers won a national championship at Kansas and MVP in the tourney. Battier won a national championship at Duke in 2001 and was NPOTY. Ray Allen is possibly the best pure shooter the game has ever seen.. Haslem, Anthony and Birdman give them just enough interior toughness. Coles, Miller and Lewis if needed. They have a really nice mixture. We have a nice team as well, but just not enough veteran savvy from our top three of KD, Russ and Serge versus their top three of LeBron, Wade and Bosh. Plus...their No. 4 and No. 5 players....Battier and Chalmers have won everything there's out there to win at both levels of play, while Kevin Martin and Thabo, while both good players...have not done these things in their careers to date. We have a nice team, Miami is on the cusp of defining itself as a great team.

RWolverine
RWolverine 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @El Prez and they have a plenty of a BS stat that I made up to bolster my cred

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

The heat's current run if i could attribute a make up would be, 60% talent 40% coaching. I find it impressive cause it's the best streak in the modern era.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

I love Royce but this article has me smh.  The Perkins stuff notwithstanding, how about this:

 

"Martin’s slowly being weened out it seems. The team is becoming more and more Durant and Westbrook focused, with Martin almost an offensive afterthought. It’s kind of weird, right? Here’s a thing about it though: Martin’s shot attempts haven’t exactly slipped much. He’s still taking almost 10 a game."

 

He's being weened out but he's taking the same number of shots.  Makes sense.

 

On Thabo:

 

"Thabo is headed for a second consecutive year of better than 40 percent shooting from 3. I don’t think he gets near enough recognition for this."

 

Royce says as he proceeds to rank Thabo 8th place.

 

BallSoHard
BallSoHard 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@FF_pickups you should write your own power rankings article and post it

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @BallSoHard  For the year:

1) KD

2) Westbrook

3) Ibaka

4) Sefolosha

5) Collison

6) RJax

7) Thabeet

8) KMart

9) Perkins

10) Fisher

11) PJ3

Sustainable Parameters
Sustainable Parameters 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored]  @FF_pickups  @BallSoHard

 a little? Single digits points in approximately 25% of games is more than a slump, it's a full fledged trend

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Lost Ones  That's fair.  I think you are undervaluing Collison a bit.  He produces without using possessions, which means more possessions for KD and Westbrook.  But I think your list is fair.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored]  @FF_pickups I'd have him 5th

 

KD

Westbrook

Serge

Thabo

Martin

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups If he played like he did the first two months for the whole season I'd have him fourth easily.

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups Martin was smoking the first two months.  64% TS or something nuts like that.  That's a big weapon in the playoffs if he can come close to it.  He's in a huge slump at the moment that he has to get through.  Defensively of course he sucks but I think our offense will need him in the game against some teams that choose to load up on Durant / Westbrook.  Playing him with Fisher and Jackson at the same time is bad tactically.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored] He was a lot better at first, for sure.  I would have had him ranked 6th.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @[censored]  @FF_pickups I agree if he shoots like he did in the beginning it makes up for some of his issues. but fisher playing next to him makes it harder to justify him struggling in any capacity on defense.

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups If he shoots like he is since the ASB that would be extremely disappointing.

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups If he shoots like he did the first couple months of the season I think it makes up for it.  Hopefully we see that Kevin Martin in the playoffs.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @[censored]  Right but he doesn't defend, rebound or pass.  That means all you get from him is shooting and he's good at shooting but he's not good enough that he can just literally not do anything else on the court. 

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @FF_pickups  @BallSoHard Martin is still > 60% TS on 20+ USG which is not a common thing.  For the season he's been as advertised as a scorer for the most part, he just had a hot start and has slumped a little since.  

 

http://bkref.com/tiny/0TOb4

BallSoHard
BallSoHard 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@FF_pickups Ah, so it's all relative

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored]  @FF_pickups  @BallSoHard thabo was better then collison at least.. probably still subjective though

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @BallSoHard  "Thabeet and RJax ahead of KMart for the year? I'm guessing this is just from a disappointment factor..."

 

No, it's from a high usage, low production standpoint coupled with poor D.

 

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @[censored]  I'm not saying the list is 'wrong', I am saying that the comments that he made need improvement, imo.

BallSoHard
BallSoHard 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

@FF_pickups Thabeet and RJax ahead of KMart for the year? I'm guessing this is just from a disappointment factor...

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @FF_pickups  @BallSoHard Aren't' these rankings done on a week to week basis?  Thabo was 1-6 from 3 point range in the week and didn't do all that much from what I saw.  Nothing wrong with Royce putting him eighth.

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @FF_pickups I thought martin was talking more shots lately maybe im just confused. he's just missing a shit ton now

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones I just looked it up, you are right.  KMart is shooting more now than before per minute. 

 

First 2 months 12.5 shots/36 minutes 45.3% from 3

Last 2 months 13.7 shots/36 minutes 39.4% from 3

 

He's playing less minutes though.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored]  I didn't say he was Ray Allen at KMart's age, lol.  That's different. He's Ray Allen right now.

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups  @Lost Ones Ray Allen at Kevin Martin's age?  Hell yeah I do.  LOL.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Lost Ones  I totally agree with you.  I think people have been telling him he needs to start creating and being more aggressive and take over the James Harden role.  But I have news for him, he's not James Harden.  He's Ray Allen, he's JJ Redick.  Do you want those guys creating shots for themselves?

Lost Ones
Lost Ones 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @[censored]  @FF_pickups he's taking terrible shots imo, in the beginning of the season he was more careful on picking his spots. now he seems to want to score in multiple defenders faces.

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @FF_pickups Martin's USG first 32 games: 21.0%   Last 33 games: 21.4%.  An increase but pretty negligible IMO.  If I had to guess I would think he's shooting more and getting to the line less which evens out the increase in FGA a bit.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored] I was doing a first 2 months/last two months split because that is what Royce did in the article, you are doing asg split.  The former equates to 32/33 split and the latter is 45/14 so that could be the source of the discrepancy.

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups BBR.  He's probably shooting more and getting to the line less.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored]  I don't know how you are calculating usage rate but he's taking more shots per minute. 

[coke head]
[coke head] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups  @Lost Ones Martin's USG% since the ASB is 21.2% - about his season average.  He's been consistent with that.  His TS% since the ASB is 56.3%, way lower than his season average.  So he's just been less efficient.

Trackbacks

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