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Tuesday Bolts – 3.12.13

by Royce Young on March 12, 2013 at 10:05 am 347 Comments

BoltsLogoNew1Read Matt Moore of CBSSports.com’s terrific feature on Scott Brooks: “Surely, the biggest cause of Durant’s liftoff was his own talent and work ethic. But sometimes the best of potential goes awry. You have to put the team around him, and you have to work with him to improve. That’s where Brooks comes in. Brooks is rarely talked about for his development chops, as if the Thunder just sprung up from the ground without cultivation. But turning good players into great is a process. Brooks is quick to acknowledge that turning these players into a Finals contender took a lot of work. He’s just not willing to take any credit for it.”

Neil Paine of ESPN Insider on KD’s ring chances: “Theoretically, Durant would be in his prime, just as James is now. By then, James should be in clear decline in his age-33 season, and there’s no guarantee Wade or Bosh will have anything left by then, nor whether James still would be playing with them. Fact is, that sweet spot could come even earlier if things break right for Durant and wrong for James. Having said that, James has such a huge edge on Durant and everyone else productionwise that he could lose 15 percent of his value and still be ahead of Durant. That means we shouldn’t be surprised if the first decade or more of Durant’s career plays out in parallel against James’, with LeBron getting the better of him in terms of ring count simply because he continues to be the game’s most dominant player. In some sports, there’s no shame in being second-best because sometimes you even get lucky and win anyway. Unfortunately for Durant, basketball just isn’t one of those sports.”

From Elias: “Russell Westbrook took 27 shots on Monday while Kevin Durant only attempted 13. Westbrook (18.8) is attempting more field goals per game than Durant (17.9). Only once in NBA history has a teammate attempted more field goals per game than a scoring a champion (Durant currently leads league in scoring). Neil Johnston of the Philadelphia Warriors won the 1954-55 scoring title, but his teammate Paul Arizin attempted two more shots per game than him that season.”

I wrote the Daily Dime for ESPN.com last night.

Great note from Darnell Mayberry: “There was a moment of extraordinary growth seen between Durant and Westbrook, one that anyone who questions the relationship of the two All-Stars should have seen. And it centered on the controversial topic of shot selection and ball distribution between the two. With 7 1/2 minutes remaining in the third quarter, Westbrook led a fast break with Sefolosha on his right and Durant to his left. Westbrook over-dribbled a bit and finally dished to Sefolosha. Durant threw up his hands and threw one of those 5-year-old fits he likes to give. Sefolosha missed a corner 3, but Westbrook corralled the rebound and nailed a 17-footer. The Spurs immediately called a timeout. Just before reaching the bench, Westbrook and Durant stopped in front of the scorer’s table and talked about that possession, specifically why Westbrook didn’t give it up. The brief exchange was filled with what appeared to be both positive dialogue and body language, Westbrook motioning with two fingers from his eyes to Durant and back, and Durant slapping Westbrook on the chest as if to say “it’s all good.” It was a classic moment that those that like to trumpet the Avon-Stringer Bell narrative never seem to see.”

Rob Mahoney of SI.com: “That isn’t the kind of mark that would doom the Thunder in itself, but with no other player stepping up to carry the scoring burden, OKC left itself vulnerable to a brutal run when those transition, second-chance, and free-throw opportunities dried up. And inevitably, they did. The Spurs used sizable offensive runs in the mid-second and early-fourth quarters to close a gap and, later, bulk up their lead, in part because the Thunder’s supplementary scoring vanished in an instant. Typically, Durant and Westbrook alone are enough to guarantee quality possessions and high-value shot attempts. But on Monday night, neither star could provide the spark that OKC needed to sustain itself. The Thunder were still able to linger on the game’s margins and claw back to make the final score respectable, but the Spurs guarded well, good shots bounced the other way and an offensive juggernaut was reduced to a cast of hopeful jump-shooters.”

Russell Westbrook is on the cover of Complex Magazine.

And here’s a taste of the cover story: “Another benefit of his svelte body type is that he can wear garment samples—a serious advantage if you hope to get free clothes. “I can fit into almost everything off the rack,” Westbrook says. He wouldn’t look out of place on the runway, and he says he’s considered modeling in the off-season. Like many celebrities, Westbrook has also thought about starting his own line. He talks about button-down shirts with zip-off sleeves and creating his own all-over print. He wants to make women’s wear, men’s wear, and even try his hand at children’s clothing. The only rule? “It’d have to be something that catches your eye.” Of course. Russell Westbrook, basketball star becomes Russell Westbrook, fashion designer? Why not?”

Kelly Dwyer of BDL on Westbrook’s halfcourt shot: “And, most importantly, there weren’t many among us that watched last night’s Spurs victory over the Thunder without reflecting back on the time Oklahoma City took four games in a row from San Antonio to close out the Western conference finals last spring. It’s true that the Spurs’ rotation has improved significantly since then, but it’s still San Antonio that has something to prove this spring. At least when it comes to this matchup. Was it a dumb shot? Yeah. But you know it came from a smart basketball mind. This is a player that is attempting old man tricks at age 24. That’s nearly as impressive as an airball from 45 feet with 18 seconds left on the shot clock is funny.”

Check this email I got last night: “Hello! My husband and I are fans of the Thunders but we have some major concerns that bother us when watching the Thunders. First, we get so mad when the Thunders coach take KD, WESTBROOK, IBAKA out the game when Thunders are losing. This behavior has been going on since the Thunders have had this team. In other words, why do the coach take the main players out the game? He does that every game set the main players down, he need to change his game strategy ASAP BEFORE PLAY-OFF START. My family are coming to one of the game and we need to talk to the coach. I am in leadership and I need to talk to him because he is the leader of the Thunder Team. He has to stop the way he coaches is not a good look. Give me a call or email me if anyone want to response to my email. Concern Oklahoma Fans, THE JOHNSON FAMILY.”

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Thunder S
Thunder S 5pts

http://blog.newsok.com/berrytramel/2013/03/12/oklahoma-city-thunder-why-derek-fisher/

 

good article. fisher-martin in the backcourt is the matador defense. 

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

Stray stat observations I posted elsewhere that includes items on thunder and key contenders:

 

Knicks get almost half their points off 3 point shots and free throws combined, the most in the NBA. Rockets a close second then a gap back to the 3rd place Lakers. Thunder 5th highest, Heat 11th, Spurs 12th. Celtics 24th. Grizzlies last place at barely 1/3rd of their points. 76ers highest in total mid-range shots to date. About 225% of the lowest team, the Rockets. Celtics 4th highest. Lakers 6th lowest total mid-rangers. Heat 10th lowest. Thunder just slightly below league average.

 

The Heat are by far the best performing team on +/- per minute for last 5 minutes of game by a margin of more than 2-1 over 2nd best (Bucks). Spurs 9th, Thunder 10th. Griz 3rd, Pacers 6th. Nuggets 6th, Bulls 8th. Of course behavior in and quantity of blowout situations may vary and may affect the results but this seems like a really strong plus for the Heat. Spurs now have best lineup used more than 250 minutes. http://www.basketball-reference.com/pla ... r_by_asc=N Miami has 2nd and third. Most of the top contenders have a lineup in the top 10. Thunder at 5th. Chicago with a 14th place. NYK and Celtics have no lineup used over 250 minutes. Celtics have no lineup much above +4 per 100 possessions used over 50 minutes.

calebli
calebli 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

If you guys haven't seen this, this pretty much sums up the game:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/plus-minus/201303110SAS.html

 

Please join this facebook group!

http://www.facebook.com/firescottbrooks

Blood-Game
Blood-Game 5pts

http://dailythunder.com/2013/03/five-leftovers-from-the-schooling-in-san-antonio/

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts

What is the Thunder's record vs. +.500 teams this year?

 

I don't know where to find it.

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Hogshit Bry Bry 35-21

 

http://www.hoopsstats.com/basketball/fantasy/nba/oklahoma-city-thunder/team/stats/13/21/1

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Hogshit Bry Bry Correction: 35 games and a record of 21-14.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Crow  @Hogshit Bry Bry The Thunder are only 6-7 against teams with at least .650 winning. 41-10 against everyone else.

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Crow Thanks Crow. Bookmarked.

Crow
Crow 5pts

 @Hogshit Bry Bry You may also have interest in this one:

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/sagarin/nba1213.htm

SoCal Thunder
SoCal Thunder 5pts

I heard rumors that THE JOHNSON FAMILY is THABEET's American foster family lol 

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @SoCal Thunder lol

Air Bud
Air Bud 5pts

- Tournament Bracket -

"The Most Hated College Basketball Players of the Last 30 Years" Grantland.

http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2013/0310/grant_bracket_hatedplayersRd1.jpg

#1 Seeds = Christian Laettner, Jalen Rose, Tyler Hansbrough, Patrick Ewing.

Crow
Crow 5pts

 @Skyline People still to this very day wear 'I hate Laettner" shirts in KY.

Crow
Crow 5pts

 @Skyline Based on 20 year old basketball memories. Though I guess some people hate him for his failure to pay large real estate obligations in recent years.

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

A very favorable projection of  / prediction for  Jeremy Lamb

http://asubstituteforwar.wordpress.com/2013/03/12/why-i-believe-jeremy-lamb-will-be-a-superstar/

DXL
DXL 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 3 Like

 @Crow I've watched a lot of draft prospects play in the D-league but no one's show me more than Lamb. By the eye test Lamb looks like a star.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Crow Read that article and then add to the last line of it, "...and Scott Brooks is playing Derek Fisher over him."

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts

 @Crow I don't really blame anyone for this because Martin was the obvious choice to come in and contribute right away... but in hindsight I wish we had played Lamb a LOT more to integrate him before the playoffs.

Sigmund
Sigmund 5pts

 @Hogshit Bry Bry  @Crow Martin is obviously better player, but one thing which bother me is that Lamb is proven big stage performer while I'm not sure if Martin is ready for prime time.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @Sigmund " Martin is obviously better player,"

 

Maybe but that isn't the question to me.  To me, the question is what is better, Martin and Fisher or Lamb and Matrix

Sigmund
Sigmund 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Hogshit Bry Bry  @Crow It's too late now, that should've been done since day 1. Maybe it would have happened if he was there for training camp. I've heard he was lightning them up in practice lately.

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 4 Like

 @Sigmund  @Crow Here's my thing, if we really wanted to play with three guards, I'd much rather have Lamb than Fisher.

 

I know Lamb is probably still a defensive liability, but he would totally be getting right about now if he had played more minutes.

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Sigmund  @Hogshit Bry Bry He was / might could still be a more forceful scorer if need arises in the playoffs. I wonder if he will try to drive more. But he has to get a pass first.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Crow The most impressive thing in that was his court vision.  That's something that players don't usually get until their mid 20's.  Two off the dribble deep threes was also very impressive.

okcjim
okcjim 5pts

 @FF_pickups  @CrowOffense has never been his problem.  The only thing holding him back has been his defense (which is what should be holding Fisher back but isn't).  He was awful at the first of the year but has improved as the year has gone on.  If he could gain about 10-15 pounds I think it would go a long way in helping him stay in front of guys and in getting to the hole.

 

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @Crow  Doesn't RAPM need 3 years of data to be stable though?

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups  @okcjim One currently available version of RAPM https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AqnFn6ok911sdE1nNXNuUzFhZmFBbmU1UVBST2Vsd2c&usp=sharing#gid=0 has Lamb is modestly negative on defensive impact but far better than Martin. Martin far better estimated impact on offense and overall.

Sigmund
Sigmund 5pts

 @El Prez Waiters and Beal are having pretty bad rookie season overall, but they've been playing well lately(Waiters since February -  15.3 PPG on 49.4 FG%; Beal since February - 18.3 PPG on 48.2%). Lamb is obviously more skilled and superior offensive player than both of them.

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts

 @El Prez Now that would be sweet

El Prez
El Prez 5pts

Please provide us with the visual link which proves tangible improvement against live NBA level competition. I don't want Fisher playing heavy minutes either, but no way is Jeremy Lamb ready unless the NBA starts putting guys in the penalty box and Jeremy can be a winger on the power play unit.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @okcjim  @Crow "The only thing holding him back has been his defense"

 

But he's certainly as good of a defender as KMart, right?  He should have squeezed minutes and worked on his game.  I would've traded KMart and the Dallas pick back to Dallas for Matrix and brought Lamb in to replace KMart.  We'd be a lot better then and still be about the same in terms of cap.

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Crow This was posted a bit earlier, but yeah, interesting.

 

All those shots in that highlight video are contested mid-range jumpers.... which to me is what separates great scorers from good scorers. If you can hit contested mid-range shots off the bounce at a steady rate, you've already established the hardest part of being a Jordan triple threat.

Crow
Crow 5pts

 @Hogshit Bry Bry Sorry of the double post. My awareness of what has been posted is much more limited these days due to time constraints.

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Crow Always worth posting again to be sure.... and there was nobody around earlier anyway

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @Crow  Thanks for posting it, I didn't see it earlier!

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Hogshit Bry Bry  @Crow Just wish he'd make more threes.

Sigmund
Sigmund 5pts

 @PKBOB  @FF_pickups He is 3rd best 3PT shooter on the team. Actually it might be pretty close between Martin and Lamb...Martins 3pt% is heavily relied on corner threes.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @Sigmund I know, but your statement begged the implication that you were saying he is the best 3pt shooter. In any case, I am all for him getting the opportunity to prove himself further at the NBA level.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @FF_pickups Not saying he doesn't deserve the opportunity. But the claim that he has the best 3pt% in NBA history in itself is a hyperbole even if you can back it up with the limited statistics that he has.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @PKBOB  "that's what you call statistical manipulation is you're going to claim he has the best 3pt% in NBA history."

 

sure but you can't say that he hasn't earned a chance.  So far, he's been phenomenal.  Then when you tack on the upside, how can anyone justify him not getting more opportunity this year?

El Prez
El Prez 5pts

He's primarily playing against D League players in which there is an already diluted NBA. I read the piece referenced by Dr. M. He made the comparison to James Worthy. A bit of stretch I'd say. James Worthy was I believe the No. 1 player taken in that draft, averaged 13.4 ppg 'in the NBA' his rookie season, shot .579 from the field and made the All Rookie First Team. Jeremy may or may not pan out as an offensive role player, but I'd very much not be holding my breath for next season.

Sigmund
Sigmund 5pts

 @PKBOB He does have the best 3pt%, doesn't mean he is the best 3pt shooter.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @Sigmund  that's what you call statistical manipulation is you're going to claim he has the best 3pt% in NBA history.

okcjim
okcjim 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored]  @Hogshit Bry Bry  @CrowBetween OKC and Tulsa he has shot 38% from 3 and 44% overall.  That's not bad for a rookie year.  His shooting percentage was awful his first few games at Tulsa too.  He was a chucking machine.  It's been much better the 2nd half of the year.  Over 40% from 3. 

 

Sigmund
Sigmund 5pts

@[censored]@Hogshit Bry Bry@Crow

http://bkref.com/tiny/brrXX Best 3pt% in NBA history not good enough for justin. He is better shooter than Harden BTW.

 

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @Crow The author is DrMufasa from the RealGM  boards, very active in draft community there and fairly well respected.

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 2 Like

 @[censored] I guess I am positive about him too but the depth of my conviction is not anywhere near as strong or as high. I just don't know enough yet.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

A reporter asked Scott Brooks a few weeks ago "Why don't you play small more, your /- numbers are off the charts."

Scott Brooks replied, "We have to win with our screen setting, defense, toughness and rebounding."

 

Cut to 3 weeks later and Derek Fisher signing our death warrant.  Scotty flip flops faster than a 1980's televangelist in a strip club.  He has no idea what he's doing, he's a monkey hitting buttons.

Crow
Crow 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups Most coaches do seem to err on the side of being too rigid in their strategy and tactics.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @Crow I agree.  But great coaches are more flexible.  They reinvent their teams, look at Popovich now vs. 10 years ago.  Look at Belichick now vs. 10 years ago.  Look at Riley Lakers vs. Knicks.  The list goes on and on.

Crow
Crow 5pts

 @Hogshit Bry Bry  @FF_pickups Not sure how much credit he should get for their recent better performance. I tend to think not much but that might be overly negative.

Bry Bry
Bry Bry 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups  @Crow Meanwhile D'Antoni is trying to shoehorn four allstars into his stupid system. I'm so glad we don't have him as a coach.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups Button "mashing" coach.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName like.author.displayName 7 Like

 @PKBOB  @FF_pickups Brooks is the 12 year old kid kicking your ass at Tekken in the arcade with Eddie Gordo?

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @[censored] Good point on the management. This team doesn't have the look of self-destructing but many people on here appear to think we do every single time we lose a game.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @PKBOB Our management is waaaaaaaay better than 90's Sonics.  I don't see the team self-destructing.  Consider if the Sonics stayed together through Jordan's retirement and Kemp didn't go bananas.  They'd have won a ring, IMO.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @[censored]  I said it in previous threads, but one of my fears was this team turning into the Sonics of the 90's. I know they're not the same type of team, but fast forward this team 5+ years and we'll see where they end up.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @PKBOB  @FF_pickups Maybe.  The talent has definitely plateau'd or is close to it.  That's the hardest part, getting over that last hump.  Is this team 'good enough' to win a Finals?  I believe it is.  It'd suck to be the Utah to Miami's Chicago but it might just be that way.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @PKBOB  I think he can build a fast car but he can't drive fast.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @FF_pickups  One of the best motivating coaches by far I think. He could get those guys to play hard night in and night out for sure.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @[censored]  @FF_pickups Do you think he has hit a plateau in his coaching ability?

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups For one, I don't think ti's possible to have a team as good as ours without a good coach / coaching staff.  This team is one of the Top 40 offenses ever and one of the best MOV ever.  That doesn't just 'happen', IMO.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @PKBOB  @[censored] "For the record, I think Scott is a good coach. I am just not sure if he's the "right" coach for this team to take it all the way."

 

If I was Charlotte or Washington, I would be fighting like crazy to sign Scott Brooks.  He'd be awesome for those teams.

[censored]
[censored] 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @FF_pickups I give him more credit than you do but he does have annoying tendencies.  

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @[censored]  For the record, I think Scott is a good coach. I am just not sure if he's the "right" coach for this team to take it all the way.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts like.author.displayName 1 Like

 @[censored] He's the guy who plays Blanka or Chun Li and just hits those buttons so fast.

PKBOB
PKBOB 5pts

 @[censored]  @FF_pickups I hated that 12 year old kid kicking my butt at tekken.

FF_pickups
FF_pickups 5pts

 @[censored]  EXACTLY!

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