Five questions on what Kevin Durant’s injury means

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So…

Kevin Durant is out at least the first month of the season and most likely, will return sometime in early December because something called a Jones fracture. While apparently is NOT an injury caused by Perry Jones having to step in and play. Because right now, I’m feeling like I’ve got a major Jones fracture worrying about PJIII starting.

The Thunder dealt with a similar situation last October with Russell Westbrook unexpectedly undergoing a scope on his knee a few days before the season. But this is different, because it’s KD. And it’s a little bit scarier. The Thunder will have to manage and discover how to play without their offensive focal point, primarily in crunchtime. There about 500 questions worth asking. Here are five:

1. What are the long-term implications? IS KEVIN DURANT GOING TO BE OKAY?

Maybe the first question should be, “What the eff word is a Jones fracture?” It’s a broken bone at the base of the small toe. Sam Presti said Sunday it’s a stress fracture, meaning an injury that “happened over time.” So it’s not that Durant popped his toe wrong or stubbed it getting out of bed on Saturday. He didn’t hurt it against the Mavs. It’s just an injury that built up because of wear and tear.

I know you’re thinking, “Stupid Scott Brooks playing him too many minutes!” but that’s not necessarily the explanation either. Yes, Durant has played more minutes than anyone else in the league since 2007, and that’s not counting the playoffs and all his service to USA Basketball. You can get one of these fractures any time, anywhere. There’s no way to directly relate it to Durant’s workload, though presumptively, it’s hard not to wonder.

Presti said Jones fractures are the “most common surgical procedure performed on NBA players as of late,” which blew my mind considering Google definitely saw an all-time high for “Jones fracture” today. But it’s apparently a very common injury that is well understood and not career-threatening in any way. Some have noted that a Jones fracture is the same injury Yao Ming had in 2006 that ended his season. Two things about that: 1) Yao suffered the injury April 10, and 2) it was an impact injury for Yao, not a stress issue like Durant’s is. So they’re really not comparable.

A lot of Twitter doctors are throwing out their prognoses, but here’s the deal: Everyone heals their own way and nobody really knows. That can be scary, or encouraging. Any talk of this threatening Durant’s explosiveness or nagging him later on are completely unfounded. I remember there was so much noise about Westbrook’s second scope and whether or not he’d ever be the same. He wasn’t. Because he came back better.

2. Can the Thunder survive November?

My takeaway from Presti’s availability today was optimism. I shouldn’t be completely shocked by incredible amounts of Thunder Spin, but Presti did make a good point: This is an injury in October. Not April. Not May. For once, the Thunder are dealing with a significant injury before the season starts (yes, I know Westbrook had surgery last October…) and can easily recover from it. They may lose a bunch of games to start the season as they figure some stuff out, and it certainly doesn’t help their schedule is damn hard the first two weeks, but the Thunder are going to win some games.

Who knows, maybe this is a chance to break in that developing depth and let a few of those young guys breathe. Nobody is coming close to replicating Durant’s production, but if the long game of this is Jeremy Lamb, Reggie Jackson, Anthony Morrow and Perry Jones all fit a little bit better and have a little more confidence, then you won’t care much about it come April.

So much of the forthcoming problem, I’m guessing, will be in how the Thunder play in close games. Westbrook might try and monopolize the offense, doing way too much on his own. Or I could even see him go the other way and try and trust his teammates a bit too much just to make sure he’s being inclusive. The Thunder will be good enough still to beat (most) the teams they should, particularly at home. The road toss-ups probably won’t go their way. Looking through the November schedule, I’d say best case scenario the Thunder go 12-5 through November. Worst case, 8-9. And reasonably, 10-7.

Remember: A Thunder team without both Westbrook and Durant went into Boston and got a win last season. And they also won 59 games despite Westbrook missing almost half the season. They’re going to keep their heads above water, the worry is if this November might come back to haunt them as they chase the Spurs in April.

3. Who starts now?

That’s a really, really interesting question. On the surface, just throw in Perry Jones, who is supposed to be Durant’s de facto backup, and roll with it. But that leaves the Thunder’s starting five definitively listless, with Westbrook and Ibaka shoulder almost all of the offensive load. You could go with Reggie Jackson at shooting guard and bump Andre Roberson up to small forward. But that lightens the bench severely and leaves a whole lot of responsibility to Lamb to carry the load, which is scary if you watched summer league and the preseason thus far.

My guess is Anthony Morrow gets the job at shooting guard as Roberson slides in at small forward. That gives the Thunder an offensive threat on the wing to draw eyeballs as Westbrook attacks and still leaves a decent bench in place. All the options have their downsides and limited pluses. There’s no way to replicate a Durant-less starting five, so Brooks probably shouldn’t even try. Get creative and sort out a lineup that optimizes the Westbrook-Ibaka two-man game, while staggering in Jackson and Westbrook as a two-headed backcourt attack.

4. What is Russ gonna do?

No, really. WHAT IS RUSS GONNA DO?

I wrote about this being Westbrook’s chance to run the show for the Thunder, and how that might look. The early outlook: Terrifying, exciting, horrifying, enthralling, petrifying, exhilarating. The Thunder are probably going to go insane for a month and I’m not sure it’s going to be good or bad. Probably both.

The Thunder haven’t played much at all with Westbrook and without Durant. The last five seasons, the Thunder have had just five games where that happened, and one of them was in the 2013 season finale where Westbrook started just to preserve his consecutive games streak. In the four games — all in 2010-11 — the Thunder went 3-1 as Westbrook averaged 26.7 points, 7.0 assists and took 22.5 shots per game. But reminder: That Thunder group had James Harden. But also a less good Serge Ibaka, and Westbrook has improved a lot, so maybe it balances out.

Westbrook played only 41 minutes last season without Durant on the floor with him and in that time the stats get weird. OKC scored 125.2 points per 100 and allowed just 98.6, for a splendid net rating of 26.6. Though Westbrook had a usage rate of 47.5 percent (WHOA) and scored 41.8 percent of the Thunder’s points. Again, the sample size skews things a bit so it’s hard to draw much, but regardless, that’s eye-catching stuff.

The fear is that Westbrook will try and shoulder too much of the burden. He tends to do that already, but with Durant out, he may feel the responsibility to either win or lose games night to night. He just has to play, and play free. He already gives no effs about stealing shots from Durant, so I can’t imagine him holding back or changing too awful much. Difference is now, Brooks can’t stand over on the bench calling Durant’s number in order to take away a possession or two from a flailing Westbrook. And in crunchtime, who can the Thunder actively rely on other than Westbrook?

Westbrook is a one-of-a-kind player. We all know what he’s capable of, and what happens when he tries way, way, way too hard. He plays point guard unlike any other, bringing a blend of physicality, power and athleticism unlike we’ve ever seen. He’s basically a 6-foot-3 LeBron, if LeBron snorted that powder instead of throwing it into the air. But Bad Russ comes out when he tries too hard. Good Russ is when he finds the right rhythm and balance between insane and aggressive. If he can toe the line, he could put up five triple-doubles in November and average something like 25-8-8. If not, he’ll shoot under 35 percent and turn it over six times a game. I’m not sure there’s an in-between.

It says maybe everything you need to know about Russell Westbrook that the Thunder may actually be more interesting right now without the league’s MVP.

5. All that said, doesn’t this totally suck?

Yes. Yes, it most certainly does.