A lot can change in a year

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Where were you at in your life a year ago?

Where are you at in your life now, and where will you be a year from now? Two years from now? Where do you see yourself in five years?

(Two paragraphs into this thing and it sounds like the worst job interview ever.)

Now, would you like to make any definitive statements about your future? Statements that folks will come back and attempt to hold against you at a later date?

A year ago, LaMarcus Aldridge professed his desire to finish his career with the Portland Trailblazers. “I want to be the best Blazer — ever,” Aldridge told Joe Freeman of the Oregonian. “This city has embraced me and grown with me. I have so much history, it just makes sense to stay.”

Aldridge told Freeman that he was happy with the direction the team was headed. “This has no impact on my interest in staying in Portland. I just want to get a five-year deal. I feel like that’s the best decision on my part,” said Aldridge.

This is the same LaMarcus Aldridge that will sign a four-year deal with the San Antonio Spurs on or shortly after July 9.

This isn’t an attempt to bash Aldridge or besmirch his good name. Everyone has a right to change their mind. He’s far from the first pro athlete to make definitive statements and then fail to follow through on them. Sure, Aldridge could have lied through his teeth a year ago in an attempt to quell the questions about his future*. Perhaps Aldridge was being honest and something changed since then, such as his relationship with co-star Damian Lillard.

* After all, a year before THAT, Aldridge reportedly asked for/demanded a trade.

Or maybe Aldridge just never imagined an opportunity opening up for him like it did in San Antonio.

We as fans and media spend a lot of time forecasting everything we can about the game. The reality is that our analyses and forecasts are akin to weather forecasts: the further out you go, the more likely you are to be wrong.

Sometimes it’s pretty straightforward. We can see plain as day what the Wizards, Rockets and Heat plan to do come this time next year. We’ve known for some time that the likes of the Knicks, Lakers and Mavericks carefully planned to be players in free agency this summer. Yet how many people saw the Spurs as a legitimate landing spot for Aldridge a year ago? And how many people realize that the Warriors are one simple salary dump away** from being a major free agent player next summer?

** As of this writing, the Warriors could open up maximum salary cap room by moving Andrew Bogut or Andre Iguodala to a team under the salary cap, and they could wait and do it after the season. This also assumes the Warriors don’t agree to extensions with Harrison Barnes or Festus Ezeli.

The whole point of this exercise is to tie it back to the Thunder. Spoiler alert – Kevin Durant will be a free agent next summer. Russell Westbrook and Serge Ibaka are up a year after that. Anxiety will be through the roof around these parts until they decide their futures, at which point we will all fall back to our usual elevated levels regardless of whether they re-sign or bolt.

We’d all feel better if any/all three would just pledge their commitment to Oklahoma City rightthisverysecond. But as we’ve seen with Aldridge, would it matter if they did?

Durant, in particular, has gone out of his way to praise our fine city and the Thunder organization at every given opportunity. He’s given nary a hint of unhappiness, despite all attempts by some on the outside to manufacture it (y’know, James Harden something something). All signs pointing to an extended stay in Oklahoma City look good, especially when he’s posting Instagram praises of Westbrook out of the blue (which Russ re-shared, incidentally). It never hurts when Durant shows up at summer league and Oklahoma City Blue games to support his teammates. But Durant has always stopped short of making definitive statements about his future, which is smart.

Actions, as always, speak louder than words. Aldridge didn’t sign an extension with the Blazers a year ago, and one reason is because the 2011 CBA made veteran extensions unappealing for the majority of star players. Veteran players – i.e. those on non-rookie scale contracts – can extend their contracts, but only up to a total of four seasons (counting any existing seasons remaining on their current deals). The first-year salary can be no more than 107.5% of the salary in the last season of the current contract, not to exceed the maximum salary. In order for a player to get their full earning potential, he has to become a free agent. That cracks open a door just enough for another team to get its foot in the door.

The final season of Durant’s contract will pay him a little over $20.1 million. If he were to sign an extension right now, his salary in 2016-17 would be $21.67 million. It’d mean leaving money on the table. If the salary cap indeed jumps to, say, $90 million in the summer of 2016, Durant could earn more than $25 million by entering free agency. It’s possible he could earn even more if he were to re-enter free agency in 2017 (at the same time as Westbrook and Ibaka… where’s my Maalox?). The salary cap could take another leap into the $108 million range, and Durant would be eligible for a higher maximum salary as a 10-year veteran***.

*** It’s best to take any 2017 predictions with a Yao Ming-sized grain of salt. The National Basketball Players Association is almost certain to opt out of the current CBA at that time. The current system could be simply re-engineered or drastically re-designed from the ground up.

Of course, this assumes Durant would try to collect every dime he’s entitled to. He absolutely should if he wishes to do so. The reality is that taking year-by-year risks à la LeBron James isn’t all that enticing to every superstar. Despite predictions of many short-term deals this summer, Aldridge, Kawhi Leonard and Kevin Love all snapped up 4 or 5 years of guaranteed big money security. Durant could choose to accept a long-term offer, potentially a 5-year deal worth around $145 million, and get back to work.

But that answer won’t come any time soon for any of the Thunder’s Big Three, unfortunately.